Post-Game Talk: NHL Draft - Day 2 - Part II

[ChuckSurette]

I think we generally get caught up in "who they passed" too much over who they actually picked. I think thats a good draft haul, but again it's mostly the same type player. Forward wise, zero high end skill other than Studnicka who seems to have a top 6 feel about him.


Trading Lindgren was a mistake. Never would have thought it at the time, but he and Adam Fox were quite the pair. He is tough as nails and pretty positionally sound. I would trade any of our LHD prospects for him at this moment.

Lindgren looks pretty solid. Played pretty tough against his former team. I don't think he's on Marchy's Christmas card list though...

 

[member 96824]

But again the difference in success rates between pick 58 and 100 is negligible.

You said this what felt like 30 times yesterday so I did some research.

I’d like to know where you found the difference negligible(or why you used 100). Please respond with sources.

The two expected value reports I found based on games played found that pick 58’s value is nearly double that of 100.

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf
By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

Beyond that, in that 17.2% of 2nd rounders will play 100 games, only 10.9% of 4th rounders will. 34% of 2nd rounders will play a game; 22% of 4th rounders.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

You kept parroting this thing thinking it sounded smart “oh no one understands statistics like I do” but never cited a source, which made me very suspicious. I use 2nd and 4th because you’re saying 58 and 100 are “negligible” in difference.

Moreso, your argument completely and entirely disregards managing the draft and the idea of opportunity cost. For someone self described as smarter than everyone else, I’m shocked both of those concepts missed you. Look at it this way, you walk into a store saying “that looks like a great TV, that’s the TV I would like in my house. I’ll give you $2k for it” without looking at the price tag. Store happily accepts, you have your TV. With a little research you find that TV only costs $1200. Maybe you personally value that TV at $2K and that’s fine, maybe you’re even right and the seller of that TV doesn’t understand what they have, but the market is making it available at $1200.

Your argument is right in that yes, you have no less of a TV...but you did not get your TV at the value you should have and it cost you the opportunity of getting your TV and an entertainment center with the same amount of budgeted dollars.

 

[member 96824]

This draft will send the Bruins backward for years. They will be lucky to make the playoffs next year and even the Habs will have a better season.

You see this Don and Cam?

YOU SEE THIS?!?

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE TO MY DEAR PAL JEAN_JACKET. YOU BROKE HIM.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

You see this Don and Cam?

YOU SEE THIS?!?

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE TO MY DEAR PAL JEAN_JACKET. YOU BROKE HIM.

If JJ is disappointed you know they f***ed up.

 

[member 96824]

1-29: Trent Frederic - I would say I'm slightly concerned about the pick. I think he's an NHLer, but I'm not sure about the upside.

It’s very worth noting that like yesterday and like 2015, Frederic a was way off the board “we’re smarter than all of these guys” pick. Some rankings had him as low as 100+ and Redline’s report(a source that LOVES guys like Frederic) had one of the most scathing profiles I’ve read about a draft prospect. Bob McKenzie’s poll of scouts landed him at 54.

It ain’t a one off thing for Donny FIGJAM, it’s a pattern with zero willingness to look in the mirror. Oh well..off to free agency where Don and the gang also make the same mistakes over and over and over again

 

[Smitty93]

I think we generally get caught up in "who they passed" too much over who they actually picked. I think thats a good draft haul, but again it's mostly the same type player. Forward wise, zero high end skill other than Studnicka who seems to have a top 6 feel about him.

Beecher is a wild card, as a vendor I speak with from work said he is going to be a Chris Kreider type LW....that sounds pretty good to me. Olson is a guy I liked when he played with Holloway and Wong in the AJHL...he had a very similar type freshman season as Holloway did.

Hall has the looks of a 4th rd gem as well.

Trading Lindgren was a mistake. Never would have thought it at the time, but he and Adam Fox were quite the pair. He is tough as nails and pretty positionally sound. I would trade any of our LHD prospects for him at this moment.

Even Studnicka wasn't a high end skill guy. The reason why they never draft those skilled players has always been obvious to me. They believe that every player has to be good defensively, or at the very least care about playing an all-around game. It's like they have this idea that you can't teach defense, which is insane. Anyway, those skilled players are generally ones who don't care as much about defense (surprise, surprise), so they couldn't possibly be Bruins.

Someone on the broadcast yesterday talked about how important it was to draft different types of players who can fill different spots on the team. The Bruins have taken the opposite approach for years. Just drafting mirror images of prospects every year. We wonder why there are still holes at certain positions. That's your answer. That, and the fact that they keep taking players that other teams clearly don't value as much, so when we talk about their inability to make trades, it all goes back to the fact that they have all these assets with no value to anyone other than the Bruins.

 

[Smitty93]

It’s very worth noting that like yesterday and like 2015, Frederic a was way off the board “we’re smarter than all of these guys” pick. Some rankings had him as low as 100+ and Redline’s report(a source that LOVES guys like Frederic) had one of the most scathing profiles I’ve read about a draft prospect. Bob McKenzie’s poll of scouts landed him at 54.

It ain’t a one off thing for Donny FIGJAM, it’s a pattern with zero willingness to look in the mirror. Oh well..off to free agency where Don and the gang also make the same mistakes over and over and over again

I don't know how people could watch Donny all these years and expect him to make some big trade or major signing this week. I'll keep saying it until I go hoarse. We're all Charlie Brown and Donny is Lucy. We somehow get suckered into believing something will change. It's like we're in an abusive relationship.

 

[TheReal13Linseman]

This draft will send the Bruins backward for years. They will be lucky to make the playoffs next year and even the Habs will have a better season.

2015 was the draft that killed us. WAY more consequential than this year’s.

 

[Bruinfanatic]

Why has the Bruins organization turned against drafting Canadians anymore.

 

[Gator Mike]

Why has the Bruins organization turned against drafting Canadians anymore.

Best guess is that they prefer the NCAA development path to the CHL.

 

[CDJ]

Frederic over DeBrincat and UV over Thomas was not very good either,

Vaak went where he was projected and 80% of the fan base would have cried about picking a midget if they picked debrincat

 

[CDJ]

You said this what felt like 30 times yesterday so I did some research.

I’d like to know where you found the difference negligible(or why you used 100). Please respond with sources.

The two expected value reports I found based on games played found that pick 58’s value is nearly double that of 100.

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf
By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

Beyond that, in that 17.2% of 2nd rounders will play 100 games, only 10.9% of 4th rounders will. 34% of 2nd rounders will play a game; 22% of 4th rounders.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

You kept parroting this thing thinking it sounded smart “oh no one understands statistics like I do” but never cited a source, which made me very suspicious. I use 2nd and 4th because you’re saying 58 and 100 are “negligible” in difference.

Moreso, your argument completely and entirely disregards managing the draft and the idea of opportunity cost. For someone self described as smarter than everyone else, I’m shocked both of those concepts missed you. Look at it this way, you walk into a store saying “that looks like a great TV, that’s the TV I would like in my house. I’ll give you $2k for it” without looking at the price tag. Store happily accepts, you have your TV. With a little research you find that TV only costs $1200. Maybe you personally value that TV at $2K and that’s fine, maybe you’re even right and the seller of that TV doesn’t understand what they have, but the market is making it available at $1200.

Your argument is right in that yes, you have no less of a TV...but you did not get your TV at the value you should have and it cost you the opportunity of getting your TV and an entertainment center with the same amount of budgeted dollars.

First off I was initially using 80 and somebody wanted me to go to 100 for some reason. Ok so using graph your own source cited about probabilities- do you look at this and think there is a big difference between pick 58 and pick 100 being impact players- because there isn’t. It’s a couple of percentage points. You might notice that’s not the case with round 1 in comparison- it’s a much larger difference. That’s because there’s usually a pool of like 30-40 players that people are pretty sure of then after that it’s a total crapshoot. Reaching at 58 is not the same as reaching at 15, not even close. So complaining about that is nonsense, especially when again- NOBODY HAS SEEN THE PLAYER


Now no shit pick 58 is more valuable than pick 100. Thats big brain stuff. Probably why you don’t see any pick 10 for pick 30 straight-up swaps. It’s just a fact that you’re very unlikely to get an impact player at either spot. So you pick people you know and you pick people you like with the right character that you think will drive them towards their ceiling

my whole point with that statement is that people are overreacting about somebody they’ve never seen because of a list that nhl teams do not give a singular f*** about in regards to a pick that is more likely than not going to be 100% inconsequential

 

[UncleRico]

It’s very worth noting that like yesterday and like 2015, Frederic a was way off the board “we’re smarter than all of these guys” pick. Some rankings had him as low as 100+ and Redline’s report(a source that LOVES guys like Frederic) had one of the most scathing profiles I’ve read about a draft prospect. Bob McKenzie’s poll of scouts landed him at 54.

It ain’t a one off thing for Donny FIGJAM, it’s a pattern with zero willingness to look in the mirror. Oh well..off to free agency where Don and the gang also make the same mistakes over and over and over again

And going into frederics draft it was well established it was a rather weak all around draft

 

[BMC]

Even Studnicka wasn't a a high end skill guy. The reason why they never draft those skilled players has always been obvious to me. They believe that every player has to be good defensively, or at the very least care about playing an all-around game. It's like they have this idea that you can't teach defense, which is insane. Anyway, those skilled players are generally ones who don't care as much about defense (surprise, surprise), so they couldn't possibly be Bruins.

Someone on the broadcast yesterday talked about how important it was to draft different types of players who can fill different spots on the team. The Bruins have taken the opposite approach for years. Just drafting mirror images of prospects every year. We wonder why there are still holes at certain positions. That's your answer. That, and the fact that they keep taking players that other teams clearly don't value as much, so when we talk about their inability to make trades, it all goes back to the fact that they have all these assets with no value to anyone other than the Bruins.

In fairness to the Bruins I think they have decided what kind of team they want and what kind of players are needed to make up that team. They have been remarkably consistent with this philosophy- they want a team that plays all 200 feet of the rink, so they're drafting players that play that game. So there's no point for them to draft a player who can't at least hold his own in his own end. IMO defense is mainly about effort not skill/talent & too many high skill offensive players can't or won't be bothered with making the effort and that (effort) is something that cannot really be taught. We've seen it here- Kessel, Spooner & Donato to name 3. All of them are gone so we see the Bruins aren't going to tolerate lack of defensive effort from anyone no matter how great their offensive skills are or might become.

Is this the right philosophy (200 foot game)? I don't know but it is the one they've chosen to go with and they expect all their players to play that way even the scorers. You're spot on about inability to make trades and over estimating the upside of their draft picks.

 

[LouJersey]

No issue if the Bruins have a type they like to draft, but they better supplement them with legit star talent the UFA way. The time is now to do that.

 

[since76]

What i can’t understand in any way is why they don’t trade their choices ???
You want players ranked 300tb and 456th so trade your choices and sign them for free ...nobody know them anyway

 

[LouJersey]

The Athletic guys trashed the Bruins, worst draft for Wheeler and D from Pronman. I keep checking Kirk's stuff to see if he will weigh in on the players.

 

[Dr Hook]

In fairness to the Bruins I think they have decided what kind of team they want and what kind of players are needed to make up that team. They have been remarkably consistent with this philosophy- they want a team that plays all 200 feet of the rink, so they're drafting players that play that game. So there's no point for them to draft a player who can't at least hold his own in his own end. IMO defense is mainly about effort not skill/talent & too many high skill offensive players can't or won't be bothered with making the effort and that (effort) is something that cannot really be taught. We've seen it here- Kessel, Spooner & Donato to name 3. All of them are gone so we see the Bruins aren't going to tolerate lack of defensive effort from anyone no matter how great their offensive skills are or might become.

Is this the right philosophy (200 foot game)? I don't know but it is the one they've chosen to go with and they expect all their players to play that way even the scorers. You're spot on about inability to make trades and over estimating the upside of their draft picks.

I would venture a guess and say that is why we have been hearing JDB's name in trade talks recently.

 

[Blowfish]

I'm willing to see how this goes down...too many folk in here upset their binkys not selected.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

If JJ is disappointed you know they f***ed up.

Not a draft expert but from the account of those that are, they again missed the mark and could have easily traded down and get extra assets if they really wanted those players.

As for next year, I was joking. Bruins will again be a top contender for the Cup and no way the lowly Habs will end up ahead of them.

1993 Forever!

 

[Baddkarma]

Lindgren looks pretty solid. Played pretty tough against his former team. I don't think he's on Marchy's Christmas card list though...

Several people around here called Lindgren a minor piece in the Nash fleecing that Gorton perpetrated on the Bruins. Meanwhile, all Lindgren does is play playoff hockey every shift. Sweeney just isn't the man for the job.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

2015 was the draft that killed us. WAY more consequential than this year’s.

It takes a good 5 years to really evaluate a draft.

So you are correct.

 

[mflo77]

Why has the Bruins organization turned against drafting Canadians anymore.

exactly what i was thinking yesterday? is it just coincidence ? i certainly hope so.

 

[mflo77]

Several people around here called Lindgren a minor piece in the Nash fleecing that Gorton perpetrated on the Bruins. Meanwhile, all Lindgren does is play playoff hockey every shift. Sweeney just isn't the man for the job.

Bruins took a shot with nash. to get a goal scorer like nash, you have to give up a prospect. it is what it is.
tampa traded high end prospects and high draft picks for blake coleman and barclay G. have to take your shot sometimes at the expense of young talent.

 

[LouJersey]

exactly what i was thinking yesterday? is it just coincidence ? i certainly hope so.

It's all Ryan Nadeau. He's been the associate director of drafting for 3 years now.