Post-Game Talk: NHL Draft - Day 2 - Part II

[CDJ]

The Athletic guys trashed the Bruins, worst draft for Wheeler and D from Pronman. I keep checking Kirk's stuff to see if he will weigh in on the players.

honestly I was expecting an F from Pronman, he must be warming up to us!

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Just to be a dick....

Kucherov was drafted with the 58th pick, why can't we do that!

We took Koko puffs at 40.

 

[Grimey]

I don't know how people could watch Donny all these years and expect him to make some big trade or major signing this week. I'll keep saying it until I go hoarse. We're all Charlie Brown and Donny is Lucy. We somehow get suckered into believing something will change. It's like we're in an abusive relationship.

I wonder what that note said that Lucy (AKA Don) is reading. Probably a memo from Jacobs warning him not to spent more than $1M on free agents this year.

 

[member 96824]

View attachment 371214

First off I was initially using 80 and somebody wanted me to go to 100 for some reason. Ok so using graph your own source cited about probabilities- do you look at this and think there is a big difference between pick 58 and pick 100 being impact players- because there isn’t. It’s a couple of percentage points. You might notice that’s not the case with round 1 in comparison- it’s a much larger difference. That’s because there’s usually a pool of like 30-40 players that people are pretty sure of then after that it’s a total crapshoot. Reaching at 58 is not the same as reaching at 15, not even close. So complaining about that is nonsense, especially when again- NOBODY HAS SEEN THE PLAYER


Now no shit pick 58 is more valuable than pick 100. Thats big brain stuff. Probably why you don’t see any pick 10 for pick 30 straight-up swaps. It’s just a fact that you’re very unlikely to get an impact player at either spot. So you pick people you know and you pick people you like with the right character that you think will drive them towards their ceiling

my whole point with that statement is that people are overreacting about somebody they’ve never seen because of a list that nhl teams do not give a singular f*** about in regards to a pick that is more likely than not going to be 100% inconsequential

Darn. I was hoping you actually had something to back that up that draft position is negligible, not just a “look at this graph with a huge Y axis that compares every draft pick to the 1st overall” How is the difference “just a couple percentage points?” The reason it doesn’t “look” like a big difference is because of the Y axis going all the way up to 100%. I’m kinda shocked someone who understands statistics so well wouldn’t know the first sin of data science is a Y axis. yeah..in comparison to the 1st overall pick the line looks smooth. But bring it down to the comparison you’re specifically making and it’s absolutely statistically significant, far from negligible. You’re talking about being close to twice as likely to draft someone at 58 who plays significant NHL games than at 100 historically.

I would also argue that this study should be revisited, as drafting and scouting has gotten significantly more advanced. It shows that Looking at drafts between 2000 and 2009 like Dobber did shows much better 2nd round value, albeit they use 99 games not 200 as their benchmark.

The real point I would be interested to see is consensus rank vs. expected value vs. actual value. The B’s are terrible at reaching and finding value that way, but is that true across the board with all franchises? I have no idea. For the purposes of all these types of studies, Lohrei will be judged as the 58th pick in the draft, not the 132nd ranked North American skater passed over in 2019. I was hoping you had evidence to back up why you feel none of that matters at all.

It’s fine, you don’t want anyone to criticize the Bruins and their draft picks. That’s okay, normal thing here. Don’t insult other people’s intelligence though and say things like you’re the only one who understands probabilities.

 

[Dr Hook]

Just to be a dick....

Kucherov was drafted with the 58th pick, why can't we do that!

We took Koko puffs at 40.

We got Brad at 71 and Krejci at 63

 

[Grimey]

Just to be a dick....

Kucherov was drafted with the 58th pick, why can't we do that!

We took Koko puffs at 40.

I also can't believe Brayden Point went to the 3rd round.

 

[Smitty93]

It's all Ryan Nadeau. He's been the associate director of drafting for 3 years now.

I'm pretty sure he's an analytics guy, which is interesting because I looked at a lot of analytics for this draft and none of their picks were on my radar.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

We got Brad at 71 and Krejci at 63

Was that the draft Gorton ran?

 

[Dr Hook]

Darn. I was hoping you actually had something to back that up that draft position is negligible, not just a “look at this graph with a huge Y axis that compares every draft pick to the 1st overall” How is the difference “just a couple percentage points?” The reason it doesn’t “look” like a big difference is because of the Y axis going all the way up to 100%. I’m kinda shocked someone who understands statistics so well wouldn’t know the first sin of data science is a Y axis. yeah..in comparison to the 1st overall pick the line looks smooth. But bring it down to the comparison you’re specifically making and it’s absolutely statistically significant, far from negligible. You’re talking about being close to twice as likely to draft someone at 58 who plays significant NHL games than at 100 historically.

I would also argue that this study should be revisited, as drafting and scouting has gotten significantly more advanced. It shows that Looking at drafts between 2000 and 2009 like Dobber did shows much better 2nd round value, albeit they use 99 games not 200 as their benchmark.

The real point I would be interested to see is consensus rank vs. expected value vs. actual value. The B’s are terrible at reaching and finding value that way, but is that true across the board with all franchises? I have no idea. For the purposes of all these types of studies, Lohrei will be judged as the 58th pick in the draft, not the 132nd ranked North American skater passed over in 2019. I was hoping you had evidence to back up why you feel none of that matters at all.

It’s fine, you don’t want anyone to criticize the Bruins and their draft picks. That’s okay, normal thing here. Don’t insult other people’s intelligence though and say things like you’re the only one who understands probabilities.

I would be interested too but how do we define value- games played? What about the quality of play in those games and over what time frame? 99 games played in 2 seasons is much different than over four seasons. It would have to account for injuries derailing a player who might have otherwise been a solid pick. Other personal issues that could affect a career but have nothing to do with hockey ability would need to be considered also. It gets damn complex.

 

[Dr Hook]

Was that the draft Gorton ran?

I believe so, but I wouldn't stake my life on it

 

[UncleRico]

We got Brad at 71 and Krejci at 63

bring back those scouts

 

[member 96824]

I would be interested too but how do we define value- games played? What about the quality of play in those games and over what time frame? 99 games played in 2 seasons is much different than over four seasons. It would have to account for injuries derailing a player who might have otherwise been a solid pick. Other personal issues that could affect a career but have nothing to do with hockey ability would need to be considered also. It gets damn complex.

Yeah damn near impossible, GP is probably the closest method available before needing a PHD in stats .

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

I also can't believe Brayden Point went to the 3rd round.

that's what happens when you focus on drafting for talent in later rounds instead of taking kids who can kill penalties or whatever

 

[Dr Hook]

bring back those scouts

Wasn't that Daniel Dore who they sacked at the same time as they sacked Gorton?

 

[LouJersey]

Bruins draft Four long-term prospects

Kirk sheds some light.

 

[bbfan419]

Best guess is that they prefer the NCAA development path to the CHL.

Which is stupid, you take the best players no matter where they are playing, this way they have now is really limiting yourself, much like the habs have to have a French coach/GM.

 

[Grimey]

that's what happens when you focus on drafting for talent in later rounds instead of taking kids who can kill penalties or whatever

Yeah it's impossible to teach players how to kill penalties so you gotta make sure you draft kids that already can, or something lol

 

[CDJ]

Darn. I was hoping you actually had something to back that up that draft position is negligible, not just a “look at this graph with a huge Y axis that compares every draft pick to the 1st overall” How is the difference “just a couple percentage points?” The reason it doesn’t “look” like a big difference is because of the Y axis going all the way up to 100%. I’m kinda shocked someone who understands statistics so well wouldn’t know the first sin of data science is a Y axis. yeah..in comparison to the 1st overall pick the line looks smooth. But bring it down to the comparison you’re specifically making and it’s absolutely statistically significant, far from negligible. You’re talking about being close to twice as likely to draft someone at 58 who plays significant NHL games than at 100 historically.

I would also argue that this study should be revisited, as drafting and scouting has gotten significantly more advanced. It shows that Looking at drafts between 2000 and 2009 like Dobber did shows much better 2nd round value, albeit they use 99 games not 200 as their benchmark.

The real point I would be interested to see is consensus rank vs. expected value vs. actual value. The B’s are terrible at reaching and finding value that way, but is that true across the board with all franchises? I have no idea. For the purposes of all these types of studies, Lohrei will be judged as the 58th pick in the draft, not the 132nd ranked North American skater passed over in 2019. I was hoping you had evidence to back up why you feel none of that matters at all.

It’s fine, you don’t want anyone to criticize the Bruins and their draft picks. That’s okay, normal thing here. Don’t insult other people’s intelligence though and say things like you’re the only one who understands probabilities.

According to your own graph that your source posted you’re looking at a % in the 20’s for pick 58 and for pick 100 a percentage at 20 in terms of 100 games played by a player. The graph also shows that reaching in the first round is way different than reaching at 58. Don’t get mad at me for using your own research, I’m not going to waste time doing my own. I don’t have all day to argue this nonsense


“Insulting other people’s intelligence” get real. If you want me to insult people’s intelligence I can ACTUALLY do that. That was me in the Tuukka thread. I’ve explained my position a thousand times. It’s a fact that you’re unlikely to get an NHL regular at either 58 or 100. And yes the difference in that player hitting is only a handful of percentage points. Per your own graph. The fact that it goes up to 100% is relevant because it shows you the entire draft and shows that bitching about a perceived reach at 58 is pointless when compared to a year like 2015, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU HAVE NOT SEEN THE PLAYER.

 

[bbfan419]

Vaak went where he was projected and 80% of the fan base would have cried about picking a midget if they picked debrincat

not me, I wanted Debrincat and was hoping for him, same with Thomas he was the guy Dom was saying would be our best bet at that time.

 

[Dr Hook]

Bruins draft Four long-term prospects

Kirk sheds some light.

It is a great write-up. He is critical as needed, but it is a much-needed corrective to all the over-reacting that is going on here.

 

[Gator Mike]

Which is stupid, you take the best players no matter where they are playing, this way they have now is really limiting yourself, much like the habs have to have a French coach/GM.

What if on top of preferring the NCAA development path, they also have analytics that suggest that once you get to a certain point in the draft, guys from the CHL tend to be overvalued, while guys from Europe and the US are undervalued?

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

that's what happens when you focus on drafting for talent in later rounds instead of taking kids who can kill penalties or whatever

Because every team in the league passed on Point (including Tampa 3 times) I'd chalk it up to stepping in shit rather than talent evaluation.

 

[CDJ]

I honestly had no idea the coyotes had to forfeit picks

holy shit they need to get that franchise out of there lol

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

It is a great write-up. He is critical as needed, but it is a much-needed corrective to all the over-reacting that is going on here.

Not painting a bright future for the Bs.

 

[SanDogBrewin]

Brad Marchand 80th overall among NA skaters
Matt Grzelcyk 177th / NA skaters
Jack Studnicka 120th / NA skaters

I do agree that Sweeney should have traded down, for his picks, in many instances, a lot actually. But I don’t agree that the scouting list(s) are the, “be-all-end-all” for the draft. Go take a look at all the re-drafts threads on the prospects page.