How so? Tampa has been dominating Montreal in xGF the entire series. Tonight they had a xGF of 59%
Yeah you're right. That's the only advanced stat that people ever cite.
Montreal has out CF'd and out FF'd Tampa the entire series.
Tampa got completely dominated in every statistical category in game two.... and won.
The advanced stats in game 1 would tell you it was a pretty competitive game. Tampa had one more HDC. Montreal had more total chances, and more scoring chances. The XGF was relatively close. It was a blowout.
The flaw is readily apparent to anyone that understands hockey. Not all high danger chances are equal. Not all shots are equal. Not all scoring chances are equal.
The shots coming off Tampa sticks are way more dangerous than the shots coming off of the Montreal sticks. Montreal needs twice as many looks as Tampa if they want to win.