NHL and NHLPA Prefer to play some regular season games if they are able to resume playing

[bustamente]

NFL teams pretty well pays for their operating budget from their tv contract everything else generated by the team is gravy, if they can keep their players and officials safe starting the season in empty stadiums will happen

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A regular NHL season likely wouldn’t start to empty buildings.

But it will be tough even to finish this season - in any format.

In a worst case scenario empty buildings might be their only option in January. We have the often quoted 12-18 months for a vaccine. That really is a minimum. There is no guarantee that they can develop a vaccine for every disease. Some vaccines provide immunity for limited time periods from a few months to a few years.

We can't pack 15, 000 people into BMTSP until we have herd immunity, whether that comes from a vaccine or from nearly everyone having had the disease.

 

[Jet]

A regular NHL season likely wouldn’t start to empty buildings.

I would have agreed with you on this maybe a year ago but now I wonder.

Our company, though always interested in having our agents WFH really never seriously explored the model. Then, COVID hit and BAM we had nearly 17000 people working from home. It honestly was quite impressive how we figured it out so quickly.

IF we are still under physical distancing requirements when the next season is set to start, I could see a PPV model including ads, with a reduced salary for players.

Of course, there would be serious logistical issues (such as how can you sequester 700 players from their families for so long? Maybe they do the season in chunks with breaks for them to return to their families and then re quarantine?)

However, the NHL will come up with a model that allows them to at least continue and make some revenue. With how much many owners are leveraged, the survival of the NHL as we know it now is fully dependant on that.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

But it will be tough even to finish this season - in any format.

In a worst case scenario empty buildings might be their only option in January. We have the often quoted 12-18 months for a vaccine. That really is a minimum. There is no guarantee that they can develop a vaccine for every disease. Some vaccines provide immunity for limited time periods from a few months to a few years.

We can't pack 15, 000 people into BMTSP until we have herd immunity, whether that comes from a vaccine or from nearly everyone having had the disease.

I'm also of the view that restrictions on mass gatherings will go on far longer than many people are expecting. I think it not only possible but probable that the 20-21 season will become the shortened 21 season, or simply not happen at all. And honestly, the thought of ramping things up again to get the playoffs in this year is pure folly. Why start something that in all likelihood you can't finish? All it takes is one player, official, coach, trainer, etc etc testing positive while the playoffs are under way and you pretty much have to shut the whole thing down again. Just let it go NHL. It just isn't that important. It won't be the first year that no champion was declared, and it won't be the last.

 

[KingBogo]

But it will be tough even to finish this season - in any format.

In a worst case scenario empty buildings might be their only option in January. We have the often quoted 12-18 months for a vaccine. That really is a minimum. There is no guarantee that they can develop a vaccine for every disease. Some vaccines provide immunity for limited time periods from a few months to a few years.

We can't pack 15, 000 people into BMTSP until we have herd immunity, whether that comes from a vaccine or from nearly everyone having had the disease.

And the South Korea goes and announces today that 91 people have tested positive a second time for COVID 19.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

And the South Korea goes and announces today that 91 people have tested positive a second time for COVID 19.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066

Yup, I came across that a day or 2 ago. They were not sure if it was a re-infection or a re-emergence of the disease from the same initial infection.

Either way, it suggests to me that developing herd immunity may be that much more difficult. We may get a high rate of re-infection. We may get a disease that has periods of being dormant and then symptoms return, like malaria. We may get a vaccine with a low rate of effectiveness. Or we might get one that provides immunity for only a short time.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

I would have agreed with you on this maybe a year ago but now I wonder.

Our company, though always interested in having our agents WFH really never seriously explored the model. Then, COVID hit and BAM we had nearly 17000 people working from home. It honestly was quite impressive how we figured it out so quickly.

IF we are still under physical distancing requirements when the next season is set to start, I could see a PPV model including ads, with a reduced salary for players.

Of course, there would be serious logistical issues (such as how can you sequester 700 players from their families for so long? Maybe they do the season in chunks with breaks for them to return to their families and then re quarantine?)

However, the NHL will come up with a model that allows them to at least continue and make some revenue. With how much many owners are leveraged, the survival of the NHL as we know it now is fully dependant on that.

PPV? So basically free hockey on SN and TSN goes away and you can only watch NHL games with a subscription? f*** that, I just stop watching hockey if that happens. I only watch Jets games as it is, and even with those, a lot of the game I'm busy with something else and I'm just half listening to it till something worth watching happens (goal, fight, injury, the good stuff). So, switching to radio wouldn't be a big jump for me.

 

[ps241]

I would have agreed with you on this maybe a year ago but now I wonder.

Our company, though always interested in having our agents WFH really never seriously explored the model. Then, COVID hit and BAM we had nearly 17000 people working from home. It honestly was quite impressive how we figured it out so quickly.

IF we are still under physical distancing requirements when the next season is set to start, I could see a PPV model including ads, with a reduced salary for players.

Of course, there would be serious logistical issues (such as how can you sequester 700 players from their families for so long? Maybe they do the season in chunks with breaks for them to return to their families and then re quarantine?)

However, the NHL will come up with a model that allows them to at least continue and make some revenue. With how much many owners are leveraged, the survival of the NHL as we know it now is fully dependant on that.

Possibly but there is so much hair on it.

first off there is the health risks for the players? I think they could get over this but one guy on the team gets it are they back to the quarantine of the team again? That would f*** with the schedule.

Secondly I assume the PPV model would have to fully replace existing TV deals contracts? Would TV vendors agree to that? No way the local tv contract teams share. Even this happened, which is doubtful, how much of a delta does that create between exiting TV revenue at all levels and PPV TV revenue? They might find themselves in a worse position in many of the US markets.


Would players come back for 15% to 20% of their salaries? Owners couldn’t front full pay cheques and work off escrow because they wouldn’t have the cash flow to do that? How do they start out with unknown revenues?

I don’t see this coming together for a league that is gate driven but who knows?

 

[Eyeseeing]

PPV? So basically free hockey on SN and TSN goes away and you can only watch NHL games with a subscription? f*** that, I just stop watching hockey if that happens. I only watch Jets games as it is, and even with those, a lot of the game I'm busy with something else and I'm just half listening to it till something worth watching happens (goal, fight, injury, the good stuff). So, switching to radio wouldn't be a big jump for me.

Yes with so many people being unemployed and money becoming scarce sports will be a low priority for many.

Sports are a nice escape and diversion but they aren’t essential at any cost.

 

[Gotaf7]

PPV? So basically free hockey on SN and TSN goes away and you can only watch NHL games with a subscription? f*** that, I just stop watching hockey if that happens. I only watch Jets games as it is, and even with those, a lot of the game I'm busy with something else and I'm just half listening to it till something worth watching happens (goal, fight, injury, the good stuff). So, switching to radio wouldn't be a big jump for me.

I agree, PPV will be a massive fail!

 

[KingBogo]

I agree, PPV will be a massive fail!

I'd watch it. It would be far cheaper than STs. At some point people will want entertainment options beyond netflix.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I'd watch it. It would be far cheaper than STs. At some point people will want entertainment options beyond netflix.

That’s true about ST costs likely.
It would all depend on the costs of PPV and how it’s packaged I suppose.
Cable TV is already losing customers over high costs and terrible content.
Perhaps some would and some are already opting out of traditional cable packages in lieu of PPV just like they are for streaming services.
Sports entertainment is lucrative and the leaders amongst the various leagues will figure out a way to bring it to the masses if traditional conduits are no longer available.
Times are changing and certain aspects of life as we knew it will be forever changed.
Food for thought as this story constantly evolves.

 

[KingBogo]

That’s true about ST costs likely.
It would all depend on the costs of PPV and how it’s packaged I suppose.
Cable TV is already losing customers over high costs and terrible content.
Perhaps some would and some are already opting out of traditional cable packages in lieu of PPV just like they are for streaming services.
Sports entertainment is lucrative and the leaders amongst the various leagues will figure out a way to bring it to the masses if traditional conduits are no longer available.
Times are changing and certain aspects of life as we knew it will be forever changed.
Food for thought as this story constantly evolves.

What will be the main determinant IMO is when mass gatherings of 10's of thousands of people will be allowed to happen again. There are so many unknowns, but it does seem very unlikely any jurisdiction will allow 15,000 - 90,000 people to gather in a confined space for several hours anytime in the foreseeable future. We are likely to see many rebound spikes across the globe as various regions try to move back to normal and one of the last steps to normalcy would be mass gatherings for sporting events. In the meantime there will be growing pressure from those heavily invested in pro sports to bring their product to the market place in some way shape or form.

 

[ps241]

What will be the main determinant IMO is when mass gatherings of 10's of thousands of people will be allowed to happen again. There are so many unknowns, but it does seem very unlikely any jurisdiction will allow 15,000 - 90,000 people to gather in a confined space for several hours anytime in the foreseeable future. We are likely to see many rebound spikes across the globe as various regions try to move back to normal and one of the last steps to normalcy would be mass gatherings for sporting events. In the meantime there will be growing pressure from those heavily invested in pro sports to bring their product to the market place in some way shape or form.

They will once people are vaccinated. That will be “the” game changer for large gatherings IMO.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm also of the view that restrictions on mass gatherings will go on far longer than many people are expecting. I think it not only possible but probable that the 20-21 season will become the shortened 21 season, or simply not happen at all. And honestly, the thought of ramping things up again to get the playoffs in this year is pure folly. Why start something that in all likelihood you can't finish? All it takes is one player, official, coach, trainer, etc etc testing positive while the playoffs are under way and you pretty much have to shut the whole thing down again. Just let it go NHL. It just isn't that important. It won't be the first year that no champion was declared, and it won't be the last.

When the shutdown first started, it wasn't clear that it would last too long to finish this season. I think it is clear now. Cancel it and get on with the normal off-season work.

 

[KingBogo]

They will once people are vaccinated. That will be “the” game changer for large gatherings IMO.

I hope you're right PS. But even if we do find a vaccine, the date when the world can supply a few billion vaccinations across the globe is likely a long way off.

 

[wpgfishfan]

Jets are 20th so we want regular season games but why would Detroit San Jose want to come back for 2-3 games?

If if if if the season isn't cancelled we need to go straight to playoffs. Now hopefully we go to 20 teams so we get last spot. If not we are 12th in lottery

 

[ps241]

I hope you're right PS. But even if we do find a vaccine, the date when the world can supply a few billion vaccinations across the globe is likely a long way off.

Yea that roll out should be interesting. I wonder how long it takes?

 

[jetsforever]

Disclaimer: all this is assuming that anything can happen, obviously if things stay bad the whole season may have to end
Having a few regular season games (to get up to 72 or 74 or whatever) is the best thing to do IMO. It really doesn't seem right to me to have a season where different teams play a different amount of games. This is particularly useful for the Jets as we probably wouldn't make the playoffs otherwise, although I would be in favour of this no matter where we were in the standings.
My current hope is, assuming a full 82+full playoffs isn't possible: regular season capped at ~72/74 games to even the standings and get back in game shape, then maybe best of 5 rounds for the first 3 playoff rounds and best of 7 in the Finals. Games most likely take place at neutral sites, without fans. It's certainly better than nothing.

 

[jetsforever]

Jets are 20th so we want regular season games but why would Detroit San Jose want to come back for 2-3 games?

If if if if the season isn't cancelled we need to go straight to playoffs. Now hopefully we go to 20 teams so we get last spot. If not we are 12th in lottery

Just spitballing here but maybe Detroit/SJ would want to come back because A) the players enjoy playing hockey and want to get back to normalcy, B) the team wants to make money (or at least not lose as much), or C) they are contractually obligated to anyways.

 

[robertocarlos]

If they have time for some regular season games then they have time for all the teams to be in the playoffs.

 

[jetsforever]

Yea that roll out should be interesting. I wonder how long it takes?

Now I have no experience with the pharmaceutical industry, but I have to think that once a vaccine is developed, countries will figure out a way to roll it out very quickly.

 

[Channelcat]

All they do is report what he does and says. It is all they can do to keep up. If it makes him look bad, that is no one's fault but his own.

Not true at all. They have gone well beyond reporting the news. They are a complete circus and utterly irresponsible.

 

[robertocarlos]

NFL teams pretty well pays for their operating budget from their tv contract everything else generated by the team is gravy, if they can keep their players and officials safe starting the season in empty stadiums will happen

You can't have groups larger than 10 people. So 1 QB, 1 center, 2 receivers on offence. Two refs, and five steamboats.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not true at all. They have gone well beyond reporting the news. They are a complete circus and utterly irresponsible.

No they're not. Sorry.