NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[sigma six]

I will eat three hats if Atlanta comes into Seattle and wins.

 

[Halladay]

I will eat three hats if Atlanta comes into Seattle and wins.

They were 3 points away from winning a few months ago and now Thomas is out. Russell has not been very good this year. It wouldn't be shocking.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

They were 3 points away from winning a few months ago and now Thomas is out. Russell has not been very good this year. It wouldn't be shocking.

And they likely win if Sherman doesn't get away with PI like that whole team does at home.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Panthers elimination scenarios next week

CAR loss/tie
GB win/tie
TB win/tie
Was win

Most important result next week: Get another damn tie Washington

Never give up

 

[misterchainsaw]

Fine. I'll leave Carolina in for now even though they need a tie

I may add additional clinching scenarios if the site I use posts them mid-week...I figured strength of victory clinching scenarios for the Packers, but I'm not going into strength of schedule.

AFTER WEEK 15: (x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched divison, z-clinched bye, @- clinched top seed)

1. x-Dallas 12-2
2. y-Seattle 9-4-1
T3. Atlanta 9-5 (Leads strength of victory tiebreaker with Detroit)
T3. Detroit 9-5
5. New York Giants 10-4
T6. Green Bay 8-6 (Leads strength of schedule(!) tiebreaker with Tampa Bay)
------------------------------------------------------------
T6. Tampa Bay 8-6
8. Washington 7-6-1
9. Minnesota 7-7
10. New Orleans 6-8 (Has clinched common opponents tiebreaker with CAR)
11. Carolina 6-8
ELIMINATED: Arizona, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco

Should be noted that while GB/TB tiebreakers go down to strength of schedule, GB actually has the strength of victory advantage at the end of the year since the teams on their remaining schedule has more wins than TB's opponents.

- Dallas controls their own destiny for NFC East and #1 seed.
- Seattle controls their own destiny for #2 seed
- Atlanta controls their own destiny for NFC South
- Green Bay and Detroit both control their own destiny for NFC North.
- New York Giants control their own destiny for a wild card birth.

CLINCHING SCENARIOS
- Dallas clinches #1 seed and NFC East with win or NYG loss
- Seattle clinches first round bye with win, DET loss, and ATL loss.
- Detroit clinches NFC North with win and GB loss
- Detroit clinches a wild card spot with a win and TB loss
- Detroit clinches a wild card spot with a WSH loss, TB loss, and ATL win
- Atlanta clinches NFC South with win and TB loss
- Atlanta clinches wild card birth with win and either a GB or DET loss
- Atlanta clinches wild card birth with WSH loss and GB loss
- New York Giants clinch a playoff spot with a win
- New York Giants clinch a playoff spot with a GB or DET loss
- New York Giants clinch a playoff spot with a TB or ATL loss (Detroit would be the odd team out if GB, DET, TB, ATL, and NYG all finish 10-6)
- Green Bay clinches playoff spot with all of the following: (1)A win, (2)A TB, WSH loss and ATL win and (3) 4 of the following 6: JAX win, DET win, HOU win, SF loss, KC loss, SD loss
- Tampa Bay clinches playoff spot with all of the following: A win, a GB loss, a DET loss, and a WSH loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Carolina, New Orleans, and Minnesota are eliminated with a NO loss (aka a TB win)
- Carolina and New Orleans are eliminated with a GB win or WSH win
- Minnesota is eliminated with a loss.
- Washington is eliminated with a loss and a TB and GB win.
- Tampa Bay is eliminated if they lose, ATL wins, and GB fulfills criteria (1) and (3) of their playoff clinching scenario above, except that in criteria (3) FIVE of the six results have to happen.

CAN GAIN CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 16:
- Tampa Bay can control destiny of NFC South with a win and an ATL loss
- Tampa Bay can control destiny of wild card spot with a win and GB loss
- Washington can control destiny of wild card spot with a win, GB loss, and TB loss

CAN LOSE CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 16:
- Atlanta loses control of NFC South destiny with a loss and a TB win (They will maintain control of own destiny for playoffs)
- Green Bay loses control of NFC North with a loss and DET win
- Green Bay further loses control of wild card destiny with TB win

 

[Canada4Gold]

I also like trying to get far enough down the tiebreaker order to the "Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed." step. Just once I want that step to actually come into play. Last year IIRC it was possible to have that happen entering the last week. 1 team needed some weird 5 or 6 results that seemed completely unrealted because it was involving SOV and SOS. Using yours I did that with TB and GB for the 2nd WC spot, but when I slot the same results into the ESPN one it tells me "Tampa Bay wins on common opponents" the same issue I had with Carolina.

Anyway, wanted to post the link to that scenario in case they fix the issue before next weeks games so I can see if that's in fact for sure what's happening

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0874643~1~400874692~1~400874699~2~400874647~2.

The potential for GB/TB SOV, and SOS tied still possible, and ESPN still incorrectly giving it to Tampa on common games.

The tie is gone all the way to SOS right now to determine who's 6th like mcs has above, hope it gets into next week with tying SOV and SOS still possible, the final week scenarios will be fun

 

[Blitzkrug]

Weird thing is depending on how things play out, the Titans/Texans game in week 17 might be the difference between the Bucs or Packers getting in.

Though it seems like Tampa's path of least resistance is them taking care of business and then having the Packers knock the Lions out of the playoffs entirely by winning the NFC North. Since according to the playoff machine, that puts the Bucs in at 6.

Alternatively, they could always wait for a potential (though highly unlikely) Falcons collapse.

 

[What the Faulk]

The playoff machine still has some teams screwy with common games. I haven't used it this year.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

The playoff machine still has some teams screwy with common games. I haven't used it this year.

Yup, I am using the yahoo playoff generator exclusively from now on. ESPN's playoff machine is constantly screwing up these tie-breakers.

 

[Canada4Gold]

So I just went to see what the Panthers odds at winning the Super Bowl are because by setting the chance of a tie at 0.2%, and either team winning a game at 49.9% I found their odds of making the playoffs was 130 000 to 1. I was curious if the betting sites were giving astronomical odds on the Panthers winning the Super Bowl odds on a Panthers Super Bowl are better than the Saints or Bills? WTF? Panthers listed at 250 to 1, Saints at 350 to 1, Bills at 400 to 1. I mean I know nobody is going to give you 50 000 to 1 odds, but they should at least be worse odds than Buffalo or New Orleans who don't need a tie to make the playoffs. I hope nobody is actually stupid enough to bet on those Panthers odds, if there's a site out there giving betting odds on a tie you could probably make 50k betting a dollar on the parlay odds that gets Carolina into the playoffs in comparison to the 250 you'd make betting on Carolina winning the Super Bowl at those awful odds

Related question: Is there anywhere you can bet on a NFL game ending in a tie? I'm actually curious now what the parlay odds would be on the Panthers combo

 

[Canada4Gold]

Question with regards to SOV. I'm not sure if it's possible for this to come into play this year but for future reference.

If 2 teams with ties end up tied, lets say they both ended up 9-6-1 when counting the strength of victory does the tie come into play at all? Like usually you just count the combined record of all the teams they beat and see who's is better. But with a tie considered half a win, does half of the team they tied with record get counted? I would assume no since it's not a victory, but where it's considered half a victory I'm not sure.

For example say Tampa tied this week and ended in a tie with Washington for the final playoff spot at 9-6-1 for both of them. Lets pretend everyone prior to SOV is tied, you start adding together the record of teams they beat. Does half of Cincinnati's record(2.5-4-0.5 being half of 5-8-1) get added in there or is it just ignored completely.

If the answer to the above question is it gets ignored completely then I have another question. If 2 teams tied with records of 9-7, and 8-6-2, and it got down to SOV, then the team with 2 ties would have 1 less win so if we ignore the teams record that they tied with instead of doing the half thing I mentioned above then obviously the team who only beat 8 teams would have a lower number of games in their SOV. I assume they'd go by winning % here when comparing to the win-loss record SOV of the 9-7 team

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

A google search indicates it seems to be ''winning percentage'' so a tie = a loss for the SOV calculation.

Official playoff scenarios:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...yoff-clinching-scenarios?campaign=Twitter_atn

NFC

CLINCHED: Dallas Cowboys -- playoff berth; Seattle Seahawks, NFC West title
ELIMINATED: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia.

DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas clinches division title and home field advantage throughout playoffs:
1) DAL win or tie
2) NYG loss or tie


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Seattle clinches a first-round bye:
1) SEA win + DET loss + ATL loss or tie

NEW YORK GIANTS
NY Giants clinch a playoff berth:
1) NYG win or tie
2) DET loss or tie
3) GB loss or tie
4) TB loss or tie
5) ATL loss

DETROIT LIONS
Detroit clinches division title:
1) DET win + GB loss or tie
2) DET tie + GB loss

Detroit clinches a playoff berth:
1) DET win + TB loss or tie
2) DET tie + TB loss
3) DET tie + TB tie + ATL win
4) WAS loss or tie + TB loss + ATL win or tie

ATLANTA FALCONS
Atlanta clinches division title:
1) ATL win + TB loss or tie
2) ATL tie + TB loss

Atlanta clinches a playoff berth:
1) ATL win + ATL clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DET
2) ATL win or tie + GB loss or tie
3) ATL win + DET loss or tie
4) ATL tie + DET tie
5) WAS loss or tie + GB loss
6) WAS loss or tie + GB tie + DET loss

GREEN BAY PACKERS
Green Bay clinches a playoff berth:
1) GB win + WAS loss or tie + TB loss + ATL win or tie + GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over TB

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Tampa Bay clinches playoff berth:
1) TB win + GB loss + DET loss + WAS loss
2) TB win + GB loss + DET loss + WAS tie + TB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DET

 

[Canada4Gold]

^Thanks

 

[misterchainsaw]

A google search indicates it seems to be ''winning percentage'' so a tie = a loss for the SOV calculation.

Official playoff scenarios:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...yoff-clinching-scenarios?campaign=Twitter_atn

I don't think that's correct. The NFL officially treats a tie as half a win and half a loss in the standings, so a team that's 8-7-1 is actually 8.5-7.5 in the NFL's eyes.

This is why two teams with a 10-6 record and a 9-5-2 record go to tiebreakers, despite 9/14 being greater than 10/16.

The official strength of victory tiebreaker is a win % calculation, I count opponent wins (counting ties as a half a win) because it's easier since 99% of the time teams in tiebreakers have the same amount of wins, but the official calculation is an average of the teams you beat's winning percentage (again counting ties as half wins)

EDIT: Sorry, misunderstood the question. I think Marc's right - a team you tied does not go into the strength of victory calculation. Couldn't say for sure though.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Oh man Canada4Gold, we were so close to having tiebreakers potentially go beyond strength of schedule in Tampa's clinching scenario. They get into a tiebreaker with Detroit which if every single result (that isn't locked in by the scenario that creates the tie at 9-7 between TB and DET) goes Detroit's way for strength of victory, the two teams end up tied. Strength of schedule then can come down to just a one game difference in TB's favor at worst. One more non divisional game pitting an AFC North team against an AFC South team DET lost to, for example, could have sent strength of schedule into a tie as well.

Instead, the clinching scenario ends up looking rather simple. TB can slip into a tie of strength of victory with Detroit while in a tiebreaker for the last playoff spot, but they cannot lose the strength of schedule tiebreak to them.

Again, this is ignoring all ties. If WSH ties this week instead of losing, TB could still end up in a tie with Detroit for the last playoff spot and lose strength of victory by half a game if everything breaks perfectly.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Oh man Canada4Gold, we were so close to having tiebreakers potentially go beyond strength of schedule in Tampa's clinching scenario. They get into a tiebreaker with Detroit which if every single result (that isn't locked in by the scenario that creates the tie at 9-7 between TB and DET) goes Detroit's way for strength of victory, the two teams end up tied. Strength of schedule then can come down to just a one game difference in TB's favor at worst. One more non divisional game pitting an AFC North team against an AFC South team DET lost to, for example, could have sent strength of schedule into a tie as well.

Instead, the clinching scenario ends up looking rather simple. TB can slip into a tie of strength of victory with Detroit while in a tiebreaker for the last playoff spot, but they cannot lose the strength of schedule tiebreak to them.

Again, this is ignoring all ties. If WSH ties this week instead of losing, TB could still end up in a tie with Detroit for the last playoff spot and lose strength of victory by half a game if everything breaks perfectly.

The GB/TB one is quite possible to go beyond SOS, both SOS and SOV are fairly close right now, there are numerous scenarios over the final 2 weeks that would result in both being tied. Which is weird because it's the 2 teams I had initially used to try and make it happen. The TB/Detroit one would have been good too but like you said no likely with everything having to go Detroits way just to tie SOV. While the GB/TB one is quite close, and hopefully will still be unclinched entering week 17.

Not sure if there are others, there probably are possibilities, but GB/TB was one of the first I checked. I tried some of the AFC teams too to see if I could squeeze any of them into a SOV/SOS tie before last week, I think I failed. But I don't think I tried them all before I tried TB/GB

Is it too much to ask for the spot to come down to the coin flip tiebreaker

 

[rangerssharks414]

Is it too much to ask for the spot to come down to the coin flip tiebreaker

Wait, this is actually a thing? Oh, please happen!

 

[Canada4Gold]

Wait, this is actually a thing? Oh, please happen!

yep, but it's not even remotely possible everything ahead of it would be tied

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
Two Clubs

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

If it ever happens, the better do the coin flip on live TV

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Looks like ESPN finally got their playoff machine right.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Looks like ESPN finally got their playoff machine right.

Finally! Imputted the proper results for a tied SOV and SOS and yep it finally works

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0874692~2~400874694~2~400874696~2~400874699~1

Some of these results aren`t exactly likely, I completely ignored the strength of the teams and just tried fiddlign with the results to get GB`s SOS and SOV down far enough to reach TB's, had to fiddle around a bit because for a while there I was always getting a difference of 1 in 1 of them. Took me a while to figure out the right result to switch, it was week 17 CHI/MIN game, changing it to CHI didn't change relative SOV(GB have beaten both once more than TB has), but decreased GB's relative SOS by 1(GB has played MIN twice, TB 0, GB has played CHI twice, TB once, giving CHI the extra win relative to GB made TB SOS better by 1)

That might make it sound like tying is difficult, and obviously it is, but there are plenty of scenarios, I just happened to initially input results that left a difference of 1 and as far as I can tell that was the only correction game that relatively moved just 1 of the SOS/SOV 1 game and not both of them 1 or 1 of them twice.

You probably don't care but just explaining myself

Hopefully we get into a situation entering week 17 where this is still possible.

 

[hockeykicker]

Redskins can clinch the last wild card spot with a lions loss Monday at Cowboys and a skins win next week over Giants

Or

If lions beat Cowboys Monday night then a skins win over Giants and a lions win over packers gets them in

 

[MMC]

Falcons clinched NFC South and Giants clinched #5?

 

[misterchainsaw]

Falcons clinched NFC South and Giants clinched #5?

Yep. Giants beat the Lions so can't lose the #5 seed to them because no other wild card team can get to 10-6.

 

[MMC]

Yep. Giants beat the Lions so can't lose the #5 seed to them because no other wild card team can get to 10-6.

Cowboys better pray the 6th seed upsets.

 

[hockeykicker]

Cowboys better pray the 6th seed upsets.

But Washington (if it is them) rolled through the Cowboys defense too. Not saying they can beat Dallas but they have the offense