NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Through 11 weeks:

1. DAL 9-1
2. SEA 7-2-1
3. DET 6-4
4. ATL 6-4
WC1: NYG 7-3
WC2: WSH 6-3-1
---
MIN 6-4
TB 5-5
PHI 5-5
ARZ 4-5-1
NO 4-6
CAR 4-6
GB 4-6

Click to read more...

 

[Halladay]

The Giants and Washington will make it. I still think Minnesota wins the division. The Seahawks should win the conference as in represent thd nfc in the superbowl. Dallas will have rhe besf record and Atlanra will win the south.

 

[ecemleafs]

Giants must be 8-3 come next week with the Browns on the schedule. I'd feel very good about the giants making the playoffs if they got to 8-3.

 

[What the Faulk]

Washington's next 4: @DAL, @ARI, @PHI, CAR.
NY Giants last 5: @PIT, DAL, DET, @PHI, @WAS

It's very hard for three teams from the same division to make the playoffs, especially when the 4th is not a Cleveland.

I'm really only comfortable calling Dallas and Seattle in, and I still say the Cowboys are the team to beat, but it wouldn't shock me if, say, Atlanta got their **** together and put up 30+ points on either of those teams.

Of course, I'm still holding out hope Carolina can get to 10-6, but it's an uphill battle. @OAK, @SEA, SD, @WAS, ATL, @TB. Again, they lost on last minute FGs to Denver, Tampa, New Orleans, and Kansas City. They could just as easily be 8-2 right now. They aren't, but the point is, winning out, while tough, is doable.

 

[sigma six]

Here comes the part where the NFC East beats the crap out of itself for a month. It would be impressive if Dallas is still the 1-seed after all that.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

So Seattle can get the no.1 seed if they have the same number of wins as Dallas right, since their win % would be higher?

 

[What the Faulk]

Yes. Seattle would be 13-2-1 versus Dallas at 13-3 or something like that.

 

[Halladay]

Not sure Seattle will win out. Think Dallas might lose two more times.

 

[Voight]

Only one I see changing is the Skins and maybe the Lions. PHI or TB could make a run at the WC, especially with the NFC North being the division of death this year. Now the Lions have really impressed me without Megatron and the Vikes have been average after a super hot start.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

philly has to beat the giants and skins to have any real chance now which would be fine by me those teams are making the east too close for my liking

 

[Halladay]

The Eagles arent making the playoffs, they squandered too many games already. Though I think they will beat all three East teams at home. They seem to be a totally different team there, especially defensively.

 

[What the Faulk]

The ESPN playoff machine might not be live (though it should be at some point this week), but you can get a bootleg version by going to http://nflplayoffpredictor.com/ and clicking 2016 results. It'll fill in everything that's happened so far.

I was playing around with far-fetched scenarios as I always do. Apparently the Saints win all 2 and 3 way ties at 10-6 with the Panthers and Falcons based on division record. A 4-way, 9-7 tie with everyone 3-3 in the division goes to SOV between Carolina/NO. Sadly, because of the ties, I can't get it further than that. Carolina plays the Redskins/Cardinals/Seahawks while the Saints only play the latter two, so you can't quite tie on winning percentage.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Cowboys/seahawks are virtual locks, giants/redskins should be in.

 

[What the Faulk]

The ESPN playoff machine is live...kind of. It has the 2016 info loaded but every time you try to pick an individual game it hangs indefinitely.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

[misterchainsaw]

POST THANKSGIVING MIDWEEK 12:

1. Dallas 10-1
2. Seattle 7-2-1
3. Detroit 7-4
4. Atlanta 6-4
5. New York Giants 7-3
6. Washington 6-4-1
------------------------------------------------------
7. Minnesota 6-5
T8. Tampa Bay 5-5 (Leads conference record tiebreak with PHI)
T8. Philadelphia 5-5
10. Arizona 4-5-1
T11. New Orleans 4-6 (Leads divison tiebreak with CAR due to divisional record. Leads conference record tiebreak with GB and LA)
T11. Carolina 4-6 (Leads conference record tiebreak with GB and LA)
T11. Los Angeles 4-6 (Leads strength of victory tiebreak with GB)
T11. Green Bay 4-6
15. Chicago 2-8
16. San Francisco 1-9

No clinching scenarios

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- SF is eliminated with a loss
- SF may be eliminated with some combination of wins from ATL, TB, PHI, and NO but with the tiebreaker scenarios not working on the playoff machine I'm not going to bother here

CAN GAIN CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY:
- MIN gains control of their own destiny with a NYG loss AND a TB loss.

CAN LOSE CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY:
- No one

 

[BMOK33]

Cowboys/seahawks are virtual locks, giants/redskins should be in.

Giants are no lock, even with a win this week their schedule is really hard thereafter and they've not really looked great vs anyone this year. They've had 3-4 games they probably should have lost where they lost the turnover battle as well. I'm most comfortable right now saying both Detroit and Minny make it. After that odds certainly favor the Giants or Eagles. I like the Eagles over the Skins because they are mostly home after this where they've played well, and their schedule is easier than the Skins. The Skins I think will be destroyed by these next 3 games where they go 1-2 or even 0-3 which I think will be enough to make it hard for them to get in.

 

[misterchainsaw]

AFTER WEEK 12: (No one currently outside of the playoff spots controls their own destiny)

1. Dallas 10-1
2. Seattle 7-3-1
T3. Detroit 7-4 (Leads Conference record tiebreaker with ATL)
T3. Atlanta 7-4
5. New York Giants 8-3
6. Washington 6-4-1
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
T7. Tampa Bay 6-5 (Leads conference record tiebreaker with MIN)
T7. Minnesota 6-5
T9. New Orleans 5-6 (Leads conference record tiebreaker with GB and PHI)
T9. Green Bay 5-6 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with PHI)
T9. Philadelphia 5-6
12. Arizona 4-6-1
13. Carolina 4-7 (Wins H2H tiebreaker with LA)
14. Los Angeles 4-7
15. Chicago 2-9
ELIMINATED: San Francisco

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Dallas clinches a playoff spot with a win and a WSH or TB loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Chicago is eliminated with a loss
- Chicago is eliminated with a NO, TB, GB, and MIN win
- Chicago is eliminated with a DET and WSH win
- Chicago is eliminated with a GB, MIN, and WSH win

TEAMS THAT CAN GAIN CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 12:
- Tampa Bay with a win and a NYG or WSH loss
- Minnesota with a win and a DET loss combined with a WSH or TB loss
- Minnesota with a win and a WSH and NYG loss

TEAMS THAT CAN LOSE CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 12:
- Washington with a loss and a TB win OR a loss and both a DET and MIN win

 

[What the Faulk]

If Carolina wins out to get to 9-7 (a tough task itself), they're still pretty done. It'd give out a loss to Atlanta and Washington, but they still have to pass too many teams. They are sitting strong with tiebreakers vs everyone but NO and TB EDIT: and MIN, but they needed losses by teams like Atlanta to Arizona to have a shot. What a shame that they followed up last season with this mess.

 

[BMOK33]

If Carolina wins out to get to 9-7 (a tough task itself), they're still pretty done. It'd give out a loss to Atlanta and Washington, but they still have to pass too many teams. They are sitting strong with tiebreakers vs everyone but NO and TB, but they needed losses by teams like Atlanta to Arizona to have a shot. What a shame that they followed up last season with this mess.

Someone may make it at 9-7. The only thing I'm relatively sure of is that there won't be 3 teams who go 10-6 which has occurred many times over the years. Its gonna be real tough this year for that to happen though

 

[What the Faulk]

The way this season is going Atlanta and NYG will hit 10+ wins, while Carolina will win out and still miss the playoffs because Washington will be 9-6-1 with their only loss coming to Carolina.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

 

[Roboturner913]

Certain things have to happen, like Atlanta going into their typical season-ending tailspin, but I'm starting to like the Saints chances of getting to 9-7 or 10-6. Detroit at home is winnable, they never lose at Tampa, at Cardinals seems tough but winnable, Tampa at home, then a week 17 finale at Atlanta. None of these teams are pushovers but it's the easiest stretch of what has been a pretty grueling schedule.

People will laugh but they are shaping up to be a pretty good team very soon. 6th in DVOA in the whole league this year. Get those special teams ironed out next season and they could realistically win 12 games.

 

[What the Faulk]

They are 22 in DVOA? http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

[Roboturner913]

You are looking at defensive DVOA only, although my neighbor was wrong too. They are 11th overall not 6th

 

[sjsharks92]

Certain things have to happen, like Atlanta going into their typical season-ending tailspin, but I'm starting to like the Saints chances of getting to 9-7 or 10-6. Detroit at home is winnable, they never lose at Tampa, at Cardinals seems tough but winnable, Tampa at home, then a week 17 finale at Atlanta. None of these teams are pushovers but it's the easiest stretch of what has been a pretty grueling schedule.

People will laugh but they are shaping up to be a pretty good team very soon. 6th in DVOA in the whole league this year. Get those special teams ironed out next season and they could realistically win 12 games.

I actually agree. I think the Saints have been a very good team this year. Brutal losses to the Raiders, Giants, Broncos and Panthers will likely cost them a playoff spot though. But as you stated, they could still do it.