NFL: NFC Playoff Picture

[What the Faulk]

You are looking at defensive DVOA only, although my neighbor was wrong too. They are 11th overall not 6th

Well, yeah. You implied that the special teams were the only thing they had to iron out. They're not very good defensively, either. And Brees is almost 38.

 

[Roboturner913]

Well, yeah. You implied that the special teams were the only thing they had to iron out. They're not very good defensively, either. And Brees is almost 38.

They're not bad on defense though, considering they've had a ton of injuries. They have allowed only one second-half touchdown in their last 6 games since Breaux and Rankins came back from injury. They've been solid.

I don't know how you can say that Brees being almost 38 is some kind of argument. Nobody ever says that about Brady, and he's older. Considering Brees is having one of the very best seasons of his career right now. On pace for 5,000 and 40+ touchdowns easily and he's likely to break the single-season completion percentage record. If they can figure out how to keep teams from blocking their kicks next year they'll be in really good shape.

another supporting metric, Toxic Differential, places them at #3 in the league: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ial-good-sign-for-falcons-bad-omen-for-giants

all this meaning, win-loss record is misleading. They're not your typical 5-6 team, they look more like a 7-4 or 8-3 team.

 

[What the Faulk]

I mean, I don't deny that they're better than their record indicates. Pretty much every team in the South has 3+ heartbreakers that they should have won. And their offense can go toe to toe with anyone in the league. I'm just not sold on the state of their defense. They've got talent like Jordan and Breaux but they've also got a lot of holes filled with mediocrity.

You never know when a QBs will just tail off. Brady is suddenly missing practices with a knee injury. Manning's penultimate season was a tail of two halves. I'm just saying, by the time the defense is ready to compete, Brees is going to be on his last legs.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

So we now have:

1. Cowboys 11-1
2. Seahawks 8-3-1
3. Lions 8-4
4. Falcons 7-5 (ahead of TB due to 3-1 div record vs 2-1 for TB)
WC 1: Giants 8-4
WC 2: Buccaneers 7-5
---
Skins 6-5-1
Vikings 6-6
Packers 6-6
Saints 5-7 (They play TB twice so they still have a shot)

 

[rangerssharks414]

I believe Dallas clinched a spot? I could be wrong.

 

[misterchainsaw]

AFTER WEEK 13: (x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched divison, z-clinched bye, @- clinched top seed *-controls own destiny but not in a playoff spot currently)

1. x-Dallas 11-1
2. Seattle 8-3-1
3. Detroit 8-4
T4/6 Atlanta 7-5 (Currently holds division record tiebreak over TB)
5. New York Giants 8-4
T4/6. Tampa Bay 7-5
-----------------------------------------------------------
7. Washington 6-5-1
T8. Minnesota 6-6 (Currently holds H2H tiebreak over GB)
T8. Green Bay 6-6
10. Arizona 5-6-1
T11. New Orleans 5-7 (Currently holds conference record tiebreak over PHI)
T11. Philadelphia 5-7
13. Carolina 4-8 (Wins H2H tiebreaker over LA)
14. Los Angeles 4-8
15. Chicago 3-9
ELIMINATED: San Francisco

CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Dallas clinches the NFC East with a win
- Dallas clinches top overall seed with a win and a SEA + DET loss
- Dallas clinches a bye with a win and a SEA or DET loss
- Seattle clinches NFC West with a win and an ARI loss

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Chicago is eliminated with a loss
- Chicago is eliminated with a WSH win
- Chicago is eliminated with a TB and ATL win
- Los Angeles is eliminated with a loss
- Carolina is eliminated with a loss and an ATL win

CAN GAIN CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 14:
- Washington with a win and a NYG, TB, or ATL loss

CAN LOSE CONTROL OF THEIR OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 14:
- Atlanta with a loss and a TB + WSH win
- Tampa Bay with a loss and a WSH win

 

[What the Faulk]

I really thought Tampa was going to have a let down going across the country against a decent team after upsetting the Seahawks at home, but that was impressive. They're rounding into form at the right time. Remaining schedules:

Bucs: NO, @DAL, @NO, CAR
Falcons: @LA, SF, @CAR, NO

The Falcons have to be very careful this weekend. I think that game could be closer than they'd like. If they do drop that (or somehow vs SF) and the Bucs lose only @DAL, the tiebreaker goes to SOV. If the Falcons lose a division game and the Bucs don't, Tampa wins it.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Giants essentially 1.5 games back in the NFC East after sweeping Dallas. All of the 8 loss teams are now hanging by a thread, even if they win their games. Detroit passes Seattle and Atlanta clings to the NFC South lead by the slimmest of margins. Meanwhile, Washington could have gained control of their own destiny had any of three teams (TB, NYG, or ATL) lost, but none did and so the Skins must still hope for help. Green Bay and Minnesota also receive absolutely no help this week.

AFTER WEEK 14: (x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched divison, z-clinched bye, @- clinched top seed)

1. x-Dallas 11-2
2. Detroit 9-4
3. Seattle 8-4-1
T4. Atlanta 8-5 (Leads division over TB via common opponents tiebreaker)
5. New York Giants 9-4
T4. Tampa Bay 8-5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
7. Washington 7-5-1
T8. Minnesota 7-6 (Currently leads H2H tiebreaker with Green Bay)
T8. Green Bay 7-6
9. Arizona 5-7-1
T11. New Orleans 5-8 (Leads CAR inside of divison via common opponents tiebreaker, has clinched conference record tiebreaker with PHI)
T11. Carolina 5-8 (Has clinched conference record tiebreaker with PHI)
13. Philadelphia 5-8
ELIMINATED: Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco

- Dallas controls destiny for #1 seed + NFC East (obviously), Detroit controls destiny for bye + NFC North. All teams currently leading divisions control their own destiny for that division and all teams currently in a wild card spot currently control their own destiny for a wild card spot. No one currently out of a spot controls their own destiny.


CLINCHING SCENARIOS:
- Dallas clinches NFC East and first round bye with a win and a NYG loss
- Dallas clinches #1 seed with a win, NYG loss, and a DET loss
- Detroit clinches NFC North with a win and a GB loss.
- Seattle clinches NFC West with a win or an ARI loss.
- New York Giants clinch a playoff spot with a win, MIN loss, WSH and GB loss.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Arizona, New Orleans, Carolina, and Philadelphia are eliminated with a loss.
- Arizona, New Orleans, Carolina, and Philadelphia are eliminated with a TB and ATL win.
- Philadelphia is eliminated with a TB, ATL, or WSH win.
- Arizona and Philadelphia are eliminated with a GB and MIN win. (Technically, Arizona would still be hanging by a thread, since GB/MIN later in the year could end in a tie and ARI would win a potential three way tiebreak at 8-7-1 vs WSH and MIN....but I'm not dealing with ties )
- New Orleans and Carolina are eliminated with a GB + MIN win AND a TB or ATL win
- Carolina is eliminated with a GB win, TB OR ATL win, and a PHI loss
- Carolina is eliminated with a GB win, a MIN win OR PHI loss, and a NO win
- Minnesota is eliminated with a loss, WSH win, ATL win, and TB win.

CAN GAIN CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 14:
- Detroit can gain control of destiny in race for #1 seed with a win and a DAL loss.
- Seattle gains control of destiny for a bye with a win and a DET loss.
- Washington for wild card spot with a win + a NYG or TB loss.
- Green Bay controls destiny of the NFC North with a win and a DET loss
- Tampa Bay controls destiny of the NFC South division with a win and a ATL loss

CAN LOSE CONTROL OF OWN DESTINY IN WEEK 14:
- Atlanta loses control of NFC South with a loss (If TB loses too tiebreakers would go down to strength of victory if both win out the last two weeks)
- Atlanta loses control of their own destiny for a WC spot with a loss, WSH win, and NYG win.
- Tampa Bay loses control of their own destiny for a WC spot with a loss, WSH win, and NYG win.
- Tampa Bay loses control of their own destiny for a WC spot with a loss, DET win, and GB win.

 

[MMC]

- Seattle clinches NFC South with a win or an ARI loss.

What a turn of events this would be.

 

[MMC]

And today I experienced heartbreak yet again.

 

[c9777666]

The NFC North seems lined up for GB-DET in week 17.

But Green Bay is still tied with the Vikings in the standings- and MIN won in week 2. So basically if the Packers lose to MIN or maybe CHI (and they better be careful- it's a trap game after SEA and before MIN/DET).

The Packers can't take the Bears too lightly (remember, GB has stubbed their toe against the lesser likes recently- lost to IND, barely beat JAX, trailed the Bears at halftime at home in October).

 

[misterchainsaw]

What a turn of events this would be.

Doh! Fixed.

The NFC North seems lined up for GB-DET in week 17.

But Green Bay is still tied with the Vikings in the standings- and MIN won in week 2. So basically if the Packers lose to MIN or maybe CHI (and they better be careful- it's a trap game after SEA and before MIN/DET).

The Packers can't take the Bears too lightly (remember, GB has stubbed their toe against the lesser likes recently- lost to IND, barely beat JAX, trailed the Bears at halftime at home in October).

I was actually surprised Minnesota can be eliminated this week with a loss regardless of what GB and DET do. The sweep at the hands of the Lions absolutely kills them in that respect; even if they sweep GB and it ends up a 3-way tie at 9-7 Green Bay ends up winning the tiebreaker and Minnesota would fall all the way to 3rd in the division (and a loser of tiebreakers vs. both NFC South teams for a wild card).

 

[Canada4Gold]

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS:
- Arizona, New Orleans, Carolina, and Philadelphia are eliminated with a loss.
- Arizona, New Orleans, Carolina, and Philadelphia are eliminated with a TB win.
- Arizona, New Orleans, Carolina, and Philadelphia are eliminated with a GB and MIN win. (Technically, Arizona would still be hanging by a thread, since GB/MIN later in the year could end in a tie and ARI would win a potential three way tiebreak at 8-7-1 vs WSH and MIN....but I'm not dealing with ties )
- New Orleans, Carolina, and Philadelphia are eliminated with a WSH win.
- Minnesota is eliminated with a loss, WSH win, ATL win, and TB win.

Not going to check them all but I did some math for my Panthers last night and some of these are wrong.

Tampa win doesn't eliminate Carolina on its own since it could get a WC at 8-8 if the Falcons lose out. h2h with Atlanta tied, division record tied, common games tied, Carolina would be ahead on Conference record and then move on to see if they are better than teams in other divisions for the WC.

Carolina not eliminated with a GB& MIN win because they could still win the division. Would require winning out, Tampa and Atlanta losing out, and NO losing to Arizona(to avoid NO getting into a 4 way 8-8 tie which NO would win on common games).

The playoff machine has a Tampa beating Carolina tiebreaker on common games glitch for some weird reason. That would actually be tied, and Carolina would have the tiebreaker over Tampa on conference record.

By my count these are the elimination scenarios for Carolina this week if we ignore ties.

- CAR loss
- TB win and ATL win
- TB win, GB win, MIN win
- ATL win, GB win, MIN win
- TB win, GB win, PHI loss
- ATL win, GB win, PHI loss
- GB win, MIN win, NO win
- GB win, PHI loss, NO win

Scenarios 5 and 6 exist because a TB or ATL win would eliminate them from the division, then a GB win would require MIN to beat GB next week which would give MIN the tiebreaker over GB if they all lost out besides for that(which CAR would require), MIN also has the tiebreaker over CAR on h2h, so we'd have to get PHI involved in the 8-8 tie and PHI beat MIN and didn't play CAR so h2h sweep doesn't happen so CAR would advance on conference record.

It wouldn't be a for sure elimination, as you could still squeeze WAS into this 8-8(7-7-2) tie by including a tie for them in the future which would also see CAR advance on conference record(h2h sweep not in affect, WAS def. MIN, CAR def. WAS(this week), MIN def. CAR). But ignoring ties and all.

Scenario 7 exists because the NO win eliminates CAR from the division as NO would have to then win out to keep ATL and TB at 8-8, which would put NO at 8-8 and they'd win a 4 way 8-8 tie on common games. Then the MIN/GB wins eliminate CAR from the 2nd WC

Scenario 8 is a combo on 5/6 and 7. The PHI loss/GB win would eliminate CAR from the WC barring a WAS tie in the future, and the NO win would eliminate them from the division

So in reality 5, 6 and 8 aren't elimination scenarios as a tie could happen. And then there's a bunch of tie scenarios that could happen this week to eliminate them as week including but not limited to, CAR tie, TB tie + ATL tie/win, ATL tie + TB win, TB or ATL win/tie + GB win/tie + MIN win, TB or ATL win/tie + GB tie + MIN win, and so on and so on.

edit: Including tie scenarios and thus eliminating 5/6/8 from above and condensing a little bit leaves the follow 6 elimination scenarios for the Panthers

1. CAR loss/tie
2. TB win/tie + ATL win/tie
3. TB/ATL win/tie + GB win/tie + MIN win
4. TB/ATL win/tie + GB win + MIN tie
5. GB win/tie + MIN win + NO win
6. GB win + MIN tie + NO win

 

[misterchainsaw]

Not going to check them all but I did some math for my Panthers last night and some of these are wrong.

Tampa win doesn't eliminate Carolina on its own since it could get a WC at 8-8 if the Falcons lose out. h2h with Atlanta tied, division record tied, common games tied, Carolina would be ahead on Conference record and then move on to see if they are better than teams in other divisions for the WC.

Carolina not eliminated with a GB& MIN win because they could still win the division. Would require winning out, Tampa and Atlanta losing out, and NO losing to Arizona(to avoid NO getting into a 4 way 8-8 tie which NO would win on common games).

The playoff machine has a Tampa beating Carolina tiebreaker on common games glitch for some weird reason. That would actually be tied, and Carolina would have the tiebreaker over Tampa on conference record.

By my count these are the elimination scenarios for Carolina this week if we ignore ties.

- CAR loss
- TB win and ATL win
- TB win, GB win, MIN win
- ATL win, GB win, MIN win
- TB win, GB win, PHI loss
- ATL win, GB win, PHI loss
- GB win, MIN win, NO win
- GB win, PHI loss, NO win

Scenarios 5 and 6 exist because a TB or ATL win would eliminate them from the division, then a GB win would require MIN to beat GB next week which would give MIN the tiebreaker over GB if they all lost out besides for that(which CAR would require), MIN also has the tiebreaker over CAR on h2h, so we'd have to get PHI involved in the 8-8 tie and PHI beat MIN and didn't play CAR so h2h sweep doesn't happen so CAR would advance on conference record.

It wouldn't be a for sure elimination, as you could still squeeze WAS into this 8-8(7-7-2) tie by including a tie for them in the future which would also see CAR advance on conference record(h2h sweep not in affect, WAS def. MIN, CAR def. WAS(this week), MIN def. CAR). But ignoring ties and all.

Scenario 7 exists because the NO win eliminates CAR from the division as NO would have to then win out to keep ATL and TB at 8-8, which would put NO at 8-8 and they'd win a 4 way 8-8 tie on common games. Then the MIN/GB wins eliminate CAR from the 2nd WC

Scenario 8 is a combo on 5/6 and 7. The PHI loss/GB win would eliminate CAR from the WC barring a WAS tie in the future, and the NO win would eliminate them from the division

So in reality 5, 6 and 8 aren't elimination scenarios as a tie could happen. And then there's a bunch of tie scenarios that could happen this week to eliminate them as week including but not limited to, CAR tie, TB tie + ATL tie/win, ATL tie + TB win, TB or ATL win/tie + GB win/tie + MIN win, TB or ATL win/tie + GB tie + MIN win, and so on and so on.

edit: Including tie scenarios and thus eliminating 5/6/8 from above and condensing a little bit leaves the follow 6 elimination scenarios for the Panthers

1. CAR loss/tie
2. TB win/tie + ATL win/tie
3. TB/ATL win/tie + GB win/tie + MIN win
4. TB/ATL win/tie + GB win + MIN tie
5. GB win/tie + MIN win + NO win
6. GB win + MIN tie + NO win

hmm. Looks like you're right. Teach me to group a bunch of 8-8 teams together. I don't know what I did with that mess of NFC South teams to mess that up haha. Just lumped them all in together I guess

Philly is still eliminated with a TB win (can't win their divison, can't win tiebreakers with, well, anybody since there will at least be someone else at 8-8 or better in the WC race making their win over Minnesota meaningless for the last wild card spot.) New Orleans is eliminated with the first 4 of your scenarios, but not the equivalents to your last 4, since they don't have to worry about a H2H situation with Minnesota and have the tiebreaker over Carolina at 8-8.

Again, disregarding all ties. If you're sitting at 5-8 (or 6-8) needing a tie, you're out of it

 

[Canada4Gold]

hmm. Looks like you're right. Teach me to group a bunch of 8-8 teams together. I don't know what I did with that mess of NFC South teams to mess that up haha. Just lumped them all in together I guess

Philly is still eliminated with a TB win (can't win their divison, can't win tiebreakers with, well, anybody since there will at least be someone else at 8-8 or better in the WC race making their win over Minnesota meaningless for the last wild card spot.) New Orleans is eliminated with the first 4 of your scenarios, but not the equivalents to your last 4, since they don't have to worry about a H2H situation with Minnesota and have the tiebreaker over Carolina at 8-8.

Again, disregarding all ties. If you're sitting at 5-8 (or 6-8) needing a tie, you're out of it

If you're using ESPN's playoff machine like I said above they have Tampa having the tiebreaker over Carolina on common games which is wrong so that could have been part of it. If that were correct it would eliminate Carolina from the division immediately and if Tampa didn't win the division eliminate them from the WC so 1 result here or there would potentially eliminate them.

Carolina also has the tiebreaker over a lot of these teams given their poor OOC record means a relative good in conference record, and catching teams for the division ties divisional record, common games are tied for all except NO so Carolina would then have tiebreakers over most of these teams because of conference record again.

The only 2 teams I can see that Carolina loses to in a tiebreaker is NO and a 2 team tie with MIN.

So it's tougher for some of these other 5-8 teams than Carolina so some of these 1 results are likely correct in eliminating them, Carolina's become more intricate for 2 reasons, 1. having tiebreakers over almost everyone, and 2. still having the slight divisional possibility open means for each scenario you have to both eliminate the chance at the division, and eliminate the chance at a WC which except for Carolina losing takes at least 2 results

edit: I think New Orleans are probably also wrong for the same reasons, can win division, and has good tiebreakers. Some guy posted them somewhere else and it was as follows

1. Loss/tie
2. ATL win/tie + TB win/tie
3. WAS win + TB win/tie
4. WAS win + ATL win/tie
5. TB win/tie + MIN win + GB win/tie
6. TB win/tie + MIN tie + GB win
7. ATL win/tie + MIN win + GB win/tie
8. ATL win/tie + MIN tie + GB win

The rest of the 5-8's and 5-7-1's are probably pretty simple.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I'm actually using nflplayoffpredictor.com, which seems to work fine. I think I had both TB and ATL set to week 15 wins and thought ATL was set to a loss for some reason.

Anyway, I believe my post is correct for both Carolina and New Orleans now. Didn't look like Arizona (who don't really have tiebreakers to worry about except WSH) and Philly changed.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm actually using nflplayoffpredictor.com, which seems to work fine. I think I had both TB and ATL set to week 15 wins and thought ATL was set to a loss for some reason.

Anyway, I believe my post is correct for both Carolina and New Orleans now. Didn't look like Arizona (who don't really have tiebreakers to worry about except WSH) and Philly changed.

Yeah, that one appears to be accurate. The reason I like espn's however is because it tells you how the tiebreakers went, so you can check to see, ok this team won this tiebreaker because common games or whatever, that one you're using you can manipulate the games and get the correct information but you have to figure out why.

Which isn't a problem, I know the tiebreakers well enough, but for the average user.

I also like trying to get far enough down the tiebreaker order to the "Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed." step. Just once I want that step to actually come into play. Last year IIRC it was possible to have that happen entering the last week. 1 team needed some weird 5 or 6 results that seemed completely unrealted because it was involving SOV and SOS. Using yours I did that with TB and GB for the 2nd WC spot, but when I slot the same results into the ESPN one it tells me "Tampa Bay wins on common opponents" the same issue I had with Carolina.

Anyway, wanted to post the link to that scenario in case they fix the issue before next weeks games so I can see if that's in fact for sure what's happening

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/mac...0874643~1~400874692~1~400874699~2~400874647~2.

 

[Tuggy]

Ran through the playoff machine, got:

#1 - Dal
#2 - Sea

#3 - Atl
#4 - GB
#5 - Was
#6 - NYG

WC weekend:
NYG @ Atl
Was @ GB

 

[What the Faulk]

Well, Carolina is down to 1 scenario to make the playoffs.

1. Win out (@WAS, ATL, @TB)
2. Bucs lose out (@NO, vs. CAR)
3. Vikings beat Packers in Green Bay
4. Packers and Vikings lose W17 (@DET/vs. CHI)
5. New Orleans loses to Atlanta in W17.
6. Redskins pick up 1 more tie (@CHI, vs. NYG) and lose the other.

If everything happens except number 5, the Saints are in. They actually only need two Redskins losses, but the Panthers need the tie because they lose the head to head tiebreaker vs. Minnesota and need the Redskins to create a 3-way tie (7-7-2 = 8-8). NO just wins the 2-way vs. the Vikings.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

After a complete no show yesterday the Vikings need all of the following to happen to get in:

1. Win out
2. Tampa lose out
3. Redskins go 1-2 or 0-3
4. Need Detroit to win 1 of their final 2 and avoid a 3 way tie in the NFC North

 

[KaseMeOutside]

NFC is going to have some very interesting matchups, a lot of parity this year.

 

[Street Hawk]

NFC is going to have some very interesting matchups, a lot of parity this year.

Most definitely.

Dallas, I am assuming will get the #1 seed. Seattle, if they win out and it appears that they should with AZ at home and SF on the road left, will get the #2 seed and a much needed bye, since theirs was back in week 5.

Leaves Detroit and Atlanta leading their divisions. Giants are pretty much set as the #1 WC seed.

GB and still win the North or get a WC.
Wash can lead the #2 WC if they beat CAR on Monday night

TB can still catch ATL or get a WC.

I don't think MIN will get in.

So, my gut says:

1) DAL
2) SEA
3) ATL
4) DET
5) NYG
6) WAS

 

[canuckster19]

Most definitely.

Dallas, I am assuming will get the #1 seed. Seattle, if they win out and it appears that they should with AZ at home and SF on the road left, will get the #2 seed and a much needed bye, since theirs was back in week 5.

Leaves Detroit and Atlanta leading their divisions. Giants are pretty much set as the #1 WC seed.

GB and still win the North or get a WC.
Wash can lead the #2 WC if they beat CAR on Monday night

TB can still catch ATL or get a WC.

I don't think MIN will get in.

So, my gut says:

1) DAL
2) SEA
3) ATL
4) DET
5) NYG
6) WAS

The only potential upset I see is NYG going into Detroit, but I don't see any of those 4 being able to go into Seattle or Dallas and winning. NFC Championship is Dallas-Seattle IMO.

If the Packers make the playoffs though, well, I can see them beating both Dallas and Seattle.

 

[c9777666]

The NFC-CG is probably gonna end up being Giants-Packers.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

I think it will end up

Giants-Lions
Washington-Falcons

Then

Lions-Cowboys
Atlanta-Seattle

Atlanta-Cowboys

Cowboys