Next 2018 Actual Off-Season Thread

[GKJ]

Previous thread: https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2018-actual-off-season-thread.2511319/

Note: for at least the time being we are returning to 1000-post limits across all forums. Try to make the posts good if you want them to last longer

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[Embiid]

Hey hey...ho ho....Hakstok is still a no go....

 

[DancingPanther]

998 posts to go.

 

[mja]

Putting my irrational fan cap on and thinking out loud...

If the hold up with the EK deal is Melnyk is just insisting on Ryan going in the deal, could we swing it?

We'd have to ship salary out to make it work for 2019-20 & after. A-Mac & Weise cover Ryan and would have to go in the deal just to make the salaries work. So then we'd have to have cap left over to budget for Provorov & Konecny getting raises. Lehtera, Simmonds, & at least one of the goaltenders expiring roughly gets you there, after you trade Wayne for futures and replace all of them on the roster with guys on ELCs. That leaves roughly 13 million or so in cap space, not including any raises in the limit after next season, to extend EK & fill out the rest of the roster, not including other guys with expiring contracts and cap space they take up like Raffl, Weal, & the other tender. That seems tight but is doable, I guess?

How buy-outable is Ryan's contract? Would we have to protect him in an ED? You'd have to think that taking Ryan's contract on fully with no retention and without f***ing around with a 3rd team to make the deal work would lower EK's price substantially, there can't be a helluva a lot of market there.

EK & Ryan for A-Mac, Weise, 2019 1st, Rubtsov, and a conditional 1st in 2020 if EK re-signs or something based on that sort of framework?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

The buyout for Ryan with two years left would be $3.583M, $3.583M, $1.83M, & $1.83M. One year would just be $3.583M & $1.83M.

He’s honestly not really good these days & expensive as all hell. Heavy footed goal scorers tend to not age gracefully & he’s starting to show it at 31.

I honestly doubt Hextall or most GM’s around the league would want to add on that contract.

 

[mja]

The buyout for Ryan with two years left would be $3.583M, $3.583M, $1.83M, & $1.83M. One year would just be $3.583M & $1.83M.

He’s honestly not really good these days & expensive as all hell. Heavy footed goal scorers tend to not age gracefully & he’s starting to show it at 31.

Agreed, but I'd definitely trade 2 years of A-Mac & Weise for 2 years of Ryan, plus at least a year of Karlsson.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Agreed, but I'd definitely trade 2 years of A-Mac & Weise for 2 years of Ryan, plus at least a year of Karlsson.

I wouldn’t. MacDonald & Weise really aren’t even problems at this point contract wise (in Weise’s case completely as he barely plays).

There’s really no way I’d acquire Ryan with Karlsson if I am the Flyers. It’s just not worth the cap flexibility you lose with a big negative contract value Ryan brings the table. It could potentially cost you a player or two you like whether in the current organization or outside down the line.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

It all depends on the price of course, but the more I talk (to myself) about Erik Karlsson, the less I want to trade for him.

The injuries are starting to bother me more than they used to

 

[JayRosehillMVP]

Karlsson is exceptional of course, but I don’t think he’s all that much better than ghost at his role to warrant giving up an arm and a leg.

 

[kudymen]

Wait what, we aint getting the Dave Hakstol thread to 300 again?

 

[Alex K]

EK & Ryan for A-Mac, Weise, 2019 1st, Rubtsov, and a conditional 1st in 2020 if EK re-signs or something based on that sort of framework?

I believe Russian players are insured from being traded to Sens

 

[TheKingPin]

Karlsson is exceptional of course, but I don’t think he’s all that much better than ghost at his role to warrant giving up an arm and a leg.

That’s how I feel. Having Karlsson would likely take away from Ghosts production as well. Guys like EK and Ghost are very rare, we just happen to have one of them. I’m out.

 

[duffy9748]

Tough call on taking Ryan back. If you think you can move him with 2 years remaining on his deal, it’s worth it IMO. You likely get to save a top prospect or 1st round pick in the deal if he’s involved.

 

[ajgoal]

Tough call on taking Ryan back. If you think you can move him with 2 years remaining on his deal, it’s worth it IMO. You likely get to save a top prospect or 1st round pick in the deal if he’s involved.

One of the issues with Ryan's contract is that it's backloaded. Not by much, but he's making 7.5 million in actual dollars over the next four years. So you're not moving him to Arizona for the last two to help them meet the cap floor. He does have a $2 million signing bonus each year, so you might be able to move him after you pay it as the last year of the contract kicks in, but I'd think you'd be otherwise stuck with him.

 

[GKJ]

For us to take Ryan, we're basically banking on another compliance buyout period with the next CBA, probably after 2020. But they better take Lehtera.

 

[tymed]

They'll want Ghost in return for starters. Given the difference in their effectiveness at PP1 role compared to their pricetags, this makes too little sense.

 

[Prongo]

I don’t think they would get a player of Ghost caliber in a trade. If they did, Karlsson would have been moved already. Sanheim seems more likely the top prospect that would be in the package.

If you take on Ryan and that contract, you would need to move salary. Either it be in a trade with Ottawa themselves or elsewhere.

Lehtera, Weal, weise, and Macdonald all would be players that you would have to think about moving. Note not all would need to be shipped out but those are the 4 that could help us afford both.

Karlsson and Ryan next year would probably cost 18.5 million. Or right around that number. It’s tough to find room but it is manageable.

 

[TheKingPin]

One of the issues with Ryan's contract is that it's backloaded. Not by much, but he's making 7.5 million in actual dollars over the next four years. So you're not moving him to Arizona for the last two to help them meet the cap floor. He does have a $2 million signing bonus each year, so you might be able to move him after you pay it as the last year of the contract kicks in, but I'd think you'd be otherwise stuck with him.

Is Arizona still a cap floor team? They seem to be spending a bit more.

 

[ajgoal]

Is Arizona still a cap floor team? They seem to be spending a bit more.

Should have said "For example."

Edit: But yes, essentially they are still a floor team. 23 players, 64 million, including Dave Bolland.

 

[Tripod]

The issue would not be the next 2 years because AMac and Weise can be moved to cover Ryan. It's the year 3 and 4 when all the kids are getting bigger contracts where it would really become an issue.

Note....I think they would want Myers over Sanheim since they already have Chabot as a lefty and not much on the right side. That was a great pairing at the WJC too.

 

[Prongo]

We still have 14 million in cap space and just Hagg essentially to sign.

If Hextall is thinking about winning now with the JVR move it’s the perfect time to add to the defense. Folin doesn’t move the needle in regards to winning.

Hextall hopefully is working on deals for Provorov and Konency.

I would like Provorov signed to 8 years around 6.225-6.875 million per year.

Konency signed for 6 years at number Simmonds is at right now. In the 3.75-4 million range.

That would a combined 10-11.5 million say. If we can manage something like that we should be able to make a few acquisitions to improve this team. Cap rising but I never bank hard on it going up much more than 1.5-2 million.

 

[duffy9748]

I think some prominent organizations with money could be rebuilding soon. With the amount of assets Hextall has put together, it would be wise to move a couple of draft picks(not a 1st) attached to Ryan to clear the cap hit. They’d still have a very deep prospect pool and cap flexibility til 2021-2022.

Something like Gudas+Weise+Allison+Rubstov+2019 1st+2020 1st for Karlsson+Ryan.

That really wouldn’t do anything to hurt the upcoming long term window.

Lindblom-Couturier-Voracek
Konecny-Giroux-Ryan
JVR-Patrick-Simmonds/Trade
Raffl-Laughton-NAK
Lehtera

Still have Frost, Farabee, O’Brien, Ratcliffe, Vorobyev, Laczynski, etc. Trading Simmonds for a quick, young winger would be beneficial IMO. If Ryan stays healthy, a big if, he could put up 50-60 points with Giroux as his C and time on the 2nd PP unit.

Next year, Giroux goes back to Couturier’s wing when Frost is ready.

 

[Tripod]

I think some prominent organizations with money could be rebuilding soon. With the amount of assets Hextall has put together, it would be wise to move a couple of draft picks(not a 1st) attached to Ryan to clear the cap hit. They’d still have a very deep prospect pool and cap flexibility til 2021-2022.

Something like Gudas+Weise+Allison+Rubstov+2019 1st+2020 1st for Karlsson+Ryan.

That really wouldn’t do anything to hurt the upcoming long term window.

Lindblom-Couturier-Voracek
Konecny-Giroux-Ryan
JVR-Patrick-Simmonds/Trade
Raffl-Laughton-NAK
Lehtera

Still have Frost, Farabee, O’Brien, Ratcliffe, Vorobyev, Laczynski, etc. Trading Simmonds for a quick, young winger would be beneficial IMO. If Ryan stays healthy, a big if, he could put up 50-60 points with Giroux as his C and time on the 2nd PP unit.

Next year, Giroux goes back to Couturier’s wing when Frost is ready.

The issue is, I don't think any team takes Ryan unless there is retention, if only picks are coming with him.

 

[DancingPanther]

Guys, why tf would the Sens take any deal where a good young player with the potential to be great is not coming back?

I'm seeing all these garbage proposals with two of our 2nd tier prospects, a first, and a second. Ottawa laighs at that. MAYBE they don't if Ryan is coming back at zero salary retained.

I've said this before. Real life is not based on trade value bars like in NHL 18 where you can pile in 3 B rated prospects and end up fleecing a team because the combined trade value satisfies the algorithm.

Ottawa is going to ask for Ghost + one of our top 5 prospects + 1st + 2nd. Hextall might counter with Konecny as the centerpiece with picks and a B prospect. When ottawa insists on adding one of our best prospects instead of a B rated one, Hextall will decline.

Karlsson isn't going to be traded here. We have a poor man's Karlsson in Ghost and are finally getting to that sweet spot that legit contenders need to be in where they have some nice contributors on ELC/cheapish bridge deals. Those are the most valuable trade chips in the league and the type of player(s) ottawa would target. No use upsetting that to bring in an aging huge contract coming off surgery where half his ankle was taken away and another serious Achilles injury. Especially when that move is perhaps a sideways one, looking at an offensive talent in ghost who is 3 years younger. At best, Karlsson is only marginally worth 6 mil more.

Not worth.

 

[deadhead]

We don't have to chase "names," we'll have a few of our own "names" in a couple years.
Couts, Patrick, Ghost, Provorov, TK, Frost, Farabee, Hart.