Speculation: New vision

[Agent Zub]

What experience and education does Spezza have that supports your view that he "understands hockey and business"?

He has very little experience in business management, hockey management, GM management, & coaching hockey, and I don't think he has studied business (bachelors degree in management) in any detail.

he's lived all of that for his entire life, from the ground up. and he is a hockey nerd.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

What experience and education does Spezza have that supports your view that he "understands hockey and business"?

He has very little experience in business management, hockey management, GM management, & coaching hockey, and I don't think he has studied business (bachelors degree in management) in any detail.

For what's it worth, I remember one of his junior coaches saying Spezza was able to identify subtle strategies the opponents were using while the game was going on, before the coaches were even able to spot it.
He's an intelligent guy and I think he has the makings of a successful executive in the NHL. Personally I'd love to see him here in Ottawa alongside Alfie.

 

[Beech]

What experience and education does Spezza have that supports your view that he "understands hockey and business"?

He has very little experience in business management, hockey management, GM management, & coaching hockey, and I don't think he has studied business (bachelors degree in management) in any detail.

Most Don't. A sizable chunk of all GMs are one time players. (At the NHL level, AHL, etc.).

The business side is typically assisted by an AGM who does have a background in finance, etc.

GM management/Coaching hockey. That is talent evaluation. That is everything. That is you having a good sense of who is good at his job, who is not. who is a good scout and can be trusted. Who is not. who is a good coach, etc. That is near magic/near voodoo. Some guys can do it. Some cannot.

You have 300 junior aged/draft aged players in the CHL. You have to chose the 4-6 in any draft year. And do so relative to where you choose. Or trade up/down.
You have 300 American sources (Colleges, Prep Schools, USHL, etc.)
You have 300 European sources.

A GMs ultimate job is to come down to 6 from ~ 900 and have 1-3 of those 6 become quality NHL players. With 1 becoming an above average. And with 1 every roughly 2 years becoming a star. So that in a 15 year total period, you have 20 players, 15 average to above average, and 6 stars (NO I DON'T MEAN HOFs)

Who cares if you have an IVY league school MBA, or if you are illiterate. Get those 6 right. And everything after becomes easy. Miss enough times and you are sunk. Chose a bust at #15, and watch #16 and 17 become quality players and your demise is inevitable. Chose a quality player at #15 and have #16 and 17 be busts and you are a genius.

 

[Beech]

For what's it worth, I remember one of his junior coaches saying Spezza was able to identify subtle strategies the opponents were using while the game was going on, before the coaches were even able to spot it.
He's an intelligent guy and I think he has the makings of a successful executive in the NHL. Personally I'd love to see him here in Ottawa alongside Alfie.

Charlie Mc.. #14 pick. Take a look at picks 11-14 ahead of him..busts
Patrice B...2nd rounder..HOF lock
David PasternaK #25.. take a look at the entire 2014 darft..all but Leon D taken at 3 is better
Marchand...3rd rounder..star player
David K. 2nd rounder...star

Boston has drafted 5 guys with HOF potential (how many will make it is unknown).. none in the top 5. three are not first rounder. one is a bottom first rounder...and Charlie is a mid table guy.

The key to success?... When you stand at the podium in June an utter "with our xxx pick in the xxxx draft, the Ottawa Senators are proud to select xxxx"....HIT...SUCCEED...

That Hockey lifer, or newbie, MBA or illiterate. Genius or dumb as post...has to hit. No magic.. 2-4 years after you utter those words at the podium, some of these guys had better be with you and productive.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

For what's it worth, I remember one of his junior coaches saying Spezza was able to identify subtle strategies the opponents were using while the game was going on, before the coaches were even able to spot it.
He's an intelligent guy and I think he has the makings of a successful executive in the NHL. Personally I'd love to see him here in Ottawa alongside Alfie.

Then just bring back Heater and give away free pizza again!

 

[Cosmix]

For POHO, I'd want someone who knows the game, someone like Lou Lamoriello or Jacques Lemaire, but keep him the hell away from GM duties. I'm open to a former player who has a clear vision like Shanahan did with TML, but not sure who I'd trust for that role. Not sure if Alfie would want to or if we have anyone who was from Ottawa like Shanahan was from Toronto.

For GM, not sure who I'd pick because literally 25+ gms in the league would be upgrades on Dorion, but I'd like to see someone like Alfie or Phillips involved as an AGM or something that lets them be a part of the organization. Wouldn't mind Trotz being given the role. Anyone that can evaluate pro talent better than Dorion has been able to.

For coach, bring in a proven winner. Julien, Martin, Trotz, heck even Boudreau. No assholes like Babcock that can help make a locker room toxic and give players leverage to have overpay deals which we can't afford (and would have to move out).

Only part of management that I keep is our scouting.

What exactly was Shanahan's "clear vision" for Toronto?

 

[DaveMatthew]

What exactly was Shanahan's "clear vision" for Toronto?

Build a team around their 4 big forwards, prioritizing speed, skill and possession (what the analytics crowd has dreamed of)?

It hasn't worked in the playoffs, but he certainly had a clear vision and has yet to deviate from it.

 

[Cosmix]

Build a team around their 4 big forwards, prioritizing speed, skill and possession (what the analytics crowd has dreamed of)?

It hasn't worked in the playoffs, but he certainly had a clear vision and has yet to deviate from it.

Shanahan was fortunate being able to draft at positions #8 in 2014, #4 in 2015, & #1 in 2016 to acquire Nylander, Marner and Mathews respectively. Then he acquired Tavares. He also acquired a few D. Looks like they went for offensive talent. He also hired Babcock as HC.

I agree his approach has not resulted in playoff success but it did get the Leafs into a playoffs for quite a few years.

The suggestion of the poster whose comment I responded to was to see if he knew what Shanahan's "clear vision" was as he mentioned it and claims the Senators need one.

Are the Senator's engaged in a similar "clear vision" with the drafting of Tkachuk, Stutzle, Sanderson and then trading for Norris (+ Stutzle Pick & others), Debrincat and Giroux? We still need to improve the D.

 

[bicboi64]

What exactly was Shanahan's "clear vision" for Toronto?

I think foremost it was doing an actual rebuild by getting rid of their vets and focusing on drafting and developing their own talent. They traded Kessel and Phaneuf that were just signed and were okay to suck for a few years. He put in each of his own people (Dubas, Babcock, etc...) and were committed to their internal goals.

I want someone for Ottawa who is clear about what he wants for the organization. I don't want a full out rebuild, but I want someone who brings in a fresh philosophy and goals that are different than Dorions. Dorion's current plans have been highlighted with not addressing depth, hoping rookies and vets on the decline will step up to play important roles, and a poor evaluation of pro talent.

I'm fine with our drafting and developing, but I want someone to come in with a clear vision of what it means to go after pro rated talent, what depth looks like, and what expectations to have from rookies and declining vets.

 

[aragorn]

What exactly was Shanahan's "clear vision" for Toronto?

To be a very good regular season team, ... check ... he kind of forgot about the playoffs ... uncheck.

 

[Cosmix]

I think foremost it was doing an actual rebuild by getting rid of their vets and focusing on drafting and developing their own talent. They traded Kessel and Phaneuf that were just signed and were okay to suck for a few years. He put in each of his own people (Dubas, Babcock, etc...) and were committed to their internal goals.

I want someone for Ottawa who is clear about what he wants for the organization. I don't want a full out rebuild, but I want someone who brings in a fresh philosophy and goals that are different than Dorions. Dorion's current plans have been highlighted with not addressing depth, hoping rookies and vets on the decline will step up to play important roles, and a poor evaluation of pro talent.

I'm fine with our drafting and developing, but I want someone to come in with a clear vision of what it means to go after pro rated talent, what depth looks like, and what expectations to have from rookies and declining vets.

I want a new GM too, with a 5 year contract and mandate to get the team into the playoffs. I also want the new GM to determine the coaching staff and scouting staff as he sees fit.

 

[Cosmix]

To be a very good regular season team, ... check ... he kind of forgot about the playoffs ... uncheck.

That seems to be focusing on results rather than objectives.
I think his failure was to not improve his defence.
His major misstep was likely signing Tavares at a high salary and long term.

Dorion seems to be following a similar path by not improving the D. Unfortunately Dorion's results are worse than Shanahan's and his GMs.

 

[JD1]

Charlie Mc.. #14 pick. Take a look at picks 11-14 ahead of him..busts
Patrice B...2nd rounder..HOF lock
David PasternaK #25.. take a look at the entire 2014 darft..all but Leon D taken at 3 is better
Marchand...3rd rounder..star player
David K. 2nd rounder...star

Boston has drafted 5 guys with HOF potential (how many will make it is unknown).. none in the top 5. three are not first rounder. one is a bottom first rounder...and Charlie is a mid table guy.

The key to success?... When you stand at the podium in June an utter "with our xxx pick in the xxxx draft, the Ottawa Senators are proud to select xxxx"....HIT...SUCCEED...

That Hockey lifer, or newbie, MBA or illiterate. Genius or dumb as post...has to hit. No magic.. 2-4 years after you utter those words at the podium, some of these guys had better be with you and productive.

So is that getting a little lucky or having the sunshine on your ass?

You left out 2015. Boston had picks 13, 14, 15. They chose Zboril, DeBrusk and Senyshyn. Chosen 16, 17, 18 were Barzal, Connor and Chabot.

The draft is often a total crapshoot. A little bit of luck and you're a genius.

 

[Beech]

So is that getting a little lucky or having the sunshine on your ass?

You left out 2015. Boston had picks 13, 14, 15. They chose Zboril, DeBrusk and Senyshyn. Chosen 16, 17, 18 were Barzal, Connor and Chabot.

The draft is often a total crapshoot. A little bit of luck and you're a genius.

who cares? Luck or skill. In the end stars must come to your club and must come from all over the draft map.

If they do, and if they do in intervals of 2-3 years. You can sustain a quality club for a long time. If the same 2-3 year interval produces a dead zone... you are guaranteed to fail.

Now..just to talk about the luck a tad more.. you get lucky once or twice...Boston 5 times!!!! yes, 2015 was an f-up of biblical proportions. But that has been surrounded by good before, good after.

Boston has enjoyed almost 55 years of good to great years. (less 2-3 stretches). So about 45 out of the 55 years have been good to great. They must be doing something right!

that podium in June is were you live and die. The Sens took Logan Brown at 11. The Bruins took Charlie M at 14...Lucky? yes. End result, a star versus a bust. One team has accumulated almost twice as many points as the other since 2016. Imagine a right handed D man, next to left handed Chabot?

 

[JD1]

who cares? Luck or skill. In the end stars must come to your club and must come from all over the draft map.

If they do, and if they do in intervals of 2-3 years. You can sustain a quality club for a long time. If the same 2-3 year interval produces a dead zone... you are guaranteed to fail.

Now..just to talk about the luck a tad more.. you get lucky once or twice...Boston 5 times!!!! yes, 2015 was an f-up of biblical proportions. But that has been surrounded by good before, good after.

Boston has enjoyed almost 55 years of good to great years. (less 2-3 stretches). So about 45 out of the 55 years have been good to great. They must be doing something right!

that podium in June is were you live and die. The Sens took Logan Brown at 11. The Bruins took Charlie M at 14...Lucky? yes. End result, a star versus a bust. One team has accumulated almost twice as many points as the other since 2016. Imagine a right handed D man, next to left handed Chabot?

It's a lot more luck than skill.

In Marchand's draft year, Boston chose at 37 overall a player that never played a game in the league. Then chose Marchand at 71, with Lucic chosen in the middle. Stars can come from anywhere

Yes, having McAvoy on the right would make us an instant playoff team.

 

[Beech]

It's a lot more luck than skill.

In Marchand's draft year, Boston chose at 37 overall a player that never played a game in the league. Then chose Marchand at 71, with Lucic chosen in the middle. Stars can come from anywhere

Yes, having McAvoy on the right would make us an instant playoff team.

The Sens need a holly man, not a new GM.

Take a good look at the Sens 2001-2020.
See the near 20 second round picks. See the near 15 fails.
See the 3rd rounders ~ 20 picks, ~ 17 fails

so 20 years, ~ 40 second and third rounders. ~ 8 players made it. That is one every 2.5 years... and only 1-2 became above average and zero became stars. You should have done better if you guessed.
repeat for rounds 4, 5, 6 and in the olden days 7. You get ~ 90 players.. roughly 10 success, roughly 3 above average. ~ 2-3 stars.
rounds 2-7 (for the years a 7 was held) ~ 130 players..~ 18 players ~ 4-5 above average ~ 2-3 stars... 20 years!!
2-3 stars only. 20 years, 130 picks.
You are now putting so much pressure on your first rounders. A team needs 5-6 stars at all times. An 8-10 year prime career. Pretty much means a team needs a star every 1.5-2 years. In 20, that means 10-13 stars. If 3 come from later rounds. That means the first, better produce 7-10. This is a star every 2- 2.8 years from one round only!! Good luck...now you really need good luck.

Bob Lowes was in charge in Ottawa ~ 2014-2016. Take a look at his 3 years. One guy. Thomas Chabot.
He moves to Vegas, check out how piss poor their draft has been 2017-2020.... Vegas has done well because of an insane expansion draft, a hunger for players to be in Vegas and a willingness to blow your brains out on FAs.

Luck, yea it is a factor. Good scouting. Good talent evaluation. Better be there as well.

where all of this started a 100 posts ago was discussing financial/education background? I said luck and talent evaluation. Who cares if the guy is a Nobel laureate or illiterate.