Series Discussion: NDSF: Winnipeg Jets (3) vs Edmonton Oilers (2)

[LowLefty]

Simplified comparisons:
Advantages:

Forwards-Jets
Defence-Slight edge Oilers
Goalies-Jets
Special Teams-Oilers
Coaching (systems, accountability, deployment, adjustments)-Oilers

Due to the significant coaching advantage for the Oilers, they win in 6.

What exactly is the coaching advantage - Tippett will play McD a lot - that's their game plan. The game plan is centered around McDavid and how to get him the puck - that's about it.

The coach that has to match up against McD and his ton of minutes, is the coach that actually has to come up with a plan.
You'd think the plan would be fairly simple -
- Shadow McD and don't double team him or you will be leaving someone open. He is so good at getting puck to the trailer or any other player that we forget about when chasing him around the ice.
- Don't take dumb penalties - we are better off taking our chances with Helle covering mistakes than putting this team on the PP where they will destroy us.

Easier said than done but not complicated.

If Mo lines up Scheif against McD, I'd say Tippett is the better coach only because Mo would be a moron if he goes that route.

 

[surixon]

What exactly is the coaching advantage - Tippett will play McD a lot - that's their game plan. The game plan is centered around McDavid and how to get him the puck - that's about it.

The coach that has to match up against McD and his ton of minutes, is the coach that actually has to come up with a plan.
You'd think the plan would be fairly simple -
- Shadow McD and don't double team him or you will be leaving someone open. He is so good at getting puck to the trailer or any other player that we forget about when chasing him around the ice.
- Don't take dumb penalties - we are better off taking our chances with Helle covering mistakes than putting this team on the PP where they will destroy us.

Easier said than done but not complicated.

If Mo lines up Scheif against McD, I'd say Tippett is the better coach only because Mo would be a moron if he goes that route.

Well both teams are a fire drill in their ends but Tippett's nz trap has given Maurice fits all year. So if there is an edge in coaching going into the series it goes to Tippett just due to the fact he has a scheme Moe cant seem to crack. If Moe cracks it then game on.

 

[puck stoppa]

Well both teams are a fire drill in their ends but Tippett's nz trap has given Maurice fits all year. So if there is an edge in coaching going into the series it goes to Tippett just due to the fact he has a scheme Moe cant seem to crack. If Moe cracks it then game on.

There will be lots of chip ins deep and Jets will get on their Ds crashing and banging. We need to take away their time and space and force mistakes. We can’t force neutral zone passes and feed their transition speed. We can play that style and watching other playoff games they’re much more physical than that redundant regular season. We can play physical and need guys like PLD to step up and use his size and speed. Him and Stastny need to take advantage of their match up which I feel will be favourable. Helly is best in the league, if he plays like it we win.

 

[surixon]

There will be lots of chip ins deep and Jets will get on their Ds crashing and banging. We need to take away their time and space and force mistakes. We can’t force neutral zone passes and feed their transition speed. We can play that style and watching other playoff games they’re much more physical than that redundant regular season. We can play physical and need guys like PLD to step up and use his size and speed. Him and Stastny need to take advantage of their match up which I feel will be favourable. Helly is best in the league, if he plays like it we win.

Hard to be as physical when they have a goalie that can really play the puck. We need to corner dumb or find away to get in behind their defense.

 

[puck stoppa]

Hard to be as physical when they have a goalie that can really play the puck. We need to corner dumb or find away to get in behind their defense.

Soft dumps work, cut the ice in half. There are so many little things that need to be executed in playoffs to be successful. If smith breaks them out back pressure and tight gaps are key to success. Play as a five man unit.

 

[surixon]

Soft dumps work, cut the ice in half. There are so many little things that need to be executed in playoffs to be successful. If smith breaks them out back pressure and tight gaps are key to success. Play as a five man unit.

Yes play as a 5 man unit, something this team has done very little of this year.

The team needs to be dialed in and focused, if they do that they can win. If they play disjointed like they have most of the year they will be shredded.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Lol, why does he have a couple of goats?

he's becoming a country bumpkin

 

[surixon]

he's becoming a country bumpkin

Conner better have a word with him, he's encroaching on his persona.

 

[snowkiddin]

The Oilers are obviously built around McDavid. If they lose him to injury they are completely f***ed. Series over.

If we lose a skater we’ll still have a shot (ironic because last year we were cooked after Scheif and Laine went out). If we lose Helle we are done.

 

[GumbyCan2]

What exactly is the coaching advantage - Tippett will play McD a lot - that's their game plan. The game plan is centered around McDavid and how to get him the puck - that's about it.

The coach that has to match up against McD and his ton of minutes, is the coach that actually has to come up with a plan.
You'd think the plan would be fairly simple -
- Shadow McD and don't double team him or you will be leaving someone open. He is so good at getting puck to the trailer or any other player that we forget about when chasing him around the ice.
- Don't take dumb penalties - we are better off taking our chances with Helle covering mistakes than putting this team on the PP where they will destroy us.

Easier said than done but not complicated.

If Mo lines up Scheif against McD, I'd say Tippett is the better coach only because Mo would be a moron if he goes that route.

McD and Draisaitl pkay so many minutes that you pretty much to plan that your 2nd, 3rd,& 4th lines to play against them, and get your top line out against ??
And, very important, stay out of the penalty box!!

 

[GumbyCan2]

Yes play as a 5 man unit, something this team has done very little of this year.

The team needs to be dialed in and focused, if they do that they can win. If they play disjointed like they have most of the year they will be shredded.

Maybe? But a real chance if they do these.

 

[LowLefty]

Well both teams are a fire drill in their ends but Tippett's nz trap has given Maurice fits all year. So if there is an edge in coaching going into the series it goes to Tippett just due to the fact he has a scheme Moe cant seem to crack. If Moe cracks it then game on.

IDK - it seems we play most of the game in our end - the trap you refer to is nothing more than our forwards having nothing left to get anything going coming out of our zone - I honestly don't see McD and Dria don't a lot of trapping - they don't have to if they are on offense all night.

I didn't see any issue with our checking forwards gaining their zone - I don't see anything special about how the Oilers play D in the neutral zone or their end. But our scoring lines are in a heap of trouble - they need possession in order to made anything happen and with the minutes McD plays, that's a lot of ice time where we are in trouble.

I'm not concerned with the Oilers D - it's their possession time and offense that makes our night long.

 

[LowLefty]

Soft dumps work, cut the ice in half. There are so many little things that need to be executed in playoffs to be successful. If smith breaks them out back pressure and tight gaps are key to success. Play as a five man unit.

Agreed -
Smith will have them going the other way in a hurry if you let him handle the puck -
Playing as a five man unit will work just fine if they close the gap - easier said then done with McD coming down full throttle on your D.
I can see a tight checking game being a potential solution - and that's where the 5 man unit comes in - give their man no space before he has the puck. He also loves to dish it off when he gets pressured - leave him no options and make him work harder - the minutes will catch up to him if he's checked all night.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I agree. But it doesn't work if all of Scheifele, Dubois, Stastny and Lowry play C.

Split McD between Stas, PLD, Ehlers line and Copp, Lowry, Appleton line.

DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT play Scheifele line (it will be CSW) against McD!

First two games are in Edmonton and thus they dictate how the matchups will look for the faceoffs.
I would expect to see a lot of McD vs CSW.
Has our top line ever done an immediate change to avoid a matchup?
I wouldn't count on them starting now.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Who sees the most minutes against McDavid? Lowry or Schiefle? Im guessing it's 50/50.

 

[Heldig]

And from Murat Ates of The Athletic, the lines for the Winnipeg Jets at Sunday practice:

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Lowry-Appleton
Vesalainen-Thompson-Lewis
Harkins-Toninato-Dano

(Copp, Ehlers, in non-contact
No Dubois, Stastny)

 

[schmockeyknife]

And from Murat Ates of The Athletic, the lines for the Winnipeg Jets at Sunday practice:

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Lowry-Appleton
Vesalainen-Thompson-Lewis
Harkins-Toninato-Dano

(Copp, Ehlers, in non-contact
No Dubois, Stastny)

if this is what it is we's gettin smoked

 

[snowkiddin]

And from Murat Ates of The Athletic, the lines for the Winnipeg Jets at Sunday practice:

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Lowry-Appleton
Vesalainen-Thompson-Lewis
Harkins-Toninato-Dano

(Copp, Ehlers, in non-contact
No Dubois, Stastny)

Oh, f***.

 

[ATLbound]

Who sees the most minutes against McDavid? Lowry or Schiefle? Im guessing it's 50/50.

Well i would imagine in Edmonton they will put McDavid out as much as possible against any line that is not Lowry. They likely like the Scheifele match up seeing as how bad he has worked them. When Maurice controls match up's I fear he splits. Because McDavid will play too many minutes for Lowry's line. I would be fine with PLD or Lowry matched against him as much as possible. If we take too many penalties none of this matters. That PP is going to run at 30 percent against us.

Until we know how many of the 4 are playing nothing really matters though, we are going to get rolled bad and fast if we are missing multiple of those 4 guys.

 

[untouchable21]

2006 Oilers, final seed, badly outplayed most of their playoff rounds but somehow willed and squeaked out wins all the way to the finals when they lost their Goalie Dwayne Roloson. Anything can happen when your in the playoffs. We have a top caliber goalie that can win us games. We do have a solid forward group from 1st line all the way to 4th line. We do have some good players on D, and the teams been working on getting their defensive game right for the playoffs. We have a chance, and I'm pumped for what should be an exciting series!

But that 2005/06 Oilers team wasn’t coached by that stubborn tool Maurice.

 

[snowkiddin]

Agreed -
Smith will have them going the other way in a hurry if you let him handle the puck -
Playing as a five man unit will work just fine if they close the gap - easier said then done with McD coming down full throttle on your D.
I can see a tight checking game being a potential solution - and that's where the 5 man unit comes in - give their man no space before he has the puck. He also loves to dish it off when he gets pressured - leave him no options and make him work harder - the minutes will catch up to him if he's checked all night.

Exactly this. If McDavid is playing 30 a night and getting run over and roughed up by Lowry/PLD, it’ll catch up to him.

 

[snowkiddin]

Well i would imagine in Edmonton they will put McDavid out as much as possible against any line that is not Lowry. They likely like the Scheifele match up seeing as how bad he has worked them. When Maurice controls match up's I fear he splits. Because McDavid will play too many minutes for Lowry's line. I would be fine with PLD or Lowry matched against him as much as possible. If we take too many penalties none of this matters. That PP is going to run at 30 percent against us.

Until we know how many of the 4 are playing nothing really matters though, we are going to get rolled bad and fast if we are missing multiple of those 4 guys.

Maurice needs to match Lowry against McDavid 100% of the time when we have last change, but then Scheifele and co. need to feast against the bottom six of Edmonton.

McDavid has been completely invisible (in fact, a bit of a negative since he tends to get lost in his own end and the Lowry line has decent offensive possession) against Lowry. Play Lowry 30 a night and then our top guns need to blow the game open against the lower lines.

What happened last time we had home ice was Lowry blanked McDavid for half the game; Scheifele did nothing when matched up against Khaira. Oilers scored a PP goal and then Maurice (looking for offense) immediately put CSW against McDavid who caved them in right away.

Gotta stick with the Lowry on McDavid matchup whenever possible.

 

[snowkiddin]

So just for fun, I went and looked at the Oilers lineup for a recent game to see exactly how their forwards stack up against ours past McDrai.

Here is where I would expect their forwards (sans McDavid and Draisaitl) to be if they played in our lineup:

*Note, these are logical roles, not Maurice roles. No veteran bias in my assessment.

Kahun: 3rd/4th line
Puljujarvi: 3rd line or so, probably in the Armia role
Nugent-Hopkins: 3C, potentially top six winger on the right side
Turris: Taxi squad
Chiasson: 4th line
Haas: Moose
Neal: 4th line/healthy scratch
Yamamoto: 3rd line, in the Appleton role
Archibald: 4th line/press box
Khaira: Moose
Nygard: Moose
Ennis: Taxi squad
Shore: 4C

As you can see, it’s basically Nuge and a bunch of lower end guys and bums. If we are to win this series, our superior depth will need to make an appearance (or several).

 

[Jets 31]

If we get Vezina Helly we will have a chance to win every game.

 

[Ducky10]

And from Murat Ates of The Athletic, the lines for the Winnipeg Jets at Sunday practice:

Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler
Perreault-Lowry-Appleton
Vesalainen-Thompson-Lewis
Harkins-Toninato-Dano

(Copp, Ehlers, in non-contact
No Dubois, Stastny)