They're not especially good at any one thing on offense and their defense isn't good enough to win a game 58-55 or something like that if the offense sputters. They certainly have the talent but they need a lot of work to be dangerous in the dance, and I don't think they have the coaching to make the necessary improvements.
The team goes as Melo goes. That will be even more true in the Dance, where guard play becomes a much larger piece.
The only solace I have, is that the team has a pretty sparkling record in close games. I don't remember the actual record, but it's impressive.
If Melo gets hot in the Dance, they could win the thing. But if he continues his sophomore slump, then it's probably sweet 16 and then flame out.
And Turgeon isn't a great game coach, or "improve a player" coach. Least, not that I have seen.