Confirmed with Link: Nate Thompson 1 year 750k
- Thread starter gojetsgo
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- Jun 10, 2014
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It isn't about a never ending loyalty to prospects. It is about already having what we need. The problem is not player personnel. It is coaching.
I just totally disagree with your assessment of the players we have. If you were correct about them, then I would agree that we need to be taking steps to improve the bottom 6.
But if our bottom 6 is not good enough, who do you propose we trade to improve it? If Harkins, Roslovic and Appleton are not good enough then we can't trade them for 3 better players. It doesn't work that way. A lot of teams are in a constant churn of players. Trading and trading in the hope of eventually landing the right combination. Occasionally it works out, but usually only after years of spinning their wheels.
The opportunity we had this year was to weaponize cap space. Chevy spent that asset (++) on getting Stastny, who will be 35 before the next season starts. That may work out well, but Chevy didn't take advantage of the situation when he paid to get Stastny instead of being paid to take him. And it used up almost all of the cap space we had available to improve our roster.
I'm happy enough to have brought Stastny back, as long as he is able to get the job done for at least 1 more year. But I don't believe that was the best use of the cap space. Opportunity gone.
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garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
For example:
Adam Lowry took the most defensive zone faceoffs for the Jets.
He took 206 at EV with FO% of 52.4
He took 107 at SH with FO% of 41.1
How many goals is that worth?
1st step: Find out how many more FO a player won than lost.
EV: 10
PK: -19
2nd step: How many goals is that worth? At EV it's about 2.45 goals every 100 FO wins more than you lose, and at PK it's about 3.66.
EV: +0.2 goals
PK: -0.7 goals
So Lowry was averageish at EV and terrible on the PK... what if you replaced him with an elite FO player at 60%...
Lowry: -0.45 goals
Elite: +1.8 goals
A swing of 2.2 whole goals. That's it.
If you change Lowry's FO% at EV to 40% essentially looking at the difference of Lowry being the worst ever FO player vs the best... That's 3.5 goals. That's it. And it's highly unlikely given luck and sample sizes you get a player who is 40% in every situation vs 60% in the other.
Adam Lowry took the most defensive zone faceoffs for the Jets.
He took 206 at EV with FO% of 52.4
He took 107 at SH with FO% of 41.1
How many goals is that worth?
1st step: Find out how many more FO a player won than lost.
EV: 10
PK: -19
2nd step: How many goals is that worth? At EV it's about 2.45 goals every 100 FO wins more than you lose, and at PK it's about 3.66.
EV: +0.2 goals
PK: -0.7 goals
So Lowry was averageish at EV and terrible on the PK... what if you replaced him with an elite FO player at 60%...
Lowry: -0.45 goals
Elite: +1.8 goals
A swing of 2.2 whole goals. That's it.
If you change Lowry's FO% at EV to 40% essentially looking at the difference of Lowry being the worst ever FO player vs the best... That's 3.5 goals. That's it. And it's highly unlikely given luck and sample sizes you get a player who is 40% in every situation vs 60% in the other.
Always blaming the coach IMO gets a little thin after awhile. I'd argue many GMs would be much more aggressive in improving the roster and not believe we are good enough when clearly we aren't. You don't have to trade out 1/2 your bottom 6 but rather make 1 or 2 moves that makes your team better. We are in a unique season and there is still some very good players sitting as UFAs not signed. I've compared Chevy to Sakic who has been very aggressive in improving the Avs roster. The only draft picks in their lineup are for the most part are star players and he has used other draft picks and prospects to get actual upgrades for the team. The same can be said for LV. IMO Chevy is fortunate that he has a very patient owner and fan base that doesn't demand he do more to get better.
I mean let's just ignore that moat of our dcore was traded for or signed in FA.
DeMelo - Trade
Pionk - Trade
Beaulieu- Trade
Forbert FA
Goalie:
Brossoit FA
Then you add our forwards:
Stastney - Trade
Perrault - FA
We only had 4 draft picks this year, and 5 the year before that.
I think its a bit rich to say Chevy hasn't been aggressive at plugging holes. We have traded an awful lot of draft capital the prior 3 seasons to try to win and to improve this roster.
Simple fact of the matter is that Chevy has Spent that capital on more pressing needs like 2C and on our defense. He still has brought in cheap Mauroce approved vets for the fourth line as well.
From the expansion draft Chevy has made 16 trades:
He has parted with:
2× 1st round picks
1× 3rd round picks
3 × 4th round picks
1 × 6th round picks
3 x 7th round picks
Roster players in:
Trouba
Rights to Hayes
Armia
Mason
Prospects:
Lemieux
Foley
DeLeo
Petan
I mean it seems Chevy is quite ok with trading picks and prospects to plug holes. You are comparing us to Colorado which was a team that was still building for the last few years and had different goals with regards to what they were trading for.
Looking at Colorado over that same time period and there isn't much difference outside of the Duchene trade which brought back a kings ransome in futures. We don't have an equivilant asset to trade outside of maybe Laine so expecting that type of haul isn't realistic:
Colorado traded the following away over that time period:
3 x 2nd round draft picks
1 × 3rd round draft picks
2 x 4th round picks
Barrie, Zadorov, Kerfoot, Duchene
So in actuality Colorado traded less in terms of prospect capital but more in terms of roster talent.
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voyageur
Hockey fanatic
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We have to bring in 4th line vets because there isn't a dearth of young forward talent on the Jets. All the early round picks have graduated, and the Moose were filled with AHL vets that never got a chance, like Griffith or Lipon. Shaw was the only one who cracked the team. Vesalainen and Gustafsson are the only two prospects of significance, both still young, otherwise the depth was late round picks, and undrafted players recruited to the Moose. The Jets are going to remain thin, as draft picks are a form of currency, and Chevy used up alot of it to fill holes in the roster, from departures.
- Jun 10, 2014
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Yes, coach blaming gets thin. But when it is always the same problem with the same coach you need to look at the coach.
If you want to argue that Chevy is not aggressive enough, that is another story. I would argue that he has not been aggressive enough with his head coach.
Who are these very good unsigned UFA's? And what does Chevy have left to sign them with? Chevy had opportunity earlier this year. He acquired Stastny. Ammunition all gone.
I'm not sure what all this means but am I out line thinking that he's not worth extending at his current 3 million per year?
I guess Sakic is then just a whole lot better at it then Chevy. For the players and picks you listed above the 2 best of which have since signed as UFAs with other teams (Duchene and Barrie) Sakic has in his line up 2 top 4 defenseman Girard (22 y/o) and Toews (26 y/o) both signed long term to team friendly contracts. Kadri (30) a true #2 center with a couple more years on a team friendly contract, Burakovsky (25) a 2nd line winger, Saad (28) another 2nd line winger and a 4th OA pick they used to select Byram the best defenseman in the 2019 draft class. On top of that he has added important depth players through free agency.
Edit: I forgot to add Bowers (21) a former 1st round selection and promising middle 6 center who looks close to making the jump to the NHL.
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I won't disagree that Sakic has had some success trading but to be fair both orgs were at different places in their windows the last three years.
Chevy spent a lot on rentals in 17-18 and 18-19 as we were in the heart of our window whereas Colorado's window arguably started this past year with the emergence of Makar who put that team over the top imo. Prior to that he was in build mode so traded for longer term solutions.
I am interested in seeing what he does as the Aves are right up against the cap now ans have Makar and their captain to ink next summer. I.e they will be were we were heading into 18-19 so it will be interesting to see where they go with it.
With regards to comparing their recent work;
DeMelo for a third vs. Toews for two 2nds.
I think the players are fairly comparable in effectiveness and we got ours for cheaper.
Stastney for a fourth vs. Sadd for Zadorov
Both Stastney and Sadd are UFA at the end of the year but Colorado won't have the cap to reup him. I would say we got the more valuable piece for cheaper.
Duchene vs Trouba deals:
Pionk and Girard are similar player types
Byram vs Heinola is slanted Colorado's direction but Byram hasn't really impressed since being drafted while Heinola has. Colorado comes out ahead here but Duchene was the more valuable asset being traded so unsurprisingly he returned more.
Kadri deal was a winner for them as they got a mid term fix at 2C and really only gave up a one dimensional pending UFA dmen and a quality third line forward.
Burakowsky was also a solid add for futures but his metrics aren't really all that different from either Perrault or Roslovic's so not a need here.
So really I give Sakic the Duchene deal and the Kadri deal as aggressive moves that really helped his roster.
The other moves weren't anything that we haven't seen here over the years.
IMO Chevy will soon need his team transforming move or 2 or he will be out of a job. We had a brief window which IMO he didn't transition very well from and we are again a bubble team with a mediocre prospect pool and a flawed lineup with far more salary dedicated to scoring wingers then is even close to ideal. I'm mostly a Chevy fan as I think he has drafted well especially in the 1st round and has negotiated well to get us some good contracts, but he is now going into year 10 and are a mid range team with no real bright light at the end of the tunnel. He would already be out of a job in most NHL organizations and even with an owner as loyal and patient as Chipman quietly maintaining the middle ground season after season can only last so long.
Well unfortunately for us we are in an undesirable market so its not so easy to make the types of moves some of the other teams in the league can make. I am waiting to see how we bounce back this season before judging our GM. We had a great roster in both 17-18 and 18-19 and imo we underachieved in 18-19. I have a hard time being overly harsh on Chevy for last year given Buff torpedoed the season at the last minute. Had Buff not pulled out would we really be sitting here saying Chevy hasn't transitioned well?
Is this defense not pretty solid:
Morrissey Buff
Samberg Pionk
Forbert Poolman
Add to that a still very strong forward core and a Vezina goalie and the team should be expected to make some noise.
As for where we are now without Buff imo he has transitioned the forward core just fine. We still have a tonne of skill and our prospects should be able to fill our depth spots fairly well. Maybe add bottom 6 player in FA still and we are far more then fine imo. We have a potential 1C in the system to plug that 1B hole long term.
On defense we have a number of promising prospects that should be able to round out our dcore over the next few years in Samberg, Heinola to go with DeMelo and Pionk. All we are missing there is a top pairing RD and imo that is what Chevy needs to actively pursue next summer after the expansion draft.
I think a big issue with this team is coaching, we imploaded in 18-19 and imo it should have cost Maurice his job. Last year Moe bunkered it down due to Buff pulling out and the results were disastrous. But he will get a mulligan next year and will have to show something different if we expect to be a comfortable playoff team. Imo this team is playing below the sum of its parts and to a large extent I blame a coach who is trying incredibly hard to force players into his type of mold. Most of our players were better individual players in 16-17 and 17-18 when there was more freedom allowed within the system.
I think we have the forward core and goaltending to be more then a bubble team if we get adequate performance from our dcore.
Time will tell what we are next season but I don't believe a team with our forwards and goaltending should be a bubble team.
Also the much vaunted Sakic Avalache teams haven't had any more playoff success then the Jets since he took over. Each org has won two playoff rounds since 2013.
Sakic also had the luxury of inheriating an org with a first overall pick that morphed into a top 3 player in the league.
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voyageur
Hockey fanatic
- Jul 10, 2011
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That's a pretty interesting way to look at stats. I didn't realize Lowry was 41.1% on the PK, and I wonder if that has to do with being forced to take draws on his weakside, as the opposing teams choose the dot now? Can you break that down into a strong side vs. weak side ratio?
Regardless it's interesting to know that the actual variance on PK faceoffs is rather low. But with those numbers for Lowry I wonder if Thompson doesn't get more reps, as a faceoff ace. How much time on average is killed with the opening draw won vs. lost in terms of zone possession?
I’ve always been a Chevy supporter but I’m getting tired of giving Chevy free pass after free pass. It is his team and he is the GM. The onus is on him to make the team better. It is year 10 and I’m ready to point my finger at the top. You may think we have all the talent we need. I disagree.
We don't have all the talent we need but there are maybe two/possibly three teams in this league that have all the elements. Most of those teams lucked into getting lottery picks in can't miss years for top end talent. We like most everyone else have to maximize what you have and take advantage of opportunities to add those rare pieces when you can. No marquee RD looks to have been on the market to get this year outside of Petro so I can't hold it against him not getting one. I think we have enough if used correctly to take a run like Dallas did if things break our way. You can't tell me their roster is anything special.
I'm not giving Chevy a free pass, we had a clusterf*** of a year last year and it will be up to him to get us back to where we where one year ago in 18-19 where many saw us as a cup favorite. I think he's had a pretty good offseason where he has actively gone out and acquired players and player types we need to fill some holes and add some different elements. Sure he could do more and add another piece or two but we still have another month before camp and there are some teams out there that are still very ripe for the picking in Tampa and NYI. We know he has been actively shopping Roslovic and he has actively been looking for another top 4 dmen. If he gets that done and then signs say an Athanasiau in FA then we have a very strong team imo. I just think that Chevy is getting a bit too much heat after one off year where a lot of crazy things happened to this org. If the team flounders again next year after addressing some roster issues then sure I would be looking at punting both him and Maurice and bringing in a new regime.
I mean I don't see how he's gotten free pass after free pass here. He built an elite roster 17-19 and they had one deep runa and one disappointing first round loss. The cup winning lightning had a few poor years before they put it together and won it all this past year. If we trend up next year and win a round or two I think we are back on track as an org. But we shall see, if we have a mediocre year sure clean house.
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Chevy is failing at his job in getting a good coach who will better utilize his players. Who won’t use the players he has to give us 3 offensive lines.
The only player Maurice has on hand to put together a 3rd scoring line that has even once hit 30 points is Perreault. The only real hope for a 3rd scoring line that doesn't involve an upgrade in talent is that Harkins keeps developing like he did last season, Roslovic finds more consistency to his game and is willing to play more in the middle of the ice and that the Ves we see in Liiga is the real deal and he is able to carry it over to the NHL.
We are going to keep disagreeing on this. I see him not giving players the opportunity to succeed and relying to much on Lowry. You keep defending him and in the end we are all in a stand-still. I think even with the tools capable but if they are unproven they aren't going to get a chance with Mo.
Lowry and Copp can at least neutralize other teams top lines. None of our bottom 6 has demonstrated consistent scoring at an NHL level. I understand the give them a chance notion, but this IMO is in contrast to the best teams like TB, Avs and LV who are active at all times in improving their roster.
I still feel like you haven't really addressed any of the points made by Mortimer Snerd and Surixon earlier in the thread. How is anyone supposed to hit 30 points when our third line is a shutdown line with Copp - Lowry - X and they play close to 2nd line minutes, and our fourth is saddled with bad players and plays low end minutes? "Well if we had better players Maurice wouldn't do that" is a circular argument; there seems like no opportunity for anyone to break into this system. We've had plenty of bottom six players over the past few years who had good scoring rates, and we've even fallen backwards into really excellent third lines due to injury that were promptly disassembled when Maurice' preferred template once again became possible to run.
People being tired of the idea that we have a coaching issue doesn't mean we don't have a coaching issue. It's worth considering, isn't it?
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Okay but we are not a desireable location like LV and TB or even Avs. So good luck getting those FA when they clearly state they don't want to be here and we are on many players nm list. We have to do it with our own guys. that means optimizing what we have and giving young guys minutes and chances.
We are not a contender this season, I see it better as a retooling season. Give Heinola and Samberg prime spots. Give the bottom 6 guys like Harkins, Roslovic, Ves more minutes.
And I'm getting a little tired of the notion that every roster solution involves giving the next prospect in line a couple years to demonstrate if they can be a consistent NHL player. If they fail it is the coaches fault so we bring in the next mid round prospect in line and give them a couple years to develop into a consistent NHL player. The NHL isn't a developmental league it is a results based league. And IMO we as a fan base are way to in love with our own prospects.
I used Sakic as an example of a GM that has built his team in another way. The Avs have a grand total of 6 drafted players in their lineup. Landeskog, MacKinnon, Rantanen, Yost, Makar and Timmons. Basically star players drafted high. This is pretty much the how these type of players are obtained. They have then filled out their roster through trades and free agent signings with players that have proven themselves at the NHL level. Sakic uses 2nd and 3rd round picks as assets to get immediate help with established players. LV is even more aggressive with this strategy due to the riches they received in the expansion draft. TB has also built their team this way. Their top 2 lines are all drafted as is their franchise defenseman and #1 goalie. After that there is only 2 drafted players filling out the bottom 6 and defenseman 2-7. I appreciate that we are a less desirable location but after 9 years I would like to see Chevy try to be more aggressive in building a championship before our young drafted core of star player slip through their primes because we had a GM that didn't do enough to build a supporting cast capable of winning a championship.
But you don't always need to be desirable location if you trade for very good young players with team control. Look what the Avs did to acquire both Teows and Burakovsky they traded a combination of 2nd and 3rd round picks for very good RFA players who can fit in age wise with their core group. They also dumped soon to be UFAs that were not in their long term plans (Duchene and Barrie) in time to recoup a riches of young players and futures that added to their roster and were used as assets to add more players to their rosters.
Is that not what we did with DeMelo? I am really struggling to see what your issue is right now.
The Burakowsky example really needs to be put to bed. He spent most of his time last year in their top 6 and is now making second line money as a result. He is a LW and wasn't at all a need for us. Our LW depth is pretty darn good with Conner and Ehelers in the top 6 and Copp (Very effective all around third line player), Perraukt who up until this year was an elite play driving and scoring third line player. We also have system depth to gradually replace Perraukt in Harkins or Ves.
You want your GM to fill roster holes just not trade for players just because. What were this organizations major holes:
2C - Chevy went out and drafted a potential star center and brought in a well respected vet all around second line center that has proven chemistry with the linemates he is likely to play with. Seems to me he went outside the org and addressed the need.
Team defense especially with regards to the ability to break up a cycle and clearing the front of the net. He started trying to fix this last year when he grabbed a strong defensive first top 4 dmen in DeMelo who he retained on a nice deal. He also went out and grabbed a big strong in his own end defensive player in Forbert that should help us out in limiting those high danger chances we were giving up by the boat load last year. Add in Samberg who is big, developed and his calling card is strong defense with a good first pass and that also helps address the weakness. Poolman also showed well near the end of the year.
So to me Chevy has gone out and grabbed players to specifically address the biggest weaknesses on this team.
What other real holes are left on this roster? I can think of really only one major one and that is an elite top pairing RD and there was only one of those on the market this summer and he chose to sign in Vegas.
I want your honest opinion on what more you wanted Chevy to do this offseason? If you are looking at one of the fime a dozen fourth liners on the market then I think you are nitpicking. Chevy really only needs to find that elusive RD and he will have all the foundation pieces in place.
