Confirmed with Link: Nate Thompson 1 year 750k

[surixon]

Not that I don't agree with some of your points but I tend to lay the blame more on Chevy for our bottom 6 production. I'm a big Chevy fan, but most teams are much more willing to move on from their home grown prospects when they demonstrate they are easily replaceable. IMO we have a bad bottom 6 because we rarely if ever try to improve it in any significant way. We rely almost totally on later round draft picks to fill all bottom 6 spots, augmented by a "good" vet or 2. Then we blame Maurice when they don't produce. I'd argue that we give Maurice a more talented bottom 6 and see what he does with it. You mention TB as allowing players from lines 1-4 to play within the confines of their system, but fully 1/2 of their bottom 6 in the playoffs were aquired in trades because they were better options than internal depth. Then you mention Toronto and we should be more like them, but they went out and added Simmonds, Vesy and Thornton to fill out their bottom 6 this off season. Teams across the league have better bottom 6 players because their GM goes out and gets them rather than only wait on the next available prospect.

I think Toronto has gone backwards and is going to ice an old and slow bottom 6 in large part because they were forced to trade the young fast players that they had there due to being far too top heavy cap wise.

I don't disagree that more talent wouldn't be a problem but imo all you need to do is look at individual scoring rates and ice time distributions on the team over the last few years to spot a pattern. Adam Lowry outside of 17-18 has consistently scored in the bottom 3 in terms of P/60 in terms of forwards on this team but has consistently played low end second line minutes. While he is good defensively playing pretty much a fourth line scoring forward those minutes limits the scoring of the linemates he plays with and that in turn limits the scoring of our bottom 6. When you add say Tanev who also scored at fourth line rates to your third line well it just compounds the scoring issue.

We had other players who scored very well those years that saw some marginalized roles while Maurice types got increased roles:

Dano scored at almost triple the rate that Tanev did in 16-17 (1.55 P/60 which are average third line scoring rates but he did it with fourth line usage) but it was Tanev that got the third line slot the next year and proceeded to produce below average third line scoring rates in 17-18 (1.41 P/60 on a year where Lowry went off and Copp scored well). But the better solution that year would have been to play Armia there as Armia with fourth line usage was producing at elite third line scoring rates (1.7 P/60).

I know Dano isn't everyone's cup of team based on how he looked on the ice but he contributed pretty strong results despite less then favorable usage here. In his three years hear he scored at slightly below average third line scoring rates while being a net neutral relative possesion player while getting fourth line minutes. He is the type of player that with proper usage here would have actually been that talented bottom 6 player that you are looking for. What ended up happening is Maurice played a much more ineffective hockey player in Tanev the bigger minutes because he looked better on the ice (Classic coaching bias and mistake). Tanev despite superior usage scored less, drove possession relatively at a much worse rate.

Roslovic prior to this year also got fourth line minutes despite producing at elite 3rd line scoring rate levels (1.73 P/60).

The simple fact of the matter is that Maurice has had pretty solid scoring talent in his bottom 6's over the years but has continually proceeded to promote his types of player (The high motor muckers) into more prominent bottom 6 roles. Many of those talents (Dano, Armia, Roslovic) were traded for by the org but haven't been optimally utilized by the coach. So I really question why you would think we are just trying to draft our bottom 6. Chevy has taken a pretty diverse approach to it imo.


Really the only player Maurice has consistently trusted to play on his third line that scores at an appropriate level is Copp. As shown we have had a bunch of players who have scored in the realm of average or better third line players with fourth line usage, what do you think these players could do with third line usage in a more balanced role? Well we saw some flashes of that with the 2015 line.

I am sorry KB but I don't agree that it is a talent problem, it is usage problem. As long as Maurice insists on playing a low scoring center big minutes in a checking role with other low scoring players while solid scoring players play token minutes we aren't going to see any change and the less our bottom 6 is going to score, even when you have elite third line scoring options like Roslovic, Armia, Perrault on the team.

 

[KingBogo]

I think Toronto has gone backwards and is going to ice an old and slow bottom 6 in large part because they were forced to trade the young fast players that they had there due to being far too top heavy cap wise.

I don't disagree that more talent wouldn't be a problem but imo all you need to do is look at individual scoring rates and ice time distributions on the team over the last few years to spot a pattern. Adam Lowry outside of 17-18 has consistently scored in the bottom 3 in terms of P/60 in terms of forwards on this team but has consistently played low end second line minutes. While he is good defensively playing pretty much a fourth line scoring forward those minutes limits the scoring of the linemates he plays with and that in turn limits the scoring of our bottom 6. When you add say Tanev who also scored at fourth line rates to your third line well it just compounds the scoring issue.

We had other players who scored very well those years that saw some marginalized roles while Maurice types got increased roles:

Dano scored at almost triple the rate that Tanev did in 16-17 (1.55 P/60 which are average third line scoring rates but he did it with fourth line usage) but it was Tanev that got the third line slot the next year and proceeded to produce below average third line scoring rates in 17-18 (1.41 P/60 on a year where Lowry went off and Copp scored well). But the better solution that year would have been to play Armia there as Armia with fourth line usage was producing at elite third line scoring rates (1.7 P/60).

I know Dano isn't everyone's cup of team based on how he looked on the ice but he contributed pretty strong results despite less then favorable usage here. In his three years hear he scored at slightly below average third line scoring rates while being a net neutral relative possesion player while getting fourth line minutes. He is the type of player that with proper usage here would have actually been that talented bottom 6 player that you are looking for. What ended up happening is Maurice played a much more ineffective hockey player in Tanev the bigger minutes because he looked better on the ice (Classic coaching bias and mistake). Tanev despite superior usage scored less, drove possession relatively at a much worse rate.

Roslovic prior to this year also got fourth line minutes despite producing at elite 3rd line scoring rate levels (1.73 P/60).

The simple fact of the matter is that Maurice has had pretty solid scoring talent in his bottom 6's over the years but has continually proceeded to promote his types of player (The high motor muckers) into more prominent bottom 6 roles. Many of those talents (Dano, Armia, Roslovic) were traded for by the org but haven't been optimally utilized by the coach. So I really question why you would think we are just trying to draft our bottom 6. Chevy has taken a pretty diverse approach to it imo.


Really the only player Maurice has consistently trusted to play on his third line that scores at an appropriate level is Copp. As shown we have had a bunch of players who have scored in the realm of average or better third line players with fourth line usage, what do you think these players could do with third line usage in a more balanced role? Well we saw some flashes of that with the 2015 line.

I am sorry KB but I don't agree that it is a talent problem, it is usage problem. As long as Maurice insists on playing a low scoring center big minutes in a checking role with other low scoring players while solid scoring players play token minutes we aren't going to see any change and the less our bottom 6 is going to score, even when you have elite third line scoring options like Roslovic, Armia, Perrault on the team.

I think the bolded is where we will continue to disagree. I was just looking through other teams and where they acquired their players and I haven't found a team yet who has depended as much as the Jets to fill out their roster with in house draft picks. The starkest contrast is the Colorado Avalanche. They have only drafted 6 out of their projected 20 starters. All of their 1st line (MacKinnon, Landeskog, Ratanen) a promising 10th OA pick in 2016 (Jost) and then 2 of their top 4 (Maker, Timmons) everyone else they traded for or signed as free agents including difference makers like (Burakousky, Kadri, Saad, Compher, Donskoi, Girard, Graves, Toews). In contrast we wait on our mid round draft picks hoping if all goes right they can be adequate depth players. I realize we are not the most desirable landing spot but Chevy needs to get a lot closer to Sakic in acquiring talent if we are going to contend any time soon, and blaming Maurice for it is missing the forest for the trees IMO.

 

[surixon]

I think the bolded is where we will continue to disagree. I was just looking through other teams and where they acquired their players and I haven't found a team yet who has depended as much as the Jets to fill out their roster with in house draft picks. The starkest contrast is the Colorado Avalanche. They have only drafted 6 out of their projected 20 starters. All of their 1st line (MacKinnon, Landeskog, Ratanen) a promising 10th OA pick in 2016 (Jost) and then 2 of their top 4 (Maker, Timmons) everyone else they traded for or signed as free agents including difference makers like (Burakousky, Kadri, Saad, Compher, Donskoi, Girard, Graves, Toews). In contrast we wait on our mid round draft picks hoping if all goes right they can be adequate depth players. I realize we are not the most desirable landing spot but Chevy needs to get a lot closer to Sakic in acquiring talent if we are going to contend any time soon, and blaming Maurice for it is missing the forest for the trees IMO.

Well its the chicken and egg thing here. As long as we have a coach that wants to use two of Copp/Lowry on his third line then what is the point in Chevy expending assets for quality players. Really as I mentioned go out and sign another speedster to play with Lowry/Copp but other then that two thirds of this teams third line are set in the coaches mind and has been set for years despite having other talent to work with.

No I don't we will agree on this and that is fine.

 

[voyageur]

I think the bolded is where we will continue to disagree. I was just looking through other teams and where they acquired their players and I haven't found a team yet who has depended as much as the Jets to fill out their roster with in house draft picks. The starkest contrast is the Colorado Avalanche. They have only drafted 6 out of their projected 20 starters. All of their 1st line (MacKinnon, Landeskog, Ratanen) a promising 10th OA pick in 2016 (Jost) and then 2 of their top 4 (Maker, Timmons) everyone else they traded for or signed as free agents including difference makers like (Burakousky, Kadri, Saad, Compher, Donskoi, Girard, Graves, Toews). In contrast we wait on our mid round draft picks hoping if all goes right they can be adequate depth players. I realize we are not the most desirable landing spot but Chevy needs to get a lot closer to Sakic in acquiring talent if we are going to contend any time soon, and blaming Maurice for it is missing the forest for the trees IMO.

Colorado's fortunes changed with the Duchene trade. That wasn't a player for player trade, which is what many suggest a Laine trade should be. Before that trade Colorado didn't have the talent or depth to match the Jets in spite of having a #1 OA, 2 OA, and 3OA pick in their lineup. And wasn't until a 4OA joined the team that they became contenders. Sakic has been more active in the trade and FA market since Girard and Makar solidified the defense, which made them contenders.

Draft and develop is the only way we stay in contention. I think the scouting department is the bread and butter of the Jets organization.

 

[KingBogo]

Well its the chicken and egg thing here. As long as we have a coach that wants to use two of Copp/Lowry on his third line then what is the point in Chevy expending assets for quality players. Really as I mentioned go out and sign another speedster to play with Lowry/Copp but other then that two thirds of this teams third line are set in the coaches mind and has been set for years despite having other talent to work with.

No I don't we will agree on this and that is fine.

You give Maurice the same lineup as the Avs I'd guess the usage would be pretty similar to Bednar's. Again IMO it is up to Chevy to give him the players. If and when Maurice has that type of lineup and plays a good vet instead I will agree with you fully.

 

[LowLefty]

Well its the chicken and egg thing here. As long as we have a coach that wants to use two of Copp/Lowry on his third line then what is the point in Chevy expending assets for quality players. Really as I mentioned go out and sign another speedster to play with Lowry/Copp but other then that two thirds of this teams third line are set in the coaches mind and has been set for years despite having other talent to work with.

No I don't we will agree on this and that is fine.

I think he uses these two on the third line because they are effective in the minutes they play -maybe not offensively but at least they are able to compete in a shut down role up and down the apposing lineup.
What's left to make up the forth line is really the issue - are they going to be as effective with 3rd line minutes? The discussion then swings back to Chevy and what he has provided.
If we want to go in another direction with bottom 6 minutes, I'd think both Copp and Lowry need to go to open up $'s for other possibilities including options on the open market (if possible). I personally have no issue with that but the lineup needs to change for that to happen - and I'm referring mainly to the third line as a scoring option. In todays cap, I don't see how you ice a 4th line that isn't made up of sub $1M contacts - especially if you are icing an fairly expensive top 6.

 

[surixon]

I think he uses these two on the third line because they are effective in the minutes they play -maybe not offensively but at least they are able to compete in a shut down role up and down the apposing lineup.
What's left to make up the forth line is really the issue - are they going to be as effective with 3rd line minutes? The discussion then swings back to Chevy and what he has provided.
If we want to go in another direction with bottom 6 minutes, I'd think both Copp and Lowry need to go to open up $'s for other possibilities including options on the open market (if possible). I personally have no issue with that but the lineup needs to change for that to happen - and I'm referring mainly to the third line as a scoring option. In todays cap, I don't see how you ice a 4th line that isn't made up of sub $1M contacts - especially if you are icing an fairly expensive top 6.

I do agree that cap considerations play a role. Having said that I think the bigger issue is Perrault's deal and usage and caliber of play the last few years. I think you can easily have one moderately priced player on your fourth line in Lowry. Copp scores well enough that he could fit in on a third scoring line imo. I have stated icing a Copp-Roslovic- Ves line would likely be effective. That would leave Harkins Lowry and Appelton to round out the bottom six.

There really isn't a reason to not to split both Copp and Lowry up. The parings effectiveness wasn't great this year, no reason not to try something different.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This doesn't really change my point. Good teams go out and acquire what they need, we instead spend year after year complaining about whatever prospect we like best not getting a chance to develop into that role if all things would just line up perfectly for them. I'm hopeful for Harkins as he seems to be a late bloomer and has a reputation for working extremely hard to improve his game. Saying that if he hasn't pushed his way into the #3 C or at least a mainstay as a winger on the 3rd line I'd be fine moving on from him as well.

The thing is that I think we already have what we need to have a very good bottom 6. No need to give up assets to get it. It is not the prospects, or call them players now, that are the problem. It is that they are not being used optimally. It isn't that we demand a perfect set up for each prospect. Nobody gets that. Just make use of the talents our players have. Stop trying to make the players fit the coach. The coach needs to learn to fit his players. It isn't about developing prospects. They are developed. Just use them.

You are saying that you want Harkins to turn into Copp or you will move on from him too. Meanwhile Copp wants out because he isn't getting the opportunity he wants.

The only difference between the players we have and the players you want to get is the usage they have had. Top 6 players are allowed to be all offense, no defense - and Maurice doesn't think he even needs to coach them anymore. Meanwhile bottom 6 players are required to be all defense, no offense even though their skills are primarily offensive, or even 2 way. Can't have that. 2 way players don't fit the mold.

 

[surixon]

You give Maurice the same lineup as the Avs I'd guess the usage would be pretty similar to Bednar's. Again IMO it is up to Chevy to give him the players. If and when Maurice has that type of lineup and plays a good vet instead I will agree with you fully.

Well yeah he would use them but then again he wouldn't have Lowry or Copp in that scenario to run as his checking line either. Maurice has chosen to run a certain type of third line and as @LowLefty has put it that influences the player types we get to round that line out.

 

[surixon]

The thing is that I think we already have what we need to have a very good bottom 6. No need to give up assets to get it. It is not the prospects, or call them players now, that are the problem. It is that they are not being used optimally. It isn't that we demand a perfect set up for each prospect. Nobody gets that. Just make use of the talents our players have. Stop trying to make the players fit the coach. The coach needs to learn to fit his players. It isn't about developing prospects. They are developed. Just use them.

You are saying that you want Harkins to turn into Copp or you will move on from him too. Meanwhile Copp wants out because he isn't getting the opportunity he wants.

The only difference between the players we have and the players you want to get is the usage they have had. Top 6 players are allowed to be all offense, no defense - and Maurice doesn't think he even needs to coach them anymore. Meanwhile bottom 6 players are required to be all defense, no offense even though their skills are primarily offensive, or even 2 way. Can't have that. 2 way players don't fit the mold.

Pretty much this! Our roster is all specialized. You are either offense or defense whereas we should be trying to ice a balanced roster with balanced players. Imo there are exactly two home grown balanced players on this roster in Copp and Morrissey. Everyone else is skewed too far one way or the other.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Pretty much this! Our roster is all specialized. You are either offense or defense whereas we should be trying to ice a balanced roster with balanced players. Imo there are exactly two home grown balanced players on this roster in Copp and Morrissey. Everyone else is skewed too far one way or the other.

Even those 2 are a little too skewed toward defense, at least right now.

 

[KingBogo]

The thing is that I think we already have what we need to have a very good bottom 6. No need to give up assets to get it. It is not the prospects, or call them players now, that are the problem. It is that they are not being used optimally. It isn't that we demand a perfect set up for each prospect. Nobody gets that. Just make use of the talents our players have. Stop trying to make the players fit the coach. The coach needs to learn to fit his players. It isn't about developing prospects. They are developed. Just use them.

You are saying that you want Harkins to turn into Copp or you will move on from him too. Meanwhile Copp wants out because he isn't getting the opportunity he wants.

The only difference between the players we have and the players you want to get is the usage they have had. Top 6 players are allowed to be all offense, no defense - and Maurice doesn't think he even needs to coach them anymore. Meanwhile bottom 6 players are required to be all defense, no offense even though their skills are primarily offensive, or even 2 way. Can't have that. 2 way players don't fit the mold.

The bolded is my fundamental disagreement. The best teams continually add players to maximize their roster and don't feel some sort of never ending loyalty to their prospects. Championship teams have churned over their prospects many times over to build a championship. We don't have anything close to everything we need for a good bottom 6, we have Lowry, Copp and 4-6 hope for the best. Lets just leave this argument. Chevy won't get aggressive to improve the roster and every season posters will be upset our prospects didn't all maximize their potential and we will run through this argument over and over again all the while blaming Maurice. Meanwhile are competitors will add players that make a difference and mercilessly set adrift their prospects that don't pan out, and not look back as they compete for cups.

 

[surixon]

The bolded is my fundamental disagreement. The best teams continually add players to maximize their roster and don't feel some sort of never ending loyalty to their prospects. Championship teams have churned over their prospects many times over to build a championship. We don't have anything close to everything we need for a good bottom 6, we have Lowry, Copp and 4-6 hope for the best. Lets just leave this argument. Chevy won't get aggressive to improve the roster and every season posters will be upset our prospects didn't all maximize their potential and we will run through this argument over and over again all the while blaming Maurice. Meanwhile are competitors will add players that make a difference and mercilessly set adrift their prospects that don't pan out, and not look back as they compete for cups.

Where is this magical cap space to add more proven quality players to the bottom 6 going to come from? We don't have it this year as Chevy used it to plug more pressing holes. He has money tied up in players Maurice likes in Lowry and Copp and also has Perrault who up until this year was full value for his contributions in the bottom 6 despite playing lower minutes on the fourth line.

We have two proven quality third line players in Copp and Roslovic and an elite 4C in Lowry. We also have a vet in Perrault that can still bring third line scoring and solid play driving into the bottom 6 even if he isn't quite a third line talent any longer. We then have a number of promising prospects. That is pretty much what a good many teams in this league is forced to deal with every year. It is up to the coach to get the most out of those pieces. imo the following is a good foundation for a bottom 6:

xxxx Copp Roslovic
Perrault Lowry xxxx

I agree with @LowLefty in that if you want Chevy to bring in more proven quality in our bottom 6 then we are either going to have to sell off an expensive asset for depth and cap space (i.e Duchene for futures that Colorado did) or we are going to have to move out the pricy third line players that we have in Copp/Lowry/Perrault and replace them with other types of proven depth players.

From an inhouse perspective this is what we could have run as a third line for a couple of years now:

Perrault Copp Roslovic

Scoring rates and possession rates of each player 16-19:

Perrault 1.71 P/60, 6.31 rel CF%, 4.82 rel XGF%
Roslovic 1.73 P/60, -.72 rel CF%, -.19 rel XGF%
Copp 1.53 P/60, 2.02 rel CF%, 4.09 rel XGF%

That is a third line combination that can drive possession and scoring chances at an elite level while scoring at an elite level.

In terms of how that would do against some competitors third lines:

Tampa ran this a lot this year:

Johnson 1.80 P/60, 0.6 rel CF%, 0.63 rel XGF%
Gourde 1.48 P/60, 1.7 CF% rel, 1.17 rel XGF%
Maroon 1.73 P/60, -2.1 rel CF%, 0.64 rel XGF%

Seems like our hypothetical combo would have stacked exceptionally well against the cup winners third line.

As mentioned I think its a fallacy that we didn't have talent in our bottom 6. There are very few teams that have had the luxury of icing a player the caliber of Perrault full time in the bottom 6. We just never saw fit to build a third line around him and Copp while filling in a scoring complimentary winger like Roslovic.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

The Flyers thought he was good enough to be on the ice for all 16 of their playoff games. They even traded for him at the TD.

lots of bad deals made at the trade deadline.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Faceoffs are magnified come playoff time. I can think of 2 occasions off the top of my head where we have lost a playoff lead because our centres didn't win a defensive zone draw.

It's a part of the game that doesn't get much scrutiny, but it's an area we can improve on. With Stastny, Lowry, Thompson the Jets will be tough on the draws.

He didn't have much of an impact in Philly, in the playoffs he was hardly used in the defensive zone, but that may have had to do with avoiding matching up against impact centres like Suzuki and Barzal, and not being able to skate with them. I think at this point experience is his best asset, and having veterans, especially one who knows the defensive side of the game well, can help the younger players we are trying to bring into the fold, in practice.

One thing I like is that we are on paper tougher than last year's team, with the additions of Thompson and Forbort. You don't need to goon it up, but there are some tougher opponents in Western Canada, Ottawa looks to be a tougher team, with the additions of Watson and Gudbranson. Montreal can play mean too. I don't think the Jets want to rely on "team" toughness as much as last year, so at least there are some guys coming to town who can play the trenches game, without really impacting the overall skill of our team.

faceoff s are useless year round

 

[voyageur]

faceoff s are useless year round

Faceoffs, especially defensive zone faceoffs are always important.

 

[GumbyCan2]

I think Toronto has gone backwards and is going to ice an old and slow bottom 6 in large part because they were forced to trade the young fast players that they had there due to being far too top heavy cap wise.

I don't disagree that more talent wouldn't be a problem but imo all you need to do is look at individual scoring rates and ice time distributions on the team over the last few years to spot a pattern. Adam Lowry outside of 17-18 has consistently scored in the bottom 3 in terms of P/60 in terms of forwards on this team but has consistently played low end second line minutes. While he is good defensively playing pretty much a fourth line scoring forward those minutes limits the scoring of the linemates he plays with and that in turn limits the scoring of our bottom 6. When you add say Tanev who also scored at fourth line rates to your third line well it just compounds the scoring issue.

We had other players who scored very well those years that saw some marginalized roles while Maurice types got increased roles:

Dano scored at almost triple the rate that Tanev did in 16-17 (1.55 P/60 which are average third line scoring rates but he did it with fourth line usage) but it was Tanev that got the third line slot the next year and proceeded to produce below average third line scoring rates in 17-18 (1.41 P/60 on a year where Lowry went off and Copp scored well). But the better solution that year would have been to play Armia there as Armia with fourth line usage was producing at elite third line scoring rates (1.7 P/60).

I know Dano isn't everyone's cup of team based on how he looked on the ice but he contributed pretty strong results despite less then favorable usage here. In his three years hear he scored at slightly below average third line scoring rates while being a net neutral relative possesion player while getting fourth line minutes. He is the type of player that with proper usage here would have actually been that talented bottom 6 player that you are looking for. What ended up happening is Maurice played a much more ineffective hockey player in Tanev the bigger minutes because he looked better on the ice (Classic coaching bias and mistake). Tanev despite superior usage scored less, drove possession relatively at a much worse rate.

Roslovic prior to this year also got fourth line minutes despite producing at elite 3rd line scoring rate levels (1.73 P/60).

The simple fact of the matter is that Maurice has had pretty solid scoring talent in his bottom 6's over the years but has continually proceeded to promote his types of player (The high motor muckers) into more prominent bottom 6 roles. Many of those talents (Dano, Armia, Roslovic) were traded for by the org but haven't been optimally utilized by the coach. So I really question why you would think we are just trying to draft our bottom 6. Chevy has taken a pretty diverse approach to it imo.


Really the only player Maurice has consistently trusted to play on his third line that scores at an appropriate level is Copp. As shown we have had a bunch of players who have scored in the realm of average or better third line players with fourth line usage, what do you think these players could do with third line usage in a more balanced role? Well we saw some flashes of that with the 2015 line.

I am sorry KB but I don't agree that it is a talent problem, it is usage problem. As long as Maurice insists on playing a low scoring center big minutes in a checking role with other low scoring players while solid scoring players play token minutes we aren't going to see any change and the less our bottom 6 is going to score, even when you have elite third line scoring options like Roslovic, Armia, Perrault on the team.

Yes man!! The biggest roster problems in year end overall disappointment season's is relating as much to useage, and lack there of in many lesser cases, as pure poor performance by many individual players.
Coaching has been more of detriment than pure roster issues. It is Coaching that actuates line useage and lineups overall, not the GM or drafting selections per se.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Faceoffs, especially defensive zone faceoffs are always important.

they're a puck battle, no more important than any other

 

[GumbyCan2]

Faceoffs, especially defensive zone faceoffs are always important.

Yes, true. As important once the draw is taken, is coverage and positioning and moving the puck up/ out with control. It is all players responsibility to control faceoffs, once draw is taken. Lowry may win many more D-zone draws than any other Jets ( and he should because that is his specialty and Moe puts him out there in those situations more than any other center) but do we as a unit control more of the play once draw is taken with Lowry winning it? Are we turning the play out of our zone and up the ice for attack with those won draws?

 

[GumbyCan2]

they're a puck battle, no more important than any other

Right on

 

[voyageur]

Yes, true. As important once the draw is taken, is coverage and positioning and moving the puck up/ out with control. It is all players responsibility to control faceoffs, once draw is taken. Lowry may win many more D-zone draws than any other Jets ( and he should because that is his specialty and Moe puts him out there in those situations more than any other center) but do we as a unit control more of the play once draw is taken with Lowry winning it? Are we turning the play out of our zone and up the ice for attack with those won draws?

Well Lowry has put up over a 50% CF over 3 of his seasons here. 2 of the last 3. In spite of taking nearly 60% ES d-zone draws, which should weigh into your effectiveness. Last year it was 61.4, nearing 2/3 of the game starting in your own end (which is a Laine factor incidentally). I think if you weighted those 2 stats, Lowry and Copp would have very similar numbers. Copp obviously would have the advantage offensively. Lowry's worst 2 seasons here are the year he started on a checking line with Stafford and Burmistrov for a terrible stretch of , and last year, which included heavy doses of Perreault and Bourque on his wings. So I think you have to be objective. His job is to bring the play into the other end, from his own zone, and by and large he has been good at it. Playins were a sample of his effectiveness.

Winning defensive zone faceoffs is something every team values, because starting with the puck in the d-zone is better than chasing it.

 

[GumbyCan2]

I don't have issue with them giving him that number. The issue I have is that it's a traditional hockey number and you don't give those out to guys that are headed to the AHL. Which is where Thompson's tallent level dictates he be.

Good point. Unless the Thompson signing is in cahoots of a further role, future teaching, coaching, mentoring future picks and young prospects? Thus, his own personal connection to honouring Rypien for his openness about his personal battles in our world. And his knowing Kevin Bieksa personally, who is in charge of the Rypien memorium team, gave him a blessing to wear the number 11. Kind of seems minimalist and not as meaningful if the player getting the "go ahead" to wear such honoured # is merely a PB fill-in or AHL roster filler!
Originally, I thought the Nate Thompson signing marked some kind of security for a possible Lowry or Copp trade in the works? With both these guys on 1 year to FA contracts and uncertainty with Laine's and need for cap space to sign him long term, you never know? Chevy might have been preparing for losing one of the 2 for getting another needed position player addressed.

 

[surixon]

Well Lowry has put up over a 50% CF over 3 of his seasons here. 2 of the last 3. In spite of taking nearly 60% ES d-zone draws, which should weigh into your effectiveness. Last year it was 61.4, nearing 1/3 of the game starting in your own end (which is a Laine factor incidentally). I think if you weighted those 2 stats, Lowry and Copp would have very similar numbers. Copp obviously would have the advantage offensively. Lowry's worst 2 seasons here are the year he started on a checking line with Stafford and Burmistrov for a terrible stretch of , and last year, which included heavy doses of Perreault and Bourque on his wings. So I think you have to be objective. His job is to bring the play into the other end, from his own zone, and by and large he has been good at it. Playins were a sample of his effectiveness.

Winning defensive zone faceoffs is something every team values, because starting with the puck in the d-zone is better than chasing it.

Lowry is very good at what he does but he doesn't produce offensively at all which is his limiting factor.

 

[voyageur]

Lowry is very good at what he does but he doesn't produce offensively at all which is his limiting factor.

With a true top 6 like we have this year, I don't think the pressure is on him to score. It's to not be scored on. I think if you keep the likes of Copp, Roslovic or Harkins on his wing that you have a matchup defensive line. It would be nice to have more offensive depth, and I think that is coming when Vesalainen and Gustafsson make the next step. Maybe you get Vesalainen-Gustafsson-Copp, Harkins-Lowry-Appleton for 2021-22.

I also think Stastny will positively affect the possession stats, being a player who handles the corners of the ice of well, and board battles, as will a defense that is not brand new as it was last year, which should reduce the need for as many defensive zone draws.

 

[GumbyCan2]

I think Toronto has gone backwards and is going to ice an old and slow bottom 6 in large part because they were forced to trade the young fast players that they had there due to being far too top heavy cap wise.

I don't disagree that more talent wouldn't be a problem but imo all you need to do is look at individual scoring rates and ice time distributions on the team over the last few years to spot a pattern. Adam Lowry outside of 17-18 has consistently scored in the bottom 3 in terms of P/60 in terms of forwards on this team but has consistently played low end second line minutes. While he is good defensively playing pretty much a fourth line scoring forward those minutes limits the scoring of the linemates he plays with and that in turn limits the scoring of our bottom 6. When you add say Tanev who also scored at fourth line rates to your third line well it just compounds the scoring issue.

We had other players who scored very well those years that saw some marginalized roles while Maurice types got increased roles:

Dano scored at almost triple the rate that Tanev did in 16-17 (1.55 P/60 which are average third line scoring rates but he did it with fourth line usage) but it was Tanev that got the third line slot the next year and proceeded to produce below average third line scoring rates in 17-18 (1.41 P/60 on a year where Lowry went off and Copp scored well). But the better solution that year would have been to play Armia there as Armia with fourth line usage was producing at elite third line scoring rates (1.7 P/60).

I know Dano isn't everyone's cup of team based on how he looked on the ice but he contributed pretty strong results despite less then favorable usage here. In his three years hear he scored at slightly below average third line scoring rates while being a net neutral relative possesion player while getting fourth line minutes. He is the type of player that with proper usage here would have actually been that talented bottom 6 player that you are looking for. What ended up happening is Maurice played a much more ineffective hockey player in Tanev the bigger minutes because he looked better on the ice (Classic coaching bias and mistake). Tanev despite superior usage scored less, drove possession relatively at a much worse rate.

Roslovic prior to this year also got fourth line minutes despite producing at elite 3rd line scoring rate levels (1.73 P/60).

The simple fact of the matter is that Maurice has had pretty solid scoring talent in his bottom 6's over the years but has continually proceeded to promote his types of player (The high motor muckers) into more prominent bottom 6 roles. Many of those talents (Dano, Armia, Roslovic) were traded for by the org but haven't been optimally utilized by the coach. So I really question why you would think we are just trying to draft our bottom 6. Chevy has taken a pretty diverse approach to it imo.


Really the only player Maurice has consistently trusted to play on his third line that scores at an appropriate level is Copp. As shown we have had a bunch of players who have scored in the realm of average or better third line players with fourth line usage, what do you think these players could do with third line usage in a more balanced role? Well we saw some flashes of that with the 2015 line.

I am sorry KB but I don't agree that it is a talent problem, it is usage problem. As long as Maurice insists on playing a low scoring center big minutes in a checking role with other low scoring players while solid scoring players play token minutes we aren't going to see any change and the less our bottom 6 is going to score, even when you have elite third line scoring options like Roslovic, Armia, Perrault on the team.

Interesting points. Thinking of it, I would like to see Marko Dano on the 4th line, either R or LW. If he shows up in good shape, showing ready to go. Would bevfun to see him reignite some sparks in a Jets uniform again? Not sure where his game has been at for a while? As you point out his scoring % rate #'s are pretty high for a limited use 4th liner.