I don't think I've seen Bogo play less than a number 3 in the entire time he's been a Jet.
Personally, I think people have seen some of the glaring mistakes (the Perry goal comes to mind), and have a magnifying glass watching for Bogo to make a mistake.
The last Wings game is a good example. Bogo played 27:52. Not even counting the goal he scored, I would bet that more people here were lol'ing, and face palming that Bogo made a mistake trying to pass the puck behind the net and hit the side of the net, than giving him credit for the overall game he played. Never mind that he was playing the most minutes on the team. I don't know if it's news to anyone, but nobody, and certainly no defenseman in the game make it through the game without making mistakes. Not Weber, not Lidstrom, not Orr. And when you play close to 28 minutes, you're a little more likely to make a mistake.
As for not putting up points, I have also been seeing that comment around as well. Bogo doesn't put up a tonne of points, but he puts up a good amount of points at even strength, and I don't think he also gets a lot of PP time (comparatively).
At even strength:
2012-2013 - .333 a game (Same as Weber, Beauchemin, OEL, and better than probably a lot of others, I just didn't calculate it for them all.) He would probably place around the 13 to 18 mark overall if he had played all 48. Bogo was 92nd in PP time per game. He was also 17th in even strength time per game.
2011- 2012 - .35 a game (this would put him at around 10th overall I think, higher than a lot of D men that put up more overall points). Bogo was 57th in PP time per game. He was also 67th in even strength time per game.
Someone else may want to calculate the even strength points per game for defenseman to double check. I just did a rough check and didn't calculate them all. Maybe a even strength point per minute stat?
At the risk of going COMPLETELY OT....
James: what are you using to classify bogo as such a bust?
I just ran the numbers for bogo doign Corsi rel, zone start, qoc, and P/60 over the last 4 y ears.
Now i don't know how to accurately adjust corsi/zone starts but the numbers I got aren't terrible.
I didn't use flat corsi as it can be team inflated.
that being said, his corsi rel is usually not great. on the jets he's been lower, but this is because of the strength of matchups he's taken the last two years.
So what I did was sort him on corsi rel, zone starts, qoc, and p/p60. assuming 180 full time dmen in the league (6X30) i then took his numbers to see where he'd end up.
Year | Corsi Rel | Unshelteredness | QOC | P/60 |
13-14 | 126 | 96 | 32 | 90|
12-13| 150 | 7 |34 | 32|
11-12| 143 | 42 |172 | 14|
i then took these numbers and averaged them relative to the 30 teams to see where he stacks up as an 'average" in terms of placement
Year | Corsi Rel | Unshelteredness | QOC | P/60 | Average |
13-14 | 4.2| 3.0 | 1 | 3| 2.8 |
12-13| 5 | .23 |1.1 | 1.06| 1.85|
11-12| 4.7 | 1.4 |5.7 | .4| 3
or to put it entirely in laymens terms
Year | Corsi Rel | Unshelteredness | QOC | P/60 | Average |
13-14 | 5th | 3rd | 1st | 3rd | mid- low 3rd |
12-13| 5th | 1st |high 2| high 2| high 2nd|
11-12| 5th | 2nd |6th | 1st| borderline 3rd
*Unshelterdness is Inverse O Zone starts.
what's it mean?
wel lit means bogo's probably not the "would be #1" we like to say he is. That being said, he seems to solidly be in the 3rd territory. Though his corsi rel usually keeps him low its strongly effected by the strength of matchups he takes.
He's always in the bottom half of Ozone start, and (besides the first year) generally takes tough minutes.
His scoring has shifted as you'd expect with his zone starts/matchups. That being said, he's producing currently at historically low offensive rates per minutes, without a decrease in zone starts nor an increase in tough minutes. Which means this number is either A) likely to pick up and return to historic numbers or B) he's regressing.
Conclusion: i would not call Bogo a bust, but we're overpaying for what he's doing right now. This contract was always about potential, and 18 games isn't a great sample size, but if his scoring numbers return to their normal position he'd jump to be a borderline 2 overall.
