Most Overrated Drafted Prospects

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Keep it to players drafted before 2019. Sample size at high levels is too low on players drafted in 2019 and un-drafted players.

Explain why you think players are overrated, and do so respectfully.

Click to read more...

 

[boredmale]

2 guys who are sort of similar to me but I feel get overrated are Rob Thomas and Morgan Frost. Both guys seem to be decent to good bets to be solid middle 6 centers but the way I see people talk about them you think they will be all star first liners

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

Zadina. Hasn’t done much since being drafted, quite old for a 2018 pick.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

I think Ryan Poehling, Vasili Podkolzin, and Moritiz Seider are some of the more "overrated" prospects right now, at least based on their production. When I say that they're overrated I think that the players are being projected with a little too much enthusiasm and that their body of work thus far doesn't really align with their perceived upside.

• I think in Poehling's case he just seems to get bumped up to a prospect tier or two too high. I think he's a fine prospect, I'm just not sure he belongs in the top 30 or even top 50 of drafted prospects. He has never had the production to suggest he can be a 1/2C and his production lines up quite well with the production of other 2/3Cs. He can definitely prove me wrong, but as of now if he doesn't seem to be the sure bet to be a 2C, let alone a #1C that some people think he is.
• Podkolzin is still someone I'm hesitant to give the "Top Prospect" moniker to. He was underwhelming in league play last year and while I understand the reasons for the production issues I'd have still expected more from someone with top line upside. Given that his KHL team seems to insist on playing him for less than 5 minutes a night we may not really know what his real upside is until he comes to NA. Given the margin of error that comes from projecting based of international tournaments I'll probably be lukewarm on Podkolzin for a while.
• Seider is someone that I think benefits from what I'll dub the "Reach Effect". Very few people would have considered him to be a top 50 NHL prospect before the NHL draft and when he gets selected 6th overall he becomes one? I do think he has some pretty good upside, but as of now it's a little early to begin to call him a future top pairing defenceman. I've seen him ranked over fellow Red Wing Filip Hronek who is currently the better player and has similar upside

All 3 players have some great tools and they all should be NHL players. My biggest issue with them is that at this time I think they are all getting projected to be a level of player that they haven't shown they can be consistently. Historically, if you aren't a scorer before playing in the NHL you won't become one once you make it.

 

[ccman68]

Veleno. Just because he scored a lot of points doesn’t mean he has the offensive tools to become a 1st line player in the NHL.

 

[saska sault]

I think Ryan Poehling, Vasili Podkolzin, and Moritiz Seider are some of the more "overrated" prospects right now, at least based on their production. When I say that they're overrated I think that the players are being projected with a little too much enthusiasm and that their body of work thus far doesn't really align with their perceived upside.

• I think in Poehling's case he just seems to get bumped up to a prospect tier or two too high. I think he's a fine prospect, I'm just not sure he belongs in the top 30 or even top 50 of drafted prospects. He has never had the production to suggest he can be a 1/2C and his production lines up quite well with the production of other 2/3Cs. He can definitely prove me wrong, but as of now if he doesn't seem to be the sure bet to be a 2C, let alone a #1C that some people think he is.
• Podkolzin is still someone I'm hesitant to give the "Top Prospect" moniker to. He was underwhelming in league play last year and while I understand the reasons for the production issues I'd have still expected more from someone with top line upside. Given that his KHL team seems to insist on playing him for less than 5 minutes a night we may not really know what his real upside is until he comes to NA. Given the margin of error that comes from projecting based of international tournaments I'll probably be lukewarm on Podkolzin for a while.
• Seider is someone that I think benefits from what I'll dub the "Reach Effect". Very few people would have considered him to be a top 50 NHL prospect before the NHL draft and when he gets selected 6th overall he becomes one? I do think he has some pretty good upside, but as of now it's a little early to begin to call him a future top pairing defenceman. I've seen him ranked over fellow Red Wing Filip Hronek who is currently the better player and has similar upside

All 3 players have some great tools and they all should be NHL players. My biggest issue with them is that at this time I think they are all getting projected to be a level of player that they haven't shown they can be consistently. Historically, if you aren't a scorer before playing in the NHL you won't become one once you make it.

Seider was predicted to be a top 15 to 20 pick. A reach yes, but nothing we don't see almost every year within the top 10. Zadina has come down to earth for sure, he's still young. I have faith in the kid, he works relentlessly and just needs his confidence back.

As for Veleno, he was picked 30th? If he turns into a decent NHLer that's a solid pick. Wings fans are just happy to have another good prospect regardless if he ends up top 6 or 3rd liner.

 

[Just Linda]

Mittelstatd. The hype he got was so unrealistic, he was listed as a top 3 prospect in many lists. I watched a lot of him and I just never saw it and I still don't. I read lots that boasted him as a top line centre potentially but I was always like nah 2nd line ceiling.

Wahlstrom. I don't see him having the ability to translate his game to the next level. I know he did better in the AHL but his college showings have me very hesitant on him.

 

[Just Linda]

I think Ryan Poehling, Vasili Podkolzin, and Moritiz Seider are some of the more "overrated" prospects right now, at least based on their production. When I say that they're overrated I think that the players are being projected with a little too much enthusiasm and that their body of work thus far doesn't really align with their perceived upside.

• I think in Poehling's case he just seems to get bumped up to a prospect tier or two too high. I think he's a fine prospect, I'm just not sure he belongs in the top 30 or even top 50 of drafted prospects. He has never had the production to suggest he can be a 1/2C and his production lines up quite well with the production of other 2/3Cs. He can definitely prove me wrong, but as of now if he doesn't seem to be the sure bet to be a 2C, let alone a #1C that some people think he is.
• Podkolzin is still someone I'm hesitant to give the "Top Prospect" moniker to. He was underwhelming in league play last year and while I understand the reasons for the production issues I'd have still expected more from someone with top line upside. Given that his KHL team seems to insist on playing him for less than 5 minutes a night we may not really know what his real upside is until he comes to NA. Given the margin of error that comes from projecting based of international tournaments I'll probably be lukewarm on Podkolzin for a while.
• Seider is someone that I think benefits from what I'll dub the "Reach Effect". Very few people would have considered him to be a top 50 NHL prospect before the NHL draft and when he gets selected 6th overall he becomes one? I do think he has some pretty good upside, but as of now it's a little early to begin to call him a future top pairing defenceman. I've seen him ranked over fellow Red Wing Filip Hronek who is currently the better player and has similar upside

All 3 players have some great tools and they all should be NHL players. My biggest issue with them is that at this time I think they are all getting projected to be a level of player that they haven't shown they can be consistently. Historically, if you aren't a scorer before playing in the NHL you won't become one once you make it.

Poehling isn't projected as a 1c though, he never was. He always projected to be a middle 6 centre.

 

[Realgud]

Veleno. Just because he scored a lot of points doesn’t mean he has the offensive tools to become a 1st line player in the NHL.

What I saw yesterday from Veleno and Svechnikov makes me believe they can become top 6 players, but yeah, it was against the Marlies so I don't know, but I loved how good they were at working the cycle down low and create dangerous scoring chances. We definitely need to see more but I think he has the tools.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Jesse Puljujärvi for the Finns and Nolan Patrick for Canadians.
Puljujärvi isn't that good what his MVP performances in 2016 U20 WJC's actually meant.

Nolan Patrick because his injury history.
It's difficult to see Patrick playing even 5 to 10 seasons in NHL if he can't stay healthy.
Also that migraine disorder diagnose is worrisome and it's not good for Patrick in longer term

 

[tealhockey]

Mittelstatd. The hype he got was so unrealistic, he was listed as a top 3 prospect in many lists. I watched a lot of him and I just never saw it and I still don't. I read lots that boasted him as a top line centre potentially but I was always like nah 2nd line ceiling.

Wahlstrom. I don't see him having the ability to translate his game to the next level. I know he did better in the AHL but his college showings have me very hesitant on him.

I agree to an extent on both. I think Casey has a lot of talent but playing center in the NHL at such a young age is so tough. He might have more upside on the wing, but maybe in a few years if he sticks with it he will be a big time center. Wahlstrom just leaves me wanting so often, I don't have any question about his ability to do well in the NHL I just don't know if he actually will. He's a headscratcher, probably one of the most gifted prospects I've followed who has yet to realize his massive potential

 

[Newfoundland]

Turcotte

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Seider was predicted to be a top 15 to 20 pick. A reach yes, but nothing we don't see almost every year within the top 10. Zadina has come down to earth for sure, he's still young. I have faith in the kid, he works relentlessly and just needs his confidence back.

As for Veleno, he was picked 30th? If he turns into a decent NHLer that's a solid pick. Wings fans are just happy to have another good prospect regardless if he ends up top 6 or 3rd liner.

I agree, he wasn't an egregious reach, but he was a reach nonetheless. He has impressed me so far in training camp and at the TC tourney so I'm hopefully that it's a sign of things to come. All that being said, I still don't think he's shown that he is a definitive top 50 prospect. I'm not sure why Veleno and Zadina are brought up. Given the years they just had I feel as though they're pretty well ranked relative to their peers.

Poehling isn't projected as a 1c though, he never was. He always projected to be a middle 6 centre.

While most professionals, for example Pronman, rank him accordingly a portion of HF thinks he has 1C upside. Have you seen his thread recently? There are quite a few people that believe he has 1C upside and his placement in the HF top prospects ranking shows a lot of people feel he has that 1/2C upside. It may just be that the people saying he has 1C upside stick out more in my mind and those saying he has 2/3C are more subdued and aren't as memorable.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Your favorite team's prospects that were drafted outside the top 5 picks.

 

[ijuka]

Zadina comes to mind.

Just never quite saw it with him.

 

[Just Linda]

I agree, he wasn't an egregious reach, but he was a reach nonetheless. He has impressed me so far in training camp and at the TC tourney so I'm hopefully that it's a sign of things to come. All that being said, I still don't think he's shown that he is a definitive top 50 prospect. I'm not sure why Veleno and Zadina are brought up. Given the years they just had I feel as though they're pretty well ranked relative to their peers.



While most professionals, for example Pronman, rank him accordingly a portion of HF thinks he has 1C upside. Have you seen his thread recently? There are quite a few people that believe he has 1C upside and his placement in the HF top prospects ranking shows a lot of people feel he has that 1/2C upside. It may just be that the people saying he has 1C upside stick out more in my mind and those saying he has 2/3C are more subdued and aren't as memorable.

One or two ill informed folk doesn't make him overrated though. That just makes one or two people look silly.

 

[CupInSIX]

Poehling just became severely underrated for some reason for a year or so.

 

[mm11]

Vitali Kravtsov, just from a hype perspective in my humble opinion. He has some skills to translate to the NHL ofcourse but may take longer than expected by some

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Five players come to mind.

Quinn Hughes: A complete rover of a defensemen. He’ll be one of the best skaters, stickhandlers and playmakers in the NHL, but he wouldn’t know where the defensive zone is if you put up a sign for it. I also don’t like his hockey IQ at either end of the ice. He’ll put up a lot of points, but will give plenty back, and be a low end NHL’er.

Hayton: Another player whose hockey IQ I don’t like. It’s not that bad, but it’s a lot worse than the reputation it gets, in my opinion. He’s above-average across the board, but I don’t see the talent in any part of the game to be more than a 2C.

Samorukov: Classic case of an older CHL’er dominating in his last year in the league. I’ve always thought he’d play in the NHL, but I don’t buy that he has high upside. I don’t like his puck skill or vision.

Poehling: Another who will play in the NHL as an average player, but low-end upside. Small sample sizes don’t prove high upside over mediocre play in high sample sizes. I even think he’s getting the benefit of the doubt for his NCAA play in a way that others don’t get.

Zadina: Everyone overrated this guy to some extent. He’ll be a top six guy, maybe a top line guy, but I think he lacks the high-high end upside. Mediocre skating, size isn’t the advantage most thought it might be, not a line driver.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Jack Hughes was drafted first overall and can’t even play against men.

 

[Michoulicious]

I think Ryan Poehling, Vasili Podkolzin, and Moritiz Seider are some of the more "overrated" prospects right now, at least based on their production. When I say that they're overrated I think that the players are being projected with a little too much enthusiasm and that their body of work thus far doesn't really align with their perceived upside.

• I think in Poehling's case he just seems to get bumped up to a prospect tier or two too high. I think he's a fine prospect, I'm just not sure he belongs in the top 30 or even top 50 of drafted prospects. He has never had the production to suggest he can be a 1/2C and his production lines up quite well with the production of other 2/3Cs. He can definitely prove me wrong, but as of now if he doesn't seem to be the sure bet to be a 2C, let alone a #1C that some people think he is.
• Podkolzin is still someone I'm hesitant to give the "Top Prospect" moniker to. He was underwhelming in league play last year and while I understand the reasons for the production issues I'd have still expected more from someone with top line upside. Given that his KHL team seems to insist on playing him for less than 5 minutes a night we may not really know what his real upside is until he comes to NA. Given the margin of error that comes from projecting based of international tournaments I'll probably be lukewarm on Podkolzin for a while.
• Seider is someone that I think benefits from what I'll dub the "Reach Effect". Very few people would have considered him to be a top 50 NHL prospect before the NHL draft and when he gets selected 6th overall he becomes one? I do think he has some pretty good upside, but as of now it's a little early to begin to call him a future top pairing defenceman. I've seen him ranked over fellow Red Wing Filip Hronek who is currently the better player and has similar upside

All 3 players have some great tools and they all should be NHL players. My biggest issue with them is that at this time I think they are all getting projected to be a level of player that they haven't shown they can be consistently. Historically, if you aren't a scorer before playing in the NHL you won't become one once you make it.

I don't think I've ever read anybody projecting Poeling to be a #1C. Most people envision a middle-6 C with size and good skating that can complement more talented players.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Five players come to mind.

Quinn Hughes: A complete rover of a defensemen. He’ll be one of the best skaters, stickhandlers and playmakers in the NHL, but he wouldn’t know where the defensive zone is if you put up a sign for it. I also don’t like his hockey IQ at either end of the ice. He’ll put up a lot of points, but will give plenty back, and be a low end NHL’er.

Hayton: Another player whose hockey IQ I don’t like. It’s not that bad, but it’s a lot worse than the reputation it gets, in my opinion. He’s above-average across the board, but I don’t see the talent in any part of the game to be more than a 2C.

Samorukov: Classic case of an older CHL’er dominating in his last year in the league. I’ve always thought he’d play in the NHL, but I don’t buy that he has high upside. I don’t like his puck skill or vision.

Poehling: Another who will play in the NHL as an average player, but low-end upside. Small sample sizes don’t prove high upside over mediocre play in high sample sizes. I even think he’s getting the benefit of the doubt for his NCAA play in a way that others don’t get.

Zadina: Everyone overrated this guy to some extent. He’ll be a top six guy, maybe a top line guy, but I think he lacks the high-high end upside. Mediocre skating, size isn’t the advantage most thought it might be, not a line driver.

This a good list.

Hughes' decision making is not great. He forces so many plays and holds onto the puck for far too long. Probably still ends up putting up somewhere between 40-60P a year because of his skill and skating, but I don't think he'll ever be considered a #1 D.

Thought Zadina has been overrated for awhile. His reputation around here as the slam-dunk no brainer 3rd OVR pick behind Dahlin and Svechnikov was laughable, and based largely on a great WJC and a lack of understanding around here what it means to be a late birthday.

 

[firstemperor]

I will based this on guys I've actually watched since their draft year and keep it strictly to the OHL for now

Merkley (maybe less so the closer we got to the draft). Just more style then substance....he doesn't really play engaged hockey 5 on 5 and I think that's a massive problem at the next level (he's not nearly good enough to get away with it either)

Bouchard- I'm not sold on his 4 way mobility and I really think he's just a PP specialist with a good shot. I also don't think he really got better last year (and that's keeping in mind the shift in defensive responsibility) and actually played worst.

Nick Suzuki- this is a odd one, just never been a fan of his. This is one of the odd cases I'll go against the analytics which make strong cases for him for NHL success. To keep things short, he reminds me of Alex Nylander except with worst skating

 

[theslatcher]

Quinn Hughes, & Igor Shestyorkin.

Quinn I've seen people say will be the Canucks' best dman this season(and even out of the gate this season), among ranking as high as #3 in drafted prospects. I just don't see it.

Shestyorkin granted I only watched in this past KHL playoffs, didn't impress me at all. The moment Ska switched back to him as their starter in the playoffs was the moment I knew Ska would lose.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Jack Hughes was drafted first overall and can’t even play against men.

that persecution complex tho