Speculation: Most disappointing 2020 draft result?

[Poxsonus]

Detroit also won the Cup with Chris Osgood. Nothing says elite like Chris Osgood does it?

Was he Os-Good or Os-Great, though?

 

[Six Assets]

Most disappointed with from options I’d be fine with:
3. Byfield (rather Stutzle, extremely happy with Byfield)
5. Rossi

Most disappointed from options I don’t see as realistic:
3. Anyone aside from Byfield or Stutzle
5.Quinn

Why do you have stutzle over byfield now?

 

[bert]

Scheifele wasn't a late-birthday.

Main concern with Quinn is that he's only really played like a first round talent for 3-4 months. If he was born a week earlier he wouldn't have been taken in the first two rounds in his draft year.

He showed first round talent as a 17 year old, he scored an incredible goal against London where he walked Boqvist, the flashes were certainly there. He got buried on a stacked team and was a rookie that season. The 67's traded for two overage wingers and he played predominantly on the 4th line. From a physical development stand point he is a late bloomer. He started out two seasons ago as a 16 year old at 5'8 won rookies of the year of the CCHL, he finished this past season at just under 6'1.

Our best chance to win a Stanley Cup, the lockout happened.
Our 2nd best chance to win the Stanley Cup, our starting goalie got injured in the Olympics, we never traded for another starter, and went into the playoffs with our rookie backup that obviously wasn't ready to be the man.

Correct also had a very very good team in 04 they had the best goal differential in the NHL and finished 4 points out of first. Then proceeded to outshoot the leafs all 7 games of the series but Lalime was Lalime and Jaques was Jaques not dressing Spezza when he was the 4th leading scorer on the team while they struggled to score. Those two seasons along with the 03 year where they lost in game 7 of the ECF to the devils were the prime 4 years for this franchise. Its funny the team in 07 was less talented than all those teams but everything came together but they just werent good enough to win a cup. Had it come together those other seasons they likely would have won.

 

[aragorn]

You seem to be confusing elite goalies with “hot” goalies. Most cups are won by goalies who get hot at the right time while the elite goalies like Lundqvist and Price watch from their couch.

Who can predict when & which goalie is going to get hot though? Having an elite goalie gives you a better shot every yr, it's up to the GM to put good players in front of him.

There's a list as long as my arm of teams that won it all without elite goaltending. Not sure what you're looking for here. Elite goaltending is of course great to have, but it is in no way a requirement for winning. It's also the most volatile position to draft, the chances of getting elite goaltending out of a 1st round pick is far less than getting an elite skater out of that same pick. We drafted Chouinard 15th OA,

Drafting Askarov at 5th is doubly problematic because he's not actually ranked that high, so we'd be reaching to fill a perceived need when we actually have needs everywhere and players available ranked where we are drafting that also fill needs and are more likely to realize their potential.

Drafting Askarov is a high risk move that while it had great upside, we'd be passing up on much lower risk options that also have great upside.

That's the consensus opinion here but I don't see it as problematic to draft a goalie at 5th OA especially when the players from 4th to 12th are considered all part of the same tier. It's people here who want to break it down further & many including myself have argued for this guy or that guy. I will admit this team has sucked at drafting good goalies over the yrs. Maybe they get lucky with one in their system now but who knows?

Askarov is a risk, but so are all of those guys ranked in that tier for one reason or another. It's because the majority here want those finesse kinds of players & I don't, I want a solid player who can be counted on to make this team a contender. It's why I would take Askarov, Sanderson or Lundell over those other guys. I've been waiting for this team to win a cup for 25 yrs, Tampa came in at the same time & could win again. We keep struggling with shitty goaltending yr after yr.

Not because of goaltending, at least not in any years Karlsson was with the team. Nobody is suggesting we should be fine with sub par goaltending, just that 5th OA is the wrong asset to use to get a quality goalie.

And then someone suggested at some point trading a 1st to bring in a quality goalie later on. It's not the wrong asset if that goalie wins a cup. Coming out of this draft with Byfield & Askarov would be a coup IMO but the majority want those little finesse players just like they wanted Filatov (3rd OA) so badly & were so happy they signed DaCosta & some wanted Corey Locke & the list goes on & on. And of course I wanted bigger players who never worked out either. It's all a risk or a gamble.

People liked Lalime & look what happened to him in the playoffs. People like Anderson (seems like a great guy) but we never won with him either during the EK yrs. Did we waste EK because of crappy goaltending or the other way around? Again I doubt they take Askarov at 5th OA, but I would like to see them make a deal to acquire him.

I'm not as cynical as some of the others and think that drafting in the right situation in the 1st is okay and Askarov in the teens is solid. At #5 I want a player that I can guarantee is going to be better than any of the prospects we have currently within the next 2-3 years.

I'm not convinced that Askarov is so certain that we can say for sure he is going to be better than Hogberg, Daccord, Sogaard, Gustavsson five years from now. You do - that's fine. I personally think that there have been a lot of really highly touted goalies that have taken a long time to become quality NHL starters on a consistent basis and if I have a pick at #5 then I want someone who is contributing on a shorter time frame with a higher guarantee. At 25 years old I bet he is a high quality starter in the NHL but that is in 7 years. Price was farther along technically than Askarov is right now but Askarov is more athletic. I'm calling my shot that Askarov has a harder transition to the NHL than Price did because Askarov has so much excess movement and relies so much on athleticism.

As an aside, Hogberg's stats in the SHL (albeit at an older age) were absolutely unreal and yet the transition has still taken awhile. Though I believe in him probably more than most on here.

Good points, Hasek was an athletic goalie too with an unusual playing style, but still got the job done, won a cup & is in the HOF. It could take a while nobody knows with younger players how long it will take to transition to the NHL, I certainly don't expect it to happen over night. And who knows what kind of team PD puts together, another unknown.

Just because players don't make the NHL sooner than people think they should is not always because of the player, sometimes it's because of who is playing in front of them & who the GM or coach want to see first. For a lot of guys they need a break, an injury or someone who believes in them. Hogberg was a complete unknown with very little fan fare or late bloomer. I've always liked him though, I hope he does well.

 

[Micklebot]

And then someone suggested at some point trading a 1st to bring in a quality goalie later on. It's not the wrong asset if that goalie wins a cup. Coming out of this draft with Byfield & Askarov would be a coup IMO but the majority want those little finesse players just like they wanted Filatov (3rd OA) so badly & were so happy they signed DaCosta & some wanted Corey Locke & the list goes on & on. And of course I wanted bigger players who never worked out either. It's all a risk or a gamble.

People liked Lalime & look what happened to him in the playoffs. People like Anderson (seems like a great guy) but we never won with him either during the EK yrs. Did we waste EK because of crappy goaltending or the other way around? Again I doubt they take Askarov at 5th OA, but I would like to see them make a deal to acquire him.

There is huge difference between trading a late first for a goalie and drafting one with 5th OA, but the odds of getting a high end goalie with that late first are probably better than by drafting them at 5th because the goalie you trade for is further along in their development. Filatov went 6th btw, DaCosta was a free agent and I have no idea who the heck wanted Locke... The point though is that goalies bust or under perform relative to draft position at a higher rate than skaters do, they take the longest of any position to develop which increase the risk substantially, and because of the limited number of openings for goalies, the skill gap between great goalies and good goalies isn't as wide as with skaters.

As for whether we wasted ek because of crappy goaltending or the other way around, I think the answer is pretty clearly neither, the issue was always all the other stuff during the EK years; we lacked depth of skaters, when EK was of the ice, the D was among the worst in the league and we didn't have a true number 1 center nor did we really have much in the way of scoring wingers.

Hey, if we can move up from 28 to grab Askarov, I think that's a reasonable option. If we move back from 5th say 7th and 18th, and grab Askarov at 18th while still getting a guy we like at 7th, I'd be good with that too though depending on who is still there at 18 I might prefer someone else over Askarov and there's a reasonable chance he won't even be available. I just don't buy into drafting goalies in the top 10; the return on investment is often underwhelming. Drafting him at 5 though, that's a complete non starter for me. Setting aside the guys I know you don't like, I'd much rather Sanderson over Askarov. I'd also grab Quinn over him (but my preference would not be Quinn that high).

 

[aragorn]

There is huge difference between trading a late first for a goalie and drafting one with 5th OA, but the odds of getting a high end goalie with that late first are probably better than by drafting them at 5th because the goalie you trade for is further along in their development. Filatov went 6th btw, DaCosta was a free agent and I have no idea who the heck wanted Locke... The point though is that goalies bust or under perform relative to draft position at a higher rate than skaters do, they take the longest of any position to develop which increase the risk substantially, and because of the limited number of openings for goalies, the skill gap between great goalies and good goalies isn't as wide as with skaters.

As for whether we wasted ek because of crappy goaltending or the other way around, I think the answer is pretty clearly neither, the issue was always all the other stuff during the EK years; we lacked depth of skaters, when EK was of the ice, the D was among the worst in the league and we didn't have a true number 1 center nor did we really have much in the way of scoring wingers.

Hey, if we can move up from 28 to grab Askarov, I think that's a reasonable option. If we move back from 5th say 7th and 18th, and grab Askarov at 18th while still getting a guy we like at 7th, I'd be good with that too though depending on who is still there at 18 I might prefer someone else over Askarov and there's a reasonable chance he won't even be available. I just don't buy into drafting goalies in the top 10; the return on investment is often underwhelming. Drafting him at 5 though, that's a complete non starter for me. Setting aside the guys I know you don't like, I'd much rather Sanderson over Askarov. I'd also grab Quinn over him (but my preference would not be Quinn that high).

Okay. I'm of the opinion that Ottawa has had crappy, mediocre or average goaltending for 25 yrs with the exception of the time we had Hasek & that unfortunately didn't go so well. Any other yr I might agree with you, not this yr. Last yr I would have agreed with you & not picked Knight so high. I respect your opinion, although I still don't agree with you on Askarov. We'll see, time will tell.

 

[R2010]

Okay. I'm of the opinion that Ottawa has had crappy, mediocre or average goaltending for 25 yrs with the exception of the time we had Hasek & that unfortunately didn't go so well. Any other yr I might agree with you, not this yr. Last yr I would have agreed with you & not picked Knight so high. I respect your opinion, although I still don't agree with you on Askarov. We'll see, time will tell.

Anderson was well above mediocre. He is 4th all time in playoff save%. #2 among active goaltenders. If your goalie is top 20 in playoff save % you're thrilled. Top 5 is amazing.

NHL Goalies ‑ All-Time Playoff Save Percentage Leaders

 

[R2010]

Anderson was well above mediocre. He is 4th all time in playoff save%. #2 among active goaltenders. If your goalie is top 20 in playoff save % you're thrilled. Top 5 is amazing.

NHL Goalies ‑ All-Time Playoff Save Percentage Leaders

As an aside, there are four former Senators goalies in the top 15... Anderson, Lalime, Bishop, Lehner

 

[aragorn]

Anderson was well above mediocre. He is 4th all time in playoff save%. #2 among active goaltenders. If your goalie is top 20 in playoff save % you're thrilled. Top 5 is amazing.

NHL Goalies ‑ All-Time Playoff Save Percentage Leaders

Never won a cup & only made it to a Conference final once I think.

 

[Masked]

Never won a cup & only made it to a Conference final once I think.

How does that compare to Carey Price?

 

[thinkwild]

Okay. I'm of the opinion that Ottawa has had crappy, mediocre or average goaltending for 25 yrs with the exception of the time we had Hasek & that unfortunately didn't go so well. Any other yr I might agree with you, not this yr. Last yr I would have agreed with you & not picked Knight so high. I respect your opinion, although I still don't agree with you on Askarov. We'll see, time will tell.

I remember back in the day of Brodeur, Roy, Cujo even, there was an expression that we shouldnt call it hockey - we should call it goalie. Maybe especially in the times of stacked teams and clutch and grab they stood out more. The Flyers were notorious for many years for having big teams but not spending for a top goalie. I definitely get your line of thinking and if was sure that Askarov would become that elite level, i'd take him at 5 too. Its possible, but i'd be too worried to place my bet that way.

 

[BondraTime]

Why do you have stutzle over byfield now?

I.Q

I’m indifferent, I honestly am fine with either guy. Stutzle’s motor and I.Q are big for me. Byfield has the potential to be a top 10 C in the league. Can’t go wrong with either.

 

[aragorn]

How does that compare to Carey Price?

Won a gold medal for Canada & was the best Canadian goalie in the league. Not his fault Montreal wasted his time there with a small soft team.

 

[Masked]

Won a gold medal for Canada & was the best Canadian goalie in the league. Not his fault Montreal wasted his time there with a small soft team.

So never won a Cup and made it to the conference final once? Sounds mediocre.

 

[aragorn]

So never won a Cup and made it to the conference final once? Sounds mediocre.

Add never won a Jennings Trophy or a Vezina.