Confirmed with Link: Montreal Canadien Offer Sheet Sebastian Aho (5 Years @ $8.45M) III

[Doublechin]

Only way Canes don't match is if Aho's agent basically tells the Canes that Aho wants to go to MTL and there's no changing that and if they match he will gladly play out the first year, collect the 21-22M and sit out the next year and request a trade to MTL and nowhere else

I feel like that's the only way we could get him, that or we create a GoFundMe for Dundon and give him an extra 10M to just let this go lol

 

[cphabs]

What are the chances Bergevin goes after another RFA if the Canes match?

I hope he does! Target the welfare teams surviving off OUR fan base and the profits they garnish. Screw this profit sharing BS! Hell, Seattle has already professed that the will be an inclusive multicultural organization above anything else! That means above profits or fielding a winning team! Unbelievable, and our profits will go directly to them.

 

[dinodebino]

'Canes will sign. It just screws up their salary structure for years to come. Which is fine. Welfare franchise.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Something doesn’t add up here. If the offer will be so easily matched, as most everyone in the media is saying, why does MB even bother? I’d assume he’d be privy to the same info as those in the media.

Did MB do this for the optics, for his players and fans?

Or, does MB know something the media does not? Specifically, I wonder if the player agent passed along some pertinent information such as - the contract talks are slowing because the Canes are being stingy with bonus money. You gotta wonder if the agent gave a hint as to what might make the Canes balk at matching. Otherwise, why would MB bother with what appears to be an easily matched offer??

 

[Spring in Fialta]

What are the chances Bergevin goes after another RFA if the Canes match?

He doesn’t have many options. He can’t possibly going into this year with a worse team, can he? His star player came out twice talking about wanting to play for now and not desiring to wait any longer. He’s already doing “ our fans can see we’re trying ‘’ bit but I don’t know...the facts are the facts and this team has missed 3 out of 4 years. After the year we had last year, how deflating would it be to not do a thing? That’s a seriously hard sell to the fanbase.

 

[Jack Bauer]

For all we know, Waddell convinced Dundon that he could talk Marleau into playing for them and now Dundon is pissed.

Or he's a normal rich guy who understands he's running a sports team and over certain years will be forced to eat some short term money in order to accomplish longer term goals.

 

[Runner77]

Yeah, wanting to match is one thing. Being able to on the other hand...

Anyhow, I am sure they will match but the only sweating going on is from Dundon as matching basically means no gate revenue for about a year assuming their numbers remain the status quo.

Add to this, they are now going to have to rethink their thinking with all the young players they got who are going to be becoming RFAs. Keep your players happy, this probably wouldn’t have happened.

If this fails and it likely will, they can always try again with Svechnikov when he’ll be due for a long term deal. Aho was only a test run.

 

[Simarino]

Lol. What do you want his agent to say?? He coulda got more?? Right....
If they wanted Aho that bad , you Offer more
This will be matched

If they didnt think it was a good offer and that it had a chance to get unmatch netiher Aho's agent and Bergevin are making this offer sheet..Are they delusional, maybe, but they sure have a lot more infos then you to judge the situation

 

[CauZuki]

How much ever you want. The owner paid 4.5 million for a ****ing 1st rounder.

People seriously think 21m will be a problem? Aho will bring them revenue as well, he needs Aho both on and off the ice.

People are blinded by the PR move, they know we havn't had a young ppg player in decades and getting one this way sounds too good to be true...

I think there is an extra effect happenning because we have so many talented prospects in the pipeline that havn't had time to reach their potential yet and this just gives so many fans a taste for a player that has produced 80+ points.

I mean I completely understand why it's easy to be convinced the offer sheet is within the realm of reality or that it's plausible Carolina doesn't match. I really just don't see it and I think it cheapens the Montreal brand , just build it well and they will come...

 

[hockeyfan2k18]

Pretty much lol.

on the surface, $8.454m is nothing. Even I thought "that's it?" when I saw the offer on the TV at work. It's when the breakdown came out that it really went, "ohhhhh."

Like I said, Dundon can afford the $21m... but does he want to take that on in a calendar year and operate at a loss this season and is willing to sacrifice the on-ice product? I doubt it, but who knows. Whatever he does sends a big message to players not just in the organization, but in the entire league.

We are not talking about a mid level player. We're talking about a burgeoning superstar. A smart owner, businessman is going to look at the ROI before making any decision. Is he better off paying Aho what he is worth (slightly less) and make money for 5 years building off of the success of the last layoff run? Get more people in the building, more media coverage, sell more jerseys, etc. Is all of that going to pay him back his $20M payment......or is he going to say crew it, not match...miss the playoffs, lose fans, etc but at least have his $20M?

If it's me I match. I may not be happy about it, but I match and if he needs to be traded down the road....sure. He has a decent contract. Also, winning cures all. Canes are building a hell of a team. You can easily make that money back.

If a new owner that was vetted, 1 year into ownership is counting pennies and can't afford superstar talent, it is a terrible look for the league who bends over backwards to make sure small market teams can compete.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Something doesn’t add up here. If the offer will be so easily matched, as most everyone in the media is saying, why does MB even bother? I’d assume he’d be privy to the same info as those in the media.

Did MB do this for the optics, for his players and fans?

Or, does MB know something the media does not? Specifically, I wonder if the player agent passed along some pertinent information such as - the contract talks are slowing because the Canes are being stingy with bonus money. You gotta wonder if the agent gave a hint as to what might make the Canes balk at matching. Otherwise, why would MB bother with what appears to be an easily matched offer??

He had no other logical options is the simple answer. So might as well throw money at the unattainable. This is where Edmonton turned when nobody would go there as well. Lucky for them Buffalo matched on Vanek.

 

[sandviper]

I don't believe you understand the approach. What's the difference in $21M vs $25M in the first 12 months? The problem is not cap space, it's money to be paid in a 12 months. Going up to $10.5M puts us at risk with Domi's contract and does the extra $4M tips the scales? Doubt it.

They already had trade discussions before the offer sheet but could not come to agreement. I think Bergevin decided to sign the offer sheet and they will get back to the table to see if they can negotiate a side trade for them not to match.

The probability of them not matching does not change by going up to $10.5M because cap space is not their problem and the $21M is enough to do financial damage. No need to bump that up to $25M ish.

This approach is smart and you have your Bergevin hate goggles on IMO

Everything you said is true but to compound this, there may be a work stoppage before or around 21-22 and Aho would STILL need to be paid over $5m in bonuses. For a businessman like Dundon, having to pay an asset who may not be working (plus no income) would be a hard pill to swallow.

In terms of numbers, I am also fine with it. I don't praise Bergevin like ever, but this was a smart amount a few ways.:

A) He doesn't throw the rest of the league out of whack in salaries for RFAs. Offer could be better maybe, but this isn't a lowball offer or Aho would have ignored it and waited for another.

B) If we offered Aho $10.5m and he ends up with us and scores 80pts but Domi scores 81pts, does that mean we pay Domi $11m? The just under $8.5m offer is perfect IMO.

 

[le_sean]

You keep trying to convince yourself he won’t match. Holy Jesus I can’t remember the last time the fanbase was so collectively in denial despite the evidence staring right at us. We got credible reports of Hurricanes executives cheering, official twitter accounts trolling us and STILL a bunch of our fans are sitting there going “ nuh-uh! “

I know they’ll match. I’m saying the way their owner operates is pathetic.

 

[ForeverHabs97]

How much ever you want. The owner paid 4.5 million for a ****ing 1st rounder.

People seriously think 21m will be a problem? Aho will bring them revenue as well, he needs Aho both on and off the ice.

Right, but that doesn't mean he will automatically fork up 4 times more of that in the very near future. Sure he might have the money, but will he do it. Especially if this puts the team at a heavy deficit right of the bat. For all we know this much money invested could kill any potential profit. The losses may make Dundon not want to take on this kind of level of a money sink. Not only after Aho, but theres a lot more numbers in the team budget we haven't accounted for.

Maybe he just doesn't see this as a worthy investment from his pockets. It's quite probable when you look at Dundon's history and how he is with the Canes in salary and cheap budget management.

He probably has the cash let's not kid ourselves. But I do wonder how someone can just lose 250M$ this spring, be involved in a lawsuit and all of these other things and expect to be a guaranteed wealthy investor. I get that he's worth alot, how do we know he's not in debt over his head. We don't but it's pretty unlikely. Big Corporations go bankrupt all the time, look at Gibson or even Sears/Zellers that left Canada because they probably couldn't afford it or wasn't worth the investment.

This is exactly what this is about. Some people suggest Marleau's buyout decision wasn't that easy to make, sure. But theres something about the 21M$ bonus that could change his decision. Canes season gate numbers (whatever that is, I'm assuming profit/revenue) was 19-21M$ after Marleau's buyout. What happens when this makes it automatically a number below 0 before the season even starts.

 

[davey999]

Something doesn’t add up here. If the offer will be so easily matched, as most everyone in the media is saying, why does MB even bother? I’d assume he’d be privy to the same info as those in the media.

Did MB do this for the optics, for his players and fans?

Or, does MB know something the media does not? Specifically, I wonder if the player agent passed along some pertinent information such as - the contract talks are slowing because the Canes are being stingy with bonus money. You gotta wonder if the agent gave a hint as to what might make the Canes balk at matching. Otherwise, why would MB bother with what appears to be an easily matched offer??

It's all about optics and protecting the brand. Winning is not a priority.

 

[CauZuki]

'Canes will sign. It just screws up their salary structure for years to come. Which is fine. Welfare franchise.

We need to focus on our own issues , not bait our fans into dreaming about Aho...

 

[Deebs]

Everything you said is true but to compound this, there may be a work stoppage before or around 21-22 and Aho would STILL need to be paid over $5m in bonuses. For a businessman like Dundon, having to pay an asset who may not be working (plus no income) would be a hard pill to swallow.

In terms of numbers, I am also fine with it. I don't praise Bergevin like ever, but this was a smart amount a few ways.:

A) He doesn't throw the rest of the league out of whack in salaries for RFAs. Offer could be better maybe, but this isn't a lowball offer or Aho would have ignored it and waited for another.

B) If we offered Aho $10.5m and he ends up with us and scores 80pts but Domi scores 81pts, does that mean we pay Domi $11m? The just under $8.5m offer is perfect IMO.

Well said and I agree completely

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

Is not bullying or personal, it's just business and competition.

I get that.. if MB somehow to pull it off, I'd be ecstatic. but I'm talking about the perspective of the Canes owner. This offer is basically an owner trying to take advantage of another owner with money. I get business is business.. but my point is value wise (the 3 picks), it's insulting even if it's not MB that decided that.

Maybe when Waddell said he was surprised it wasn't more, maybe he meant with the extra 1st pick, they would have considered it more. Now the picks are irrelevant for them, they will concentrate purely on that 21M$, which for a billionaire is pretty easy to manage I guess.

 

[donghabs98]

More I thought about it the more I realized the Canes prematurely reacted on Twitter and questions. Rather than to immediately say they were gonna match cause it was cute at face value, they should've looked at how the contract was structured and how it wouldve affected them as a franchise before they even said a single comment.

Because now they're reviewing it at canes brass. How much you wanna bet they're singing a different tone after seeing what they'll get out if Aho for this contract.

There's a good chance Waddell and the Canes PR staff did not read the actual details of the offer sheet and simply looked at the AAV like so many people.

 

[znk]

Billionaire owner of an NHL team valued at $500M can't afford $20M. The things you read on HF.

He aint in this to lose money though, just spent 4 mill to get a pick, just lost $70 million on his football venture. And now he needs to dish out more cash or get picks. Net worth does not mean liquidity. It all hinges on how important this is to him.

 

[Chrispy]

For all we know, Waddell convinced Dundon that he could talk Marleau into playing for them and now Dundon is pissed.

The difference between paying Marleau to play and buying out Marleau was $833,000 this season. Depending on who they pick to fill that slot, it could be cheaper to have Marleau play than not. That's why they wanted to float the idea of him playing in Carolina next year.

They said they wanted to pitch it to him but expected they would buy him out. They did, he asked to be bought out, they bought him out. And it's back to buying a 1st round pick for $3.8M.

 

[hockeyfan2k18]

You keep trying to convince yourself he won’t match. Holy Jesus I can’t remember the last time the fanbase was so collectively in denial despite the evidence staring right at us. We got credible reports of Hurricanes executives cheering, official twitter accounts trolling us and STILL a bunch of our fans are sitting there going “ nuh-uh! “

Let them have their fun. Same group who thought Duchene was coming here. Habs fans always set themselves up for failure.

 

[Jack Bauer]

We are not talking about a mid level player. We're talking about a burgeoning superstar. A smart owner, businessman is going to look at the ROI before making any decision. Is he better off paying Aho what he is worth (slightly less) and make money for 5 years building off of the success of the last layoff run? Get more people in the building, more media coverage, sell more jerseys, etc. Is all of that going to pay him back his $20M payment......or is he going to say crew it, not match...miss the playoffs, lose fans, etc but at least have his $20M?

If it's me I match. I may not be happy about it, but I match and if he needs to be traded down the road....sure. He has a decent contract. Also, winning cures all. Canes are building a hell of a team. You can easily make that money back.

If a new owner that was vetted, 1 year into ownership is counting pennies and can't afford superstar talent, it is a terrible look for the league who bends over backwards to make sure small market teams can compete.

In a years time he can trade Aho or others for assets making higher cap hits then dollars owed to earn some of his money back from this deal.

 

[Perrah]

Well at the very least you dont want to leave your player hanging for a week.

I dont think Aho is really hanging, he knows he has 42 million coming over 5 years and 11 mill in the next 11 days. Where ever Aho is, I cant imagine this week means much to him outside of waiting to see who is cutting his cheque.

 

[Koivu11]

He doesn’t have many options. He can’t possibly going into this year with a worse team, can he? His star player came out twice talking about wanting to play for now and not desiring to wait any longer. He’s already doing “ our fans can see we’re trying ‘’ bit but I don’t know...the facts are the facts and this team has missed 3 out of 4 years. After the year we had last year, how deflating would it be to not do a thing? That’s a seriously hard sell to the fanbase.

Not only that but we’d also be starting another season with a ton of cap space.