Value of: Monahan to NYR

[HighLifeMan]

Meh, Monahan is a product of Gaudreau. He's produced like a 3rd liner without Gaudreau over a substantial sample size.

Since 2014-15 (Gaudreau's rookie season), here are Monahan's 5v5 production rates:

Monahan without Gaudreau
1,479:24 TOI
G/60: 0.61
A/60: 0.77
P/60: 1.38

Monahan with Gaudreau
5,049:23 TOI
G/60: 0.97
A/60: 1.19
P/60: 2.16

That's a 60% increase in goal scoring and 57% increase in point production when with Gaudreau at 5v5 vs without.

Curious where those numbers come from?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Curious where those numbers come from?

Natural Stat Trick, you have to combine periods because the max range is 3 years:

2014-15 thru 2016-17:
Sean Monahan - Teammates - Individual - Natural Stat Trick

2017-18 thru 2019-20:
Sean Monahan - Teammates - Individual - Natural Stat Trick

And then compare vs his 5v5 totals:

Sean Monahan Summary
Sean Monahan - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

 

[HighLifeMan]

Natural Stat Trick, you have to combine periods because the max range is 3 years:

2014-15 thru 2016-17:
Sean Monahan - Teammates - Individual - Natural Stat Trick

2017-18 thru 2019-20:
Sean Monahan - Teammates - Individual - Natural Stat Trick

And then compare vs his 5v5 totals:

Sean Monahan Summary
Sean Monahan - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

Thanks, I could never find that function.

Over the past three years however that pair has played together for 2817 minutes out of Monahan's 5 on 5 time of 3126. That's just over 90% of his 5 on 5 time - I don't think you can get an accurate sense of what he can accomplish away from Gaudreau with a decent supporting cast around him.

You also have to factor in that when these two are indeed split.. it's Monahan who gets bumped down the lineup to play with the lesser talent, not Gaudreau. For instance in Johhny's rookie season over 70% of his 5 on 5 time came with Jiri Hudler, while Monahan was stuck with Glencross, Jones, and Colborne when away from them. Monahan actually produced better with Hudler than he did with Gaudreau that year.

I don't think it's a shocking revelation that Monahan's number plummet when playing with significantly worse talent. That's expected given that he relies heavily on smarts and positioning.

 

[FireGorton]

I don’t see a deal where the Rangers satisfy Flames needs without burning the farm down.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Thanks, I could never find that function.

Over the past three years however that pair has played together for 2817 minutes out of Monahan's 5 on 5 time of 3126. That's just over 90% of his 5 on 5 time - I don't think you can get an accurate sense of what he can accomplish away from Gaudreau with a decent supporting cast around him.

You also have to factor in that when these two are indeed split.. it's Monahan who gets bumped down the lineup to play with the lesser talent, not Gaudreau. For instance in Johhny's rookie season over 70% of his 5 on 5 time came with Jiri Hudler, while Monahan was stuck with Glencross, Jones, and Colborne when away from them. Monahan actually produced better with Hudler than he did with Gaudreau that year.

I don't think it's a shocking revelation that Monahan's number plummet when playing with significantly worse talent. That's expected given that he relies heavily on smarts and positioning.

So you're saying that when Monahan plays with 3rd line players he produces like a 3rd line player?

There is certainly some level of inefficiency you can assume in their time away from each other (end of shifts, adjusting to new linemates etc), but that doesn't come close to explaining the variance for Monahan.

For reference, Gaudreau's P/60 goes from 2.36 with Monahan to 1.98 without Monahan, a decent drop but pretty easily explained away by the factors above. And a lot of that time was when Josh Jooris and Markus Granlund were his linemates.

 

[tsujimoto74]

So you're saying that when Monahan plays with 3rd line players he produces like a 3rd line player?

There is certainly some level of inefficiency you can assume in their time away from each other (end of shifts, adjusting to new linemates etc), but that doesn't come close to explaining the variance for Monahan.

For reference, Gaudreau's P/60 goes from 2.36 with Monahan to 1.98 without Monahan, a decent drop but pretty easily explained away by the factors above. And a lot of that time was when Josh Jooris and Markus Granlund were his linemates.

Monahan's offensive game is a bit like Sam Reinhart's imo (little more of a goal-scorer, less of a playmaker, but similar enough underlying features). He has the offensive smarts to help make whatever linemates he has better, but he's never going to be a dynamic play-driver. The skating and creativity aren't there for that.

 

[HighLifeMan]

So you're saying that when Monahan plays with 3rd line players he produces like a 3rd line player?

There is certainly some level of inefficiency you can assume in their time away from each other (end of shifts, adjusting to new linemates etc), but that doesn't come close to explaining the variance for Monahan.

For reference, Gaudreau's P/60 goes from 2.36 with Monahan to 1.98 without Monahan, a decent drop but pretty easily explained away by the factors above. And a lot of that time was when Josh Jooris and Markus Granlund were his linemates.

Who's to say? Monahan has not had a consistent linemate outside of Gaudreau in five seasons, and the times he has been away from him for any extended period of time were with players who were out of the NHL within two or three seasons. It's not a fair assessment to make in my estimation.

Monahan has the ability to play with and augment high end talent. He is not a third liner, and if he is being used as such he is being horribly misused. I agree it is now time to split those two up as I feel they have both become to reliant on what made them so successful for so long.

Gaudreau can better compliment lower end skill players because his game is reliant on having the puck on his stick, and creating offense for himself and others through transition and open space. That doesn't make Monahan a poor player for having to rely on smarts, positioning, and a more cerebral approach.

Monahan can and would produce with just about any legitimate top six forward in the NHL. Is he better suited for a 2C spot on a contender? Absolutely. He's not, nor should anytime soon be a third liner however.

Monahan is not a product of Johhny. They are both very talented players that have helped one another, and would find success elsewhere if traded.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Monahan's offensive game is a bit like Sam Reinhart's imo (little more of a goal-scorer, less of a playmaker, but similar enough underlying features). He has the offensive smarts to help make whatever linemates he has better, but he's never going to be a dynamic play-driver. The skating and creativity aren't there for that.

Agreed, he can be a solid complimentary piece because he is a great finisher around the net and is able to make plays when stationary. But he's probably a bit misplaced as a center given his poor skating and lack of creativity.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Who's to say? Monahan has not had a consistent linemate outside of Gaudreau in five seasons, and the times he has been away from him for any extended period of time were with players who were out of the NHL within two or three seasons. It's not a fair assessment to make in my estimation.

Monahan has the ability to play with and augment high end talent. He is not a third liner, and if he is being used as such he is being horribly misused. I agree it is now time to split those two up as I feel they have both become to reliant on what made them so successful for so long.

Gaudreau can better compliment lower end skill players because his game is reliant on having the puck on his stick, and creating offense for himself and others through transition and open space. That doesn't make Monahan a poor player for having to rely on smarts, positioning, and a more cerebral approach.

Monahan can and would produce with just about any legitimate top six forward in the NHL. Is he better suited for a 2C spot on a contender? Absolutely. He's not, nor should anytime soon be a third liner however.

Monahan is not a product of Johhny. They are both very talented players that have helped one another, and would find success elsewhere if traded.

Monahan is able to produce like a 1st line player when surrounded by 1st line players. But when surrounded by 3rd liners, he has produced like a 3rd liner. The data is pretty clear on that.

That doesn't make him a 3rd line player, but it does make him a product of his linemates. And given his primarily linemate has been Gaudreau, he's been a product of Gaudreau.

 

[lakeshirts37]

5v5 Ice time with Zibanejad:
Buchnevich 481:42
Kreider 448:12
(Georgiev)
Trouba 326:22
Skjei 261:52
(Lundqvist)
Fox 250:12
DeAngelo 247:55
Panarin 233:01

Don't worry buddy, it's okay to admit you have no idea what you're talking about

@Double Dion thoughts?

 

[Big guns]

Meh, Monahan is a product of Gaudreau. He's produced like a 3rd liner without Gaudreau over a substantial sample size.

Since 2014-15 (Gaudreau's rookie season), here are Monahan's 5v5 production rates:

Monahan without Gaudreau
1,479:24 TOI
G/60: 0.61
A/60: 0.77
P/60: 1.38

Monahan with Gaudreau
5,049:23 TOI
G/60: 0.97
A/60: 1.19
P/60: 2.16

That's a 60% increase in goal scoring and 57% increase in point production when with Gaudreau at 5v5 vs without.

Sooooo care to show me who doesn't benefit from playing with a highly talented winger? I mean Craig Conroy could totally have been a first line center.
You also don't take into account that these are players just in the middle of their peaks so much of the time you show relates to the first couple of years in the league.

So If Monahan is traded you really think hes going to play on the third line with his new team?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Sooooo care to show me who doesn't benefit from playing with a highly talented winger?

Care to show me other centers who's production falls off so significantly without said highly talented winger?

You also don't take into account that these are players just in the middle of their peaks so much of the time you show relates to the first couple of years in the league.

Umm the first year in my sample Monahan potted 31g and 62p, essentially Monahan's average production throughout his career.

So If Monahan is traded you really think hes going to play on the third line with his new team?

I never said that. But if the team that acquires him doesn't have an elite offensive winger available to pair him with, they likely to be very disappointed in their return. And there are only a handful of teams that have a player like that, and even less who have a player like that who isn't already successfully paired with a center.

Think of guys like Kane, Marner, Panarin, and Marchand.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Shest for Money

You don’t have the players to trade for Shestyorkin.

 

[Big guns]

Care to show me other centers who's production falls off so significantly without said highly talented winger?



Umm the first year in my sample Monahan potted 31g and 62p, essentially Monahan's average production throughout his career.



I never said that. But if the team that acquires him doesn't have an elite offensive winger available to pair him with, they likely to be very disappointed in their return. And there are only a handful of teams that have a player like that, and even less who have a player like that who isn't already successfully paired with a center.

Think of guys like Kane, Marner, Panarin, and Marchand.

uh huh

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

uh huh

It's almost identical to Monahan's career average per 82 games. Its basic math, but I'll explain it to you to make sure you understand:

Monahan's career numbers: 541 games played 194 goals 411 points

That equates to:
29.4 goals per 82 games
62.3 points per 82 games

In fact, in 2014-15 he collected those 31 goals and 62 points in only 81 games, so that first season is actually slightly better than his career average.

31.4 goals per 82 games (+2 goals above career avg)
62.8 points per 82 games (+0.5 points above career avg)

 

[bernmeister]

You don’t have the players to trade for Shestyorkin.

concur
also if ever, Shesty is not available at earliest only if we have an adequate replacement lined up. Wall is still being groomed to be his back up.

So even if courtesy to entertain the idea, no.

 

[DropIt]

You don’t have the players to trade for Shestyorkin.

Probably true.

Same way the Rangers wouldn't be willing to part with Monahans ask

 

[Barnaby]

I wouldn’t be willing to pay what it would take to get Monahan. I don’t the teams are a good match.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Meh, Monahan is a product of Gaudreau. He's produced like a 3rd liner without Gaudreau over a substantial sample size.

Since 2014-15 (Gaudreau's rookie season), here are Monahan's 5v5 production rates:

Monahan without Gaudreau
1,479:24 TOI
G/60: 0.61
A/60: 0.77
P/60: 1.38

Monahan with Gaudreau
5,049:23 TOI
G/60: 0.97
A/60: 1.19
P/60: 2.16

That's a 60% increase in goal scoring and 57% increase in point production when with Gaudreau at 5v5 vs without.

You see the problem with those TOI numbers is how ridiculously far apart they are. Since the 14/15 season Monahan has played a total of 6,530:79 minutes at 5v5 in the regular season, of that total 5,051:25 minutes have been played with Gaudreau. That leaves a total of 1,479:54 minutes of 5v5 of them separated with 656:19 of those isolated minutes taking place in the 14/15 season. That's more than a 3rd of their separated ice time. So for sake of consistency lets remove that massive outlier That leaves us with a total of 4,518:57 minutes together and 823:35 minutes apart at 5v5. That is 18.2% of the last 5 years, not even a 1/5th. A lot of those minutes can also be from added up from shift changes over the ~380 games they played together.

On another not, in New York Monahan would literally be stepping into Strome's current role with the team which is centering Panarin (maybe soon to be Lafreniere too). I don't know about you but that doesn't seem like a downgrade from loosing Johnny as your provider. I would be very surprised if his production had a massive fall off. The idea of Monahan being a product of Gaudreau seems like a minuscule issue when you factor in who his new linemates would be.

 

[Dr Quincy]

So Rangers want Monahan but off the table are:
Zib
Panarin
Fox
Nils
Shesty
Kaako
LaFreniere

On the table some combo of 2 or 3 of these:
DeAngelo
Buchnevich
Georgiev
A 1st in the 20s



Hmm, yeah don't see a deal here

 

[Mikachu93]

So Rangers want Monahan but off the table are:
Zib
Panarin
Fox
Nils
Shesty
Kaako
LaFreniere

On the table some combo of 2 or 3 of these:
DeAngelo
Buchnevich
Georgiev
A 1st in the 20s



Hmm, yeah don't see a deal here

Well yea, most of the assets listed in the top tier there are more valuable assets than Monahan.

DeAngelo, a defenseman, just outscored Monahan this season. Buch had 2 less points, Georgiev would be Calgary's starter, and a 1st round pick in a deep draft isn't an insignificant asset.

Are you really expecting Lafreniere or Zibanejad in return for Monahan? Get real.

 

[FameFlame069]

I don't see a palatable trade being done between these two teams with Monahan being involved, unless Calgary is improving on Monahan, they are not trading him at all.

 

[Raspewtin]

just don't think the Rangers need a Monahan right now

 

[Mobiandi]

The only player I want from the Rangers is Zibanejad so...

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Well yea, most of the assets listed in the top tier there are more valuable assets than Monahan.

DeAngelo, a defenseman, just outscored Monahan this season. Buch had 2 less points, Georgiev would be Calgary's starter, and a 1st round pick in a deep draft isn't an insignificant asset.

Are you really expecting Lafreniere or Zibanejad in return for Monahan? Get real.

This is what Gorton is going to have to get good at. He's going to need to take a hard line. I'm sure NHL GM's will make the same arguments as posters on this website, and he's going to need to explain to them what you just did. He has better assets than other teams. That has to factor into trade discussions. The same way that Tampa can cordon off half their team because of how many talented players they have, Gorton's going to have to start explaining that point to other GM's.