Part of whether you go in the top ten or not is based on your competition, both the quality of the other prospects in that neighborhood and the quality of all other prospects at your given position.
So, how likely to "reach" for a goalie will teams be?
Once you get past Cossa, the next sorta 'tier' of goalies are OHL goalies who, unlike OHL forwards and defenders, couldn't easily find teams in Europe to play on when the OHL shut down for the pandemic. So, those OHL goalies haven't been tested much, some of them haven't played a single game, in over a year. So, confidence in them isn't great and it's as a result of a problem nobody has faced in past drafts.
Jonathan Bernier got picked 11th, outside the top ten, and there was a lot of buzz around him that year, but it wasn't during a pandemic which shut down leagues and kept other goalies from playing, or kept them from playing more than just a handful of games.