OT: MLB Discussion Thread: Part XXV

[One Winged Angel]

Every. Player. Hits. Better. At. Home.

Not every players numbers drop as badly as players from Coors to away from home. Plus the air in Coors is a far greater amplifier than playing in Yankee stadium.

 

[Machinehead]

Not every players numbers drop as badly as players from Coors to away from home. Plus the air in Coors is a far greater amplifier than playing in Yankee stadium.

In some cases, they do drop that badly.

Aaron Judge is a slightly above average hitter on the road.

 

[One Winged Angel]

In some cases, they do drop that badly.

Aaron Judge is a slightly above average hitter on the road.

Aaron Judge is a slightly above average hitter on the road in a division where he faces the Red Sox and Rays pitching staffs.

LaMahieu has had Kershaw and Grienke and a Giants pitching staff that has fallen off drastically over the last 5 years and nevermind 2017 and 2018.

You’re reaching horribly there by leaving important context out.

 

[One Winged Angel]

In some cases, they do drop that badly.

Aaron Judge is a slightly above average hitter on the road.

Also, Judge is entering his 3rd full season and is still figuring out how to make adjustments. LeMahieu has been in the league for years. Judge can fix his problems. LeMahieu has to prove that he can hit outside of Coors everyday now AND has to do it against better pitching than he’s faced previously.

Apples to oranges.

 

[RGY]

30 million a year for 15% more walks and synergy.

This is a bit of a reach for you MH. He brings more than that.

The whole point was simply disputing that Stanton is not “far better” than Harper. They are close. Both great hitters imo. And the reality is if both were to play in Yankee Stadium over the next 3 years Harper has the advantage as a Lefty hitter. A significant advantage. Fly balls become home runs. He could hit 50+ in the Stadium.

 

[Machinehead]

This is a bit of a reach for you MH. He brings more than that.

The whole point was simply disputing that Stanton is not “far better” than Harper. They are close. Both great hitters imo. And the reality is if both were to play in Yankee Stadium over the next 3 years Harper has the advantage as a Lefty hitter. A significant advantage. Fly balls become home runs. He could hit 50+ in the Stadium.

If we were replacing Stanton with Harper, I could get behind this argument.

In reality, we'd be taking on another huge contract. With Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez, the Yankees really don't need to spend big on power hitters. Harper is a 7-8 year commitment. What if a pitcher becomes available in the next year or two that puts us over the top?

 

[SA16]

Every player most certainly does not hit better at home. Since 2015 there are eight teams with better road wOBA than home wOBA and it's pretty much all teams in pitchers parks. Mets, Marlins, Cardinals, Athletics, Rays, Astros, Mariners, Braves.

Conversely, no surprise whatsoever that the teams that are the best a home relative to the road are the Rockies, Rangers, and Red Sox.

In a neutral context where all teams had the same parks and weather that would be the case but the ideal is not the reality.

 

[One Winged Angel]

If we were replacing Stanton with Harper, I could get behind this argument.

In reality, we'd be taking on another huge contract. With Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez, the Yankees really don't need to spend big on power hitters. Harper is a 7-8 year commitment. What if a pitcher becomes available in the next year or two that puts us over the top?

While I understand the financial aspect of it, how do any of us know what player is going to get what amount of years? If it was that simple, someone would have signed Harper or Machado already.

Things could change and change real soon.

 

[Machinehead]

While I understand the financial aspect of it, how do any of us know what player is going to get what amount of years? If it was that simple, someone would have signed Harper or Machado already.

Things could change and change real soon.

Harper has pretty much said he's not taking a short-term deal.

 

[RGY]

Harper has pretty much said he's not taking a short-term deal.

The Yankees can create salary flexibility in 2 years. A lot of money is coming off the book. They will be able to re-sign their young stars. They could always look into eating some of Stanton’s money to move him.

They dont appear to be adding a high end SP now and Harper is sitting there. They dont have a big lefty bat. He can help balance the lineup and put us in an even better position to win.

 

[Machinehead]

The Yankees can create salary flexibility in 2 years. A lot of money is coming off the book. They will be able to re-sign their young stars. They could always look into eating some of Stanton’s money to move him.

They dont appear to be adding a high end SP now and Harper is sitting there. They dont have a big lefty bat. He can help balance the lineup and put us in an even better position to win.

Again, the whole thing here seems to be that he's left-handed.

I don't think it's THAT big of a deal. It's not a 30 x 7/8 big of a deal.

 

[RGY]

Again, the whole thing here seems to be that he's left-handed.

I don't think it's THAT big of a deal. It's not a 30 x 7/8 big of a deal.

I am ok with giving him that money. Takes him to age 34. That is fair value to me. I also think there can be creativity with opt-outs and opt-in’s for Harper as the years go by in the contract. 5 year deal upfront with opt-ins for additional years.

 

[JimmyG89]

Again, the whole thing here seems to be that he's left-handed.

If that is the case, they'd be better off signing someone like Moustakas for a year or two and play him at 3rd/1st/DH. It's not a huge drop off in terms of offense, based on the amount paid and long term investment. Also, he plays positions they could use help with. He could play 3rd or 1st, and Andujar the other.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Harper has pretty much said he's not taking a short-term deal.

That’s great, they also said they wanted 300-400 million.

Can’t always get what you want and no owner shows any sign of being willing to meet his or Machado’s demands.

 

[Machinehead]

We wouldn't have this problem if Greg Bird were an MLB player.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Every player most certainly does not hit better at home. Since 2015 there are eight teams with better road wOBA than home wOBA and it's pretty much all teams in pitchers parks. Mets, Marlins, Cardinals, Athletics, Rays, Astros, Mariners, Braves.

Conversely, no surprise whatsoever that the teams that are the best a home relative to the road are the Rockies, Rangers, and Red Sox.

In a neutral context where all teams had the same parks and weather that would be the case but the ideal is not the reality.

Excellent post, thank you.

 

[One Winged Angel]

We wouldn't have this problem if Greg Bird were an MLB player.

Having his bat would help, but his defense would still be awful. Andujar’s defense wouldn’t have gotten better because of Bird being something more than a spare part.

Frazier nor Florial have the potential to be what Harper is at his very best. Andujar is a lot closer to Machado right now than Florial or Frazier could ever possibly be to Harper at Harper’s peak.

And to answer a future question, yes, Harper is worth the increase in pay from Hicks. I know there are some out there who will try to suggest that, but he most definitely is that much better than Hicks.

 

[Machinehead]

Having his bat would help, but his defense would still be awful. Andujar’s defense wouldn’t have gotten better because of Bird being something more than a spare part.

Frazier nor Florial have the potential to be what Harper is at his very best. Andujar is a lot closer to Machado right now than Florial or Frazier could ever possibly be to Harper at Harper’s peak.

And to answer a future question, yes, Harper is worth the increase in pay from Hicks. I know there are some out there who will try to suggest that, but he most definitely is that much better than Hicks.

He's a much better bat than Hicks, but who plays CF? Harper can't even play RF.

 

[Machinehead]

If Mike Trout only played til he's 38 and started a significant decline at 30, he would still hit about 144 WAR.

 

[One Winged Angel]

He's a much better bat than Hicks, but who plays CF? Harper can't even play RF.

Judge. He played CF in minors and majors.

 

[sbjnyc]

Updated world series odds have Yanks favorites at +600 followed by Red Sox and Astros at +700. Mets have the same odds as Braves and Indians at +1600. Orioles at +25000 have a wins over/under at around 60 and I think they are still a clear under.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Judge. He played CF in minors and majors.

9 games started as a center fielder in his Minor League career, 8 innings of Center field work in the Majors. I wouldn't really say he 'played' CF.

Judge is a great Right Fielder but he'd be a well below-average center fielder and probably a liability if he were to roam Center regularly.

If they did get Bryce he and Stanton would rotate as DH/LF probably with Stanton seeing more DH time than Bryce, unless they decide to run with that 'Harper is a 1b nonsense'.

 

[Machinehead]

The defense is really my sticking point. I could be sold on everything else.

As it is, we already have a DH playing 3B because we have a full-time DH, because we have four MLB outfielders, arguably five if Frazier is healthy.

Harper takes that minor car fire and slathers it in napalm.

 

[Irishguy42]

 

[One Winged Angel]

9 games started as a center fielder in his Minor League career, 8 innings of Center field work in the Majors. I wouldn't really say he 'played' CF.

Judge is a great Right Fielder but he'd be a well below-average center fielder and probably a liability if he were to roam Center regularly.

An assumption, at best. I understand CF is the hardest of the outfield positions, but nothing about Judge shows that he’d have below average range and so on. There would probably be an adjustment period, but over time, kinks can be worked out.

If they did get Bryce he and Stanton would rotate as DH/LF probably with Stanton seeing more DH time than Bryce, unless they decide to run with that 'Harper is a 1b nonsense'.

I personally think Machado is the better fit of the two, but we don’t know what they would do in the event that they actually signed Harper. It’s nothing but speculation at this point.