Mitch "Selke" Marner

[DarkKnight]

Correction: Marner is getting the opportunity to do it all.

Playing PK isn't hard. If you notice BTW, our PK is worse than average.

It's a tough award to win, especially for wingers.

Marner will never even be nominated for a Selke let alone win one.

K.

 

[Morgs]

Why are unblocked shots from the slot a good indicator of Mitch's defensive abilities?

When Mitch is on the ice, the team sees 14% increase in unblocked shot attempts. It's not all on him, but notice the top-right part where he plays compared to the left-side (primarily Hyman).

Thats just a visual anyway.

 

[ACC1224]

If moved to Center and asked to play a 'Selke' role, no doubt he would excel at it.
That would be a waste of his talents though.

 

[DarkKnight]

I just laugh at people trying to undercut this kid. He has one of the most potent combinations of talent and desire in the league. He's a puck hound, he disrupts the other team routinely, plus he's an offensive dynamo. Sometime wrong with your "thought process" if you try to diminish his role. Just a pure treat to have on this team.

 

[ACC1224]

I just laugh at people trying to undercut this kid. He has one of the most potent combinations of talent and desire in the league. He's a puck hound, he disrupts the other team routinely, plus he's an offensive dynamo. Sometime wrong with your "thought process" if you try to diminish his role. Just a pure treat to have on this team.

Yeah it's really strange.
I'm guessing there are those that were wrong about him all along and won't allow themselves to admit it.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

If moved to Center and asked to play a 'Selke' role, no doubt he would excel at it.
That would be a waste of his talents though.

Without a doubt he has a chance to excel at it but it is not easy to do whatsoever.

I just laugh at people trying to undercut this kid. He has one of the most potent combinations of talent and desire in the league. He's a puck hound, he disrupts the other team routinely, plus he's an offensive dynamo. Sometime wrong with your "thought process" if you try to diminish his role. Just a pure treat to have on this team.

Nobody is trying to say that he's not one of the most elite wingers in this game. Not me, not Morgs, nobody else. What the people that say that about him understand is that the emotional side of leaf fans tend to lean heavily into having Marner as the favourite and "best" player. Leaf fans on this website have him overvalued it's as straightforward as that. He's my personal favourite player and he can be a hart winner one day or maybe even capture an art ross in the future. Selke however? I doubt that he ever approaches the top 5 or so.

Total agreement in that he's a treat to watch as long as he doesn't try and get too fancy

 

[Bluelines]

When Mitch is on the ice, the team sees 14% increase in unblocked shot attempts. It's not all on him, but notice the top-right part where he plays compared to the left-side (primarily Hyman).

Thats just a visual anyway.

OK that's fair but SOG is not the best proxy for defensive play.

 

[DarkKnight]

Here's a good breakdown of Marner defensively. Note the title

https://www.tsn.ca/radio/toronto-10...-becoming-an-elite-defensive-player-1.1268811

 

[DarkKnight]

Yeah it's really strange.
I'm guessing there are those that were wrong about him all along and won't allow themselves to admit it.

Bingo!

 

[DarkKnight]

Without a doubt he has a chance to excel at it but it is not easy to do whatsoever.

Nobody is trying to say that he's not one of the most elite wingers in this game. Not me, not Morgs, nobody else. What the people that say that about him understand is that the emotional side of leaf fans tend to lean heavily into having Marner as the favourite and "best" player. Leaf fans on this website have him overvalued it's as straightforward as that. He's my personal favourite player and he can be a hart winner one day or maybe even capture an art ross in the future. Selke however? I doubt that he ever approaches the top 5 or so.

Total agreement in that he's a treat to watch as long as he doesn't try and get too fancy

Wasn't really directed at you, it's up for scrutiny. Check out link I provided as well, interesting.

 

[Morgs]

OK that's fair but SOG is not the best proxy for defensive play.

Ok, I'll bite. What is?

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

Wasn't really directed at you, it's up for scrutiny. Check out link I provided as well, interesting.

Haha I would but I'm in the middle of accounting class so can't play it out loud.

What I do know for a fact is that he's one of the most dangerous forwards in the league at breaking up passes in the offensive zone and also he's got that Hyman tenacity that everyone loves. The thing is, you look at players around the league like Mark stone, Sebastian Aho, Sasha Barkov, Bergeron, and so many more guys that Marner realistically never has a good shot at the award. Talking strictly award not effectiveness here.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

Ok, I'll bite. What is?

Is there a stat that's basically expected goals for against relative to team?

 

[DarkKnight]

Haha I would but I'm in the middle of accounting class so can't play it out loud.

What I do know for a fact is that he's one of the most dangerous forwards in the league at breaking up passes in the offensive zone and also he's got that Hyman tenacity that everyone loves. The thing is, you look at players around the league like Mark stone, Sebastian Aho, Sasha Barkov, Bergeron, and so many more guys that Marner realistically never has a good shot at the award. Talking strictly award not effectiveness here.

Good class I guess lol.

 

[2022 Stanley Cup]

Good class I guess lol.

'Dislikes post'

 

[Bluelines]

Ok, I'll bite. What is?

IMO shots given up is a function of the players you play against, the system you play, etc. The link that DarkKnight provided really sums it up for me.

 

[DarkKnight]

If I'm Marner's agent I send a video of Jon Cooper talking about Marner to Kyle.

 

[deletethis]

I don't know whether it has been discussed but Marner's season only the 8th time in Leafs' history for 60 assists.

Scoring
Rk	Player		Tm	Lg	Pos	Season	Age	GP	A ▼	PTS	+/-	PIM
1	Doug Gilmour*		TOR	NHL	C	1992-93	29	83	95	127	32	100
2	Doug Gilmour*		TOR	NHL	C	1993-94	30	83	84	111	25	105
3	Darryl Sittler*		TOR	NHL	C	1977-78	27	80	72	117	34	100
4	Borje Salming*		TOR	NHL	D	1976-77	25	76	66	78	45	46
5	Vincent Damphousse		TOR	NHL	LW	1989-90	22	80	61	94	2	56
6	Borje Salming*		TOR	NHL	D	1980-81	29	72	61	66	0	154
7	Mitch Marner		TOR	NHL	C	2018-19	21	70	60	84	24	22
8	Borje Salming*		TOR	NHL	D	1977-78	26	80	60	76	30	70

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Nithoniniel]

If Hossa could barely get any interest for Selke, Marner is not even close. Even now you have people like Stone getting completely overlooked, just because of positional bias. It's justified normally, but the best defensive wingers have a lot of freedom in the defensive zone to make reads and deviate from position, and they are usually superb in the neutral zone. Marner's ability to make reads at the offensive blueline is absolutely ridiculous though, one of the best I've ever seen.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I don't know whether it has been discussed but Marner's season only the 8th time in Leafs' history for 60 assists.

Scoring
Rk	Player		Tm	Lg	Pos	Season	Age	GP	A ▼	PTS	+/-	PIM
1	Doug Gilmour*		TOR	NHL	C	1992-93	29	83	95	127	32	100
2	Doug Gilmour*		TOR	NHL	C	1993-94	30	83	84	111	25	105
3	Darryl Sittler*		TOR	NHL	C	1977-78	27	80	72	117	34	100
4	Borje Salming*		TOR	NHL	D	1976-77	25	76	66	78	45	46
5	Vincent Damphousse		TOR	NHL	LW	1989-90	22	80	61	94	2	56
6	Borje Salming*		TOR	NHL	D	1980-81	29	72	61	66	0	154
7	Mitch Marner		TOR	NHL	C	2018-19	21	70	60	84	24	22
8	Borje Salming*		TOR	NHL	D	1977-78	26	80	60	76	30	70

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Man, this isn’t meant as a criticism of Marner... but charts like that show just how rare it is for leafs to have elite players.

Edmonton’s been around for 1/3rd the time, and I just saw that they have almost as many 60 assist seasons from DEFENSEMEN. Once you include forwards in the mix, things get real ugly.

 

[Semantics]

When Mitch is on the ice, the team sees 14% increase in unblocked shot attempts. It's not all on him, but notice the top-right part where he plays compared to the left-side (primarily Hyman).

The left winger is going against the right defenseman. As Leafs fans are well aware, good RD are a scarce commodity in the NHL, and quite often you might have a left shot there which makes it much harder to keep the puck in.

This also doesn't account for the fact that Marner's line is likely to just be a high-event line in general, as well as his side of the ice. We need to separate the player's defensive play from the role/playstyle. Marner could have great shots against stats if they just trapped all game, but that wouldn't make him a better defensive player.

Conversely, you can ask how does Marner do relative to how other players would perform in a similar role? I'd bet that Phil Kessel's shots against chart looked much worse than that when he played here. Marner isn't a Selke-level defender, but he's definitely better than most offensive stars who play RW.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I stills expect Matthews to be our best defensive forward long term, I know the idea sounds crazy now but last year he looked to be trending that way. I don't think anyone on this team will be selke good, Marner's as good as anyone on the Leafs but doesn't measure up defensively league wide, I would be stunned if he ever got nominated.

 

[Morgs]

The left winger is going against the right defenseman. As Leafs fans are well aware, good RD are a scarce commodity in the NHL, and quite often you might have a left shot there which makes it much harder to keep the puck in.

This also doesn't account for the fact that Marner's line is likely to just be a high-event line in general, as well as his side of the ice. We need to separate the player's defensive play from the role/playstyle. Marner could have great shots against stats if they just trapped all game, but that wouldn't make him a better defensive player.

Conversely, you can ask how does Marner do relative to how other players would perform in a similar role? I'd bet that Phil Kessel's shots against chart looked much worse than that when he played here. Marner isn't a Selke-level defender, but he's definitely better than most offensive stars who play RW.

Again, that chart was just for people who don't understand xGA/60 RAPM.

As I said in my first message, he's not Laine, P. Kane, McDavid bad or even Matthews bad for that matter, but he's not good.

 

[zeke]

Man, this isn’t meant as a criticism of Marner... but charts like that show just how rare it is for leafs to have elite players.

Edmonton’s been around for 1/3rd the time, and I just saw that they have almost as many 60 assist seasons from DEFENSEMEN. Once you include forwards in the mix, things get real ugly.

and we finally have legit elite talent all over the lineup.....and leafs fans are angrily reminiscing about the gritty undertalented teams of yesteryear.

 

[cannucky]

Got to love the guys arguing he doesn't block enough shots after the coaches outright told him the first year to stop blocking shots , figure it out eh ! How about show me a chart regarding all the goals he stops picking off plays on the back check .