Mitch "Selke" Marner

Will Mitch, at some point, during his career win the Selke?


  • Total voters
    78

Peiskos

Registered User
Jan 4, 2018
3,665
3,614
To be fair to kessel and Sundin... they didn’t play on teams with a line mate as skilled as Tavares, nor did they play on teams with the offensive depth as today’s team. Not to mention this era is much higher in scoring then back then.

Plenty of teams managed to have 90+ point players while we had Sundin and while we had Kessel, I'm over the excuses, Leafs had cup caliber teams during the late 90's and early 00's with Sundin, just unlucky. My original comment stands, the Leafs haven't had a 90+ point player since 1996-97. ..23 years...its been a LONG time coming.
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
19,520
15,392
London, ON
Are you seriously gonna base 'unblocked shots' as an important aspect? Cuz it isn't! Do you see his back-checking,his anticipation,his steals as a non factor! The hell are you watchin'?

He's fine defensively for a winger who should be on a scoring line. Like I said, he's not awful, and not bad, but "Selke" and "matchup line" should not be mentioned in the same breath as Marner without someone saying "he shouldn't".
 

hector morrison

Registered User
Apr 1, 2018
4,792
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He's fine defensively for a winger who should be on a scoring line. Like I said, he's not awful, and not bad, but "Selke" and "matchup line" should not be mentioned in the same breath as Marner without someone saying "he shouldn't".
I watch a lot of other teams play...I'm not seeing a whole lot of forwards doing what Marner does. Hardly anyone back-checks like that kid! He doesn't quit,he gets the puck...not sure of the 'steals'numbers but i wouldn't be surprised if they were top ten.
There are many stats to use for arguments sake,but I prefer the eye test combined with when in the game players are at their best and who they play against. No stat is going to replace that!
 

TMLeafer

Rest in Peace Johnny Bower
Mar 23, 2008
47,449
17,670
Hockey Mecca, ON
He's more exciting on the PK than most players are 5 on 5. He makes the correct read almost every time when tracking down d-men going back to regroup in their own zone.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
78,417
52,615
He's more exciting on the PK than most players are 5 on 5. He makes the correct read almost every time when tracking down d-men going back to regroup in their own zone.

He's actually more interesting to watch on the PK than 5 on 5 or on the PP.
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
19,520
15,392
London, ON
I watch a lot of other teams play...I'm not seeing a whole lot of forwards doing what Marner does. Hardly anyone back-checks like that kid! He doesn't quit,he gets the puck...not sure of the 'steals'numbers but i wouldn't be surprised if they were top ten.
There are many stats to use for arguments sake,but I prefer the eye test combined with when in the game players are at their best and who they play against. No stat is going to replace that!

I think we'll have to agree to disagree.
 

Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
14,093
5,095
Plenty of teams managed to have 90+ point players while we had Sundin and while we had Kessel, I'm over the excuses, Leafs had cup caliber teams during the late 90's and early 00's with Sundin, just unlucky. My original comment stands, the Leafs haven't had a 90+ point player since 1996-97. ..23 years...its been a LONG time coming.

Mats Sundin was 4 overall in the entire NHL with 80 points in 2001-2002.... 4th overall.

Marner is currently 12th overall in points with 85.

Guess... Marner is far superior to all the 2002 players... Jagr, Sakic etc.
 

hector morrison

Registered User
Apr 1, 2018
4,792
1,998
Marner might not even be a top 5 forward on this team defensively
Not sure how you're measuring that,but it's not what I'm seein'.Leads the team in steals,not to mention the countless plays he breaks up.
He is in a role where his offense is so obvious that the defense gets over looked.
 

Nithoniniel

Registered User
Sep 7, 2012
20,913
16,749
Skövde, Sweden
I think we'll have to agree to disagree.
That reminds me of when people claimed that Bozak was terrific on the backcheck. I tracked it for close to ten games, and Bozak was by far the worst back checker on his line. Even when he was the high guy, one of his wingers usually was the first man back.

With Marner, I really feel like there's a reputation effect there. He has a reputation as a constantly hard working player who is great defensively, ever since junior. He has a good work ethic, but it's not close to what someone like Hyman has. He's also got the laziest shift of any Leafs forward this season. I feel like he and Tavares gets a pass for plays like this based on reputation, while Matthews or Nylander gets roasted, also mostly based on reputation.

As for his defense. He can make great reads, his neutral zone defense is good, his ability to read the play and steal the puck at the offensive blue line is second-to-none, except maybe Stone. And his PK work when pressuring up ice just constantly makes me shake my head. It's ridiculous. All those things makes me understand why people give him tons of credit as a defensive player. But great defense doesn't come from the big plays, it comes from how you do on the hundreds of minor plays. Your positioning, how well you time creating pressure down low without giving up the point completely, never letting your guy get to the inside of you. That's harder to judge because it's hard to gauge the effect of so many plays, and that's where stats can help you out.

On-ice stats are not flattering for him there. On the other hand, you can look at for example Berkshire's rankings. Marner ranks very well there, with a 8.97 ranking out of a maximum 15. Nylander is right behind him. Both of them rate out well compared to most right wings on that list. Stone is head and shoulders above anyone else. Wheeler is a big step up on Marner too. But both our guys are in the next group.

Here's what those rankings are based on: 5-on-5 and shorthanded loose puck recoveries by zone, blocked passes, stick checks, body checks, blocked shots, puck battles won, penalties taken, on-ice goals against relative to teammates, on-ice shot attempts against relative to teammates, on-ice passes to the slot against relative to teammates, on-ice high danger chances against relative to teammates (all per 60 minutes), turnover rate by zone relative to teammates.
 

Bluelines

Python FTW!
Nov 17, 2013
12,349
4,559
Yeah ,it really is easier to just watch him play! Stat it up all you like ,he is usually the best player on the ice and thinks 2 steps ahead of most players as well,which could very well break the trend of a center winning a Selke.

IIRC the % of the unblocked shots provided in that heat graph was 14%, if you say on average each line gives up 8 shots per game (32 SOG per game), 14% above that would be 9.12, so that is one shot on average above other players.

The guys is truly unreal defensively, he might be our best all all around forward.
 

Bluelines

Python FTW!
Nov 17, 2013
12,349
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That reminds me of when people claimed that Bozak was terrific on the backcheck. I tracked it for close to ten games, and Bozak was by far the worst back checker on his line. Even when he was the high guy, one of his wingers usually was the first man back.

With Marner, I really feel like there's a reputation effect there. He has a reputation as a constantly hard working player who is great defensively, ever since junior. He has a good work ethic, but it's not close to what someone like Hyman has. He's also got the laziest shift of any Leafs forward this season. I feel like he and Tavares gets a pass for plays like this based on reputation, while Matthews or Nylander gets roasted, also mostly based on reputation.

As for his defense. He can make great reads, his neutral zone defense is good, his ability to read the play and steal the puck at the offensive blue line is second-to-none, except maybe Stone. And his PK work when pressuring up ice just constantly makes me shake my head. It's ridiculous. All those things makes me understand why people give him tons of credit as a defensive player. But great defense doesn't come from the big plays, it comes from how you do on the hundreds of minor plays. Your positioning, how well you time creating pressure down low without giving up the point completely, never letting your guy get to the inside of you. That's harder to judge because it's hard to gauge the effect of so many plays, and that's where stats can help you out.

On-ice stats are not flattering for him there. On the other hand, you can look at for example Berkshire's rankings. Marner ranks very well there, with a 8.97 ranking out of a maximum 15. Nylander is right behind him. Both of them rate out well compared to most right wings on that list. Stone is head and shoulders above anyone else. Wheeler is a big step up on Marner too. But both our guys are in the next group.

Here's what those rankings are based on: 5-on-5 and shorthanded loose puck recoveries by zone, blocked passes, stick checks, body checks, blocked shots, puck battles won, penalties taken, on-ice goals against relative to teammates, on-ice shot attempts against relative to teammates, on-ice passes to the slot against relative to teammates, on-ice high danger chances against relative to teammates (all per 60 minutes), turnover rate by zone relative to teammates.

I think one of the promising things is the players you mention are significantly older and more experienced than both Marner and Nylander, maybe I'm seeing the world through rose colored glasses but I would suspect in 3 to 5 years you will easily mentioning both of them (Wille & Mitch) in the same category as Stone and Wheeler. I remember when Stone was just coming into the league he made a reputation doing less that what Marner is doing today.

Marner 21 years old
Stone 26 years old
Wheeler 32 years old
 
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Bluelines

Python FTW!
Nov 17, 2013
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I've only heard some chatter about this recently. I can see him getting a handful of votes but enough to be considered a finalist. Maybe at some point in the future? It'll be tough, it's been a long time since a winger has won. (Jere Lehtinen won his 3rd in 02-03)

Yeah I personally think some of these awards are reputation awards and you actually win it years before you actually win it. I could see him winning it in 3 to 5 years.
 
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koyvoo

Registered User
Nov 8, 2014
17,254
17,030
I think it was Dougie in 93? Maybe Matt's did it after that.
Sundin hit over 90 pts once in Toronto (94), a number that Mitch will almost certainly pass this season. Marner (at the age of 21) is on track to have the highest points totals for a leaf since Gilmour had 111 pts twenty five years ago.
 

Bluelines

Python FTW!
Nov 17, 2013
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He was doing the same things in the Calgary game that western trip. He is zoned in to the Nhl now like every other league he played in and crushed eventually.

Now he is crushing it in the Nhl. I'm not surprised. Not being arrogant here, i just had that confidence in him.

He's a superstar on the way up further i believe. He's going to get a big big contract and everyone will dump on Dubas like they know better.

Dubas has his best player coning up for renewal and i believe he gets a 8 year deal @ $ame as Matthews.

I'm not being arrogant when I say, I said this back in October, Marner is every bit as valuable to our team as Matthews.
 

Bluelines

Python FTW!
Nov 17, 2013
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Frikken deadly! Word is out ,can't be casual about your play just because you're a man up...he's getting better !

I picked up on one of his 'go to' moves last night when he was chasing a guy behind the net, it is a pretty smart thing that he does, it is a slight of hand.. I bet the guy is an incredible poker player, its like he calculates the odds that a play is going to happen and reacts before the other player even moves the puck off his stick.
 

Bluelines

Python FTW!
Nov 17, 2013
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Not sure how you're measuring that,but it's not what I'm seein'.Leads the team in steals,not to mention the countless plays he breaks up.
He is in a role where his offense is so obvious that the defense gets over looked.

I think the only possible way the poster could say that is if he's hasn't watched a Leaf game in the last 2 years.
 
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hector morrison

Registered User
Apr 1, 2018
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IIRC the % of the unblocked shots provided in that heat graph was 14%, if you say on average each line gives up 8 shots per game (32 SOG per game), 14% above that would be 9.12, so that is one shot on average above other players.

The guys is truly unreal defensively, he might be our best all all around forward.
There really is a terrific work ethic from several forwards....JT has the nose to the grindstone whether he is scoring or not ,but Marner is the more visible player,often skating back and if not stealing then anticipating what will happen so he seems to be in a good position at most times. Not being an aggressive physical player he is more concerned with just getting possession. Entertaining to watch!
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,758
10,838
McDavid is one of the worst defensive forwards in the entire league. He's also (bar none/by far/absolutely/not close) the best offensive forward in the league, and overall the best player (ainec imo).

How do you figure that?
 

Morgs

#16 #34 #44 #88 #91
Jul 12, 2015
19,520
15,392
London, ON
How do you figure that?

18 worst defensive forwards this season based on xGA/60 RAPM, the stat EvolvingWild uses soley to create defensive GAR as it's in their opinion the best way to measure an individuals defensive ability.

McDavid ranks as the 3rd worst in the entire league lol.
 

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authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
25,758
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I watch a lot of other teams play...I'm not seeing a whole lot of forwards doing what Marner does. Hardly anyone back-checks like that kid! He doesn't quit,he gets the puck...not sure of the 'steals'numbers but i wouldn't be surprised if they were top ten.
There are many stats to use for arguments sake,but I prefer the eye test combined with when in the game players are at their best and who they play against. No stat is going to replace that!

He's actually 9th just ahead of Aho. The top 3 are Stone, Barkov and McDavid..
 

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