Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread 8.5 (Mod Warning OP)

[Harhis]

not considered that by you, you mean.

Oh sorry, concidered by anyone but Leafs fans.

 

[Liferleafer]

Question...does anyone enjoy sitting down to watch a good hockey game anymore? Y'all seem so consumed with crunching numbers that there can't be any enjoyment left for ya....

 

[Dekes For Days]

IF he played 82 games, he seems not be able to stay healthy for 82 games.

That wasn't what was said. And it still makes no sense, because you're ignoring the other provided factors in his production. If he did what was stated originally, he would be a better player, not an equal one.

There might be some reason he does not play more minutes? Maybe he can't handle physically more minutes and if he played more his quality of play would drop?

It has absolutely nothing to do with being able to physically handle it. Matthews has even said that he is willing and fully able to play more minutes. This is a combination of factors based on how Babcock operates. Babcock does not stack lines and never has. Babcock likes playing a grinder with his stars. Babcock currently has a team with great depth and multiple franchise players, and doesn't need to lean on any one particular line. These things hinder individual production, but they don't make the player any less important or valuable.

Matthews was also on the #2 PP for 2 years for no explainable reason, and then the #1 PP was finally stacked, but never given appropriate time. Leafs also get, by far, the fewest PPs in the league for no explainable reason, which also hinders individual production.

His raw production warrants no where near 11.6M a year.

His raw production without intentionally ignoring context does.

Edit. And that linemate excuse is just sad. Every Leafs fan is screaming they have deepest and best forward group in the league.

Offensively skilled, but young and spread out over the lineup.

And players you are comparing Matthews with have no problem producing with lesser players.

This is incorrect. If you take a look at the top of the point/PPG leaderboard, you will find that almost all players have a linemate up there with them, except Matthews. Matthews had the biggest separation in point pace from his closest line-mate in the league at 40 points, and the separation was even more significant when he signed.

The only player I can remember being in a similar type of situation is Crosby, but he at least got to play with veterans, and he got to play on a stacked #1 PP unit with the 2nd best forward in the history of the game, and then with the 3rd best player in the league, when PPs were handed out like candy.

 

[DomBarr]

If sprinters run 82 races, and a) Sprinter A averages the fastest sprint speed but misses 20 races, and b) Sprinter B finishes with the highest cumultive rank at the end of the season - which sprinter is faster?

Edit as I reread what you said:
and this is why stats should only be 1 tool in the tool box and can be totally misleading...there is not enough information in your example to tell you who is actually faster. As sprinter B could actually have the ten fastest times as such is truly the fastest and NOT have the fastest average .
Its why some players and teams are stat darlings but actually suck and some players and teams are statistically bad but are actually significantly better than what the stats say.

 

[Leaf Fans]

IF he played 82 games, he seems not be able to stay healthy for 82 games.

There might be some reason he does not play more minutes? Maybe he can't handle physically more minutes and if he played more his quality of play would drop?

Until those questions are answered he is overpaid. His raw production warrants no where near 11.6M a year.

Edit. And that linemate excuse is just sad. Every Leafs fan is screaming they have deepest and best forward group in the league. And players you are comparing Matthews with have no problem producing with lesser players.

He played 82 games as a rookie, but has had a rough time with injury the last two seasons though less than other players like McDavid and Crosby had on their elcs as someone pointed out earlier.
There might be a reason, but saying there might get a reason doesn't mean that it is your reason. That can only be answered by Babcock.
Sure, they warrent 11.6. that is the deal he negotiated, it is just that you don't think he warrents it.
The linemate excuse? What is that? We have one of the deepest forward groups in the league for sure. However, as this whole thread is about, we are looking to sign Marner. His contract in my opinion should be around 9.5 - he is an amazing player.

 

[Martin Skoula]

So you think Matthews p/60 numbers are high because of low minutes?

The truth is probably between his average 1C numbers playing heavy top competition and his top-3 numbers playing Babcock minutes. I'd also like to see him with legitimate 1st line wingers to get the secondary assists up. I don't know of any other 1C that plays with 2x 40 point players and puts up these numbers.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lol, did you just project a 5 game stretch over 82 games?

I am showing you that his time of signing was not significant, unless you are suggesting waiting until the end of the season, which would have been a stupid move. His pace didn't slow down anytime soon, and there was just as much if not more reason to believe his pace would increase.

If you think Matthew’s unsustainable start didnt get included in the negotiations, you’re wrong. Dubas should have negotiated pre-season and if Matthews didnt want that, then negotiate in the offseason. Don’t let the other side dictate the timing, have some balls!

Of course Matthews' production and pace at the time of signing was included in the negotiations. I have said this all along. Dubas could not have signed Matthews in the previous off-season without messing up other negotiations that would have resulted in a greater total cost for the 3. Waiting until after the season would have been the stupidest move; Matthews could have easily utilized his offer sheet leverage at that point, and Leafs would have been completely frozen and unable to make moves, which could have been team crippling.

Dubas did dictate the timing, and he made the correct call.

Other GMs are not stupid enough to give four firsts

Four 1st offer sheets have been given out in the past for far worse players. Matthews is a special level of player where he can give you that value. Also, Arizona is desperate and it would have been a once in a lifetime opportunity for them to get a star from Arizona. Montreal is also desperate for a #1C, has given out an offer sheet to a #1C, and approached another one, both worse than Matthews. Not to mention a bunch of other teams. It was a legitimate concern that couldn't be ignored.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

If sprinters run 82 races, and a) Sprinter A averages the fastest sprint speed but misses 20 races, and b) Sprinter B finishes with the highest cumultive rank at the end of the season - which sprinter is faster?

The NHL is a marathon not a sprint.

And if that same sprinter that missed 20 races only ran 80m instead of 100m and was fastest on meters/second basis would you be confident on saying he was the fastest one?

Sprinting is also an awful example because the difference is in the miliseconds. A 10k is better, its obvious that the best 10k times tend to be worse than the best 5k times when you use rates.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Oh sorry, concidered by anyone but Leafs fans.

I am not the authority on anything. I have my opinions just like you. Not everyone agrees with me.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I have already proven with a significant sample size that Matthew’s actual production does not go up in games where he played minutes to the level of McDavid. In fact, it goes down.

1. You have not proven this.
2. You would not have a significant enough sample size for it to mean anything.
3. You have not evaluated why Matthews is playing more minutes in certain games, yet you are using this tiny sample to make assumptions. Of course in any one season, Matthews is going to play more in games in which they are losing/having trouble scoring, and less in games in which they are winning. What you are measuring is more score effects.

Zeke however has provided a breakdown in the previous thread showing that for many players, as ice time increased, so did P/60. While part of this may be development, it is a better measure than you picking and choosing individual games from a season that meet your arbitrary threshold, and ignoring all context. Fact remains that there is no evidence that P/60 decreases with increased TOI, at least within normal ranges of ice time.

 

[Liferleafer]

The NHL is a marathon not a sprint.


Sprinting is also an awful example because the difference is in the miliseconds. A 10k is better, its obvious that the best 10k times tend to be worse than the best 5k times when you use rates.

We back to mortgages and loans again?

 

[Notsince67]

These pace/per 60 arguments don't just prop up Toronto's 1st overall pick. They prop up their entire team.

Over the past 3 regular seasons, Toronto has scored at a rate of 2.79 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes. Not only is that the highest 5-on-5 scoring rate over the past 3 regular seasons; it is the highest 5-on-5 scoring rate of any team over a 3-year regular season sample between 2007-2008 and now. Therefore, the G/60 and P/60 of Maple Leafs players over this time frame is generally going to be very high, and thus these statistics will generally favor Maple Leafs players in debates.

However, over the past 3 years, Toronto has also not won one single playoff series. This information alone tells us that regular season 5-on-5 scoring rates are clearly not the be all end all of team or player evaluation when the evaluation is conducted for the sake of determining the level of contributions that said team or player make towards the ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup.

I can not say for certain what arguments or metrics anybody would be using in a different situation. But I believe that if the Toronto Maple Leafs were 1st in regulation/overtime wins over the past 3 seasons, and were only 15th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes, we would see their fan base more frequently use metrics such as goals above replacement that correlate with regular season wins, and we would see their fan base less frequently use the metric (5-on-5 points per 60 minutes) that directly correlates with what their team is best at.

As it pertains to this thread - Mitchell Marner is 15th in 5-on-5 points per 60 since he entered the NHL, and was 4th this season. But he is absolutely not the 15th best forward since he entered the league, nor was he the 4th best forward last season. I think a rating like that which Evolving Hockey's Goals Above Replacement model gives him: 22nd best forward since he entered the NHL, 13th best last season is still a bit too high, but much more in line with how he deserves to be paid. His 5-on-5 scoring rate is impressive, but one can't ignore that he is in a position that is extremely favorable for scoring at a high rate in 5-on-5 situations.

You are mixing a bunch of stuff up to make a pretty useless point. Regardless of where you rank Marner as far as best forwards (you might be eating a bit of crow next year), it is hard to imagine that within 3-4 years that Marner won't be among the few best in the league. He just turned 22. What he gets paid will also be a function of where the leafs think he will perform. Marner has already taken a long term contract off the table because he knows they can't afford him, and he is probably right.

 

[zeke]

These pace/per 60 arguments don't just prop up Toronto's 1st overall pick. They prop up their entire team.

Over the past 3 regular seasons, Toronto has scored at a rate of 2.79 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes. Not only is that the highest 5-on-5 scoring rate over the past 3 regular seasons; it is the highest 5-on-5 scoring rate of any team over a 3-year regular season sample between 2007-2008 and now. Therefore, the G/60 and P/60 of Maple Leafs players over this time frame is generally going to be very high, and thus these statistics will generally favor Maple Leafs players in debates.

However, over the past 3 years, Toronto has also not won one single playoff series. This information alone tells us that regular season 5-on-5 scoring rates are clearly not the be all end all of team or player evaluation when the evaluation is conducted for the sake of determining the level of contributions that said team or player make towards the ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup.

I can not say for certain what arguments or metrics anybody would be using in a different situation. But I believe that if the Toronto Maple Leafs were 1st in regulation/overtime wins over the past 3 seasons, and were only 15th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes, we would see their fan base more frequently use metrics such as goals above replacement that correlate with regular season wins, and we would see their fan base less frequently use the metric (5-on-5 points per 60 minutes) that directly correlates with what their team is best at.

As it pertains to this thread - Mitchell Marner is 15th in 5-on-5 points per 60 since he entered the NHL, and was 4th this season. But he is absolutely not the 15th best forward since he entered the league, nor was he the 4th best forward last season. I think a rating like that which Evolving Hockey's Goals Above Replacement model gives him: 22nd best forward since he entered the NHL, 13th best last season is still a bit too high, but much more in line with how he deserves to be paid. His 5-on-5 scoring rate is impressive, but one can't ignore that he is in a position that is extremely favorable for scoring at a high rate in 5-on-5 situations.

What a bizarre leafs-hating rant.

Are you actually trying to use the Leafs' being one of the best offensive teams in the league as a CRITICISM?

that is hilarious.


anyways, the real stats:


Last 3 yrs:

Team Even Strengths goals per 60 minutes:

1.TBL 2.84
2.TOR 2.82
3.WSH 2.78
4.PIT 2.75
5.VGK 2.70 (only 2 seasons)

Team Power Play goals per 60 minutes:

1.TBL 9.35
2.PIT 9.07
3.BOS 8.78
4.TOR 8.57
5.WSH 8.06

Team Even Strength goals against per 60 minutes:

1.BOS 2.14
5.WSH 2.21
17.SJS 2.48
18.TOR 2.49
19.EDM 2.50

Team Penalty Kill goals against per 60 minutes:

1.BOS 6.03
5.TOR 6.34
11.WSH 6.71


TeamEven Strength Goals For percentage:

1.WSH 55.7
5.BOS 53.3
6.TOR 53.2


Team Regular Season Wins

1.TBL 158
2.WSH 152
3.BOS 143
9.TOR 135

Team Regular Season Regulation Wins

1.WSH 143
2.TBL 142
3.BOS 136
9.TOR 127

Team Playoffs Wins

1.WSH 26
3.BOS 22
14.TOR 8




I guess you can criticize the young leafs for only taking 2 elite veteran playoffs teams to the limit, if you like.

 

[zeke]

And if that same sprinter that missed 20 races only ran 80m instead of 100m and was fastest on meters/second basis would you be confident on saying he was the fastest one?

You realize that Matthews has had more ES minutes per game than most of the other top p60 guys, right?

 

[zeke]

Oh sorry, concidered by anyone but Leafs fans.

This is the funny part.

The professional hockey world thinks Matthews is super duper elite.

The hockey analytics world thinks Matthews is super duper elite.

Non-leafs fans on HF boards get super angry at both rating him so highly and call Matthews the most overrated player in the league.

And you really want to believe it's us leafs fans that are the biased ones.

 

[zeke]

The NHL is a marathon not a sprint.

Sprinting is also an awful example because the difference is in the miliseconds. A 10k is better, its obvious that the best 10k times tend to be worse than the best 5k times when you use rates.

A series of races is clearly a better example to compare to a hockey season than one race is. That's obvious.

 

[zeke]

Edit as I reread what you said:
and this is why stats should only be 1 tool in the tool box and can be totally misleading...there is not enough information in your example to tell you who is actually faster. As sprinter B could actually have the ten fastest times as such is truly the fastest and NOT have the fastest average .
Its why some players and teams are stat darlings but actually suck and some players and teams are statistically bad but are actually significantly better than what the stats say.

In this case, we have a player in Matthews who is loved as super elite by the professional hockey world, by the hockey analytics world, and turned his sadsack team into a contender almost instantly.

Literally the only people who don't appreciate Matthews are a bunch of bitter leaf haters on an internet message board.

 

[Notsince67]

Not only do I not believe your interpretation of past events, but it doesn't change anything I said. Hockey stats and understanding of them have also come a long way in a short period of time. Stajan and White haven't been Leafs for 10 years.

Yes, stats can be used in misleading ways, as we have seen by a certain Sharks fan in this thread, but that doesn't make the stat itself wrong, and even if somebody was doing that, the methods and numbers are out there for everybody to see. You can challenge those stats with additional context and a counterargument. You can't do that with an eye test. It's just flawed personal feelings.

Nobody has challenged Zeke's methodology with any justifiable or supportable argument. They just dismiss it because it doesn't fit their preconceived ideas.

So why isn't Martin Marincin on the top defensive pair? Let's not be blinded by the eye test

 

[Liferleafer]

In this case, we have a player in Matthews who is loved as super elite by the professional hockey world, by the hockey analytics world, and turned his sadsack team into a contender almost instantly.

Literally the only people who don't appreciate Matthews are a bunch of bitter leaf haters on an internet message board.

Now here is a stat i totally agree with!

 

[Liferleafer]

So why isn't Martin Marincin on the top defensive pair? Let's not be blinded by the eye test

This one's easy, it's because he sucks at the game of hockey.

 

[Notsince67]

This one's easy, it's because he sucks at the game of hockey.

Agreed but in the game of advanced stats, he looks pretty damn good.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Agreed but in the game of advanced stats, he looks pretty damn good.

He drives play against 4th line scrubs in sheltered minutes, that's what his stats show. What do you think they show?

 

[Dekes For Days]

So why isn't Martin Marincin on the top defensive pair?

What are you even talking about...?

 

[Notsince67]

He drives play against 4th line scrubs in sheltered minutes, that's what his stats show. What do you think they show?

I know what people used to think they showed and the argument of a failed eye test was also used.
Why Martin Marincin could be a top pair defenceman for the Leafs - Sportsnet.ca

 

[Notsince67]

What are you even talking about...?

Why Martin Marincin could be a top pair defenceman for the Leafs - Sportsnet.ca