Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread 8.5 (Mod Warning OP)

[Hunter368]

This is a Marner thread, stay on subject, no trolling/flaming. Not hard rules to follow here people, if you can't stay on topic you will be removed from the thread.

Click to read more...

 

[zeke]

your threadly reminder of the amazing job Dubey has done with the leafs' cap situation:

By the numbers: Grading every team's contract efficiency

By the numbers: Grading every team’s contract efficiency

Today, we rank (almost) every contract on every team in the league based on the same methodology in an attempt to figure out which teams are the most efficient with the money they spend.

The contracts included in the exercise are every healthy, non-ELC skater that my model has a projection for, as well as any dead money a team has on their cap via buyouts, salary retention and cap recapture penalties. That means no RFAs without a deal, no players on an entry-level deal, no players without a significant NHL sample, no players on LTIR and no goalies. My model doesn’t currently spit out future win projections for goaltenders or expected contract value either, so they were unfortunately omitted. Unused cap space is also not considered as there’s no knowing how that space would be used. This is about the value of each contract currently on the books.

Teams will be graded empirically based on the surplus value they bring in per player contract (all dead money counts as one) as well as the average probability those deals will provide positive value. Both are based on a player’s age-adjusted projected win output according to GSVA and the uncertainty in that projection for future seasons, along with the cost of a win on the open market. How much each team spends to obtain those wins will also be graded.

What’s being assessed is the future value of the remainder of each contract, meaning what a player has already done holds no merit here. Future value means age is crucial in terms of grading each contract, with players peaking between the ages of 22-26 and declining afterward.

Surplus value will depend on term, where more seasons give more opportunity to compound value. Positive value probability depends on the certainty of a player’s projection which depends on how much variance there has been in the player’s past numbers. Longer term means that uncertainty increases.

Each contract will be graded based on where their combined surplus value and positive value probability fall on the following percentile scale. All contract and roster data is as of July 15.

#3 - Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto ranking so high may come as a surprise, but that’s mostly because the local media juggernaut tends to blow everything out of proportion in the centre of the hockey universe.

The Auston Matthews deal looks pricey compared to McDavid’s, but that’s an unfair bar to be compared to as both players will be vastly underpaid for their services given their current projected value and trajectory. Matthews is one of the most efficient players in hockey and projects to be the league’s second most valuable player during the life of his contract. The William Nylander deal is far from a problem – assuming he can bounce back with a proper training camp. Signing John Tavares, an obviously elite player, to a very fair deal is not the reason the team has cap issues. The grass is always greener on the other side. Spending to the cap is what contenders have to do.

What the Leafs have going for them is their youth. They’re one of the youngest teams in the league and their core will only get better, meaning surplus value only grows in the coming seasons. The chance that they provide positive value collectively as a result is high. The average 65 percent rate is the second-highest in the league behind Carolina. That they have five forwards locked into positive value deals for four more seasons is a big plus, as is having Rielly on one of the league’s best contracts for three. Those deals will only look better going forward.

The team wouldn’t be here though without the efforts of the front office this summer, clearing most of the team’s bad money off the books in dropping Patrick Marleau and exchanging seven years of a terrible defenceman for one. The Leafs are one of six teams in the league without a contract in the D-range and should see 83 percent of their deals provide positive value. That’s the second-highest in the league. They also saved space where necessary by downgrading on Kadri, but gaining a capable right shot defenceman on a cheap deal, as well as allocating fourth-line resources to league minimum veterans rather than an expensive Connor Brown.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

What is Marc Bergevin waiting on?

 

[ottawa]

What is Marc Bergevin waiting on?

We don't have enough cap space.

I believe we're sitting at around 4m and that's not including performance bonuses

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

your threadly reminder of the amazing job Dubey has done with the leafs' cap situation:

By the numbers: Grading every team's contract efficiency

The same author has stated that Mitch Marner deserves $11.634M.



Since, according to you, the Leafs are doing what you and this guy say they should, does that mean Marner will get $11.634M?

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Trade Marner, Ceci and Petan to Jackets for Jones and Bjorkstand. Resign Reilly in a year or two to 8.5Million and voila, the window is there again to be a contenda!!!

 

[Sundinisagod]

What is Marc Bergevin waiting on?

Marner's signature.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Trade Marner, Ceci and Petan to Jackets for Jones and Bjorkstand. Resign Reilly in a year or two to 8.5Million and voila, the window is there again to be a contenda!!!

Why does Columbus do this?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Marner's signature.

I think he should sign the Leafs offer then. If he is not signing any offer sheets than the whole threat is hollow.

 

[zeke]

The same author has stated that Mitch Marner deserves $11.634M.



Since, according to you, the Leafs are doing what you and this guy say they should, does that mean Marner will get $11.634M?

as he notes in that article, the top players just don't get what their actual value is. McDavid is underpaid. Matthews is underpaid. Marner will be similarly underpaid at around $10m, but paid fairly according to his comparables.

 

[Djp]

8.5?? Are we fearful of a cats 9 lives?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Either sign an offer sheet, sign the Leafs offer, or sit out the start of the season risking whatever happened to Nylander happening to him or worse.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think he should sign the Leafs offer then. If he is not signing any offer sheets than the whole threat is hollow.

Pretty sure once you sign an offer sheet it's binding. And chances are the offer sheets aren't any higher than what the Leafs are offering, meaning it makes no sense for him to sign for less than he thinks he's worth elsewhere and not with the Leafs.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Pretty sure once you sign an offer sheet it's binding. And chances are the offer sheets aren't any higher than what the Leafs are offering, meaning it makes no sense for him to sign for less than he thinks he's worth elsewhere and not with the Leafs.

So sign the Leafs offer then or sit. There is nothing better coming.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

as he notes in that article, the top players just don't get what their actual value is. McDavid is underpaid. Matthews is underpaid. Marner will be similarly underpaid at around $10m, but paid fairly according to his comparables.

On a 5-year term, I don't think $10M is fair for Marner according to his comparables. That's 11% more than Patrick Kane was paid after his ELC and 18% more than Sebastian Aho just got.

 

[zeke]

On a 5-year term, I don't think $10M is fair for Marner according to his comparables. That's 11% more than Patrick Kane was paid after his ELC and 18% more than Sebastian Aho just got.

true I think $~9.5 is probably more fair, but i'm ok with a <$1m overpay.

From where I sit Aho is not actually a comparable for Marner, though.

 

[stepdad gaary]

lmao at thinking he'll get 9.5

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Like I've said the past few threads.

6 years @ 10-10.5/year

Or

2/3 years @ 8.5-9/year

 

[Isaac Nootin]

your threadly reminder of the amazing job Dubey has done with the leafs' cap situation:

By the numbers: Grading every team's contract efficiency

Dubas really has done a masterful job navigating the Leafs cap issues, especially considering the mess Lou left him to clean up.

One more big contract to get signed (Marner, obviously) and then it's full steam ahead. Judging on his past results, I have full faith it will get done and fit into the Leafs structure.

 

[SotasicA]

So sign the Leafs offer then or sit. There is nothing better coming.

Except there is, as proven by Nylander. Just wait a few months and Dubas will give in. Nylander got exactly what he wanted all along, plus a nice long vacation.

 

[Sojourn]

The same author has stated that Mitch Marner deserves $11.634M.



Since, according to you, the Leafs are doing what you and this guy say they should, does that mean Marner will get $11.634M?

If someone wants to say Matthews deserves that, I do have to ask why Marner doesn't. I don't like that contract for Matthews, as I think he gets paid too much for too few UFA years, but that is a different discussion and only relevant in the sense that Matthews is getting that. So why doesn't Marner also deserve it? He just put up 94 points. Those were the best total numbers on Toronto. He just straight up lead them offensively.

Aho's contract makes more sense to me, and I think they are comparable. Marner has an edge, but I don't think it's a tremendous one. And if Marner's agent couldn't point directly at Nylander and Matthews' contract, I think Aho's would be a good argument for Toronto. Unfortunately for them, they offered low UFA year term contracts for quite a bit of cash for a worse Nylander, and a not that much better Matthews. With Marner having a better year than Matthews, and Nylander putting up a 41-point pace, I think it's pretty clear Marner should be up around Matthews money, if those are the contracts the GM is handing out.

 

[Viqsi]

Trade Marner, Ceci and Petan to Jackets for Jones

Stop right there. You mentioned Jones in a trade. Therefore your proposal is a failure. Jones will not be traded.

 

[Sojourn]

Stop right there. You mentioned Jones in a trade. Therefore your proposal is a failure. Jones will not be traded.

Yeah, I feel like there is no realistic add to make that work. Jones is the future(and the present).

 

[Sojourn]

So sign the Leafs offer then or sit. There is nothing better coming.

Didn't you just go through that with Nylander? He got $7 million, for 5 years, after two 61 point season on one of the best offensive teams in the league. From him perspective, I think he is probably happy with the result. Dubas might be managing things in the short-term, but he's setting himself up for a tough time in the long.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

If someone wants to say Matthews deserves that, I do have to ask why Marner doesn't. I don't like that contract for Matthews, as I think he gets paid too much for too few UFA years, but that is a different discussion and only relevant in the sense that Matthews is getting that. So why doesn't Marner also deserve it? He just put up 94 points. Those were the best total numbers on Toronto.

Aho's contract makes more sense to me, and I think they are comparable. Marner has an edge, but I don't think it's a tremendous one. And if Marner's agent couldn't point directly at Nylander and Matthews' contract, I think Aho's would be a good argument for Toronto. Unfortunately for them, they offered low UFA year term contracts for quite a bit of cash for a worse Nylander, and a not that much better Matthews. With Marner having a better year than Matthews, and Nylander putting up a 41-point pace, I think it's pretty clear Marner should be up around Matthews money, if those are the contracts the GM is handing out.

The thing is, that author isn’t actually saying that they deserve that kind of money or that their market value is in line with that. The author is saying that their expected value over the course of their future contracts, based on aging curves and the value that they’ve provided this year, is in line with X amount of money.

In this case, if Marner signed for $11.634M, the general public would call it a pretty severe overpayment. But Dom Luszczyszyn’s contract evaluation charts (which literally don’t take into account the increased value of UFA years in comparison to RFA years) would tell us that is a fair contract.