Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread 8.5 (Mod Warning OP)

[Dekes For Days]

Over the past 3 regular seasons, Toronto has scored at a rate of 2.79 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes. Not only is that the highest 5-on-5 scoring rate over the past 3 regular seasons; it is the highest 5-on-5 scoring rate of any team over a 3-year regular season sample between 2007-2008 and now.

Over the past 3 seasons, 5v5 scoring rates have risen across the league to levels not seen in a long time, so your statement about them being the highest since 2007-2008 is incredibly disingenuous.
Over the past 2 seasons, Tampa leads in 5v5 scoring rates, and the only reason they don't lead over 3 years, is 3 years ago, they had countless injuries and lost their best goal-scorer in Stamkos for 65 games, so that statement was also incredibly misleading.
Over the past 3 years, the teams at the very top of the 5v5 scoring rate board include offensively-minded teams that feature multiple elite players like Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Washington, so it is no surprise that Toronto is there when they have one of the best collections of elite talent in the league.

Therefore, the G/60 and P/60 of Maple Leafs players over this time frame is generally going to be very high, and thus these statistics will generally favor Maple Leafs players in debates.

You incorrectly assume that these numbers inflate the Leaf's numbers, with zero evidence, despite reality being that the Leaf's numbers inflate those totals. You just can't seem to accept in your mind that the Leafs have some of the most offensively gifted forwards in the world, and significant depth, and so you manufacture ways to downplay them, while still demanding that they be paid more than you say they are worth.

However, over the past 3 years, Toronto has also not won one single playoff series.

Entirely irrelevant.

This information alone tells us that regular season 5-on-5 scoring rates are clearly not the be all end all of team or player evaluation when the evaluation is conducted for the sake of determining the level of contributions that said team or player make towards the ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup.

That doesn't tell you that at all. No one statistic is the determining factor for who wins the Stanley Cup. That is beyond ridiculous.

All it tells you is that despite putting up long, highly competitive series against the 1st, 4th, and 3rd best teams in the league in the first 3 years of many of their player's careers through countless injuries/suspensions, they ended with the expected result.

 

[Dekes For Days]

No, IF he did that he would be considered as good.

If he puts up equal points in fewer games, with less PP minutes, and worse linemates, he would be considered an equal player?

How does that make any sense?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Stats were once used by a certain someone around here to "prove" that Ian White was a #1 defenceman, Matt Stajan a #1 centre, and Tyler Bozak being better than Patrice Bergeron, etc. etc.

So yes, a lot can go wrong with the use of stats whether it's the actual stat itself or the individual using them.

There's nothing iron-clad about hockey stats, especially the one's available for public consumption.

Not only do I not believe your interpretation of past events, but it doesn't change anything I said. Hockey stats and understanding of them have also come a long way in a short period of time. Stajan and White haven't been Leafs for 10 years.

Yes, stats can be used in misleading ways, as we have seen by a certain Sharks fan in this thread, but that doesn't make the stat itself wrong, and even if somebody was doing that, the methods and numbers are out there for everybody to see. You can challenge those stats with additional context and a counterargument. You can't do that with an eye test. It's just flawed personal feelings.

Nobody has challenged Zeke's methodology with any justifiable or supportable argument. They just dismiss it because it doesn't fit their preconceived ideas.

 

[Harhis]

If he puts up equal points in fewer games, with less PP minutes, and worse linemates, he would be considered an equal player?

How does that make any sense?

IF he played 82 games, he seems not be able to stay healthy for 82 games.

There might be some reason he does not play more minutes? Maybe he can't handle physically more minutes and if he played more his quality of play would drop?

Until those questions are answered he is overpaid. His raw production warrants no where near 11.6M a year.

Edit. And that linemate excuse is just sad. Every Leafs fan is screaming they have deepest and best forward group in the league. And players you are comparing Matthews with have no problem producing with lesser players.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

That 50 goal, 100 point pace was actually after he had slowed down. In the 10 games following his signing, he had a 57 goal, 98 point pace. In the 5 games following his signing, he had a 66 goal, 115 point pace. He was no longer playing with Ennis, Nylander had come back and was starting to get back to his usual pace, and rookie Kapanen and Johnsson were getting more comfortable in the NHL. There was just as much reason to think his pace would go up. Easy to play captain hindsight now. Also, the closer he got to July 1st, the more likely he was to use that leverage, which could have destroyed the Leafs.

Teams would have easily given up four 1st round picks for Matthews. Easily.

Locking up Matthews for 10.5m would have been great, but that was never going to happen. We live in the real world. Also, Marner wasn't signing during the season, so signing them both at the same time wasn't an option.

Lol, did you just project a 5 game stretch over 82 games? The guy finished the season with 1 point in 4 games, that is a 20 point pace.

If you think Matthew’s unsustainable start didnt get included in the negotiations, you’re wrong. Matthew’s agent played Dubas like a puppet. Dubas should have negotiated pre-season and if Matthews didnt want that, then negotiate in the offseason. Don’t let the other side dictate the timing, have some balls!

Other GMs are not stupid enough to give four firsts, they’ve learned their lesson from past mistakes. The money and picks is too much for one player in a league where you ice 20. Its a franchise destroying move in the capworld.

 

[X66]

Lol, did you just project a 5 game stretch over 82 games? The guy finished the season with 1 point in 4 games, that is a 20 point pace.

If you think Matthew’s unsustainable start didnt get included in the negotiations, you’re wrong. Matthew’s agent played Dubas like a puppet. Dubas should have negotiated pre-season and if Matthews didnt want that, then negotiate in the offseason. Don’t let the other side dictate the timing, have some balls!

Other GMs are not stupid enough to give four firsts, they’ve learned their lesson from past mistakes. The money and picks is too much for one player in a league where you ice 20. Its a franchise destroying move in the capworld.

The problem is that you don't understand the NHL or the current market.

So until you understand both of those, you're not going to get what people are talking about.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Not only do I not believe your interpretation of past events, but it doesn't change anything I said. Hockey stats and understanding of them have also come a long way in a short period of time. Stajan and White haven't been Leafs for 10 years.

Yes, stats can be used in misleading ways, as we have seen by a certain Sharks fan in this thread, but that doesn't make the stat itself wrong, and even if somebody was doing that, the methods and numbers are out there for everybody to see. You can challenge those stats with additional context and a counterargument. You can't do that with an eye test. It's just flawed personal feelings.

Nobody has challenged Zeke's methodology with any justifiable or supportable argument. They just dismiss it because it doesn't fit their preconceived ideas.

I have already proven with a significant sample size that Matthew’s actual production does not go up in games where he played minutes to the level of McDavid. In fact, it goes down. His point/60 goes down as his minutes increase past 20 mins

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

To be fair I don’t think he was trying to be insulting with the “beloved saviour” comment. I don’t think it’s entirely inaccurate either. Even many leaf fans point to where the organization was before him and how he was a major part if not the biggest part of bringing them back to the playoffs after so long

Yes he was. It's backhanded compliment sarcasm.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

The problem is that you don't understand the NHL or the current market.

So until you understand both of those, you're not going to get what people are talking about.

Leaf fan hyping their own players is not representative of the current market.

 

[X66]

Leaf fan hyping their own players is not representative of the current market.

Again, you just don't get it lol.

If you want know I can explain it, if not, stop wasting everyone's time.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I have already proven with a significant sample size that Matthew’s actual production does not go up in games where he played minutes to the level of McDavid. In fact, it goes down. His point/60 goes down as his minutes increase past 20 mins

It's almost like games where Matthews scores a lot, we don't need to play him much because we're winning. Meanwhile in games where we have trouble scoring, we play him more to catch up.

But no, he's definitely less likely to score if he plays 20 minutes instead of 16. In fact, if he scores by 16 and Babcock keeps him out for 20, they actually disqualify the goal retroactively.

 

[Harhis]

It's almost like games where Matthews scores a lot, we don't need to play him much because we're winning. Meanwhile in games where we have trouble scoring, we play him more to catch up.

But no, he's definitely less likely to score if he plays 20 minutes instead of 16. In fact, if he scores by 16 and Babcock keeps him out for 20, they actually disqualify the goal retroactively.

And that only applies to Matthews?

 

[Liferleafer]

Leaf fan hyping their own players is not representative of the current market.

Nor is your clear lack of knowledge regarding Leafs players or the current market....yet you just keep plugging away......

 

[Liferleafer]

Lol, did you just project a 5 game stretch over 82 games? The guy finished the season with 1 point in 4 games, that is a 20 point pace.

If you think Matthew’s unsustainable start didnt get included in the negotiations, you’re wrong. Matthew’s agent played Dubas like a puppet. Dubas should have negotiated pre-season and if Matthews didnt want that, then negotiate in the offseason. Don’t let the other side dictate the timing, have some balls!

Other GMs are not stupid enough to give four firsts, they’ve learned their lesson from past mistakes. The money and picks is too much for one player in a league where you ice 20. Its a franchise destroying move in the capworld.

Such laughable BS.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

It's almost like games where Matthews scores a lot, we don't need to play him much because we're winning. Meanwhile in games where we have trouble scoring, we play him more to catch up.

But no, he's definitely less likely to score if he plays 20 minutes instead of 16. In fact, if he scores by 16 and Babcock keeps him out for 20, they actually disqualify the goal retroactively.

Some players tend to contribute in the comebacks in those heavier minutes which increases their actual point production but deflates their p/60 rates. Matthews doesn't actually contribute more in those heavier minutes, so his p/60 would start to decline while his actual point totals don't increase (or on the same magnitude).

 

[Liferleafer]

Lol, did you just project a 5 game stretch over 82 games? The guy finished the season with 1 point in 4 games, that is a 20 point pace.

If you think Matthew’s unsustainable start didnt get included in the negotiations, you’re wrong. Matthew’s agent played Dubas like a puppet. Dubas should have negotiated pre-season and if Matthews didnt want that, then negotiate in the offseason. Don’t let the other side dictate the timing, have some balls!

Other GMs are not stupid enough to give four firsts, they’ve learned their lesson from past mistakes. The money and picks is too much for one player in a league where you ice 20. Its a franchise destroying move in the capworld.

Such laughable BS.

 

[Liferleafer]

Some players tend to contribute in the comebacks in those heavier minutes which increases their actual point production but deflates their p/60 rates. Matthews doesn't actually contribute more in those heavier minutes, so his p/60 would start to decline while his actual point totals don't increase (or on the same magnitude).

Your player sucks because his P/60 rate isn't good!!

We talking hockey or mortgages?

 

[Martin Skoula]

And that only applies to Matthews?

No, most, if not all, offensive players have much higher production rates if you filter by games where they play very low minutes. There are probably exceptions if they're also shutdown guys like Marchand/Bergeron, but again they're exceptions.

 

[zeke]

Well according to Leaf fans Matthews only need to have more ice time to be McDavid level. So why are leaf fans not coaching instead of Babcock.

Babcock's job is not to maximize Auston Matthews' point totals.

 

[Harhis]

No, most, if not all, offensive players have much higher production rates if you filter by games where they play very low minutes. There are probably exceptions if they're also shutdown guys like Marchand/Bergeron, but again they're exceptions.

So you think Matthews p/60 numbers are high because of low minutes?

 

[zeke]

Interesting.

During a marathon, the higher miles per hour runner only wins the race if he finishes the race. Does he get a trophy in the end for having a fast miles per hour during the first 1/4 of the race? No, because he ran out of gas because he overexerted himself. The reality is that he lost the race and finished in the 40s. Thats the reality.

If sprinters run 82 races, and a) Sprinter A averages the fastest sprint speed but misses 20 races, and b) Sprinter B finishes with the highest cumultive rank at the end of the season - which sprinter is faster?

 

[zeke]

Leafs fans are by far the biggest proponents of “on pace” on this website. Don’t be surprised.

Disclaimer- I am not insulting a fanbase. I am saying that the biggest nhl fanbase on earth has latched on to a certain concept because it is super relevant to their beloved savior 1st overall drafted player and totally props him up.

HF is now convincing themselves that the entire field of hockey analytics was devised 10+yrs ago in order to defend Dubas' contract decisions this year.

 

[X66]

Some players tend to contribute in the comebacks in those heavier minutes which increases their actual point production but deflates their p/60 rates. Matthews doesn't actually contribute more in those heavier minutes, so his p/60 would start to decline while his actual point totals don't increase (or on the same magnitude).

Depends on the minutes though, extra PP time can go a long way for players, look at Rantanen and MacKinnon, they're not on Matthews level at even strength, but they make up for it on the PP.

 

[zeke]

No, IF he did that he would be considered as good. But the point is, he has not done that. He has not shown he does produce like those guys IF he played more minutes or IF he played 82 games. You could argue his p/60 would stay same with more minutes but he has not shown that yet. Until he does he is not considered as same level as players who HAVE already done that.

not considered that by you, you mean.

 

[Harhis]

If sprinters run 82 races, and a) Sprinter A averages the fastest sprint speed but misses 20 races, and b) Sprinter B finishes with the highest cumultive rank at the end of the season - which sprinter is faster?

And if that same sprinter that missed 20 races only ran 80m instead of 100m and was fastest on meters/second basis would you be confident on saying he was the fastest one?