GirardSpinorama
Registered User
- Aug 20, 2004
- 21,198
- 9,913
Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread 8.5 (Mod Warning OP)
- Thread starter Hunter368
- Start date
- Status
- Feb 24, 2017
- 5,094
- 2,865
Leafs fans are by far the biggest proponents of “on pace” on this website. Don’t be surprised.
Disclaimer- I am not insulting a fanbase. I am saying that the biggest nhl fanbase on earth has latched on to a certain concept because it is super relevant to their beloved savior 1st overall drafted player and totally props him up.
Leaf Fans
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
- 20,103
- 8,586
There has been no authentication of any mistakes that may or may not have been made by our GM to be blind to.
Leaf Fans
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
- 20,103
- 8,586
Every fan base supports pace when it enhances their argument, not just Leaf fans.
- Feb 24, 2017
- 5,094
- 2,865
Look at my disclaimer. It’s so much louder coming from leafs fans because of the size of the fan base. Because of that fanbase size comes more complete fanatics who amplify it even louder than you could even imagine.
Leaf Fans
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
- 20,103
- 8,586
No, IF he did that he would be considered as good. But the point is, he has not done that. He has not shown he does produce like those guys IF he played more minutes or IF he played 82 games. You could argue his p/60 would stay same with more minutes but he has not shown that yet. Until he does he is not considered as same level as players who HAVE already done that.
TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
These pace/per 60 arguments don't just prop up Toronto's 1st overall pick. They prop up their entire team.
Over the past 3 regular seasons, Toronto has scored at a rate of 2.79 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes. Not only is that the highest 5-on-5 scoring rate over the past 3 regular seasons; it is the highest 5-on-5 scoring rate of any team over a 3-year regular season sample between 2007-2008 and now. Therefore, the G/60 and P/60 of Maple Leafs players over this time frame is generally going to be very high, and thus these statistics will generally favor Maple Leafs players in debates.
However, over the past 3 years, Toronto has also not won one single playoff series. This information alone tells us that regular season 5-on-5 scoring rates are clearly not the be all end all of team or player evaluation when the evaluation is conducted for the sake of determining the level of contributions that said team or player make towards the ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup.
I can not say for certain what arguments or metrics anybody would be using in a different situation. But I believe that if the Toronto Maple Leafs were 1st in regulation/overtime wins over the past 3 seasons, and were only 15th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes, we would see their fan base more frequently use metrics such as goals above replacement that correlate with regular season wins, and we would see their fan base less frequently use the metric (5-on-5 points per 60 minutes) that directly correlates with what their team is best at.
As it pertains to this thread - Mitchell Marner is 15th in 5-on-5 points per 60 since he entered the NHL, and was 4th this season. But he is absolutely not the 15th best forward since he entered the league, nor was he the 4th best forward last season. I think a rating like that which Evolving Hockey's Goals Above Replacement model gives him: 22nd best forward since he entered the NHL, 13th best last season is still a bit too high, but much more in line with how he deserves to be paid. His 5-on-5 scoring rate is impressive, but one can't ignore that he is in a position that is extremely favorable for scoring at a high rate in 5-on-5 situations.
Ah not every fan but it's pretty common . Just like how goals should be worth 2x assists when it supports their favorite players.
Imma use ovie as the biggest example of people bringing up that one to inflate their guy .
Rants Mulliniks
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2008
- 23,071
- 6,136
If you weren't "insulting a fanbase", you probably wouldn't use words that generalize or say things like "beloved savior". At least try to be honest.
Rants Mulliniks
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2008
- 23,071
- 6,136
Maybe it tells you they are extremely gifted offensively but Babcock spreads his minutes and that they get very little PP time to possibly inflate their raw totals? Maybe it also tells you much of their core is 22 and under and are the only team in the league to face three 107+ point teams in the first round (two other teams have faced two such teams)?
To be fair I don’t think he was trying to be insulting with the “beloved saviour” comment. I don’t think it’s entirely inaccurate either. Even many leaf fans point to where the organization was before him and how he was a major part if not the biggest part of bringing them back to the playoffs after so long
Hahaha! Try again man. Typical...I am going to insult a fanbase but it makes it ok if I say I am not insulting them first. Hahahaha!
Who knows, try to figure it out then you can figure out what an ovie is.
Anyways people always try to pick and choose stats that favour their arguments. Its not new.
Spargon
Registered User
- May 31, 2019
- 980
- 1,623
Eye tests are inherently flawed. Not only have eyes/memory been proven to be unreliable and subject to bias, and not only do casual fans generally have no idea what to look for, but even if they did, they don't have the ability to watch all 6 of their team's players on the ice at the same time, let alone all 12 individuals on the ice at the same time, let alone all 12 individuals on the ice in all games at the same time. Everybody watches different players doing different things at different times and understands what they see in different ways to draw different conclusions. The end result is an entirely qualitative measure that is 100% based on personal feelings, and there is no way to verify the reliability, truthfulness, or consistency of the methods they use. There is no information learned other than how that one individual feels, which makes it useless for the purposes of discussion. It also makes it useless for the purposes of determining contract value.
There is no inherent bias in stats. They can't be wrong. They are just numbers that show what happened on the ice. The only place bias can enter is in how they are used or interpreted, but they can be checked by outside sources, challenged, discussed, and improved. The methods are out there for everybody to see, the numbers are verified, and it promotes discussion. Context can be accounted for properly, and more context has been added repeatedly by Zeke, myself, and others posting stats to try and get a clearer picture.
The problem here is not people disagreeing with how to best utilize the stats and what context to add to get the clearest picture. The problem here is people outright dismissing the stats and relying on their own feelings over any useful quantitative measure because it doesn't match with their preconceived ideas.
If a team isn't sending four 1st round picks, it will be matched.
Yes, they do know the Leafs cap situation, and Marner wants to be a Leaf.
Which is why it's incredibly confusing why you believe Marner is going to willingly go along with this. You seem to believe that a team is going to overpay to clear a significant amount of cap space, overpay to regain their draft picks, convince Marner to want to screw over his own team that he wants to and likely will stay with, convince Marner to give up money and sit out multiple months for this chance, and send an offersheet that would instantly be matched, making all of it pointless. Except according to you, Toronto, unlike the offer-sheeting team, apparently has no ability to move salary for some reason.
Forgive me for not being worried.
Liferleafer
TSN Scrum Lurker
- Feb 9, 2011
- 39,848
- 13,005
Bomber0104
Registered User
Stats were once used by a certain someone around here to "prove" that Ian White was a #1 defenceman, Matt Stajan a #1 centre, and Tyler Bozak being better than Patrice Bergeron, etc. etc.
So yes, a lot can go wrong with the use of stats whether it's the actual stat itself or the individual using them.
There's nothing iron-clad about hockey stats, especially the one's available for public consumption.
So you think Matthews shoulder was injured after being checked by Trouba because he was having a good start to the year in terms of PPG and P/60?
If he had’ve started the year at a slower scoring pace he would’ve been able to sustain the body check and his shoulder wouldn’t have been injured.
That 50 goal, 100 point pace was actually after he had slowed down. In the 10 games following his signing, he had a 57 goal, 98 point pace. In the 5 games following his signing, he had a 66 goal, 115 point pace. He was no longer playing with Ennis, Nylander had come back and was starting to get back to his usual pace, and rookie Kapanen and Johnsson were getting more comfortable in the NHL. There was just as much reason to think his pace would go up. Easy to play captain hindsight now. Also, the closer he got to July 1st, the more likely he was to use that leverage, which could have destroyed the Leafs.
Teams would have easily given up four 1st round picks for Matthews. Easily.
Locking up Matthews for 10.5m would have been great, but that was never going to happen. We live in the real world. Also, Marner wasn't signing during the season, so signing them both at the same time wasn't an option.
shakes
Pep City
Reminds me of Ricky BobbyHahaha! Try again man. Typical...I am going to insult a fanbase but it makes it ok if I say I am not insulting them first. Hahahaha!
Nothing is imaginary about it. That was his production. Full stop. It's just shown in a way that adds more context.
This makes no sense. Round in the playoffs means absolutely nothing anymore anyway. Leafs have faced the 1st, 4th, and 3rd best teams in the league over the past 3 years, and were highly competitive in all of them, despite never having anywhere close to their full team or the quality of team they have now.
He would have easily gotten more than 10.5m. He would have gotten more than 11.6m. This is not a situation the Leafs could afford to be in.
Incorrect. Nylander counted for 6.96m against the Leaf's cap.
Incorrect and unsupported.
Pretty much all market mechanisms have Marner's value below Matthews.
Letting Matthews go was not an option for the Leafs like it is with Marner.
Incorrect. Based on how I calculate Matthews' cap percentage, and based on how GMs likely would have estimated the potential cap in the following year, Eichel would be around 13%. Matthews would be around 14%.
Matthews signed last year, and after the cap projection was released. There was a known number that he signed under.
Eichel signed a year early, when there was no cap projection, and before a massive increase in the cap. There was no known number, so we go off an educated estimate based on increases in the previous few years.
- Status
