Prospect Info: Mitch Marner Discussion Thread

[Menzinger]

When has he shown he's been a teir above others two years in row?

By scoring at rates that other players could only dream of. The fact alone that he actually IMPROVED upon his early 2ppg pace - which again is a huge achievement: all while leading his team to the memorial cup and being acknowledged by being named the league's playoff MVP.

I can't think of a single skill he can improve by yet another year playing among teenagers.

 

[mallory67]

great nhl players very often play great at world juniors...its one of the big evaluation tools for all scouts and GMs

It's a chance to see players against the TOP international players.
So instead of seeing your guy go up against the best in the Q or the O ... you get to see how he stacks up against the best under 20's in Russia.

It's a small sample, but very important.

 

[Menzinger]

No? It has been this way since the very first one. It's a spectacle with little relevance.

Yep.

It's some of the most entertaining hockey of the year - but I don't much weight in it as a prospect evaluation tool.

It's a handful of extra games which admittedly is useful to see many top players on the ice at the same time. But the way some talk about it - they act as if it's he most important games of the year. Which I think is absurd because of it being way, way too small of a sample size.

These players regular seasons + playoffs in their respective leagues has way more games to observe.

 

[DopeyFish]

I'll give you just this past year as a sample. Most had no idea who Patrik Laine was until the world Juniors. His stock skyrocketed after that and other tournaments.

he was known many many years ago lmao

 

[Gallagbi]

That's like saying Sidney Crosby has out grown the NHL.

If there was a level above the NHL, Crosby would be there.

 

[Menzinger]

Then why all the scouts and staffs there in person? Answer is simple. Where do players stack up against the best.

Because it's an easy way to see lots of prospects at once?

Nobody said the games don't matter, but I'd be wary of any scout who makes a major decision based primarily on that tournament alone. Or even puts it on equal weight to what those prospects did the rest of the year.

 

[Menzinger]

That's like saying Sidney Crosby has out grown the NHL.

If there was a higher quality league than the NHL, then yes, Crosby should be playing in that one.

Which skills does Marner need to improve on over a whole extra year in junior?

 

[DopeyFish]

Yeah ok then

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1550405

 

[DopeyFish]

Yeah ok then. You just showed me nothing. Look at the preliminaries heck even mid season. Then the world juniors happened and he flew up the chart.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=84238727&postcount=86

or flew down a spot

(that's from 2.5 years ago, too lol)

 

[DopeyFish]

Sorry didn't see the scouts name on that. Can you point it out?

Red Line Report

Kyle Woodlief is the scout, fyi

 

[Purity*]

When has he shown he's been a teir above others two years in row?

[mod]

Go ahead and give me the list of players who did what Marner did in junior, go ahead, do it.

 

[Mr Hockey*]

in the right place at the right time helped ...

 

[ULF_55]

[mod]

Go ahead and give me the list of players who did what Marner did in junior, go ahead, do it.

I wonder what Kane might have done if he wasn't in the NHL. Lindros would be another.

Good company though.

 

[DopeyFish]

Which team?

Not a team. You do know there's a bunch of scouting services, yes? Players don't usually appear out of nowhere and are scouted at every stage of their career. Assessments can be wrong, but eh, that's the nature of scouting.

For example, the player that's in the title has been known since he was FOUR

 

[Bullseye]

I'll give you just this past year as a sample. Most had no idea who Patrik Laine was until the world Juniors. His stock skyrocketed after that and other tournaments.

Jesse Pulj and Pat Laine were talked about for at least 2 years prior to their draft year because of their dominant play at every international tournament they participated in. Puljujarvi lead the WJC in points not Laine.

Laine did not come out of nowhere because of the WJC. He and Jesse showed what they had been showing all along. I think the World Championships raised a few eyebrows though. No 18 yr old ever performed in an NHL participated event like Laine did in the spring.

Aside note: I think Columbus made a mistake not taking Jesse 3rd.

 

[DopeyFish]

Really only two. Central Scouting and ISS

There's a lot more than two lol

 

[Stand Witness]

great nhl players very often play great at world juniors...its one of the big evaluation tools for all scouts and GMs

I am going to guess the correlation isn't as strong as you think. In fact, it shouldn't be too surprising to see that depending on where the tournament is located does seem to impact who is in the top 10 scoring.

Sorry about all the pictures.

04/05 (North America):

05/06 (North America):

06/07 (Europe):

07/08 (Europe):

08/09 (North America):

09/10 (North America):

10/11 (North America):

11/12 (North America):

12/13 (Europe):

13/14 (Europe):

14/15 (North America):

15/16 (Europe):

 

[Gallagbi]

Only two that aren't fantasy. Both are relevant to NHL teams. The others? Not so much.

Mckenzie had him 4th before the season. Not exactly an "unknown".

 

[Bullseye]

Where was Patrik Laine ranked before the world juniors?

Laine never came out of nowhere.

Laine started 4th behind Chychrun, Pulj, and Matthews in Sept.

When it became clear that Chychrun was not in the top 3 Laine and Pulj flip-flopped on many lists until Feb. when Bobo posted his list.

http://www.tsn.ca/tsn-mid-season-draft-ranking-topped-by-big-three-1.435206

Good try Mike.

 

[Battle Lin]

the world juniors often solidifies draft positions, and separates neck and neck prospects

when people interview GMs about prospects they pick after a draft...they all say the same things...he has high ice q, good size, had a strong world juniors, can skate, can shoot it...every time, scouts and GMs love the world juniors

 

[DopeyFish]

Only two that aren't fantasy. Both are relevant to NHL teams. The others? Not so much.

Ooooook

Scouting isn't a perfect science. That's why there's multiple resources on top of teams resources.

Leafs, for example, may have more scouts than ISS and CSS combined. But players are missed. Rolling back to the WJC... players there are pretty much mainly known. Because it's a best on best. The smaller teams may have a random talent that shows up there... like Latvia. Russia has a tendency to being underscouted. All the scouting reports are important because sometimes the first step to being noticed is being mentioned. But you won't have a high grade prospect just randomly show up at the WJC without some mention because these players are mostly stars from a young age. Why? Because getting on these teams is merit based where you had to prove yourself to get on them.

 

[Stand Witness]

When the WJC is held in North America vs. Europe for scoring

North America:

NA Players - 34
EU Players - 36

Europe:

NA Players - 19
EU Players - 31

Clearly North Americans don't perform as well over in Europe. Another reason why you can't compare players to past tournaments.

 

[studebaker17]

Team Canada in general was a train wreck . Very poor goal tending, pk , line combinations, chemistry and mostly coaching. They played 2 fewer games than either the USA and the Finns and scored as a team around half what either those teams scored. The top ten in scoring was dominated by the big lines on Finland, USA and Russia.
I would of been more concerned about Marner if he wasn't at or near the top of his own team in scoring but given the team he was on he still played well and in the elimination game i felt he was the best player on the ice against a very strong Finish team or at least he was in the 3rd period. Also note that Marner was still around a ppg but scored more goals than had assists which for him is odd.

 

[CDP]

Are we really still using the WJC to judge prospects

 

[Mr Hockey*]

And there's the truth. One period of hockey for the tournament. He scores 2 PP goals and then takes a bad penalty. Good players produce. I already pointed out RNH and a bad 2013 team yet he lead the tournament in scoring.

Mitch did play 2 periods of elite hockey at the WJU20 against the Fins.