How can you compare the playoff stats when the Leafs are 1 and done all the time? Most of the those NYI players are going to put up more stats in 1 playoff year, than most Leafs will have over 5 years.
Hyman plays on a line with Matthews and Marner and his linemates combined for 1 goal in 7 games so what are you expecting Hyman stats to look like, unless you're expecting the player making $2.25 mil to outproduce his $11 mil linemate to compare to those NYI?
I can tell you over the course of the last 2 regular season Hyman and Marner have scored the same 36 regular season goals only Hyman has scored more playoff goals as Mitch has zero.
I didn't do a Hyman to Pageau comparison, but I did do a direct comparison to Pageau to our Rocket trophy winner Matthews.
J.G. Pageau @ $5.0 mil AAV has played in 32 playoff games the last 2 years only since Lou Lam acquired him and he has 11 goals 13 assists and 24 points.
vs
Auston Matthews @ $11.6 AAV has played in 32 playoff games over 5 years since Lou Lam drafted him and he has 13 goals 11 assists and 24 points.
NYI 3rd line centre in just his last 2 playoff years has produced = #'s to Matthews his entire Leafs playoff career to date.
I can pick another NYI on that list in Josh Bailey at $5,000,000 AAV over the course of the last 2 playoffs only in 36 games has 8 goals 25 assists & 33 points way more than Matthews who has 24 playoff points career, or Marner that has 5 goals 25 points in their 32 playoff games over 5 playoff seasons and they both make $11 mil. Brock Nelson 16 goals 14 assists 30 points last 2 playoffs making $6 mil AAV. Eberle @ $5.5 mil has 8 goals 16 assists 24 playoff points.
Those NYI's on that list making $5 mil -$6 mil AAV aren't a comparison to Hyman, they actually outproduce our best players and most expensive players.
So I'm sure what your point you're trying to make to prove Hyman doesn't deserve a +$2.5-3 mil raise up to $5 mil because his regular season points which contracts are based on compares favourably to those NYI in that range.
Contracts are based on numbers and they're based on record advising projected value (ie TIME) and they're based on team need. What a team is willing to pay the player. Agents don't exclude playoffs performance. If you want to silo numbers, tell me what you think Marner's first two playoffs numbers yielded (Along with age, projected value, etc...) when coming to the negotiating table. You've repeated his last two seasons enough, what about his first two seasons? He was a ppg playoffs performer as a 20/21 year old.
At 30, what is Toronto paying for? What did the Islanders pay for in the players you've compared Hyman to? Were they turning 30? Were they the product of players like Matthews and Marner?
You can't use the same characteristics to suit one side of the argument and not another. You said, "Hyman plays on a line with Matthews and Marner and his linemates combined for 1 goal in 7 games so what are you expecting Hyman stats to look like."
Well...Spezza wasn't the product of Matthews and Marner. Neither was Nylander. Both Nylander and Spezza, without the vector playing with Matthews and Marner is supposed to provide in your example, scored more than Hyman. The expectation is, Zach Hyman proves his worth outside of Matthews and Marner or with Matthews and Marner, the way Nylander and Spezza did, or he's priced out of "on pace" seasons at the end of a season that is dependent upon -- as you note -- elite players like Matthews and Marner.
Even in your Pageau/Matthews comparison there's a note of certainty in the conclusion as if it proves the Hyman argument. It doesn't. It does the opposite. It says rightly, the value of any given player is determined by more than abstraction. I like Pageau, but there's only one Auston Matthews. Exclusivity has a price. There are prospectively cheaper options to Zach Hyman if the 6 year, 5.5/6M model is accurate. And I hope Toronto does the right thing and allow other clubs to entertain similarly opportunistic comparisons.
I mean, in the last two seasons, Hyman scored 70 regular season points. Marner scored a 134 points. Hyman's career total points is 185 points. Marner turned 24 a month ago. Hyman turns 30 in a couple of weeks. By the time Marner's 30, he could have almost 1000 points in the NHL. I don't see how there's a comparison, strict, abstract or otherwise in the models you're proposing.
Soon to be UFA, Mike Hoffman scored 46 goals over the last two seasons. A couple of questions: Is Mike Hoffman worth more in his next contract than Zach Hyman? If so, how much above $6M is Hoffman worth?
65 and 47 and their cap hits need to be gone the same was the Goat disappeared. Stick boy could have traded for Bennett and he could have been Hyman's replacement. That ship has now sailed.
