Minnesota Wild General Discussion IX

[TaLoN]

Staal is signed for another year, keep him.

Staal also brings the likely higher return.

It is more than a 1 or 2 year problem. Kaprizov and Boldy isn't going to turn this team around. You also have to make sure MR or KK are the next goalies to step up. The issue is that the GMs keep insisting it's only a one or two year issue and rebuild poorly.

I don't think it is considering our elite top 4 defense.

We have solid middle 6 players, we have Kap coming soon, we are likely to have a top 5 pick coming, Boldy is coming soon... likely sooner if at wing, but if his game wakes up at center, waiting is ok.

If it takes another year to get turned around, that is another top 5-10 pick and another offseason to work on filling gaps. I don't we'll be bad for 3... if it is 3+, that means more mistakes are happening, and suddenly it may take 5-8+ because you then start fighting losing culture on top of everything else. Losing culture is very tough to break.

 

[TaLoN]

Dubs continues to deny his problem...

As much as Dubnyk wants to scoff at the notion, as much as he says he knows how good he feels in net and right now not much has changed with his game, there is a ton of evidence that shows he has not been the same goaltender the past two seasons as the one who won 134 games during parts of four Wild seasons from 2015-18.

So does Dubnyk believe his game is off?
“No, I don’t,” he said during the last road trip. “I think if you look at the game as a whole, there’s just a couple goals getting by that when things are going well and you’re confident, those might not get through. And those are certainly goals that you want to make sure don’t get in the net. But it’s easy to with the lack of success this year so far to start to pick and poke holes.

Bruce still not enamored for obvious reasons

After a tough, three-goal start to his game at Arizona during the third game of the last trip, Dubnyk was outstanding during the third period of a come-from-behind win and started the next game in Los Angeles. He allowed two goals that night in a 3-1 loss to the Kings, then started the home rematch against Arizona and made 27 saves in a 3-2 win.

Then, prior to Saturday’s Carolina game, Boudreau announced he was starting Dubnyk because, “Devan is starting to play better, and we’ve got to get him in a routine where he can gain some confidence. … He’s starting to feel it a little bit, so we want to run with him a little bit.”

Yet one game later, Stalock is expected to start against the Sabres.

The most damming stats of them all...

“Goals saved above expected” is an advanced statistic that is the difference between the amount of expected goals a goaltender faces and the amount of actual goals they surrender. Of the 57 goalies who have logged 300-plus minutes, Dubnyk ranks 57th in the NHL at minus-13.03 goals saved above expected. His 5-on-5 save percentage of .903 ranks 41st.

His numbers this season are on par with his 32-game 2013-14 season in Edmonton that sparked trades to Nashville and Montreal and a career in jeopardy. That year, Dubnyk had an .894 save percentage, .902 5-on-5 save percentage and minus-17.2 goals saved above expected with the Oilers. His numbers are also on par with Backstrom’s 19-game 2014-15 season (.887 save percentage, .886 5-on-5 save percentage, minus-13.6 goals saved above expected) that precipitated the Dubnyk trade when a struggling Darcy Kuemper was also hurt.

Since 2017-18, Dubnyk’s goals saved above expected is second-worst in the NHL at minus-46.8.

A lot more stuff from GMBG and from Coach Mason as well.

 

[Wabit]

Staal also brings the likely higher return.


I don't think it is considering our elite top 4 defense.

We have solid middle 6 players, we have Kap coming soon, we are likely to have a top 5 pick coming, Boldy is coming soon... likely sooner if at wing, but if his game wakes up at center, waiting is ok.

If it takes another year to get turned around, that is another top 5-10 pick and another offseason to work on filling gaps. I don't we'll be bad for 3... if it is 3+, that means more mistakes are happening, and suddenly it may take 5-8+ because you then start fighting losing culture on top of everything else. Losing culture is very tough to break.

How elite will the defense be in 2 years? Brodin and Koivu could both be gone. Suter and Spurgeon aren't going to improve.

We'd have to bank on Seeler/Soucy/other guy filling Brodin's spot, JEE/Kunin filling Koivu's spot, no fall off from Suter and Spurgeon, and Dumba playing like he did before he was injured last year. We got a taste of the team without Koivu and a 6/7D playing in the top-4 last year, and there was nothing elite about it then imo.

Soucy is the same age as Dumba, and Seeler is the same age as Brodin. There isn't a LD in the system I'm excited about anymore, we're RD heavy in the prospect pool currently.

Brodin could be re-signed, but if it's before the expansion draft he'll be taken then. A wink-wink deal to have him sign after the expansion draft might work, but he would only be about 2 weeks away from testing the open market as a UFA then.

 

[DonatoisDaddy]

How elite will the defense be in 2 years? Brodin and Koivu could both be gone. Suter and Spurgeon aren't going to improve.

We'd have to bank on Seeler/Soucy/other guy filling Brodin's spot, JEE/Kunin filling Koivu's spot, no fall off from Suter and Spurgeon, and Dumba playing like he did before he was injured last year. We got a taste of the team without Koivu and a 6/7D playing in the top-4 last year, and there was nothing elite about it then imo.

Soucy is the same age as Dumba, and Seeler is the same age as Brodin. There isn't a LD in the system I'm excited about anymore, we're RD heavy in the prospect pool currently.

Brodin could be re-signed, but if it's before the expansion draft he'll be taken then. A wink-wink deal to have him sign after the expansion draft might work, but he would only be about 2 weeks away from testing the open market as a UFA then.

I think you're forgetting about our savior Fedor Gordeev

 

[TaLoN]

How elite will the defense be in 2 years? Brodin and Koivu could both be gone. Suter and Spurgeon aren't going to improve.

We'd have to bank on Seeler/Soucy/other guy filling Brodin's spot, JEE/Kunin filling Koivu's spot, no fall off from Suter and Spurgeon, and Dumba playing like he did before he was injured last year. We got a taste of the team without Koivu and a 6/7D playing in the top-4 last year, and there was nothing elite about it then imo.

Soucy is the same age as Dumba, and Seeler is the same age as Brodin. There isn't a LD in the system I'm excited about anymore, we're RD heavy in the prospect pool currently.

Brodin could be re-signed, but if it's before the expansion draft he'll be taken then. A wink-wink deal to have him sign after the expansion draft might work, but he would only be about 2 weeks away from testing the open market as a UFA then.

A long time between then and now, and drops along the way can be addressed along the way. A lot easier to maintain a strength than to fix a weakness.

Obviously I can't answer all that, because so much can change in a roster after 2 years. Look at us 2 years ago vs now for instance.

I do believe Soucy has a chance to be top 4 caliber, more so than Seeler since he seems to understand both ends of the rink at a higher level. He's been a nice revelation this year. Seeler has proven that he's NHL caliber himself too though, and if Brodin was moved, I'd be comfortable with him on the bottom pair with Soucy on the 2nd pair... freeing the asset value of Brodin to get help at forward.

 

[DANOZ28]

i would defend dubnyk if i thought the goals going in weren't his fault. he lets in one or 2 that should not go in almost every game. sometimes you have to face reality, dude yer not that good.

 

[Bazeek]

How elite will the defense be in 2 years? Brodin and Koivu could both be gone. Suter and Spurgeon aren't going to improve.

We'd have to bank on Seeler/Soucy/other guy filling Brodin's spot, JEE/Kunin filling Koivu's spot, no fall off from Suter and Spurgeon, and Dumba playing like he did before he was injured last year. We got a taste of the team without Koivu and a 6/7D playing in the top-4 last year, and there was nothing elite about it then imo.

Soucy is the same age as Dumba, and Seeler is the same age as Brodin. There isn't a LD in the system I'm excited about anymore, we're RD heavy in the prospect pool currently.

Brodin could be re-signed, but if it's before the expansion draft he'll be taken then. A wink-wink deal to have him sign after the expansion draft might work, but he would only be about 2 weeks away from testing the open market as a UFA then.

We are RD heavy, but Belpedio's played on the left. Not sure what side he's on in Iowa this year or if he should really be considered a LD, though.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

Although it's very annoying for fans to hear and listen to when it's so obvious watching Dubnyk play, I don't necessarily blame or get upset when Dubnyk talks about his game like that. As a goalie maybe that's the mindset he feels like he needs to take to get better or not get into his own head.

 

[TaLoN]

Although it's very annoying for fans to hear and listen to when it's so obvious watching Dubnyk play, I don't necessarily blame or get upset when Dubnyk talks about his game like that. As a goalie maybe that's the mindset he feels like he needs to take to get better or not get into his own head.

Did you see his quote about the goal vs Carolina that tipped off Spurgeons stick blade that Dubnyk easily should have saved? I remember it being pretty brutal in deflecting blame.

 

[Bazeek]

Although it's very annoying for fans to hear and listen to when it's so obvious watching Dubnyk play, I don't necessarily blame or get upset when Dubnyk talks about his game like that. As a goalie maybe that's the mindset he feels like he needs to take to get better or not get into his own head.

I don't expect him to throw himself on the sword or anything, but not complaining about the officiating or deflecting to his teammates would be appreciated.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

Yeah that's different...I guess it's one thing if you try to insulate yourself from any blame to help stay mentally tough (I guess?) but it's another entirely if you're putting it on teammates. The same teammates who make your job the easiest in the league.

 

[TaLoN]

Yeah that's different...I guess it's one thing if you try to insulate yourself from any blame to help stay mentally tough (I guess?) but it's another entirely if you're putting it on teammates. The same teammates who make your job the easiest in the league.

Found that quote...

Basically saying, "It's ok that you screwed up Spurge, usually it goes over the glass..."

 

[Wabit]

A long time between then and now, and drops along the way can be addressed along the way. A lot easier to maintain a strength than to fix a weakness.

Obviously I can't answer all that, because so much can change in a roster after 2 years. Look at us 2 years ago vs now for instance.

I do believe Soucy has a chance to be top 4 caliber, more so than Seeler since he seems to understand both ends of the rink at a higher level. He's been a nice revelation this year. Seeler has proven that he's NHL caliber himself too though, and if Brodin was moved, I'd be comfortable with him on the bottom pair with Soucy on the 2nd pair... freeing the asset value of Brodin to get help at forward.

I'm fine with either Soucy or Seeler in the bottom pair but see nothing more to their games to think they are anything more another Reilly/Olofsson from a couple years ago. Playing ~13 mins a night with almost no PK time on the 3rd pair to 20+ mins a night with a lot of PK time is a big jump.

Found that quote...

Basically saying, "It's ok that you screwed up Spurge, usually it goes over the glass..."

I see that more as "shit happens" once in awhile, don't worry about it. You're good at what you do, keep doing it.

 

[2Pair]

Although it's very annoying for fans to hear and listen to when it's so obvious watching Dubnyk play, I don't necessarily blame or get upset when Dubnyk talks about his game like that. As a goalie maybe that's the mindset he feels like he needs to take to get better or not get into his own head.

Never being able to admit fault shows an extreme lack of self confidence. I can't imagine that that's something you would want as a goaltender.

 

[57special]

I don't pay much attention to quotes like Dubnyk's. Athletes, and especially goalies, are out there on an island. Some players need to keep thinking positively about themselves in order to perform well(or not perform well, as the case may be). Others might need to flagellate themselves in public in order to play better.

It's not like the coaching staff will be coming up to him in practice saying, "take the day off, Doobs, you're killing it!"

 

[fentonsbrainchild]

There should be a sarcasm font

THeRe sHoULd bE a sArCaSm fOnT

 

[chchelseII]

I think you're forgetting about our savior Fedor Gordeev

He did get an assist tonight.

 

[BagHead]

He did get an assist tonight.

Yeah, he's a bit old for the league he's in, and so he should be scoring this year if he'll ever become anything, and so it's good that he is putting up points. I don't expect him to become anything, but never count out a 6'7" defenseman that has good skating and puck skills.

 

[DonatoisDaddy]

Anyone have any insight as to why Dumba didn't play the 3rd period last night? Was he even on the bench?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Anyone have any insight as to why Dumba didn't play the 3rd period last night? Was he even on the bench?

No insight, and he was not on the bench.

 

[Wild11MN]

So apparently Vegas is exempt from the Seattle expansion draft. That was something negotiated in their original deal. Lucky.

 

[Wild11MN]

Another fun fact - the Wild are the only team to have never had a hall of famer play for them at any point of their career, other than Vegas of course.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Another fun fact - the Wild are the only team to have never had a hall of famer play for them at any point of their career, other than Vegas of course.

Staal probably goes, and if he plays here until he’s 40, he’ll have played a good chunk of his career in MN

 

[Wild11MN]

Staal probably goes, and if he plays here until he’s 40, he’ll have played a good chunk of his career in MN

Burns is another potential candidate. Just nothing up to this point.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Burns is another potential candidate. Just nothing up to this point.

Yeah I get what your saying. It is sad and is just a result of us never having a superstar. I read something earlier this week that said Suter has a shot, but his arguement likely relies on him playing solid, consistent hockey for about 5 more years. I don’t think he gets in, but will be fun to follow.

I always wonder if Parise never ran into injury trouble of he’d be in the conversation. I mean, give him back those two years, and even those few years in NJ where he was out a fair amount, and he probably hits 500 goals when it’s all said and done.