Proposal: Minnesota-Ottawa

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

You’re a tweak guy. He didn’t say they were similar or mirginaly different, he simply asked what the add would need to be.

and when we mentioned Brodin, Dumba or actual pieces with value to Ottawa we got "are you off your f***ing rocker" as an answer.

And then AKL used SH/TOI and +/- stats to convincing anyone that Zucker is somewhat comparable to Stone defensively... but then Stones TOI is used against him for why his point totals are higher...

So Ottawa's ask is an overpayment which = a forward + defensemen of value because Stone is our best forward and if/when Karlsson is traded, he becomes our best player and captain. So we don't want to trade him, period.

So yeah, there is no discussion to be had. We're tired of fans trying to poach Duchene, Stone and Karlsson and everyone thinks they can be had for lesser value because of media/HF speculations...

 

[AKL]

So yeah, there is no discussion to be had. We're tired of fans trying to poach Duchene, Stone and Karlsson and everyone thinks they can be had for lesser value because of media/HF speculations...

That's fine. Everyone and their mother knows Karlsson is gone next summer at the latest. Hopefully Stone sticks around with a rebuilding team with an awful ownership/management group through his prime, for your sake.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I think Sens and Minny fans can all agree that there isn't a middle ground offer that both sides would be happy with in a Stone trade (mainly because Sens fans have next to no interest in such a trade.)

Unreasonable offers were the only way this thread was ever going to go.

Okay, and I was perfectly happy letting the thread die. It didn’t have a post in it since Wednesday and I was very well informed at that point that Ottawa fans didn’t/don’t want to move Stone.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The issue with the premise of Zucker + for Stone is that Zucker is not, in any way, shape, or form, the right centerpiece in a Mark Stone trade. Zucker is a very good piece - he would be amazing with Duchene, imo, and I'd happily give up other pieces for him - but he will never be the offensive engine of a team. That's what Stone is and has the ability to be. That is what the Senators need.

If Stone is dealt, it will be for a prospect with star potential or a DMan on a similar level as him (i.e Dumba). When you have responses saying that Stone is just marginally better than Zucker, that doesn't leave much room for discussion. When you have responses saying that we should assume Stone won't re-sign, that doesn't leave much room for discussion.

OP asked if Senators fans have any interest in a deal like this - the response has been a resounding (unanimous?) no. And rightfully so. The only player on Minnesota who is a viable centerpiece in a Stone trade is Dumba. If he is off the table, there's no discussion to be had. Zucker and the Wild's top prospect is not interesting in this scenario.

Put it this way, Zucker can't be the centrepiece in a trade for Stone. The + in your proposal would need to be more valuable than Zucker

The above two posts summarize it rather well.

The problem with a trade proposal that includes the infamous "+" is what exactly is the plus? If you do as the OP did and list a specific player along with the infamous "+", then most people will assume the "plus" is a lesser asset and perhaps even a minor detail or add-on.

And so, its not too surprising that the feedback to the OP is what it has been in this post i.e., this is a bad proposal or premise.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

A few things:

1. Five years of Zucker is likely to be more valuable than one year of Stone (if that's how the situation plays out; maybe it will, maybe it won't)
2. Ottawa would probably get better value elsewhere if they actually put Stone on the market (i.e. their 2019 1st back from Colorado, expected to be top 5 or top 3)
3. It sucks for Ottawa fans, because they've been kicked around on the Karlsson stuff so much over the past year, but if I'm Stone and I'm looking at a) Karlsson being UFA in a year and still might not start to the season with the team, b) Duchen being UFA in a year, and c) nothing else on the roster of note after them, what's the appeal of re-signing long-term?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Wild fans calling Stone a 60 point player do know that he scored 62 points in 58 games on the worst team in the league last year, right?

That's fine. Everyone and their mother knows Karlsson is gone next summer at the latest. Hopefully Stone sticks around with a rebuilding team with an awful ownership/management group through his prime, for your sake.

I don’t think Wild fans have much of a leg to stand on over Sens fans, but that’s just me. No need to be rude just for rudeness’ sake.

 

[Ctrain2k]

Eriksson-Ek/Kunin +1st on top of Zucker

 

[Bruce Granville]

Eriksson-Ek/Kunin +1st on top of Zucker

Major disappointment ahead...

 

[Sota Popinski]

Sooo Zucker has 1 good season, yes 1.. where he scores 33 goals on a near 15% shooting and now he holds similar value to Stone? The guy that's been a 2 way force for about 3 years now and would be considered for Team Canada. LOLLLL to the OP trying to argue they are "similar or marginal".. not even close. He's Ottawa's BEST FORWARD.

Contracts aside, Zucker doesn't hold Stones jockstrap... close this crap thread.

I haven't been on this board long, but this is probably the funniest post I have seen.

"Close this thread I just resurrected after 5 days."

 

[Bazeek]

Stone's like Panarin: if his current team can extend him they will, and there's little chance that he'd be available for trade. If it becomes clear that they can't, they'll trade him for whatever the market dictates they can get. Considering where losing Stone (and likely Karlsson) would leave Ottawa, I'm guessing it would be for picks and prospects.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Stone's a very good player, Zucker is a good player. Asking what the plus would be was not a grenade in the room that this thread turned into......as usual.

 

[thadman]

MARK STONE (last three seasons):

0.32 goals/GP
0.55 assists/GP
15.6% shooting
6.9 CF% relative
99.8 PDO
53.2 oZS%

Most Common ES Linemates (2017-18):

Brassard, Dzingel - 18%
Brassard, Smith - 13%
Brassard, Ryan - 12%

JASON ZUCKER (last three seasons):

0.29 goals/GP
0.28 assists/GP
12.3% shooting
2.4 CF% relative
101.6 PDO
45.8 oZS%

Most Common ES Linemates (2017-18):

Koivu, Granlund - 35%
Staal, Niederreiter - 17%
Staal, Granlund - 14%

Full disclaimer - three year averages were estimated based on GP and not the appropriate underlying raw metrics.

Most things considered, it looks to me that Stone is clearly the better player (but it goes without saying that an add like Dumba would be too much). I haven't read every one of these comments, but it seems like a lot of the support for the notion that Stone is only a slight upgrade on Zucker is based on raw totals, +/-, or TOI... shouldn't have to explain why that's illogical thinking.

 

[stempniaksen]

Not sure there's a team in the league that would move their best forward for a downgrade and a small "+". If Stone were to ever be moved it's likely for a package of picks and prospects as it would signal a rebuild. There isn't much logic in discussing the OP's proposal because it's not a fir for the Senators regardless of value.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

MARK STONE (last three seasons):

0.32 goals/GP
0.55 assists/GP
15.6% shooting
6.9 CF% relative
99.8 PDO
53.2 oZS%

Most Common ES Linemates (2017-18):

Brassard, Dzingel - 18%
Brassard, Smith - 13%
Brassard, Ryan - 12%

JASON ZUCKER (last three seasons):

0.29 goals/GP
0.28 assists/GP
12.3% shooting
2.4 CF% relative
101.6 PDO
45.8 oZS%

Most Common ES Linemates (2017-18):

Koivu, Granlund - 35%
Staal, Niederreiter - 17%
Staal, Granlund - 14%

Full disclaimer - three year averages were estimated based on GP and not the appropriate underlying raw metrics.

Most things considered, it looks to me that Stone is clearly the better player (but it goes without saying that an add like Dumba would be too much). I haven't read every one of these comments, but it seems like a lot of the support for the notion that Stone is only a slight upgrade on Zucker is based on raw totals, +/-, or TOI... shouldn't have to explain why that's illogical thinking.

I know this might a case of picking the answer that you want, but what are the numbers if it's based off of the last 2 years instead of 3? There was just such a notable difference in Zucker's play from 2016-18 vs. 2015-16, I'd be curious.

 

[Bazeek]

I know this might a case of picking the answer that you want, but what are the numbers if it's based off of the last 2 years instead of 3? There was just such a notable difference in Zucker's play from 2016-18 vs. 2015-16, I'd be curious.

I'd also be curious to see a breakdown of 5v5 vs powerplay production. Not saying that it'd even things out, but I know that was a pretty big factor in Zucker's bump in numbers last year.

 

[Taluss]

Considering that if Karlsson is traded Stone is most likely the next Captain the plus will most likely be a high ask.... Hm although it is Dorion.... The + would most likely be determined on how much Stone would sign for, his interest to stay in Ottawa and what the sens future plan is. All in all I don’t really have an answer for the +

 

[2Pair]

I know this might a case of picking the answer that you want, but what are the numbers if it's based off of the last 2 years instead of 3? There was just such a notable difference in Zucker's play from 2016-18 vs. 2015-16, I'd be curious.

Change the numbers to per season or even P/60 and I bet the gap closes as well.

 

[AKL]

Change the numbers to per season or even P/60 and I bet the gap closes as well.

It does.

 

[Sensators]

Last year Stone had 11 pp points to zuckers 16. In even strength production stone had 51p in 58 games. (.88), .88 was I think the THIRD highest rate in the league behind only Mcdavid and Marchand. This is on a team that was bottom 2 in the league, and he never played with a #1 center either. Zucker had .59.

IMO Stone had a lucky year last year, but I also think that it would be hard for him to be that bad on the pp again so I'm not sure how much his numbers dip. I'm also sure more of Zuckers points are primary points. With this all said at even strength stone is a SPECIAL player. It truely doesn't make much sense for someone who is not fast and not super shifty to be able to carry a line the way he does. His linemates production always falls when he leaves and this is why sens fans do not want him traded.

He also brings a lot more gifability than Zucker so Boudreau might need to be included to balance that out.

 

[thadman]

I know this might a case of picking the answer that you want, but what are the numbers if it's based off of the last 2 years instead of 3? There was just such a notable difference in Zucker's play from 2016-18 vs. 2015-16, I'd be curious.

Sure, no problem.

MARK STONE (last two seasons):

0.33 goals/GP
0.57 assists/GP
15.8% shooting
7.0 CF% relative
100.5 PDO
53.5 oZS%

JASON ZUCKER (last two seasons):

0.34 goals/GP
0.35 assists/GP
14.0% shooting
2.5 CF% relative
102.6 PDO
42.9 oZS%

Zucker looks a bit better. So does Stone, by a lesser degree.

I should clarify that all possession metrics are at even strength.

EDIT: small changes to possession numbers. Noticed a minor error in the calculations.

 

[thadman]

I'd also be curious to see a breakdown of 5v5 vs powerplay production. Not saying that it'd even things out, but I know that was a pretty big factor in Zucker's bump in numbers last year.

Sorry, not sure where to get reliable powerplay possession metrics. You're right though. Zucker never received more than a minute of powerplay time per game prior to 2017-18, but saw 2:11 minutes last year. No coincidence that he got 16 PPP in 2017-18 compared to just 1 PPP in 2016-17. For comparison, Stone received ~3:05 minutes in each of the previous two years (and scored 25 total PPP during that time).

It should be noted, however, that Ottawa has posted a dreadful 16.8% PP% in the last two years, while Minnesota has scored at a respectable 20.7% clip. Part of the variance in PPP production is always attributable to team/coaching dynamics.

At the end of the day, Stone has performed much better. Better deployment is certainly part of the story, but Zucker still has a lot to prove. Better deployment does not necessarily equate to better production, so the whole "Zucker would have done just as well if he had better deployment" argument doesn't hold well.

Zucker just broke 50 points for the first time at 26, which is statistically past his prime. That was obviously factored into the deal he just signed.

There's definitely a gap between these two players, and it's not particularly close.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Sure, no problem.

MARK STONE (last two seasons):

0.33 goals/GP
0.57 assists/GP
15.8% shooting
7.0 CF% relative
100.4 PDO
53.5 oZS%

JASON ZUCKER (last two seasons):

0.34 goals/GP
0.35 assists/GP
14.0% shooting
2.5 CF% relative
102.4 PDO
43.8 oZS%

Zucker looks a bit better. So does Stone, by a lesser degree.

I should clarify that all possession metrics are at even strength.

Perfect so we can put this one to bed, considering Stone mainly played with Brassard, Dzingel, Smith and Ryan while Zucker mostly played with Staal, Granlund, Niederreiter and Koivu.

Include the fact that Stone leads in takeaways, is better defensively and drives his line as a winger (like Alfredsson use to do) he is by far the better player and in another tier all together...

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Sorry, not sure where to get reliable powerplay possession metrics. You're right though. Zucker never received more than a minute of powerplay time per game prior to 2017-18, but saw 2:11 minutes last year. No coincidence that he got 16 PPP in 2017-18 compared to just 1 PPP in 2016-17. For comparison, Stone received ~3:05 minutes in each of the previous two years (and scored 25 total PPP during that time).

It should be noted, however, that Ottawa has posted a dreadful 16.8% PP% in the last two years, while Minnesota has scored at a respectable 20.7% clip. Part of the variance in PPP production is always attributable to team/coaching dynamics.

At the end of the day, Stone has performed much better. Better deployment is certainly part of the story, but Zucker still has a lot to prove. Better deployment does not necessarily equate to better production, so the whole "Zucker would have done just as well if he had better deployment" argument doesn't hold well.

Zucker just broke 50 points for the first time at 26, which is statistically past his prime. That was obviously factored into the deal he just signed.

There's definitely a gap between these two players, and it's not particularly close.

I'll add that Stone primarily plays down low to the right on the PP and the Sens NEVER used down low plays. Always puck cycling at the top of the umbrella with Turris/Duchene, Karlsson and Hoffman getting most of the touches. Our PP has been awful the last 2 years and even it if improved just a tad, Stone would have an even bigger point gap.

 

[thadman]

Change the numbers to per season or even P/60 and I bet the gap closes as well.

MARK STONE (last two seasons):

1.24 goals/60
2.18 assists/60
15.8% shooting
6.9 CF% relative
100.5 PDO
53.5 oZS%

JASON ZUCKER (last two seasons):

1.44 goals/60
1.46 assists/60
14.0% shooting
2.5 CF% relative
102.6 PDO
42.9 oZS%

Zucker pulls ahead in goal scoring, but Stone still has a sizable lead in overall point production.

Possession number change only by a small degree because I've used either GP or TOI to estimate the two-season averages. Technically, units of time have no impact on these possession rates.

I'm speculating, but I assume you've only asked for rates per season specifically for Zucker's benefit (since he's only missed three games in the last two seasons, to Stone's 35).

 

[Bazeek]

MARK STONE (last two seasons):

1.24 goals/60
2.18 assists/60
15.8% shooting
6.9 CF% relative
100.5 PDO
53.5 oZS%

JASON ZUCKER (last two seasons):

1.44 goals/60
1.46 assists/60
14.0% shooting
2.5 CF% relative
102.6 PDO
42.9 oZS%

Zucker pulls ahead in goal scoring, but Stone still has a sizable lead in overall point production.

Possession number change only by a small degree because I've used either GP or TOI to estimate the two-season averages. Technically, units of time have no impact on these possession rates.

I'm speculating, but I assume you've only asked for rates per season specifically for Zucker's benefit (since he's only missed three games in the last two seasons, to Stone's 35).

I can't speak for the others, but the only argument I'd make here is that:

1.) Stone's offensive numbers over the last 3 seasons are absolutely better than Zucker's.
2.) The degree to which Stone's (non-possession) numbers are better goes down if you take away powerplay time, where Zucker hasn't seen much time until this last season.
3.) Looking just at 2017-18, the gap isn't as big as it was from 2015-17.
4.) Looking ahead, I think Zucker's numbers will be closer to his 2017-18 season than 2015-17. That might reek of optimism, but the biggest difference for him last year was the increased powerplay time and better linemates. His 5v5 scoring and shooting percentage stayed about the same, and I don't expect he'll be bumped from the top-6 or lose powerplay time going forward.
5.) Ultimately I think Stone's the better player, but I don't think the gap is wide enough to justify some of the histrionics in this thread. That's nothing new, though.

But none of that amounts to an argument for accepting Zucker+ for Stone. Like I said earlier: I think Ottawa either extends him and keeps him, or can't extend him and trades him for futures. I don't see Zucker being appealing in either case, regardless of how the two compare.