Dreger: Minnesota in the market for a top 6 center

[Bazeek]

Well obviously age and contract factor in, and acknowledge that’s why Dumba is more valuable. But in terms of value, they aren’t too far off as Barrie is also an offensive RHD dman who just put up essentially 60 points.

I made sure to reference both points, thus I don’t have to be so black and white in “picking one”

You referenced it and immediately hand-waved it away by concluding that they're "not far off" in value. That's only defensible if you think that Barrie's currently a much better player, which I think would be a hard case to make.

 

[Bazeek]

Has anyone made a David Backes joke yet? Good local boy! His skating is better after working with a figure skating coach! He had his intestines removed last season and is better now! Looking great in camp!

No, but this thread could use some humor.

 

[P10p]

Go tell me how Columbus will take to your Kunin + Boldy + picks offer for Dubois.

Not to mention why are you listing Kaprisov when you just said you’d only move him for a 70+ point young center with some term. When Dubois doesn’t fit those criteria.

You're acting like trade value is set in stone because you don't want to be wrong. Duchene was aquired for 2 meh's and 2 1sts. Seguin was squired for 3 bland prospects an Erikson. How will Minnesota ever aquire 2 1st round picks... Oh the humanity....

 

[JesusNPucks]

J. Zucker for K. Turris?

 

[Bazeek]

J. Zucker for K. Turris?

I'm not sure that I'd trade Foligno for the Turris we saw in Nashville last year, let alone Zucker.

 

[AKL]

No no no. No backtracking. You said 40 goal and 80 point winger.

And yes I would lay into anyone as well that stating Zadina will be a 40 goal scorer and thus currently worth a 70 point player.

Hughes I want to give some leeway to as he is a 1st OA, but still saying he is going to be a 90 point guy is a all scenarios work out, and that is far from a guarantee.

The answer will be higher than “I want it” because Hfboards overrates the hell out of young guys and especially prospects. No GMs are chomping at the bit to move Tkachuk for Kakko because they aren’t gamblers. The upside for a better 1st line winger isn’t worth the bombing potential where they would lose their jobs.

This is my point? No one is chomping at the bit to get rid of these players because there’s no reason to get rid of that potential for anything short of a sure thing. No ones going to give up Hughes, but if you offered MacKinnon for Hughes? New Jersey jumps on that.

No ones going to give up Kakko but if you offered Marner for him? New York does that.

There’s no reason for us to move Kaprizov. He’s probably available for the right player, but the right player isn’t Trochek. The right player is someone who scores at the rate we hope Kaprizov can reach. Otherwise there’s no point to trading him.

I’m not sure where I’m backtracking. There are two separate conversations going on here and you seem to be very confused by it. I’ll try to make it clear.

We can get a top 6 center without giving up Dumba, he’s simply not available. We also don’t need or want to give up Kaprizov for a top 6 center unless it’s a really good, young top 6 center.

You look at the Duchene, O’Reilly deals, none of them include pieces like Dumba or Kaprizov. Even the Seguin deal didn’t include anyone like those two guys. Any other players, ie Dubois, are examples of the type of player it would take to consider moving either. In that case, Columbus has no reason to do that, because of the risk it carries, which is why those deals don’t happen.

What I think Kaprizov can do in the NHL compared to what you think he can do is largely irrelevant. His value is that of a top 10-15 prospect league wide. Those guys don’t get moved. If I’m talking about moving him in this thread it’s because he hasn’t been explicitly or implicitly stated as off limits. It’s for the sake of conversation.

Are you confused about anything else? Allow me to clarify.

 

[Digitalbooya]

J. Zucker for K. Turris?

5 years left at $6m per... no.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Eakin?

 

[XX]

Stepan should be available this summer. Maybe at the deadline if the Coyotes are completely out of it. Could be a good stop gap.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Eakin?

Top 6 center means 1st or 2nd line aka #1C or #2C.
Not 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th line center.

 

[LeafSteel]

Jason Spezza sends chocolate and flowers......

J/k.

 

[AKL]

Top 6 center means 1st or 2nd line aka #1C or #2C.
Not 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th line center.

It’s amazing how many people in this thread don’t know what top 6 center means. I guess that’s on me, I should have been more clear that top 6 center doesn’t just mean one of the 6 best centers in your organization.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I hate to say it, but I think the fans of other teams are right. If we’re not moving Dumba, we’re not getting back a young top 6 center. We could move Boldy or Kaprizov for one, but not a young one. In my opinion it would be stupid to move our top prospects for 29+ year old centers. Dumba could return us a hell of a center, but I think it would have to be the right deal to maximize his value. That being said, I’m not a fan of trading from a position of strength to address a weakness. The level of player i’d Need to get back for Dumba is Barzal. I think this Center of the Future issue is going to have to be solved through the draft, like it or not.

 

[AKL]

I hate to say it, but I think the fans of other teams are right. If we’re not moving Dumba, we’re not getting back a young top 6 center. We could move Boldy or Kaprizov for one, but not a young one. In my opinion it would be stupid to move our top prospects for 29+ year old centers. Dumba could return us a hell of a center, but I think it would have to be the right deal to maximize his value. That being said, I’m not a fan of trading from a position of strength to address a weakness. The level of player i’d Need to get back for Dumba is Barzal. I think this Center of the Future issue is going to have to be solved through the draft, like it or not.

I don’t think the expectation is that the guy we’re gonna get is “young”, depending on how you define young. RNH is 26, he could feasibly be a target. Maybe some guys in the 27-29 range become available. I’m not looking for a 21-23 year old guy, and I don’t think Guerin is limiting himself to that either.

There’s a pretty big middle ground between a 23- top 6 center and our 35+ top 6 centers

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I don’t think the expectation is that the guy we’re gonna get is “young”, depending on how you define young. RNH is 26, he could feasibly be a target. Maybe some guys in the 27-29 range become available. I’m not looking for a 21-23 year old guy, and I don’t think Guerin is limiting himself to that either.

You’re right, RNH would be a great target, though he’s a soon to be UFA. My only issue with a player of his caliber is that I don’t see any peices that I would move for him. I don’t think we’re an RNH away from the cup, I’d rather build around our young players than trade them To live another day as a “good” but not “great” team. I can’t think of any centers that are really a realistic and worthwhile get if we don’t move Dumba.

 

[AKL]

You’re right, RNH would be a great target, though he’s a soon to be UFA. My only issue with a player of his caliber is that I don’t see any peices that I would move for him. I don’t think we’re an RNH away from the cup, I’d rather build around our young players than trade them To live another day as a “good” but not “great” team. I can’t think of any centers that are really a realistic and worthwhile get if we don’t move Dumba.

If Kunin and Ek don’t turn into bonafide top 6 centers this season and we lose Koivu and Staal, suddenly RNH is a very worthwhile target.

I think when the rumor is that we’re looking for a top 6 center, it’s one that will be able to play top 6 minutes when Koivu and Staal are done. Not a first line center for the future. Guys like RNH, Trochek, etc. Guys we can easily get (value wise, in theory) with the assets we have without giving up Kaprizov or Dumba.

 

[rynryn]

how much do you think we'd be safe paying RNH and it had better not be too much to be able to pay another top six center.

 

[AKL]

how much do you think we'd be safe paying RNH and it had better not be too much to be able to pay another top six center.

On the UFA market he probably gets 7Mx6? Maybe 7.5. Kinda depends on how the next two seasons go. Remember this is to replace Koivu/Staal. We also drop the salary of whichever players we’re sending back. Pateryn, Rask too.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

On the UFA market he probably gets 7Mx6? Maybe 7.5. Kinda depends on how the next two seasons go. Remember this is to replace Koivu/Staal. We also drop the salary of whichever players we’re sending back. Pateryn, Rask too.

Hayes got $50M over 7 years. I don't see any reason why RNH would accept anything less, and I would fully expect that he'd probably be looking for markedly more.

 

[AKL]

Hayes got $50M over 7 years. I don't see any reason why RNH would accept anything less, and I would fully expect that he'd probably be looking for markedly more.

Hayes is pretty severely overpaid.

Like I said, it depends on what happens this year and next. If He has more~70 point seasons with 25-30 goals, yeah he could get 8M or more. If he reverts back to ~20 goals and 55 points, I'd say 7-7.5. Which is pretty comparable to Hayes, actually.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Hayes is pretty severely overpaid.

Like I said, it depends on what happens this year and next. If He has more~70 point seasons with 25-30 goals, yeah he could get 8M or more. If he reverts back to ~20 goals and 55 points, I'd say 7-7.5. Which is pretty comparable to Hayes, actually.

As UFA's tend to be.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

You referenced it and immediately hand-waved it away by concluding that they're "not far off" in value. That's only defensible if you think that Barrie's currently a much better player, which I think would be a hard case to make.

The way I see it they are both top pairing RHD offensive Dman. Barrie has more offensive instincts and passing in his favor. Dumba has age, contract, and shot in his. In the end, though they would have the same role on any team, and thus very similar in value (in my opinion).

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Hayes is pretty severely overpaid.

Like I said, it depends on what happens this year and next. If He has more~70 point seasons with 25-30 goals, yeah he could get 8M or more. If he reverts back to ~20 goals and 55 points, I'd say 7-7.5. Which is pretty comparable to Hayes, actually.

Absolutely. That Hayes contract is one of the worst in the league

 

[AKL]

As UFA's tend to be.

Not to the extent that Hayes is. Look at some of the other guys in the 6.5M-7.5M range. Hayes is a 45-50 point player. He doesn't deserve that money for that term. He took Fletcher to task because they desperately needed a 2C. He's being paid similarly to Tarasenko, Bergeron, Anders Lee, Ryan O'Reilly, Joe Pavelski. He isn't anywhere near those guys.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

This is my point? No one is chomping at the bit to get rid of these players because there’s no reason to get rid of that potential for anything short of a sure thing. No ones going to give up Hughes, but if you offered MacKinnon for Hughes? New Jersey jumps on that.

No ones going to give up Kakko but if you offered Marner for him? New York does that.

There’s no reason for us to move Kaprizov. He’s probably available for the right player, but the right player isn’t Trochek. The right player is someone who scores at the rate we hope Kaprizov can reach. Otherwise there’s no point to trading him.

I’m not sure where I’m backtracking. There are two separate conversations going on here and you seem to be very confused by it. I’ll try to make it clear.

We can get a top 6 center without giving up Dumba, he’s simply not available. We also don’t need or want to give up Kaprizov for a top 6 center unless it’s a really good, young top 6 center.

You look at the Duchene, O’Reilly deals, none of them include pieces like Dumba or Kaprizov. Even the Seguin deal didn’t include anyone like those two guys. Any other players, ie Dubois, are examples of the type of player it would take to consider moving either. In that case, Columbus has no reason to do that, because of the risk it carries, which is why those deals don’t happen.

What I think Kaprizov can do in the NHL compared to what you think he can do is largely irrelevant. His value is that of a top 10-15 prospect league wide. Those guys don’t get moved. If I’m talking about moving him in this thread it’s because he hasn’t been explicitly or implicitly stated as off limits. It’s for the sake of conversation.

Are you confused about anything else? Allow me to clarify.

Yes you were backtracking. You said 40 goal 80 point winger, and then in your next response started talking about him being a 30 goal scorer. 2 very different things. Its much easier to claim 30 goalscorer than it is 40 +80 and you knew that.
What top 6 center are you getting without giving up Kaprizov or Dumba. Even Kaprisov wouldn't be enough as I have said. Propose a realistic trade in your eyes.
Yes you keep citing the O'Rielly and Duchene deals. Yes O'Rielly got traded for nothing, but it'd be impossible to argue that as a precedent. That deal is one of the worst trades in recent memory. Duchene got traded for a lot of futures, so much so, that Ottawa (who is symbolizing Minny in this case) would have been much better off keeping their futures. Seguin again an absolutely horrible deal that only went through because of how bad Chia is as a GM. None of the trades you refer to are fair, nor the norm, so I'm not why you think you will be able to steal a young elite 1C like Seguin, because those happen once every decade.

And yes what Kaprisov's ceiling is, is largely relevant. And yes they do get moved Brannstrom just got moved for a UFA in Stone.
The only reason Brannstrom fetched Stone was because he was a UFA, if Brannstrom pans out he is a solid top pairing guy who is worth similar to Stone, but if Stone has any term, they aren't anywhere in the realm of the same value. Again supporting my point, a prospect with a x potential is not worth close to the same player who is at X level. Kaprisov isn't worth close to a 70 point decently young player, because he himself only has a chance of becoming just that. It's like the Family Guy clip of what could be in the mystery box, even a boat. I'm not arguing you should trade him for a 50 point center, you're not in the right position rn to be trading away young talent, I'm arguing that under the assumption that you were (this is all hypothetical), his value is much under your expectations. I'd argue this applies to every prospect with every fanbase on hfboards. Young potential hype and overrating is out of control.

Has that helped claify?