Confirmed with Link: Miller Gets the Bridge. Two-Years, $2.75 AAV

[Mikos87]

Is the AAV $2.65 or $2.75?

I'm seeing conflicting numbers.

 

[darko]

I've seen 2.625 per.

2y/5.25 mill

 

[NYRFAN218]

Miller's agent confirmed $2.75 per. $2.5 base this year with 250K signing bonus, $2.75 salary next year.

 

[Tawnos]

not sure what there is to hate about bridge deals. if more teams used bridge deals instead of handing out over-inflated contracts coming of ELC deals maybe we wouldn't need another lockout every few years

you can pretty much bet that we are a few years away from another lockout and this time the 'hill the league will die on' will be putting a cap on 2nd contracts and forcing everyone to take a bridge deal

I'm happy with the deal. It works for me.

But can I just say that this is a MASSIVE misunderstanding of the way the economics of the NHL works. The players, as a whole, get paid exactly the same amount, whether there are massive 2nd contracts or not. They can't get paid more than 50% of the revenue and they can't get paid less. It's guaranteed. There have been a couple of years in this system where, not only did the players get all of their escrow money back, but the owners actually had to pay them more out of the fund they're required to set aside for that purpose. It hasn't happened in a while (I don't think it has in this CBA, but in the last one), but it has happened.

The last lockout wasn't about fixing contract term issues. The central issue was knocking the player's share down from 57% to 50%. Contract structure was a side issue, and they did it because the playing field was tilted, but it wasn't the reason for the lockout.

 

[Matz03]

Sure, you want that, but I think it'd take a massive change in JT's game than what we've seen from him.



The spike in his shooting percentage? Most definitely. The jury is out on whether or not this is the new normal for JT. That's why this is a gamble between the bridge or the no bridge.

Thing is though, is that JT's shooting percentage was basically elite last year. I don't know if JT Miller keeps that up.

So like darko is saying, to maintain his goal total, he's going to need to shoot a lot more.

While I definitely expect his shooting % to go down, Zuccs too by the way, remember that Miller was bounced around top 9 and spent some time with Stepan and some time with Brass, he was bounced all over. I do expect him to settle into a more consistent role next year including pp so that should help him get his shot rate up.

Also remember we all talked about Kleins shooting % and how needs to be traded, and then he comes back and just repeats it?

Anyway I think he'll settle into a top six role, put up 45 points. Bridge deal right move here.

 

[RangerBlues]

Good for the Rangers for not handing out one of those absurd long term deals.
In a few years your gonna hear nothing but regret for most of those deals.

 

[Machinehead]

I give it a 7.5/10

 

[darko]

I'm surprised how many people on main boards like it. Went there expecting 'overpaid', 'overrated' and 'who' comments.

 

[Machinehead]

I'm surprised how many people on main boards like it. Went there expecting 'overpaid', 'overrated' and 'who' comments.

Yeah, same.

Sometimes I feel like we could sign Ovechkin at league minimum and people would **** on it over there.

Pleasantly surprised.

 

[Vitto79]

I'm surprised how many people on main boards like it. Went there expecting 'overpaid', 'overrated' and 'who' comments.

Miller does stand out at times cause he can be physical . He's streaky but had more streaks last year lol

 

[Beer League Sniper]

Further, everyone gets on Kreider for his inconsistencies, but JT gets a pass.

I give JT a little more leash for a few reasons. First, he's 2 years younger than Kreider. Second, he plays a much smarter game than Kreider. Many of Miller's **** ups come from actually trying to make an aggressive play with the puck. Kreider just stops skating and playing physical, making him useless.

Plus, this hit will always hold a special place in my heart.

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

He is still an RFA after this deal. I am ok with this deal. I would love to burn some years of his UFA time but that would be a 5 or 6 year deal to burn any amount of years worth arguing about. This is best very the rangers now. When he needs to be signed again we still have some leverage, no nash, hopefully no girardi and staal.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Good for the Rangers for not handing out one of those absurd long term deals.
In a few years your gonna hear nothing but regret for most of those deals.

Yea, locking up valuable players at lower cap hits over the long term is an awful idea. I mean that McDonagh contract is terrible!

The difference between locking up a player like Miller now and giving a bridge deal is the difference between the Stepan and the McDonagh contract.

If you have a player that is talented and you think he will continue to progress (I think the majority are in agreement here on Miller), then it's worth taking a gamble with a lower cap hit over 5 or 6 years.

This deal is yet again setting this team up for failure cap wise.

 

[Badko]

Palmieri got six years at 4 million off one good year.

Exactly! Why would Miller sign long term for less than $4MM per?

 

[Beer League Sniper]

Yea, locking up valuable players at lower cap hits over the long term is an awful idea. I mean that McDonagh contract is terrible!

The difference between locking up a player like Miller now and giving a bridge deal is the difference between the Stepan and the McDonagh contract.

If you have a player that is talented and you think he will continue to progress (I think the majority are in agreement here on Miller), then it's worth taking a gamble with a lower cap hit over 5 or 6 years.

This deal is yet again setting this team up for failure cap wise.

McDonagh was an elite player when he signed that deal. Miller isn't. Miller is exactly the kind of player you bridge, since his ceiling is so unknown.

Stepan is the player we should have given a long-term contract to, but instead bridged. Be upset about that contract, not this one.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

McDonagh was an elite player when he signed that deal. Miller isn't. Miller is exactly the kind of player you bridge, since his ceiling is so unknown.

Stepan is the player we should have given a long-term contract to, but instead bridged. Be upset about that contract, not this one.

Miller, imo, is going to be a superior player to Stepan. And they could have gotten him locked up long term, 5 or 6 years, probably around 4 million.

This is a dumb gamble on the Rangers part.

 

[silverfish]

Miller, imo, is going to be a superior player to Stepan. And they could have gotten him locked up long term, 5 or 6 years, probably around 4 million.

This is a dumb gamble on the Rangers part.

What makes you believe that Miller will be superior to Stepan?

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

See, I definitely get the bridge with Miller due to his inconsistency if his agents demands long term were crazy.

But if it were possible to lock him up for, say $4-4.25M over 5 years I think that's hard to pass up. Say current deal + 4-5-5 for a $3.9M cap hit.

I mean, Andrew Shaw just signed for that cap hit. People act like a $4M cap hit these days has to be JVR to be a good contract. A good 2nd/3rd line tweener is easily worth $3.9M a year. $3.9M for Miller is only horrifically not worth it if he completely regresses to like a 30 pt level.

In 2 years, if he is still a 2nd/3rd line type complimentary scorer he will probably expect close to $5M. That is borderline not worth it for that role, and if so then you have a good player you developed get traded for scraps due to "wanting too much" a la Hagelin and the team is worse off.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

TRIGGERED!

Here's a rant on Miller that I was going to put on Twitter, but now is going here. Y'all brought this on yourselves

This is a good gamble for NYR and I think they're going to win it. If he goes the next two seasons without hitting 20 goals again, then they can re-up him at less than $4m they would've had to today if they ate into his Group III years.

When have the Rangers won on these bridge deals? They lost on pretty much every single one. The only contract they won on was McD. Kreider may be the first one they ever win on and that's not a good thing (and also remains to be seen).

Hagelin, Staal, Girardi, Stepan (this one was a blatant mistake at the time), etc.

Further, everyone gets on Kreider for his inconsistencies, but JT gets a pass. 70% of JT's 5v5 goals last season came in three months where his iFSh% jumped to double what it was the rest of the season.

Maybe they get on him because Kreider floats and seems to be disengaged all the time. He hasn't really improved in 3 seasons. He is older than Miller and has significantly more NHL experience. Meanwhile Miller always seems to give 100%, continuously improves and is younger.

Is it really that outrageous to say that I don't think JT will score 20 goals in both of the upcoming seasons of his contract all things considered? I don't think so.

Basically, what you're saying is that you expect a 22 year old to regress. Regardless of this 3 month hot streak, he was a significantly better player and showed improvement in all areas; engagement, physicality, defensively, leadership and obviously on the stat sheet. You think at 22 he has plateaued?

Miller is one of our few young forwards that has consistently improved since entering the NHL. Kreider has basically been the same player for 3 years now (yes, he's more talented than Miller and has a higher ceiling, but his disengagement at his current age and non improvement over 3 years is a major concern) and Hayes (who I think has probably the best potential of the 3) didn't move the needle this year. I'm also one of those that thinks Hayes had a fine season although I know many disagree on here.

Miller, when he's not tossed around like a rag doll like AV tends to do, will very likely be solid player. You can see his confidence and effort every single game. He may get re-upped at 1 year for less than 4MM on his next contract, but basically, you're betting against one of your better young players improving or even remaining the same. This is stupid. It's burned the Rangers in the past and will very likely burn them soon again.

 

[silverfish]

When have the Rangers won on these bridge deals? They lost on pretty much every single one. The only contract they won on was McD. Kreider may be the first one they ever win on and that's not a good thing (and also remains to be seen).

Hagelin, Staal, Girardi, Stepan (this one was a blatant mistake at the time), etc.



Maybe they get on him because Kreider floats and seems to be disengaged all the time. He hasn't really improved in 3 seasons. He is older than Miller and has significantly more NHL experience. Meanwhile Miller always seems to give 100%, continuously improves and is younger.



Basically, what you're saying is that you expect a 22 year old to regress. Regardless of this 3 month hot streak, he was a significantly better player and showed improvement in all areas; engagement, physicality, defensively, leadership and obviously on the stat sheet. You think at 22 he has plateaued?

Miller is one of our few young forwards that has consistently improved since entering the NHL. Kreider has basically been the same player for 3 years now (yes, he's more talented than Miller and has a higher ceiling, but his disengagement at his current age and non improvement over 3 years is a major concern) and Hayes (who I think has probably the best potential of the 3) didn't move the needle this year. I'm also one of those that thinks Hayes had a fine season although I know many disagree on here.

Miller, when he's not tossed around like a rag doll like AV tends to do, will very likely be solid player. You can see his confidence and effort every single game. He may get re-upped at 1 year for less than 4MM on his next contract, but basically, you're betting against one of your better young players improving or even remaining the same. This is stupid. It's burned the Rangers in the past and will very likely burn them soon again.

I'm not sure how to respond to this post. There's a ton of subjective opinion in here, and I know if I post facts to dissuade you, it won't work. So I think we can just call it here? I'm fine with that.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

What makes you believe that Miller will be superior to Stepan?

It depends on how you value defensive players. I think offensive players are worth more and I think he will be a better player than Stepan offensively moving forward.

Maybe "better" isn't the right word. I think Miller will be worth more contractually. Teams shell out for goal scoring wingers (I know you think Miller is going to score 10 goals in each of the next 2 years).

I think Miller will develop very similarly to Okposo.

This doesn't really matter, because the point wasn't who was better. The point was the Rangers are likely making the same mistake they made with Stepan and will now end up paying Miller a fortune or trading him.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

I'm not sure how to respond to this post. There's a ton of subjective opinion in here, and I know if I post facts to dissuade you, it won't work. So I think we can just call it here? I'm fine with that.

I agree with your stats and I'm a huge believer in advanced stats. But at the same time, the Rangers had no help from the blue line this year. Whatsoever, sans Yandle and sometimes McD/McIlrath.

That being said, you're acting like these stats can't improve, or the player can't grow. Yes, his SH% was high, yes a lot of these allude to a potential regression, but I'm of the belief that Miller will continue to improve and grow. He's 22.

Now, Zucc is certainly due for a regression due to his age and how his stats played out last year. If all those stats you posed were in regards to Zucc's upcoming season, I'd fully agree.

You have to comprehend that players can improve. He's 22, not 32. This was his first real, full, NHL season.

 

[silverfish]

It depends on how you value defensive players. I think offensive players are worth more and I think he will be a better player than Stepan offensively moving forward.

Maybe "better" isn't the right word. I think Miller will be worth more contractually. Teams shell out for goal scoring wingers (I know you think Miller is going to score 10 goals in each of the next 2 years).

I think Miller will develop very similarly to Okposo.

This doesn't really matter, because the point wasn't who was better. The point was the Rangers are likely making the same mistake they made with Stepan and will now end up paying Miller a fortune or trading him.

I agree with your stats and I'm a huge believer in advanced stats. But at the same time, the Rangers had no help from the blue line this year. Whatsoever, sans Yandle and sometimes McD/McIlrath.

That being said, you're acting like these stats can't improve, or the player can't grow. Yes, his SH% was high, yes a lot of these allude to a potential regression, but I'm of the belief that Miller will continue to improve and grow. He's 22.

Now, Zucc is certainly due for a regression due to his age and how his stats played out last year. If all those stats you posed were in regards to Zucc's upcoming season, I'd fully agree.

You have to comprehend that players can improve. He's 22, not 32. This was his first real, full, NHL season.

I believe Miller will not score 20 goals in either of the next two seasons. I never said 10. I'm not going to respond to anything else in your post because it's opinion based and I'm not going to sway anyone's opinion on this. Save us both some time this morning

 

[Matz03]

One other thing to consider in the bridge deal or lock them up while young debate is that while a team might be forced to pay up after, they do buyout more UFA year overall by starting with a bridge deal.

JT will be 25 when his bride deal runs out, and still an RFA. If he earns it you sign him to $4.5-$5.5m deal for 6 and then you've got him til 31. At 31 you probably let him walk.

Sign him to $4.25m now for 6 and he's a UFA at 29. Much more valuable at this age and likely costs more to re-up. If he keeps progressing he's costing $5.5-6m so he probably walks at 29.

Now this is all assuming he becomes a 55 point player eventually, someone similar to Brassard, but will he become a center or a winger?

Deciding on going the bridge deal or long term route one must consider many factors, upside, current age, likely peak, etc. I think bridge deals work well for inconsistent players with unknown upside. It's the safe way to go for an organization. If you manage your cap well the $1-2m should've make much difference if you have to pay up later.

 

[Trxjw]

See, I definitely get the bridge with Miller due to his inconsistency if his agents demands long term were crazy.

But if it were possible to lock him up for, say $4-4.25M over 5 years I think that's hard to pass up. Say current deal + 4-5-5 for a $3.9M cap hit.

I mean, Andrew Shaw just signed for that cap hit. People act like a $4M cap hit these days has to be JVR to be a good contract. A good 2nd/3rd line tweener is easily worth $3.9M a year. $3.9M for Miller is only horrifically not worth it if he completely regresses to like a 30 pt level.

In 2 years, if he is still a 2nd/3rd line type complimentary scorer he will probably expect close to $5M. That is borderline not worth it for that role, and if so then you have a good player you developed get traded for scraps due to "wanting too much" a la Hagelin and the team is worse off.

I agree. $4-4.5M is the going rate for a 20G+ scoring winger with size and speed. We look at Kreider, who hasn't really progressed much since his bridge deal, and most seem content with a 5 year deal around that AAV. So even if Miller plateaued right now, you're still getting better than market value.