Confirmed with Link: Miller Gets the Bridge. Two-Years, $2.75 AAV

[Fitzy]

Not sold that this wasn't a fluke year for Miller, so I prefer the bridge.

 

[silverfish]

Not sold that this wasn't a fluke year for Miller, so I prefer the bridge.

Blasphemy!

Jk, welcome to the dark side

 

[Leetch3]

good deal

 

[pld459666]

Not sold that this wasn't a fluke year for Miller, so I prefer the bridge.

This is where my heads at.

 

[Leetch3]

I hate bridge deals but with Miller it made too much sense.

not sure what there is to hate about bridge deals. if more teams used bridge deals instead of handing out over-inflated contracts coming of ELC deals maybe we wouldn't need another lockout every few years

you can pretty much bet that we are a few years away from another lockout and this time the 'hill the league will die on' will be putting a cap on 2nd contracts and forcing everyone to take a bridge deal

 

[darko]

Because maybe he doesn't score 20 goals again in the next two seasons and we can re-sign him for four years after this bridge at $4m if he earns that?

So we get 6 seasons at ~$3.5m AAV rather than signing him to 4 or more seasons today based off one season of performance?

It's a gamble, but it's one that I personally believe will pay off for the Rangers.

Colour me shocked.

 

[darko]

This isn't that great. Miller is going to want $$$ in two years.

Would have preferred him locked up long term somewhere between $3M and $3.5M.

It's a good deal, but not a great one. I know it's a gamble due to his consistency and last year being his first full year, buuuuuuuut...I feel like this is a gamble the Rangers will lose.

I guess we'll see what the whole teams contract situation looks like in two years.

Good luck with that. If we are buying out FA years the price goes north of 4.5

 

[Doctor King Schultz]

Not sold that this wasn't a fluke year for Miller, so I prefer the bridge.

Also makes him easier to trade if they go that route

 

[JHS]

Given his inconsistency a bridge makes sense I guess.

Bridge deals are also why we always look around the league and wonder why "our cap hits don't look like theirs'"

Stepan was actually the guy to skip the bridge but they didn't even do that.

Exactly right. Giving Miller a long term deal would have been risky given his tendency to "disappear" that he's displayed at times in his young career. Two year deal keeps Miller happy and hungry to prove his worth and gives the Rangers plenty of time to clear cap space( see Nash coming off the books that same year) in case JT turns out to be the 25-30 goal scorer we all hope he will be!

 

[Gardner McKay]

This isn't that great. Miller is going to want $$$ in two years.

Would have preferred him locked up long term somewhere between $3M and $3.5M.

It's a good deal, but not a great one. I know it's a gamble due to his consistency and last year being his first full year, buuuuuuuut...I feel like this is a gamble the Rangers will lose.

I guess we'll see what the whole teams contract situation looks like in two years.

As others have said... A bridge for a guy that has been so inconsistent is the right move. Hate the bridge all you want but it is the smart, right move given his inconsistencies.

 

[silverfish]

Colour me shocked.

TRIGGERED!

Here's a rant on Miller that I was going to put on Twitter, but now is going here. Y'all brought this on yourselves

Because really, unless you truly believe that JT Miller is one of the best shooters in the NHL, you have to believe that he's not going to score as much as he did last season unless he changes his game to shoot the puck much, much more.

Among forwards with 1000 minutes played last season, he had the 6th highest individual iFSh%. Rate of all unblocked shots that go into the net. JT Miller. 6th in the league.

Meanwhile, his shot rate was 84th in the league among those same forwards.

It's basic math.

He's going to need to shoot more to make up for his without a doubt incoming shooting percentage downturn to get back to his goal scoring levels from last season. It's just math. Maybe he does that, maybe he doesn't.

This is a good gamble for NYR and I think they're going to win it. If he goes the next two seasons without hitting 20 goals again, then they can re-up him at less than $4m they would've had to today if they ate into his Group III years.

Further, everyone gets on Kreider for his inconsistencies, but JT gets a pass. 70% of JT's 5v5 goals last season came in three months where his iFSh% jumped to double what it was the rest of the season.

The exact numbers are 11 of his 17 5v5 goals came from December through February. His iFSh% during that timeframe was a sizzling 14.86%. 5th in the league in that timespan among players with 20 games played (Miller played 38, and only two players ahead of him of those 4 played more than 30).

He rode a mega hot-wave to a great season, but those three months are serious outliers compared to the rest of the season, and the rest of his career.

Is it really that outrageous to say that I don't think JT will score 20 goals in both of the upcoming seasons of his contract all things considered? I don't think so.

*obligatory I hope he scores 50 for the next two years and shuts me up*

 

[Miller Time NYR]

TRIGGERED!

Here's a rant on Miller that I was going to put on Twitter, but now is going here. Y'all brought this on yourselves

Because really, unless you truly believe that JT Miller is one of the best shooters in the NHL, you have to believe that he's not going to score as much as he did last season unless he changes his game to shoot the puck much, much more.

Among forwards with 1000 minutes played last season, he had the 6th highest individual iFSh%. Rate of all unblocked shots that go into the net. JT Miller. 6th in the league.

Meanwhile, his shot rate was 84th in the league among those same forwards.

It's basic math.

He's going to need to shoot more to make up for his without a doubt incoming shooting percentage downturn to get back to his goal scoring levels from last season. It's just math. Maybe he does that, maybe he doesn't.

This is a good gamble for NYR and I think they're going to win it. If he goes the next two seasons without hitting 20 goals again, then they can re-up him at less than $4m they would've had to today if they ate into his Group III years.

Further, everyone gets on Kreider for his inconsistencies, but JT gets a pass. 70% of JT's 5v5 goals last season came in three months where his iFSh% jumped to double what it was the rest of the season.

The exact numbers are 11 of his 17 5v5 goals came from December through February. His iFSh% during that timeframe was a sizzling 14.86%. 5th in the league in that timespan among players with 20 games played (Miller played 38, and only two players ahead of him of those 4 played more than 30).

He rode a mega hot-wave to a great season, but those three months are serious outliers compared to the rest of the season, and the rest of his career.

Is it really that outrageous to say that I don't think JT will score 20 goals in both of the upcoming seasons of his contract all things considered? I don't think so.

*obligatory I hope he scores 50 for the next two years and shuts me up*

Good post, this is probably exactly why our brass chose to give him a bridge. I like Miller as much as the next guy and if he becomes a shoot first player and is able to put up 20+ the next two seasons that's great because we got him at a bargain and will be in a position to pay him at the end of the deal. The way I see it he would have been looking for 4.5 ish to buy ufa years the people who wanted a long term deal now thinking it would have been a steal are wrong, we may end up paying him around 750k-1mil more on the next deal but that's a gamble in our current cap situation we had to take IMO.

 

[eco's bones]

Miller can wire shots--he sees holes when they're there. Just saying--to me that's a reason why he has a very good shot %.

My concern isn't that he can't reproduce what he did last year---I think he can---it's whether or not he can build on last year and put up even better numbers. I'm not convinced he will. The other thing is he could flesh out his game more--become more of an all situations player. If he can do that--even if he puts up the same kind of numbers he'll be a more valuable player.

All that being said he should be a very valuable player for us for the next several years.

 

[Levitate]

He's not gonna shoot hot all the time and that will hurt him trying to get back to 20 goals again, but if he shot the puck more to make up for it then it might work out. He goes through stretches where he doesn't shoot much and he needs to even that out

 

[Mikos87]

Miller can wire shots--he sees holes when they're there. Just saying--to me that's a reason why he has a very good shot %.

My concern isn't that he can't reproduce what he did last year---I think he can---it's whether or not he can build on last year and put up even better numbers. I'm not convinced he will. The other thing is he could flesh out his game more--become more of an all situations player. If he can do that--even if he puts up the same kind of numbers he'll be a more valuable player.

All that being said he should be a very valuable player for us for the next several years.

You know thus far in the NHL he's had his moments making bad decisions with the puck and defensively.

In other levels, he's shown to be a really good center that plays two-way hockey and goes up against the other teams best player.

JT Miller centered the top line of the last US team to win WJC. He wen't up against Nugent-Hopkins and just shut him down. RNH in 2013 that his. Same RNH that already put up 52 points in 62 games in the NHL one season.

While I don't think he's currently an NHL center.

I think it's intriguing to have Miller someday fill the role he did in every other league he's played in.

Have him and Stepan (who hopefully has a 50%+ performance in the dots) be the defensive match-ups.

While Brassard and Hayes reap offensive zone time.

 

[KingWantsCup]

Dat AAV... Wow.

Would have loved to throw a long term deal at Miller but it is what it is. Nothing to complain about at all.

 

[KingWantsCup]

Not sold that this wasn't a fluke year for Miller, so I prefer the bridge.

Most certainly was not a fluke year. This isn't a Brian Boyle situation. Goals weren't going in off his ass, he was making them happen.

 

[RangerBoy]

The Rangers really don't have much room to give Miller more than a bridge deal. Even if Gorton wanted to give Miller 5 or 6 years at $5M per,where is he finding the money with all of the Rangers current commitments? You can say he will move out money to make it happen,it's easier said than done. Unfortunately.

 

[darko]

He's not gonna shoot hot all the time and that will hurt him trying to get back to 20 goals again, but if he shot the puck more to make up for it then it might work out. He goes through stretches where he doesn't shoot much and he needs to even that out

I can definitely see him have a bigger role and shoot more next season. 135 shots on goal in 82 games. If that number comes close to 200 he'll pot 25 or more.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Most certainly was not a fluke year. This isn't a Brian Boyle situation. Goals weren't going in off his ass, he was making them happen.

What evidence do you have that it wasn't a fluke year? Miller has been continuously inconsistent in his NHL career thus far. Last year was his first solid year. The burden is on him to show that he can replicate that success.

 

[NYRFAN218]

The Rangers really don't have much room to give Miller more than a bridge deal. Even if Gorton wanted to give Miller 5 or 6 years at $5M per,where is he finding the money with all of the Rangers current commitments? You can say he will move out money to make it happen,it's easier said than done. Unfortunately.

How would JT Miller get $5 million coming off a season of 43 points (his only real complete season in the NHL to date)?

Kyle Palmieri, coming off a 57 point - 30 goal season, was 2 years away from UFA and got 5 years at $4.65 million per.

I think people are really overstating what JT would get on a 5 or so year deal. Somewhere between $3.5 and $4 million sounds about right to me. Victor Rask just got a 6 year deal at $4 million per coming off a 48 point season. Same age as Miller, might have 1 less year of pro experience since he only played 10 AHL games in 12-13. Miller has 76 points in 196 NHL games to Rask's 81 in 160.

You can debate whether Miller was worthy of a long term deal with his play which is fine but lets not make it seem like a long term deal was breaking the bank here unless you think Miller down the line is going to regress and not even be a $4 million player 3+ years from now (doubt it).

 

[silverfish]

I can definitely see him have a bigger role and shoot more next season. 135 shots on goal in 82 games. If that number comes close to 200 he'll pot 25 or more.

How many players have increased their shots from one season to another by 48%? What did it do to their goal numbers?

I'd imagine the players that were capable of that saw a major increase in ice time as well. Miller was already playing top-6 minutes.

At his shot rate per 60 from last season (6.57/60 in all situations), which has held somewhat steady in every season Miller has played so it can be seen as his comfort zone rate, Miller would have to log 1826 minutes of ice time next season. 22 per game. A 7 minute increase in time on ice per game from last season. Hell, Stepan only had 18 minutes per game last year. If Miller is playing more than Stepan, there's a big issue.

If he's not going to be on the PK, which he won't, Miller isn't logging 22 a game.

 

[darko]

How many players have increased their shots from one season to another by 48%? What did it do to their goal numbers?

I'd imagine the players that were capable of that saw a major increase in ice time as well. Miller was already playing top-6 minutes.

At his shot rate per 60 from last season (6.57/60 in all situations), which has held somewhat steady in every season Miller has played so it can be seen as his comfort zone rate, Miller would have to log 1826 minutes of ice time next season. 22 per game. A 7 minute increase in time on ice per game from last season.

If he's not going to be on the PK, which he won't, Miller isn't logging 22 a game.

1.6 SOGs per game seems low to me. You want that at 2 or just over 3 which puts him and 164-180 ( I said close to 200 not 200) and that will help offset the drop in shooting % which isn't sustainable.

 

[Mac n Gs]

How many players have increased their shots from one season to another by 48%? What did it do to their goal numbers?

I'd imagine the players that were capable of that saw a major increase in ice time as well. Miller was already playing top-6 minutes.

At his shot rate per 60 from last season (6.57/60 in all situations), which has held somewhat steady in every season Miller has played so it can be seen as his comfort zone rate, Miller would have to log 1826 minutes of ice time next season. 22 per game. A 7 minute increase in time on ice per game from last season.

If he's not going to be on the PK, which he won't, Miller isn't logging 22 a game.

Is it possible that his massive spike from last year's numbers had anything to do with him going from being yo-yoed between Hartford and the 4th line to him being a top-6 forward this year? The truth should lie somewhere in the middle right?

 

[silverfish]

1.6 SOGs per game seems low to me. You want that at 2 or just over 3 which puts him and 164-180 ( I said close to 200 not 200) and that will help offset the drop in shooting % which isn't sustainable.

Sure, you want that, but I think it'd take a massive change in JT's game than what we've seen from him.

Is it possible that his massive spike from last year's numbers had anything to do with him going from being yo-yoed between Hartford and the 4th line to him being a top-6 forward this year? The truth should lie somewhere in the middle right?

The spike in his shooting percentage? Most definitely. The jury is out on whether or not this is the new normal for JT. That's why this is a gamble between the bridge or the no bridge.

Thing is though, is that JT's shooting percentage was basically elite last year. I don't know if JT Miller keeps that up.

So like darko is saying, to maintain his goal total, he's going to need to shoot a lot more.