Injury Report: Micheal Ferland (Upper Body)

[TheBigKahuna]

I wish he'd take a 3yr 18m deal. But if go 4yr and 22-24m if it took that to sign him. I'd frontload that deal though. But realistically, based on the Canes current structure he's a 4-4.5m per player.

 

[RodTheBawd]

What comparables are some of you using to come up with $6M+?

 

[Canes]

Yeah, 6 million is pretty high even on a short term deal given the comparables. He's insane for wanting that or anything north of that number and if some moron GM pays it they're even more insane.

This is someone who really likes Ferland's game and still thinks he's a bit underrated offensively. But there are just too many red flags to overpay him.

 

[raynman]

What comparables are some of you using to come up with $6M+?

Wasn’t that the rumor of the number he was looking for? I think he ends up taking less and stays on with the Canes, especially if they can make the playoffs. It’s obvious they’re heading in the right direction and he can be a big part of a seemingly close knit group.

 

[Lempo]

If he keeps breaking down, he may want to sign himself up before the Free Agency on a settleable contract.

 

[AD Skinner]

I went with 6-7 as an overpayment to get him to agree to short term. Someone I think tweeted that if he'd accept 5x5 it'd be a done deal already... I think that's risky but not enough I wouldn't do it. If he really is asking more than that both sides are in a pickle

 

[Canes]

Most I'd probably go is 4 years, 21-22 million dollars.

But I think he can and will get something like 6/7 and 30/35 million from a desperate GM.

 

[bleedgreen]

If you could agree on what a guy is actually worth. Add a million and a year at least to get him signed as a ufa. That’s the cost of business.

As far as the 6 million number, it seems that’s become the new 4 million. No one knows what he’s asked for but it seems anyone who can score gets close to that. If you think he’s worth 4-5 years he’ll probably get 5-6.

If he would take a four year deal I’d overpay him to take it.

 

[NotOpie]

If you could agree on what a guy is actually worth. Add a million and a year at least to get him signed as a ufa. That’s the cost of business.

As far as the 6 million number, it seems that’s become the new 4 million. No one knows what he’s asked for but it seems anyone who can score gets close to that. If you think he’s worth 4-5 years he’ll probably get 5-6.

If he would take a four year deal I’d overpay him to take it.

It is an interesting thought/discussion. RFAs typically cost more money annually on longer deals, primarily because you are buying out the early UFA years. It does seem that UFAs should get higher AAV for shorter deals.

That said, it is exceedingly hard to justify any contract value in excess of what you're paying Teravainen. Is Ferland even really worth paying what you pay TT for what is likely 30 points less in offensive production. Yes, you could say that the value of his physicality brings him close or at least closer (and I agree with that). Yet you cannot forget that Teravainen plays on the PK, the PP, and by all accounts is damn good defensively.

To me this is what makes this so difficult. Add in Micheal Ferland's near certainty to miss a handful of games and, to me, you get a value at or just below Teuvo's....and likely at a term similar to his.

 

[JCLA]

I don't think there should be a world where Ferland is making more than Turbo

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The most important ability is availability.

As good as Ferland is when he's available, when he's not available, he's pretty bad!

 

[bleedgreen]

It is an interesting thought/discussion. RFAs typically cost more money annually on longer deals, primarily because you are buying out the early UFA years. It does seem that UFAs should get higher AAV for shorter deals.

That said, it is exceedingly hard to justify any contract value in excess of what you're paying Teravainen. Is Ferland even really worth paying what you pay TT for what is likely 30 points less in offensive production. Yes, you could say that the value of his physicality brings him close or at least closer (and I agree with that). Yet you cannot forget that Teravainen plays on the PK, the PP, and by all accounts is damn good defensively.

To me this is what makes this so difficult. Add in Micheal Ferland's near certainty to miss a handful of games and, to me, you get a value at or just below Teuvo's....and likely at a term similar to his.

I just don’t see how suddenly an rfa value is comparable to a ufa value. That scale doesn’t exist in the nhl and hasn’t as long as there’s been free agency. Holding Ferland to TT’s value does not compute. One was rfa. Ufa’s always get overpaid and get extra years. There’s been a couple of lean years and some correction at times but generally speaking if someone is in demand it’s gonna be at least a bit of an overpay. Since when are we scaled that way? TT got paid. Moving on. There’s no line in the sand based off it. Many here think he got underpaid as it is, so holding to that line doesn’t really add up.

I think he got paid appropriately but now has to maintain that standard.

Only thing working in our favor is it seems no one is sure what Ferland’s worth, they just know they’d like him on their team.

 

[NotOpie]

I just don’t see how suddenly an rfa value is comparable to a ufa value. That scale doesn’t exist in the nhl and hasn’t as long as there’s been free agency.

A while back....like last year, I would have totally agreed with this. But we are in new territory where RFAs who are performing are getting paid based on projections of their potential. Also, as each year passes and we have Lucic and Okposo and Backes type of contracts reinforcing what we continue to learn about the wear and tear on aging power players, even the most hidebound of GMs are likely seeing these things. Two time 60 point Willie Nylander gets $7 million. Oft injured Auston Matthews gets over $11 million. Going back a few contract years, Draisaitl gets $8.5 million....as a high performing RFA (which many thought was an outrageous amount, but history is in Leon's favor). The old rules may still apply, just not quite as ironclad as they once were.

Don't get me wrong....I would like us to sign Ferland....just not for 6 years and not for $6 million +. Personally, I don't think it will take that much. I believe the market told us as much at the TDL. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if we've got a standing offer on the table, invited Ferland to do what he needs to do (with the caveat that we're going to continue to look for a similar power forward), and he ultimately finds the marketplace not as forgiving of a place as he might think.

In the end, we have a salary budget to manage. It likely still contains an internal cap number. If you plug Ferland in at $6 million for X number of years, you're getting 40 to 45 points and 20 goals plus a hell of a physical presence. We still need another solid goal scorer. It would be nice to get an offensively capable 2C. Ferland at $5 million over 4 or 5 years works with that budget in my opinion. Even then, we almost certainly will have to ship out a salary like Justin Faulk's. But the real reason is that even in year 3 of a Ferland deal, a drop off in performance will matter to this team.

 

[Borsig]

I don't understand the mentality that we have to ship out faulk to pay ferland.
If fans are attending we shouldnt be cheap. I'm sick of this bargain basement bullshit.

Darlings boat anchor alone would pay most of ferland.

Make Carolina great again.

But he does seem to be made of glass

 

[NotOpie]

I don't understand the mentality that we have to ship out faulk to pay ferland.
If fans are attending we shouldnt be cheap. I'm sick of this bargain basement bull****.

Darlings boat anchor alone would pay most of ferland.

Make Carolina great again.

But he does seem to be made of glass

Not bargain basement bullshit, just reality....we won't be a salary cap team until we have consistent attendance above where it is now. Even then, I think we'll rarely be near the cap. I've said in other threads, I can see Dundon spending $70-$73 million in salaries and maybe even go up to $75 million. Let's assume 4 or 5 things. We can all agree that Aho's gonna get paid. Personally, I think that easily comes in at $9.5 million (maybe more). J-Willy is almost certainly getting re-signed and I generously think that's coming in around $4 million. Necas will be on the team next year, so that's around $900K. If we keep the same goaltending tandem, we're almost certainly paying $4 million to $5 million for the pair. Lastly, there's almost no scenario where we don't buy out Darling, which costs us a little over $1.2 million.

If my math is correct, that's 18 players signed for almost $71 million. If Ferland get's signed for let's say $5.25 million and McGinn, Maenalanen, and McKegg (or other 4th liners) are signed, that's another $8 million or so. I just don't see us spending at that level. That is also another reason that it wouldn't surprise me if we pick one of Mrazek or McElhinney to re-sign and go with Nedeljkovic as the back up next season.

The reason to ship out Faulk, isn't just to pay Ferland, it's to balance the spending across the forwards and the defense. If you slot in $5 million to $6 million for a Top 6 forward, it really tips the scale.

 

[bleedgreen]

Well the thought was adding Faulk’s money to a forward PLUS Ferland. We shipped out a lot of talent and only brought Ferland in. Yes we have Nino but we already had Nino’s money in form of Rask. That’s not an “add”. That shouldn’t count as adding salary at forward.

 

[Ole Gil]

I think I like the flexibility it gives the team letting Ferland walk. He's a solid 20-20 guy, but next year, it's time for Svech to move into the top 6.

Willy, Aho, Nino, Jordan, TT, Svech.

With Necas, McGinn, Martinook, Foegele, and the rest, plus any rookies in the bottom 6.

PLUS whatever trading a great d-man gets you.

This isn't the same as yesteryear when they let Cullen go, and brought in Belanger. Or Cole was replaced by Stewart/Ponikarovsky. Svechnikov is going to be an upgrade, hopefully, a huge one.

 

[Roboturner913]

this is gonna sound like the hottest of taeks, but I'm OK with it, and I'm being serious: Other than being a little bit nastier/fighting, is there anything Ferland does that Maenelanen couldn't do?

 

[RodTheBawd]

Lastly, there's almost no scenario where we don't buy out Darling, which costs us a little over $1.2 million.

How does the buyout work again during a lockout?

this is gonna sound like the hottest of taeks, but I'm OK with it, and I'm being serious: Other than being a little bit nastier/fighting, is there anything Ferland does that Maenelanen couldn't do?

I've been on the Saku bandwagon since his first game up, but I think there's a pretty damn big gap between the 2 currently.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

this is gonna sound like the hottest of taeks, but I'm OK with it, and I'm being serious: Other than being a little bit nastier/fighting, is there anything Ferland does that Maenelanen couldn't do?

Make others afraid for their internal organs?

 

[bleedgreen]

A while back....like last year, I would have totally agreed with this. But we are in new territory where RFAs who are performing are getting paid based on projections of their potential. Also, as each year passes and we have Lucic and Okposo and Backes type of contracts reinforcing what we continue to learn about the wear and tear on aging power players, even the most hidebound of GMs are likely seeing these things. Two time 60 point Willie Nylander gets $7 million. Oft injured Auston Matthews gets over $11 million. Going back a few contract years, Draisaitl gets $8.5 million....as a high performing RFA (which many thought was an outrageous amount, but history is in Leon's favor). The old rules may still apply, just not quite as ironclad as they once were.

Don't get me wrong....I would like us to sign Ferland....just not for 6 years and not for $6 million +. Personally, I don't think it will take that much. I believe the market told us as much at the TDL. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if we've got a standing offer on the table, invited Ferland to do what he needs to do (with the caveat that we're going to continue to look for a similar power forward), and he ultimately finds the marketplace not as forgiving of a place as he might think.

In the end, we have a salary budget to manage. It likely still contains an internal cap number. If you plug Ferland in at $6 million for X number of years, you're getting 40 to 45 points and 20 goals plus a hell of a physical presence. We still need another solid goal scorer. It would be nice to get an offensively capable 2C. Ferland at $5 million over 4 or 5 years works with that budget in my opinion. Even then, we almost certainly will have to ship out a salary like Justin Faulk's. But the real reason is that even in year 3 of a Ferland deal, a drop off in performance will matter to this team.

I don’t necessarily disagree with any of this, I just don’t agree that you can now easily compare what an rfa makes vs what a ufa makes, and that there needs to be a line in the sand about Ferland based off of what TT makes. I do agree it’s a weird time and value is getting interesting to quantify. I’m not lining up to overpay Ferland, and I do agree that his value has “hopefully” taken a hit so we don’t have to pay as much as thought before.

I just think ufa prices are what they are, and you dance if you want to dance. My feelings about Ferland and what we signed up for when we traded for him are well over stated.

 

[bigman]

Is he even playing tonight

 

[bleedgreen]

this is gonna sound like the hottest of taeks, but I'm OK with it, and I'm being serious: Other than being a little bit nastier/fighting, is there anything Ferland does that Maenelanen couldn't do?

That’s a stretch, Ferland hasn’t been scoring really since moving away from Aho but he’s shown here and before he’s a pretty legit shooter at the NHL level. I’m not sure what melatonin has going on there.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Ferland would have to take a massive hometown discount or me to even consider him, and he's simply not going to do that. You can see why he's so adamant about getting *paid* this summer. His shelf-life is not good, and I'll be glad to allow another club to overpay for him.

 

[Wolfpuck]

I love his heart and effort, but with the recurring injuries, there's no way in hell I'm giving him the term he would want.