Michael Grabner

[Sheva7]

The stats based off of a small sample size of ice time? Okay.

Edit: I see it's from years ago as well. His previous years have no bearing on what he's done this year and what he'll do going forward.

It'll never be perfect, but considering the sample size, I'd say it's a pretty damn good indicator of what he can do going forward - that's if he actually played and wasn't scratched every other night!

 

[AndThereGoesGrabner*]

Its really very simple, guys like Kennedy, Moulirat, Clutterbuck, and even Martin shouldn't be playing ahead of Grabner when he is healthy. Capuano single handedly may have ruined Grabners development as a player. When we see him scoring 20-25 goals a year on the Detroit Red Wings, we can thank CRAPPY for that. Grabner is a perfect fit on the Red Wings.

 

[PK Cronin]

It'll never be perfect, but considering the sample size, I'd say it's a pretty damn good indicator of what he can do going forward - that's if he actually played and wasn't scratched every other night!

He's gotten statistically worse in each of those season, in terms of production.

.46 ppg in the lockout year
.40 ppg in 2013-14
.38 ppg this season

He also sported a .41 the year before the lockout, so it might be reasonable to conclude that his ppg production was high that year (considering how streaky he is).

He's been hurt most of this season, and I'm sure that has affected his game, but he does not possess the kind of talent that would force a coach to deal with him re acclimating to the game after an injury. He isn't the same player this season as years past, and he hasn't been close to his offensive numbers since hitting that 30 goal mark years ago.

Its really very simple, guys like Kennedy, Moulirat, Clutterbuck, and even Martin shouldn't be playing ahead of Grabner when he is healthy. Capuano single handedly may have ruined Grabners development as a player. When we see him scoring 20-25 goals a year on the Detroit Red Wings, we can thank CRAPPY for that. Grabner is a perfect fit on the Red Wings.

His development as a player? He's 27. He's developed. Grabner is what he is at this point. He's been in the NHL for 5+ years now, and he's surpassed the 20 goal mark one time. Once. To think a player who is 27 is going to routinely start potting 20-25 goals every year, while possibly being injury prone, is a bit of a stretch.

The team's depth has gotten better, and therefore he's become more expendable. He's not some guy that absolutely must be iced game after game. He simply does not fit in with this team this year and the system they try to play.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Its really very simple, guys like Kennedy, Moulirat, Clutterbuck, and even Martin shouldn't be playing ahead of Grabner when he is healthy. Capuano single handedly may have ruined Grabners development as a player. When we see him scoring 20-25 goals a year on the Detroit Red Wings, we can thank CRAPPY for that. Grabner is a perfect fit on the Red Wings.

He does not possess the ability the 4th line requires. Grabner wears no one out, unlike the entire 4th line. His only possible resting spot is one of the other three lines. Which one of them does he displace? Because when he doesn't score, he pretty much adds nothing except PK ability, and as long as I have followed the NHL, that's not a sought after commodity except on the crappiest of clubs. The failings of our own PK? Squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff. We have too much talent for it to be anything else but. However, 5 on 5, again, if he isn't scoring, he is pretty invisible except for the odd hit he throws out of nowhere.

Put him on the 4th line? A really bad move, about as bad as making Tavares the goaltender, or Boulton the 1st line center.

 

[Tavares2TheRescue]

He's gotten statistically worse in each of those season, in terms of production.

.46 ppg in the lockout year
.40 ppg in 2013-14
.38 ppg this season

He also sported a .41 the year before the lockout, so it might be reasonable to conclude that his ppg production was high that year (considering how streaky he is).

He's been hurt most of this season, and I'm sure that has affected his game, but he does not possess the kind of talent that would force a coach to deal with him re acclimating to the game after an injury. He isn't the same player this season as years past, and he hasn't been close to his offensive numbers since hitting that 30 goal mark years ago.



His development as a player? He's 27. He's developed. Grabner is what he is at this point. He's been in the NHL for 5+ years now, and he's surpassed the 20 goal mark one time. Once. To think a player who is 27 is going to routinely start potting 20-25 goals every year, while possibly being injury prone, is a bit of a stretch.

The team's depth has gotten better, and therefore he's become more expendable. He's not some guy that absolutely must be iced game after game. He simply does not fit in with this team this year and the system they try to play.

You're using the wrong numbers there bud. The only "decline" going on there has been in his ice time, not his production. For the same seasons you mentioned:

1.9 P/60 in the lockout year
1.6 P/60 in 2013-14
1.9 P/60 ppg this season

I'm not sure what's so hard to understand here. I'm not even mentioning the word "Corsi" , just goals and points, things everyone accepts and understands.

Not sure why you don't think he can be a regular 20 goal scorer. For the past three years, Grabner's cumulative even strength G/60 is 0.96. At that rate, if he were to get 14 minutes a game, that translates to 18.5 goals over an 82 game season. And that's just even strength goals; throw in some power play time and he's easily over 20.

 

[PK Cronin]

You're using the wrong numbers there bud. The only "decline" going on there has been in his ice time, not his production. For the same seasons you mentioned:

1.9 P/60 in the lockout year
1.6 P/60 in 2013-14
1.9 P/60 ppg this season

I'm not sure what's so hard to understand here. I'm not even mentioning the word "Corsi" , just goals and points, things everyone accepts and understands.

Not sure why you don't think he can be a regular 20 goal scorer. For the past three years, Grabner's cumulative even strength G/60 is 0.96. At that rate, if he were to get 14 minutes a game, that translates to 18.5 goals over an 82 game season. And that's just even strength goals; throw in some power play time and he's easily over 20.

You're assuming he maintains the same pace with increased minutes. That's an incredibly generous assumption given how streaky of a scorer he is. Throwing PP time at a player who isn't good on it, that's a great way to make the team better!

 

[Tavares2TheRescue]

He does not possess the ability the 4th line requires. Grabner wears no one out, unlike the entire 4th line. His only possible resting spot is one of the other three lines. Which one of them does he displace? Because when he doesn't score, he pretty much adds nothing except PK ability, and as long as I have followed the NHL, that's not a sought after commodity except on the crappiest of clubs. The failings of our own PK? Squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staff. We have too much talent for it to be anything else but. However, 5 on 5, again, if he isn't scoring, he is pretty invisible except for the odd hit he throws out of nowhere.

Put him on the 4th line? A really bad move, about as bad as making Tavares the goaltender, or Boulton the 1st line center.

That's hilarious. Michael Grabner "does not posses the ability the 4th line requires"? Because everyone knows the 4th line is only for guys with tons of skill and ability. That's why it's reserved for highly skilled players like Matt Martin and Tanner Glass.

The notion that 4th liners have to play a grinding, dump and chase role stems from the fact that there are 30 teams in the league, a salary cap, and not enough talented players to fill every forward spot on every team. Thus, the lesser-skilled players play a role that seeks to limit the damage while they're out there and the better players are resting. The Islanders are lucky enough to have more than enough good players so that they can afford to ice four lines of actually good players.

Also, I don't get how Grabner "wears no one out". I would think that all the players chasing after his ass when he blows by them are getting pretty tired.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

In your opinion. Martin is a solid 4th liner who can play hockey. He also wears down opponents.

I'm assuming that advanced stats point to Grabner being superior over Martin but I wonder how much what Martin does contribute to overall team success.

I also think Martin is a solid fourth liner who can play hockey. Cizikas too.

But Grabner is a better player and I don't see why lesser players are immune to sitting, lesser players like Martin and Cizikas.

As far as the "wearing opponents down" I have not been introduced to any evidence of that. The other adage attached to players like Martin is that he protects his teammates and opponents are scared to "take liberties". It seems that there is no evidence of that either, but rather quite a bit to the contrary.

Like I said, Martin is a fine player but Grabner is a better one. He is no advanced stats darling like Kennedy either. He is just a good player who is better than Matt Martin and deserves to play some.

 

[BillD]

I am a supporter of using Grabner more, not sitting him.
There is no question that he has not displayed his normal extreme speed burst in his 31 games this that we are used to. Is he slow now? The answer to that is I only wish that Lee, Bailey, Tavares, Strome, Nelson, were as "slow" as Grabner is right now. Folks, Grabner is still a very good skater, still well above average speed, just not the extreme speed we have sen from him in the past. He has blown past a few defensemen who try to close the gap too much on him.

As for other attributes we are missing out on with him anchored to the bench, Grabner has the most active stick on the Islanders team (one of the best I have seen in the NHL). Even at his less than optimum speed, he is a big threat to teams trying to break out or rush through the neutral zone with that combination of speed and active stick.

I expect that he will recover his speed burst, it is a matter of healing and conditioning. he is only 27 years old and has not lost his speed, just temporarily, but is still a useful play when not mis-managed by a coach that seems never to be happy with him.

Wasted talent of a useful player sitting for a slug like Kennedy. Kennedy is fine for what he was intended when Garth got him...injury insurance.

 

[Lame Lambert]

Grabner does not belong on the 4th line, but he should be in for Kennedy.

 

[seafoam]

Its really very simple, guys like Kennedy, Moulirat, Clutterbuck, and even Martin shouldn't be playing ahead of Grabner when he is healthy. Capuano single handedly may have ruined Grabners development as a player. When we see him scoring 20-25 goals a year on the Detroit Red Wings, we can thank CRAPPY for that. Grabner is a perfect fit on the Red Wings.

No he's not, he's a terrible possession player.

He's a perfect fit for Montreal.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Garth must have buyers remorse on that contract by now. What is a one trick pony without his trick?

 

[PWJunior]

It really is this simple. Fast guy gets hurt, comes back less fast.

Grabner held the fort while this team was rebuilding. His rookie year was a treat to watch. I don't expect him back next season and considering that it's the final year of his contract, not a big deal if he does stay.

Hopefully Snow can peddle him to someone thinking that he can recapture that magic of his 30-goal season. You've got to think some GM might take that chance.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Following up on the "matching up against top players" thing:



You can see in that chart from the MIN game that really the most minutes played for Martin were against Haula and Bergenheim.

And he didn't play a single minute against Granlund, their number one center.

That's just one game, but we can pull out more. I think that the "playing against top players" statement is a myth.

I may look into it further and put together a substantial piece of content on it, if folks are interested.

 

[Tavares2TheRescue]

No he's not, he's a terrible possession player.

He's a perfect fit for Montreal.

You see, that's wrong. Here's his relative Corsi numbers for each season of his career:
14-15: -1.8
13-14: +2.2
12-13: -0.8
11-12: -0.8
10-11: +5.8
09-10: +8.2 (only 20 games)

So in his six year career, Grabner's been a positive possession player for half of those seasons. And you'll notice, the seasons where he's positive are more strongly positive than any of the negative seasons are negative. All in all, I wouldn't call Grabner a "possession driver" at all, but to say he's a bad possession player. It's likely that he has a neutral to slightly positive effect on possession. Which is perfectly fine, because he does other stuff well too. I know it might be surprising to hear this from me, but Corsi isn't everything.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I know it might be surprising to hear this from me, but Corsi isn't everything.

He's not a bad possession player though. Guys who aren't elite possession players look worse on a great team, such as this one.

We give Martin and Cizikas the benefit of the doubt on that, why not also Grabner?

 

[A Pointed Stick]

That's hilarious. Michael Grabner "does not posses the ability the 4th line requires"? Because everyone knows the 4th line is only for guys with tons of skill and ability. That's why it's reserved for highly skilled players like Matt Martin and Tanner Glass.

The notion that 4th liners have to play a grinding, dump and chase role stems from the fact that there are 30 teams in the league, a salary cap, and not enough talented players to fill every forward spot on every team. Thus, the lesser-skilled players play a role that seeks to limit the damage while they're out there and the better players are resting. The Islanders are lucky enough to have more than enough good players so that they can afford to ice four lines of actually good players.

Also, I don't get how Grabner "wears no one out". I would think that all the players chasing after his ass when he blows by them are getting pretty tired.

I don't know where my last post went, but I will try again. There is a difference of role, and the effect of that role. The 4th line goes out to wear out the best players on both defense and forward of the other club via physical contact. Your very silly thought about Grabber using his speed to do that is just that, silly, because it has zero basis in reality. If you ever played in a contact league of any kind before, during, or after college I Don't think I would need to Tell you that because you would simply know it And not make such a hilarious statement. I recommend joining a beer league that promotes contact and see the difference. And Grab's breakaways have such a low conversion rate that it muted his ability to contribute there as well, but that is ot ... Our 4th does its job. You don't understand at all what they do or why they do it. I recommend reading up on why before continuing to argue this. If you do, I know you will direct your attention to wondering why he is not inserted on another line, and toi between all 4 lines more evenly distributed. I would agree with that argument, if indeed that is part of your argument.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I also think Martin is a solid fourth liner who can play hockey. Cizikas too.

But Grabner is a better player and I don't see why lesser players are immune to sitting, lesser players like Martin and Cizikas.

As far as the "wearing opponents down" I have not been introduced to any evidence of that. The other adage attached to players like Martin is that he protects his teammates and opponents are scared to "take liberties". It seems that there is no evidence of that either, but rather quite a bit to the contrary.

Like I said, Martin is a fine player but Grabner is a better one. He is no advanced stats darling like Kennedy either. He is just a good player who is better than Matt Martin and deserves to play some.

If this was 1972, I'd say that having a player to scare opponents and serve as a policeman of sorts would be relevant. Those days are long gone so I agree with you that Martin isn't there to make sure players don't "take liberties."

It would be hard to provide any data or analytics on how players like Martin and Clutterbuck wear opponents down. But these guys throw a lot of body checks. I believe more than anyone in the league. That's got to take a toll on an opponent during the course of the game. And the best part is that they take the body so much but are rarely out of position.

Disagree that Grabner is automatically a "better player." He has more offensive weapons and obviously is a lot faster. That by itself creates more offense. But he is a bigger liability and makes us much softer.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I don't know where my last post went, but I will try again. There is a difference of role, and the effect of that role. The 4th line goes out to wear out the best players on both defense and forward of the other club via physical contact.

First, this is not true. I pointed it out above. They never even saw Granlund the other night, the first line center for Minnesota.

Notably, Granlund was completely dominated by our first line despite never having to be "worn out" by Martin and company.

Admittedly that sample size is small, but you'd have to say that the Minnesota game was an aberration to maintain that position.

Second, I don't know why there is so much need to insult people personally around here. You have no idea the level of play that Tavares2therescue has played at. Even still, it is totally irrelevant. None of us are NHL players and the NHL level is far different. I know from experience as well how important wearing people down with checks really is, I am one of those "checking" players. However, I am also able to recognize that in the NHL it may not make all that much of a difference.

I'm truly tired of seeing this sort of "I played the game, you didn't; go play it" argument being made. No one here has any clue as to the level of play that anyone else has achieved. It is wholly unfair to use it as some trump card, which it is not.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

If this was 1972, I'd say that having a player to scare opponents and serve as a policeman of sorts would be relevant. Those days are long gone so I agree with you that Martin isn't there to make sure players don't "take liberties."

I don't think there are a lot of folks who still think that. I just say it to make sure it gets said. Maybe I'm wrong though, never know what people believe or not.

It would be hard to provide any data or analytics on how players like Martin and Clutterbuck wear opponents down. But these guys throw a lot of body checks. I believe more than anyone in the league. That's got to take a toll on an opponent during the course of the game. And the best part is that they take the body so much but are rarely out of position.

I'll tell you D, I'm open to this being true. I'm working on something and I'll give you first look when I have my scheme laid out. Since you're already a believer in the "wear down" thesis it is better that way because you'll have the skeptics eye that I want for a project like this.

I will say this though, it does not appear that the fourth line is playing top competition. If they aren't playing top competition, does it really even matter?

 

[Doshell Propivo]

First, this is not true. I pointed it out above. They never even saw Granlund the other night, the first line center for Minnesota.

Notably, Granlund was completely dominated by our first line despite never having to be "worn out" by Martin and company.

Admittedly that sample size is small, but you'd have to say that the Minnesota game was an aberration to maintain that position.

Second, I don't know why there is so much need to insult people personally around here. You have no idea the level of play that Tavares2therescue has played at. Even still, it is totally irrelevant. None of us are NHL players and the NHL level is far different. I know from experience as well how important wearing people down with checks really is, I am one of those "checking" players. However, I am also able to recognize that in the NHL it may not make all that much of a difference.

I'm truly tired of seeing this sort of "I played the game, you didn't; go play it" argument being made. No one here has any clue as to the level of play that anyone else has achieved. It is wholly unfair to use it as some trump card, which it is not.

Minnesota doesn't have a true "#1" line. Shoot, you could argue that their Vanek line is their top line now. Regardless, I don't think that the job of the 4th line is to match up against the opposing teams top line shift after shift. That's impractical. But they will "wear down" the opposition - whoever may be on the ice. That is most certainly their job and I'd argue that our 4th line does it better than anyone.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Minnesota doesn't have a true "#1" line. Shoot, you could argue that their Vanek line is their top line now. Regardless, I don't think that the job of the 4th line is to match up against the opposing teams top line shift after shift. That's impractical. But they will "wear down" the opposition - whoever may be on the ice. That is most certainly their job and I'd argue that our 4th line does it better than anyone.

That's a bit of a backstep though right? Earlier it was said (not by you) that they wear down opposing team's top players. The Granlund-Pominville-Parise line is clearly top players. They barely saw them.

If the position is that they wear out teams, that may be true; but there appears to be no truth to the notion that they play against the top competition.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I will say this though, it does not appear that the fourth line is playing top competition. If they aren't playing top competition, does it really even matter?

See my post above. Define "top competition." The "norm" in hockey has been that your top two lines are your scoring lines, your third line is your checking line that you try to match up against the biggest scoring threat the opponent has and your 4th line are your bangers.

And I'd argue, yes, it still matters that they wear down the competition even if they're not out against the top line shift after shift. It all takes its toll over the course of 60 minutes.

 

[Doshell Propivo]

That's a bit of a backstep though right? Earlier it was said (not by you) that they wear down opposing team's top players. The Granlund-Pominville-Parise line is clearly top players. They barely saw them.

If the position is that they wear out teams, that may be true; but there appears to be no truth to the notion that they play against the top competition.

I never said that the 4th line wears down the opposing teams' #1 line.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

See my post above. Define "top competition." The "norm" in hockey has been that your top two lines are your scoring lines, your third line is your checking line that you try to match up against the biggest scoring threat the opponent has and your 4th line are your bangers.

And I'd argue, yes, it still matters that they wear down the competition even if they're not out against the top line shift after shift. It all takes its toll over the course of 60 minutes.

I just pulled out QoC, 17-53 face the lowest by possession:

By goals for/against:

By shots for/against:

I mean, we can change the definition of top competition; but it only weakens the point made by the other poster. Either you think they're matched up against the top competition, or they're not. The stats indicate they are not and it is pretty easily provable.