Phenomenon13
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2011
- 2,479
- 496
Interesting analysis. First of all I feel the need to mention that correlation doesn't equal causation. Secondly the 80s, 90s, and early 00s were such a different era it would be more interesting to look at the post-lockout data.
When you do that, only 2 out of the 13 cup winners since the lockout also won the president's trophy. One of those was Chicago during the lockout shortened season so if you remove that it becomes 1 out of 12 which is about 8%. Compare that with the raw odds of winning the stanley cup assuming every team has an equal 1 in 16 chance, that works out to 6%.
So if you take the post-lockout numbers, the difference between the president's trophy winner and any other random seed in the playoffs is the difference between 8% and 6%, in other words, a 2% difference, aka basically no difference at all.
That's an interesting analysis. I feel the need to mention that having a small sample size reduces the power of a study and increases the margin of error which can render the results meaningless. There is definitely causation. Having a good team causes a team to have more wins which causes a team to have a better record in the standings. I don't see why you would remove all those teams and discredit their cup wins from the analysis, all NHL teams played under the same rules did they not?
That 6% chance would only be true if all teams were weighted the same like a lottery draw but it's not. Better teams get seeded higher and have a higher chance of winning. Since the adoption of the playoff seeding system in 1994 to the re-alignment of 2014, a top 3 seeded team won the cup every year except for New Jersey in 1995/2000, Pittsburgh in 2009 and LA in 2012. Almost every cup winner during this era was at least a division winner. The Presidents' Trophy winner made the Stanley Cup Final eight times during this span (NYR 1994, DET 1995, DAL 1999, COL 2001, DET 2002,DET 2008, VAN 2011, CHI 2013), claiming the Cup every time but twice (DET 1995, VAN 2011). Better teams win more games and cause a higher seeding in the standings. This is simple logic and common sense.
Edit: didnt realize I was replying to a troll
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