MGMT Thread. The long, dark offseason of our discontent begins...

Status
Not open for further replies.

Phenomenon13

Registered User
Oct 10, 2011
2,479
496
Interesting analysis. First of all I feel the need to mention that correlation doesn't equal causation. Secondly the 80s, 90s, and early 00s were such a different era it would be more interesting to look at the post-lockout data.

When you do that, only 2 out of the 13 cup winners since the lockout also won the president's trophy. One of those was Chicago during the lockout shortened season so if you remove that it becomes 1 out of 12 which is about 8%. Compare that with the raw odds of winning the stanley cup assuming every team has an equal 1 in 16 chance, that works out to 6%.

So if you take the post-lockout numbers, the difference between the president's trophy winner and any other random seed in the playoffs is the difference between 8% and 6%, in other words, a 2% difference, aka basically no difference at all.

That's an interesting analysis. I feel the need to mention that having a small sample size reduces the power of a study and increases the margin of error which can render the results meaningless. There is definitely causation. Having a good team causes a team to have more wins which causes a team to have a better record in the standings. I don't see why you would remove all those teams and discredit their cup wins from the analysis, all NHL teams played under the same rules did they not?

That 6% chance would only be true if all teams were weighted the same like a lottery draw but it's not. Better teams get seeded higher and have a higher chance of winning. Since the adoption of the playoff seeding system in 1994 to the re-alignment of 2014, a top 3 seeded team won the cup every year except for New Jersey in 1995/2000, Pittsburgh in 2009 and LA in 2012. Almost every cup winner during this era was at least a division winner. The Presidents' Trophy winner made the Stanley Cup Final eight times during this span (NYR 1994, DET 1995, DAL 1999, COL 2001, DET 2002,DET 2008, VAN 2011, CHI 2013), claiming the Cup every time but twice (DET 1995, VAN 2011). Better teams win more games and cause a higher seeding in the standings. This is simple logic and common sense.

Edit: didnt realize I was replying to a troll
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Upoil

y2kcanucks

Le Sex God
Aug 3, 2006
71,229
10,319
Surrey, BC
You mean regarding Yzerman?

Which dominoes are you thinking of, @Y2K? Canucks management changes?


Yes, regarding Yzerman. He obviously wasn't going anywhere while Tampa was on a playoff run, so now that is over we'll see if he stays in Tampa, goes to Detroit, or goes elsewhere (Vancouver?)

If he goes to Detroit, then Holland is a candidate to come here obviously. If he remains in Tampa, Holland likely stays in Detroit and that's one less option for the Canucks. I'm very interested in how the next week or two goes down.
 

Peter10

Registered User
Dec 7, 2003
4,193
5,042
Germany
God he’s such a troll why hasn’t he been banned yet? Isn’t fake arguments against the rules here?

But being dumb is not and since it can be rather difficult to decide if some if trolling or just not very smart I guess it is allowed. *Dislaimer: This is just a general statement and has nothing to do with the poster in question.

One disappointing thing I've found is that it seems more people here just want to shoot fish in a barrel than have a real discussion with honest people.

Honestly though, what is left to discuss in the management thread? Nobody can really deny that the Canucks are run by a seriously underqualified guy who should have no business to be anywhere near a front office position. He is there because of the OBC and because the NHL is rewarding incompetence to some extend. I try not to ignore any user and take RMB as a comic relief, he isnt anything else. There is only one user I have on ignore and that is someone who is posting nothing but stupid one liners in what seems to be a weak attempt of potraying a simple minded 12 year old. Other than that, topics just get unreadable if you only see half of it.
 

tantalum

Hope for the best. Expect the worst
Sponsor
Apr 2, 2002
25,127
13,973
Missouri
Will they have problems with cap? Maybe someone good has to leave. Point and kucherov need to be re-signed I believe.

Point has to be signed but Kucherov is signed through 24-25, but his big raise takes effect next season (sane with Gourde)

Other free agents are Erne, Corelli, and Martel up front. All the forwards are RFA . The blueline has Stralman, Girardi and Coburn as UFAs.

They will need to move salary.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
But being dumb is not and since it can be rather difficult to decide if some if trolling or just not very smart I guess it is allowed. *Dislaimer: This is just a general statement and has nothing to do with the poster in question.



Honestly though, what is left to discuss in the management thread? Nobody can really deny that the Canucks are run by a seriously underqualified guy who should have no business to be anywhere near a front office position. He is there because of the OBC and because the NHL is rewarding incompetence to some extend. I try not to ignore any user and take RMB as a comic relief, he isnt anything else. There is only one user I have on ignore and that is someone who is posting nothing but stupid one liners in what seems to be a weak attempt of potraying a simple minded 12 year old. Other than that, topics just get unreadable if you only see half of it.

There are plenty of things we could be discussing, management's objectives for this offseason, the expectations we have, etc. Every time I attempt to start a legit discussion it basically gets buried under fifty people snacking the low hanging fruit and piling on RMB.

It's like trying to discuss US politics when all anyone wants to do is make fun of the latest dumb thing Trump said. People just want to feel superior by constantly engaging with the dumbest shit they can find instead of trying to actually have an intelligent discussion.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
The top-level Cup competition(s) (mostly UEFA Champions' League) get a lot of attention because it is the top teams from each league, so it is a big deal. Within the individual leagues, though, the season champion is viewed as the title-holder (like Leicester City a while back) whereas the cup tournaments are side competitions and definitely aren't as big a priority, but obviously teams like to win them. For the record, I really like the idea of multiple distinctions throughout a season as waaaay fewer games are meaningless and there is always something you can try to set your sights on.

I was making the more general point, though, that it's kind of fundamentally unrealistic to say that the team that plays better over a longer stretch of time isn't a "real" champion, whereas the team that survives a shorter knockout tournament is.

I wonder what people would think about having like a 30 game season for seeding and then a massive f***ing tournament where everyone participates (there will be 32 teams soon) and is comprised of five rounds of best of 11 or something.
 

Canucks LB

My Favourite, Gone too soon, RIP Luc, We miss you
Oct 12, 2008
76,795
29,404
f***kk
Just read the jumbo quote today oh my f***ing God
 

ProstheticConscience

Check dein Limit
Apr 30, 2010
18,459
10,107
Canuck Nation
Everyone and his dog can see this chump coming a mile away. GOD I want him gone.

And seriously, lol @ the stuff about Tampa. "Hey, look! Something really improbable happened, therefore probability is invalid! Just because it's unlikely doesn't mean it can't happen!" Yeah. Sure. But the likely thing still happens more often, and the methods most often used to produce the most likely outcomes will also still happen more often. The best regular season teams will always tend to be the best post season teams as well. Uh...they're actually better teams. Yes, it can happen that the best lose spectacularly early on. But that in no way shape or form invalidates good teams being more likely to be the ones moving on. If you think for a second that it's okay Benning built a crap team that (if everything breaks perfectly) might barely squeak into the playoffs because hey, a #8 seed just beat Tampa then you're so totally out to lunch I've probably ignored you for months.

Because then you might have already moaned about how hard it is to find top 4 dmen but for some reason complain about how Gillis didn't leave the team stacked with half a dozen of them in the prospect pool while picking at the very back of the pack. And that's just plain silly.
 

Melvin

21/12/05
Sep 29, 2017
15,198
28,055
Montreal, QC
tcu-baseball.jpg
 

Trelane

Registered User
Feb 12, 2013
1,987
42
Salusa Secundus
Pretty much. Everyone - with the exception of a few paid shills and possibly family members - knows that if Jim Benning had been hired by Aquilini as GM to manage the Canucks back in 2008 with the exact same group of players that Gillis had at his disposal... he would not have done anywhere near as good of a job as Gillis did.


No need for shills or family to know that absent parallel universe no one can say for certain. Most Benning to Gillis comparisons are a waste of time since they inherited teams at opposite ends of the development /compete cycle. What Gillis was gifted continues to be underappreciated here.


To recap: Burkie-Nonis built what became the 2009-2015 powerhouse, save for that one Torts parachuted in year. In 2007-08 the Nucks were merrily in playoff position until suffering then unprecedented D core annihilation and collapsing in the last quarter.

Aqua overreacted, Nonis walked the plank, and Gillis won the GM lottery by inheriting a turn-key contender. Prime or younger Sedins, Kesler, Burrows, Hansen, Luongo, Schneider, Edler, Bieksa and the older but highly effective Salo and Mitchell.

FOUR YEARS later--useful to keep in mind when asking what JB did in a similar time frame--the above players comprised 7/8 of his top scorers (Higgie was #7). Ehrhoff, Samuelsson, Malhotra and Torres were gone or non factors for that second President trophy. Of the better MG acquisitions only the determined to come home Hamhuis remained. Same year the discarded Mitchell was a 1st pairing D for the cup winning Kings.

Not such a stretch to say anyone taking that gig and doing the bare minimum, like re-signing the twins and others (could be less thrifty if foregoing Ballard deal), would have seen a similar outcome. Drafting? Zero top 6/4 players that were deployed as such during the 6 year tenure.

Meanwhile, Benning's inheritance: Burkie-Nonis remnants, mostly 30+ year-olds determined to finish their careers in Van and with Gillman provided paperwork in pocket to enforce it. Gillis' contributions were the infants Horvat (green jacket candidate early), Hutton (debatable top 4 on good team), and a goalie who turned into starter material at 29. Your basic guaranteed multi year, dirt-eating exercise for any exec that jumped on it.

If the argument is that Gillis would have improved his drafting than who is to say Benning can't up his FA signing game?

Realistic time frame: See Winnipeg since their inception under Chevy. Note the pieces he inherited that are still doing the heavy lifting. Had some draft lottery luck. Missed playoffs 5 of first 6 first seasons and was a GM of the year finalist soon after.


But I could be wrong. Maybe this GM thing is mostly about sounding smart, cutting edge analytics, best shrinks and space age medical gizmo money can buy, and being progressive. Doubtless the next guy running the Nucks will be a smart cookie. The fact that our big 3 are currently 2 years younger than Colorado's big 3 will be a footnote.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Numba9

me2

Go ahead foot
Jun 28, 2002
37,903
5,595
Make my day.
It proves Benning has successfully completed his search for a defenseman who can walk the line for the fourth time.

I like how you asked me questions and answered them yourself. I'm don't need to try to say anything, if I want to say something, I'll just type it out as I've always had.

This isn't empty "criticism", I'm "applauding" Benning for his "success" in finding a defenseman who can "walk the line". There's nothing to "catch" Benning in a "gotcha" moment because there is no "contradiction" and I've made no assertions that Benning is contradicting himself. I'm just pointing out Benning is very "successful" at his job. If you think about it for more than 5 seconds, Benning has continually thrown assets for years to find defenseman with a specific trait for practically the entire tenure of his general management career and has finally succeeded "again".
The great thing about Jim is he's been around long enough that he's survived so long his first batch of failures have timed out and his 2nd batch of failures have timed out, and he's now on his 3rd batch. From the JimFans point of view it is like the 1st two batches didn't exist because they are gone.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jyrki21

Intangibos

High-End Intangibos
Apr 5, 2010
7,807
3,370
Burnaby
If the argument is that Gillis would have improved his drafting than who is to say Benning can't up his FA signing game?

The argument isn't that Gillis would have improved his drafting, but that he was improving the scouting staff. It is not a GM's job to scout juniors. It is a GM's job to hire staff, provide a roadmap and assemble the pieces. Gillis was improving his drafting by hiring new scouts to replace the quite literally bottom of the barrel staff we had at the start of his tenure and one of the ways we can see this by one of his hires as our current head of scouting.

Hiring new people is quite a bit different than suddenly learning how to build a hockey team.
 

valkynax

The LEEDAR
Sponsor
May 19, 2011
10,105
10,905
Burnaby
Once again the "Gillis had it easy" and "Poor Jimmy got f***ed right from the start oh poor him he never got a break" argument.

Here's the thing: expectations were VASTLY different between these 2 GMs. One was expected to make team into serious contender, the other is expected to help the team rebuild.

One met expectations, the other fell face first into a pile of rotten garbage - repeatedly.

Half a decade later, Gillis is still the whipping boy for little Jimmy's incompetence.
 

Bleach Clean

Registered User
Aug 9, 2006
27,055
6,624
Just watched the DET presser. Holland's messaging is eerily similar to Benning's own. Blames injures, targets the playoffs while rebuilding and talks about age as a requirement to winning. It's bad.

I'm not expecting a revelation with a potential Holland hire. I do expect some things to improve, like the acquisition of picks, but on the whole it will be a similar message... I can see why people do not want an old boy's club retread. Same message, different face.
 

Pastor Of Muppetz

Registered User
Oct 1, 2017
26,186
16,075
Once again the "Gillis had it easy" and "Poor Jimmy got ****ed right from the start oh poor him he never got a break" argument.

Here's the thing: expectations were VASTLY different between these 2 GMs. One was expected to make team into serious contender, the other is expected to help the team rebuild.

One met expectations, the other fell face first into a pile of rotten garbage - repeatedly.

Half a decade later, Gillis is still the whipping boy for little Jimmy's incompetence.
The poster was replying to a post that claimed that JB would have botched a 'ready made powerhouse core'..He's not absolving JB for his 5 years of work..Merely pointing out what each GM inherited.

One,..met expectations, then completely lost the plot.. "Ehrhoff, Samuelsson, Malhotra and Torres were gone or non factors for that second President trophy."

"Same year the discarded Mitchell was a 1st pairing D for the cup winning Kings".

Furthermore,..as to Gillis improving his scouting staff, every player the Canucks drafted after Horvat in 2013 ..busted..Imagine, after 6 years of drafting, if Gillis didnt draft Horvat.?.He would have been practically skunked.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad