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Pre-Game Talk: MDSF: (1) Washington Capitals vs (WC2) Philadelphia Flyers

Yoshidas Island

Yoshidas Island

TY for the memories Yosh :'(
Jan 2, 2015
2,703
665
Since I'm still new to the whole Flyers thing, my Twitter feed has absolutely no Flyer info on it. Does anyone have a good list of Flyers: Journalists, insiders, statistical people, etc people to follow? Much appreciated!
 
OzFlyers

OzFlyers

Registered Boozer
Jul 3, 2011
2,505
1,359
Australia
Who is that suppose to be for the Flyers?? (edit Ghost - looks nothing like him!)

cut.jpg
 
flountown

flountown

Registered User
Dec 30, 2008
1,434
35
Philadelphia
So, I take issue with the Vegas odds makers and hang with me for a moment why I tell you why. First I'll list some basic probabilities that were put forth by certain #fancystats people and then state why they differ a bit and source their much longer explanations of their prediction models. (Note: I won't include the super hopeful SAP model and I'll include an article I found detailing why it might be a bit bad statistics-wise)

First, a quick chart with the numbers I promised as well as some raw stats they may be predictive of playoff success:

Zu1T3PZ.png


The first two numbers are the predictive models from Moneypuck and HockeyViz. These link to their model methodology and factors that they build in. I think the main reason the MP is a few percentage points less optimistic is how far back it's data goes. Although it does decay the importance of Game1 vs Game82, it still includes a lot more less flattering numbers in relation to the Flyers. The Oscar model from HockeyViz is exclusive to the last 25 games played which as I will link in some references down below tends to be fairly predictive of playoff success as the season closes.

The other numbers in the chart were included because of the following tweet and I think from the green highlights you can see that the Flyers and Caps split these 4 categories, but Score Adjusted Fenwick For% in the last 25 games has the best series results of those stats.


https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/719342591637131264

My final analysis would be to average the models and FF% which ended up with the Flyers at 48%. I don't really know the best way to value the other 4 categories, and since my original analysis was to try and determine how good of a value bet the Flyers would be in a series with their money line at +245 last time I checked (Conclusion: pretty good value if you believe the info above)

Bonus Pic of HockeyViz % of PHI/WAS Game by Game Series Winning Chances:
83rA589.png


Article crapping on SAP Analytics(I WANT TO BELIEVE THOUGH): https://statsbylopez.com/2015/05/20...ons-in-the-national-hockey-league-postseason/

I also promised an article on the 25 game Score Adjusted Fenwick, but I am having trouble finding it at the moment. I will edit this post if I can find it.
 
Winston Wolf

Winston Wolf

Registered User
May 15, 2003
12,103
6,740
Philadelphia
flountown said:
So, I take issue with the Vegas odds makers and hang with me for a moment why I tell you why. First I'll list some basic probabilities that were put forth by certain #fancystats people and then state why they differ a bit and source their much longer explanations of their prediction models. (Note: I won't include the super hopeful SAP model and I'll include an article I found detailing why it might be a bit bad statistics-wise)

First, a quick chart with the numbers I promised as well as some raw stats they may be predictive of playoff success:

Zu1T3PZ.png


The first two numbers are the predictive models from Moneypuck and HockeyViz. These link to their model methodology and factors that they build in. I think the main reason the MP is a few percentage points less optimistic is how far back it's data goes. Although it does decay the importance of Game1 vs Game82, it still includes a lot more less flattering numbers in relation to the Flyers. The Oscar model from HockeyViz is exclusive to the last 25 games played which as I will link in some references down below tends to be fairly predictive of playoff success as the season closes.

The other numbers in the chart were included because of the following tweet and I think from the green highlights you can see that the Flyers and Caps split these 4 categories, but Score Adjusted Fenwick For% in the last 25 games has the best series results of those stats.


https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/719342591637131264

My final analysis would be to average the models and FF% which ended up with the Flyers at 48%. I don't really know the best way to value the other 4 categories, and since my original analysis was to try and determine how good of a value bet the Flyers would be in a series with their money line at +245 last time I checked (Conclusion: pretty good value if you believe the info above)

Bonus Pic of HockeyViz % of PHI/WAS Game by Game Series Winning Chances:
83rA589.png


Article crapping on SAP Analytics(I WANT TO BELIEVE THOUGH): https://statsbylopez.com/2015/05/20...ons-in-the-national-hockey-league-postseason/

I also promised an article on the 25 game Score Adjusted Fenwick, but I am having trouble finding it at the moment. I will edit this post if I can find it.
Click to expand...

I have a stats class this summer, I know who to IM if I need help. ;)

Thanks for putting that altogether; this series will be interesting.
 
flountown

flountown

Registered User
Dec 30, 2008
1,434
35
Philadelphia
Winston Wolf said:
I have a stats class this summer, I know who to IM if I need help. ;)

Thanks for putting that altogether; this series will be interesting.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the kind words, but I am still a newbie when it comes to statistics in the academic sense. Compiling the tireless work of others and trying to point out high level differences is easy enough.

There's another sub forum in HFBoards that would be more helpful with the nitty gritty. I am still trying to teach myself and find myself there occasionally although not in a while.

Feel free to hit me up to chat about the basics, but it's hard to find the motivation to sit down and read up on pystat and r or try to read articles on why p values and r^2 values are predictable or unreliable or reliable all at the same time. It kind of goes over your head when learning about data sets that don't interest you.
 
JojoTheWhale

JojoTheWhale

CORN BOY
May 22, 2008
33,780
105,367
flountown said:
So, I take issue with the Vegas odds makers and hang with me for a moment why I tell you why. First I'll list some basic probabilities that were put forth by certain #fancystats people and then state why they differ a bit and source their much longer explanations of their prediction models. (Note: I won't include the super hopeful SAP model and I'll include an article I found detailing why it might be a bit bad statistics-wise)

First, a quick chart with the numbers I promised as well as some raw stats they may be predictive of playoff success:

Zu1T3PZ.png


The first two numbers are the predictive models from Moneypuck and HockeyViz. These link to their model methodology and factors that they build in. I think the main reason the MP is a few percentage points less optimistic is how far back it's data goes. Although it does decay the importance of Game1 vs Game82, it still includes a lot more less flattering numbers in relation to the Flyers. The Oscar model from HockeyViz is exclusive to the last 25 games played which as I will link in some references down below tends to be fairly predictive of playoff success as the season closes.

The other numbers in the chart were included because of the following tweet and I think from the green highlights you can see that the Flyers and Caps split these 4 categories, but Score Adjusted Fenwick For% in the last 25 games has the best series results of those stats.


https://twitter.com/JonathanWillis/status/719342591637131264

My final analysis would be to average the models and FF% which ended up with the Flyers at 48%. I don't really know the best way to value the other 4 categories, and since my original analysis was to try and determine how good of a value bet the Flyers would be in a series with their money line at +245 last time I checked (Conclusion: pretty good value if you believe the info above)

Bonus Pic of HockeyViz % of PHI/WAS Game by Game Series Winning Chances:
83rA589.png


Article crapping on SAP Analytics(I WANT TO BELIEVE THOUGH): https://statsbylopez.com/2015/05/20...ons-in-the-national-hockey-league-postseason/

I also promised an article on the 25 game Score Adjusted Fenwick, but I am having trouble finding it at the moment. I will edit this post if I can find it.
Click to expand...


In general, Vegas is not trying to be predictive of success. They're trying to get even money from the public on both sides of the ledger. In some cases, there is attempted manipulation of the public and this is much more common in both early lines and with bigger books -- the former because doing so later would be blatantly illegal and the latter because they can assume the risk more easily.

If you have any questions as to why a generic Vegas or in some cases a specific book does something, I can be of uncommon help there. Feel free to PM me anytime.
 
Teezax

Teezax

Registered User
Nov 25, 2002
6,771
86
Montreal
flyersphan20 said:
i don't believe anyone on ESPN at least picked us to beat Pittsburgh in 2012
Click to expand...

Noone giving us a snowball's chance in hell will only be another motivating factor for our team. The Pitts series is the one that comes to mind where the circumstances were similar, I still remember the panel interviewing G with that news and we saw how he played in that round. Hoping for the same result.
 
YEM

YEM

Registered User
Mar 7, 2010
5,718
2,697
flountown said:
and since my original analysis was to try and determine how good of a value bet the Flyers would be in a series with their money line at +245 last time I checked (Conclusion: pretty good value if you believe the info above)
Click to expand...
I think if you fancy the flyers in this series from a gambling perspective, just bet them on the moneyline every game as they'll be a dog every game & even if they lose the series, say 4-2, you may break even...
 
Rebels57

Rebels57

Former Flyers fan
Sponsor
Sep 28, 2014
76,750
123,305
TheKingPin said:
Makes it look like east vs west. Hey should be glaring at eachother in the commence.
Click to expand...

Those caricatures are all pretty awful tbh. Only a few look like the players they are depicting. Jagr looks like he is crying. Tarasenko looks like..christ I dont know what he looks like.
 
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