News Article: McGuire: "Habs are in trouble"

[Deebs]

Love how it's shaping up. Getting rid of the older players. We have a lot of young forwards up front and we are shedding salary at the same time. Solid summer so far with room to still make moves.

It's really turning into a nice group....

25 & under

Drouin 22-----------$5.5M AAV
Galchenyuk 23------$4.9M AAV
Shaw 25------------$3.9M AAV
Gallagher 25--------$3.75M AAV
Danault 24----------$.913M AAV
Lehkonen 22--------$.840M AAV

Total-----------------$19.8M

 

[Adriatic]

It's really turning into a nice group....

25 & under

Drouin 22-----------$5.5M AAV
Galchenyuk 23------$4.9M AAV
Shaw 25------------$3.9M AAV
Gallagher 25--------$3.75M AAV
Danault 24----------$.913M AAV
Lehkonen 22--------$.840M AAV

Total-----------------$19.8M

Now that I think of it, even Pacioretty and Price are still in their 20's.

 

[HabsFather]

It's really turning into a nice group....

25 & under

Drouin 22-----------$5.5M AAV
Galchenyuk 23------$4.9M AAV
Shaw 25------------$3.9M AAV
Gallagher 25--------$3.75M AAV
Danault 24----------$.913M AAV
Lehkonen 22--------$.840M AAV

Total-----------------$19.8M

i have to agree future does look bright.

 

[Ginu]

Isn't Duchene just 26?... hmm

 

[scrubadam]

I'll beg to differ. You still have a select number of teams having won it more than once and within a short span. As for the cheap contracts vs. those being doled out now to superstar players, we can only know their true impact when the new CBA is negotiated.

I am just saying that we are getting out of that era. I don't see another Hawks/LA with the way salaries are going. Pens are still there but they won't win every year.

TOR/EDM and other upcoming teams won't have the same advantages we saw with the latest multi cup winners where they can stack their team due to the back diving contracts or young players signing sweetheart deals. I think we are going to see in the near future more parity when it comes to cup champs.

But the next CBA will shine some light on things. If I was the players I would push hard for a franchise tag. This will artificially increase the cap even if they have to take a lower % of HRR.

 

[WatchfulElm]

I never get these "5 years window" talks that everybody seem to agree with.

Sure, it's logical to be in "win now" mode because many of our assets are in their prime. And if our drafting is bad between 2015 and 2020, approx, then yes, the window will close. But all we need is 3 or 4 draft picks to reach their ceiling, and this team would once again be a contender in 5 years.

In 5 years, Price should logically still be a top goalie. Drouin, Galchenyuk, Lehkonen and Danault will be in their prime. Weber could still be an efficient defenseman.

Sure, Pacioretty might have slowed down, as well as Petry and Alzner. The rest is just a supporting cast that can be easily replaced.

Now imagine that the 2017 draft was a home run, and that Ikonen suddenly becomes the number 1 offensive center we were waiting for, while Poehling becomes an excellent 2-way center similar to Kesler. Mete becomes an offensive, power play specialist while Juulsen becomes a very reliable #3 D. Then Habs go on and draft 2 or 3 more good players between 2018 and 2020.

I mention these prospects but they could be other ones. All Timmins has to do is to hit 2 or 3 homeruns like he has in the past, and the window will still be open in 5 years. The future is impossible to predict, and I don't believe you can forecast the closing of a window.

 

[DJ Breadman]

Why do people keep lumping Shaw in with a bright future? Hahah he's a 30 point guy at max he will never be better than that.

 

[le_sean]

Why do people keep lumping Shaw in with a bright future? Hahah he's a 30 point guy at max he will never be better than that.

Like it or not he's still here for 5 more years so he's part of the core. He did score 20 goals before, so it's possible for him to contribute more.

 

[Runner77]

I am just saying that we are getting out of that era. I don't see another Hawks/LA with the way salaries are going. Pens are still there but they won't win every year.

TOR/EDM and other upcoming teams won't have the same advantages we saw with the latest multi cup winners where they can stack their team due to the back diving contracts or young players signing sweetheart deals. I think we are going to see in the near future more parity when it comes to cup champs.

But the next CBA will shine some light on things. If I was the players I would push hard for a franchise tag. This will artificially increase the cap even if they have to take a lower % of HRR.

Isn't the franchise tag what they're doing in the NFL?

In terms of more parity, we've seen that being projected before but you're always going to find a GM who is able to find a way to get the most out of the team he puts together regardless of the system in place. Just like when they said the trap would die when the red line was removed.

 

[Runner77]

Why do people keep lumping Shaw in with a bright future? Hahah he's a 30 point guy at max he will never be better than that.

Yeah, he's part of decor. He's a third liner who provides low offense. He's a complementary player. Just cause he's 25 doesn't make him better than he his.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's really turning into a nice group....

25 & under

Drouin 22-----------$5.5M AAV
Galchenyuk 23------$4.9M AAV
Shaw 25------------$3.9M AAV
Gallagher 25--------$3.75M AAV
Danault 24----------$.913M AAV
Lehkonen 22--------$.840M AAV

Total-----------------$19.8M

Now that I think of it, even Pacioretty and Price are still in their 20's.

i have to agree future does look bright.

I've noticed the same thing. Too many people are looking at what we don't have and not looking at what we have. Add the future to our young core.

Young core: Galchenyuk, Drouin, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Lehkonen

Older Core: Price, Patch, Weber. Weber is 32 this year and is the oldest part of our core. Not worried about him till he reaches his mid 30's and then we have to re evaluate.

Future Prospects: Hudon, McCarron, DLR, Scherbak, Lernout, Juulsen, Mete, Addison, Bitten, Poehliing, Ikonen, Brook, Walford, Fleury. That's 14 potential NHL'ers making our team in the next 5 years and this does not include any surprises.

Were not doomed like some think we are.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Why do people keep lumping Shaw in with a bright future? Hahah he's a 30 point guy at max he will never be better than that.

Points is not what Shaw brings to the table. He's great to have in the middle or bottom of the line-up if you ask me (he can play LW, C, or RW). Only issue I have is dump penalties. Julien won't put up with that for too long

 

[Puck Luck Run Amok]

Or maybe they're just giving their honest opinion on things?

For years I heard Leaf fans moan about how every media outlet was against them blind to the fact that their team was being run into the ditch. Those same stations now regularly praise the team because they've put an exciting team together.

Don't blame the messenger.

100% True. I lived in LeafLand at the time and many believed there was a conspiracy, Kessel was a "franchise" player and Kadri was perceived to be a #1C and Dion wasn't declining at all! (Sound familiar?)

The Habs will be a bubble playoff team AT BEST. No Cups in the 514 for another 5 years at the very least.

 

[S Bah]

Weber is a freak of nature, athlete's with his stature combined with talent & poise are very few & far between. Another Dman, Lernout could very well be a great player, he has the required stature, skating & poise IMHO!!!... Not saying he's another Weber, he's got the tools to be a very good 3rd or 4th with upside in development maybe more, IMHO!!!...

The Habs have a great core group of athletes, when considering Pacioretty, Price, Weber, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Lehkonen, &*Drouin* just added. Then many good Dmen prospects, along with Poehling & Ikonen that could surprise many of Us here, just sayin!!!...

 

[Runner77]

100% True. I lived in LeafLand at the time and many believed there was a conspiracy, Kessel was a "franchise" player and Kadri was perceived to be a #1C and Dion wasn't declining at all! (Sound familiar?)

The Habs will be a bubble playoff team AT BEST. No Cups in the 514 for another 5 years at the very least.

There's no two ways about it, they're going to need a bona fide top 6 center. And a first pairing D.

 

[Luigi Habs]

Shaw is 25? He looks and plays like a 32yrs old

 

[scrubadam]

Isn't the franchise tag what they're doing in the NFL?

In terms of more parity, we've seen that being projected before but you're always going to find a GM who is able to find a way to get the most out of the team he puts together regardless of the system in place. Just like when they said the trap would die when the red line was removed.

I think the NBA and NFL have a franchise tag. Imagine the oilers could franchise McDavid and his 12.5 didn't count against the cap. They could then sign a Radu and Bonino with a million to spare. This artificially increases the cap because whatever you franchise is not going to count. So more money to spend. We all know the owners are going to try and reduce HRR in the next CBA negotiations, and the players will eventually accept it. So they should look at ways to artificially increase the cap without touching HRR%.

There will be smart owners, but when cap is limited it becomes harder to build a consistent winning team. CHI/LA/PENS benefited from having a lot to spend on their lower players because of the good deals their stars had. With the way contracts are going stars will get paid younger and younger. And then you can't afford a "Kessel" at 6 Mill on the 3rd line anymore instead your playing a Hudon there.

 

[Adriatic]

I've noticed the same thing. Too many people are looking at what we don't have and not looking at what we have. Add the future to our young core.

Young core: Galchenyuk, Drouin, Gallagher, Lehkonen, Lehkonen

Older Core: Price, Patch, Weber. Weber is 32 this year and is the oldest part of our core. Not worried about him till he reaches his mid 30's and then we have to re evaluate.

Future Prospects: Hudon, McCarron, DLR, Scherbak, Lernout, Juulsen, Mete, Addison, Bitten, Poehliing, Ikonen, Brook, Walford, Fleury. That's 14 potential NHL'ers making our team in the next 5 years and this does not include any surprises.

Were not doomed like some think we are.

Habs will be a solid team for years to come.

 

[Runner77]

I think the NBA and NFL have a franchise tag. Imagine the oilers could franchise McDavid and his 12.5 didn't count against the cap. They could then sign a Radu and Bonino with a million to spare. This artificially increases the cap because whatever you franchise is not going to count. So more money to spend. We all know the owners are going to try and reduce HRR in the next CBA negotiations, and the players will eventually accept it. So they should look at ways to artificially increase the cap without touching HRR%.

There will be smart owners, but when cap is limited it becomes harder to build a consistent winning team. CHI/LA/PENS benefited from having a lot to spend on their lower players because of the good deals their stars had. With the way contracts are going stars will get paid younger and younger. And then you can't afford a "Kessel" at 6 Mill on the 3rd line anymore instead your playing a Hudon there.

It's a great idea. They should also introduce an equalizer formula to take into account tax bites from different jurisdictions.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's a great idea. They should also introduce an equalizer formula to take into account tax bites from different jurisdictions.

If the NHL focus is parity, this is a great idea!

 

[Fish on The Sand]

I'll beg to differ. You still have a select number of teams having won it more than once and within a short span. As for the cheap contracts vs. those being doled out now to superstar players, we can only know their true impact when the new CBA is negotiated.

The thing is, no team has won any cups, nevermind multiple cups, without the benefit of the cap circumventing contracts done away with in the last CBA. Pens wouldn't be able to put together their superstar group of forwards without Crosby's artificially low cap hit, and the Blackhawks wouldn't have been able to keep both Toews and Kane if not for the hilarious Hossa and keith contracts.

You wouldn't see guys like Price and McDavid signing for these huge cap hits if teams could still hand out 12-13 year deals.

 

[Runner77]

The thing is, no team has won any cups, nevermind multiple cups, without the benefit of the cap circumventing contracts done away with in the last CBA. Pens wouldn't be able to put together their superstar group of forwards without Crosby's artificially low cap hit, and the Blackhawks wouldn't have been able to keep both Toews and Kane if not for the hilarious Hossa and keith contracts.

You wouldn't see guys like Price and McDavid signing for these huge cap hits if teams could still hand out 12-13 year deals.

The Hawks did however not pay their supporting cast as much as most other teams. They had something like 12 or 13 contracts with a $1M or less cap hit, which gave them more room to pay their better players.

Did the Kings also have cap circumventing contracts on their Cup wins? I can't say I've followed this aspect very closely. I'm surprised more GMs didn't rebel against it.

 

[get25]

It's really turning into a nice group....

25 & under

Drouin 22-----------$5.5M AAV
Galchenyuk 23------$4.9M AAV
Shaw 25------------$3.9M AAV
Gallagher 25--------$3.75M AAV
Danault 24----------$.913M AAV
Lehkonen 22--------$.840M AAV

Total-----------------$19.8M

The year before MB came in:
Cole, Cammy, Gionta, Gomez, Darche, Moen, Bourque

Also in defense: Spacek, Gill and Kaberle.

 

[ECWHSWI]

The year before MB came in:
Cole, Cammy, Gionta, Gomez, Darche, Moen, Bourque

Also in defense: Spacek, Gill and Kaberle.

obviously you'd omit all the players under 25 in the "under 25" list...

no Subban ?
no Price ?
no Pacioretty ?

 

[WG]

The Hawks did however not pay their supporting cast as much as most other teams. They had something like 12 or 13 contracts with a $1M or less cap hit, which gave them more room to pay their better players.

Did the Kings also have cap circumventing contracts on their Cup wins? I can't say I've followed this aspect very closely. I'm surprised more GMs didn't rebel against it.

The Kings traded for two such contracts, both signed by Philly, Jeff Carter and Mike Richards had 11 and 12 year contracts, resp. Their other key players like Doughty, Kopitar, etc were on their first deals out of ELC. Quick has a 10-year deal signed in 2012, it's not as egregious as Keith, Hossa etc, his highest yearly salary is 7M, the cap hit is a little under 6 due to some 2-3M years at the end.