Matthews vs Pastrnak vs Laine (aka Ovi light)

Who will be the best goalscorer?


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danpantz

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Mar 31, 2013
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So even though last season Pastrnak did outscore Matthews by 1 total goal, would you also say the same thing about him if he was compared today with Ovechkin?

Why would I compare him to Ovechkin in a thread about Matthews, Laine and Pasta?
 

LeafsNation75

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Jan 15, 2010
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Why would I compare him to Ovechkin in a thread about Matthews, Laine and Pasta?
I'm saying even though Pastrnak did outscore Matthews last season by 1 goal and it was also by 1 goal in the previous two seasons, they are still close enough to where you can not say 100% without a doubt that he's a better goal scorer.

That's why I asked if you would say the same thing if he was now better than Ovechkin?
 

danpantz

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I was responding to someone who said that matthews was “without a doubt” the better goal scorer.

Ovi literally has nothing to do with comparing these players.
 

Advanced stats

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May 26, 2010
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Player X is going to score more goals than Player Y because he scores less goals is even dumber

If a player scores 30 goals a season but only plays 60 games a year versus a guy who scores 31 in 82 and they play the same length career who will end up scoring more goals?
First of all, the question was "who will be the best goalscorer". That's a different question than "who willl score the most goals. The best goal scorer can be indicated by goals per game.


Secondly, based on your logic, in this scenario, player X and player Y are equal

2019
Player X: 40 goals
Player Y: 2 goals

2020
Player X: 1 goal
Player Y: 2 goals


It's absolutely faulty when you break it down by seasons as you did. Even with your breakdown Matthews has more goals.
 

danpantz

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Mar 31, 2013
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First of all, the question was "who will be the best goalscorer". That's a different question than "who willl score the most goals. The best goal scorer can be indicated by goals per game.


Secondly, based on your logic, in this scenario, player X and player Y are equal

2019
Player X: 40 goals
Player Y: 2 goals

2020
Player X: 1 goal
Player Y: 2 goals


It's absolutely faulty when you break it down by seasons as you did. Even with your breakdown Matthews has more goals.

It's also faulty when you break it down by goals per game over a different sample sizes and say things like "Anyone not voting Matthews is flat out wrong." When one of the three players has outscored him over the last two seasons while playing less games.

And Pasta has more goals in his career but I care more about how they are playing recently when judging players.

You're saying it's flat out wrong to vote for the guy with more goals in less games in the last two seasons for best goal scorer, I disagree with that. I think you can make an argument for Pasta or Matthews without trying to flat-out dismiss the other.
 

PAZ

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Jul 14, 2011
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Pastrnak is the best at creating goal scoring opportunities and will score the most goals in the next 1-2 years until Marchand and Bergeron fall off. Matthews is the best overall shooter and will score the most in his career. Laine has the best one-timer, but I don't think he's in this conversation unless he finds himself next to an elite playmaker.

Honestly, this comes down to teammates more than anything else.
 

The Beyonder

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The one skill thing that makes his shot just more deadly is how he is able to drag inside into a shot. Hard to defend that as both a d-man and a goalie because he's able to get around sticks and change his angle on net but still comes off his blade like a rocket.



 

Advanced stats

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May 26, 2010
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Pastrnak's 14 ATOI with two PP goals total in his first two seasons might not be valuable to your data.
Sure, let's eliminate data to suit the player.

Is there a reason you didn't show the numbers with the first 2 seasons eliminated?
I did do it, and I can tell you Matthews wins handily.
Want something mindblowing? Eliminate Matthews first 2 seasons and see how scewed the numbers are
 
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LeafsNation75

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And Pasta has more goals in his career but I care more about how they are playing recently when judging players.
Pastrnak's rookie season was in 2014-15 and Matthews rookie season was in 2016-17. So obviously he would have more career goals than Matthews at this point and that's a weak argument to make based on that fact.
 

Advanced stats

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May 26, 2010
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It's also faulty when you break it down by goals per game over a different sample sizes and say things like "Anyone not voting Matthews is flat out wrong." When one of the three players has outscored him over the last two seasons while playing less games.

And Pasta has more goals in his career but I care more about how they are playing recently when judging players.

You're saying it's flat out wrong to vote for the guy with more goals in less games in the last two seasons for best goal scorer, I disagree with that. I think you can make an argument for Pasta or Matthews without trying to flat-out dismiss the other.
Why are you dismissing this season? Doesn't fit the narrative?
 

danpantz

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Mar 31, 2013
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Pastrnak's rookie season was in 2014-15 and Matthews rookie season was in 2016-17. So obviously he would have more career goals than Matthews at this point and that's a weak argument to make based on that fact.

Read the last part of my post you quoted
 

danpantz

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Mar 31, 2013
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Why are you dismissing this season? Doesn't fit the narrative?

This season where pasta has 5 goals in 4 games? Okay sure.

Over the last 3 seasons (including this one)
G/gp
Pasta - .65
Matthews - .63

Or would you like to switch to totals?

I didn't include this season because It's a tiny sample size.
 

VoluntaryDom

Formerly DominicBoltsFan / Ⓐ / ✞
Oct 31, 2016
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as overall players, id go matthews>=pasta>>>>>>>>>>>>>laine
as goal scorers id still go matthews.
 

danpantz

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Mar 31, 2013
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I did and my point is you still took the time to mention how Pastrnak has more goals scored at this point in his career. So I stand by my previous comment.

So you just ignored when I said "but I care more about how they are playing recently when judging players?"
 

HarryLime

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Jun 27, 2014
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All 3 deserve to be mentioned. Laine hasn't been as consistent as Matthews/Pasta but those that have seen him, know the potential is there.
 

Maplebeasts

I See Demons!!!!!
Oct 26, 2014
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Barrie, Ontario
When they were both healthy last year who scored more goals again in the same amount of games played?
And the year before that, when they both got hurt and one player played 2 more games but scored one less goal, who scored more that season?
Ok so Pastrnak managed to score only one goal more each season over the last 2 years despite having 2 elite linemates (to Matthews one, and only for 47 games last season) and over 80 minutes TOI more on the powerplay. The question is who is the better goal scorer. When accounting for everything including context it is pretty clearly Matthews.
 

danpantz

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Mar 31, 2013
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Ok so Pastrnak managed to score only one goal more each season over the last 2 years despite having 2 elite linemates (to Matthews one, and only for 47 games last season) and over 80 minutes TOI more on the powerplay. The question is who is the better goal scorer. When accounting for everything including context it is pretty clearly Matthews.

Ah yes the more PP ice time argument. I always forget that those goals don't count. Oh wait.

Why not mention that Pastrnak scored at an extremely similar rate at 5v5 than Matthews at 1.52 g/60 versus matthews 1.56 g/60 but Matthews played 166 more 5v5 minutes. But Pasta's Goals/60 on the PP were much higher than Matthews. And since neither of them killed penalties last season, why not mention that Pastas Goals/60 at all strengths are 2.17 versus Matthews 1.92.

And Using Matthews linemates as an excuse is rich. I'd love to see his Quality of competition numbers when compared to Pasta when teams also need to matchup against the Tavares line.
 

Critical13

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Feb 25, 2017
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Ah yes the more PP ice time argument. I always forget that those goals don't count. Oh wait.

Why not mention that Pastrnak scored at an extremely similar rate at 5v5 than Matthews at 1.52 g/60 versus matthews 1.56 g/60 but Matthews played 166 more 5v5 minutes. But Pasta's Goals/60 on the PP were much higher than Matthews. And since neither of them killed penalties last season, why not mention that Pastas Goals/60 at all strengths are 2.17 versus Matthews 1.92.

Just out of curiosity, if you could take either player, no contract/noise included, who would you take?
 

danpantz

Registered User
Mar 31, 2013
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Just out of curiosity, if you could take either player, no contract/noise included, who would you take?

Matthews, he plays center and scores a lot of goals.

Doesn't mean Pasta isn't his equal in terms of goal scoring right now.
 

Maplebeasts

I See Demons!!!!!
Oct 26, 2014
20,812
12,492
Barrie, Ontario
Ah yes the more PP ice time argument. I always forget that those goals don't count. Oh wait.

Why not mention that Pastrnak scored at an extremely similar rate at 5v5 than Matthews at 1.52 g/60 versus matthews 1.56 g/60 but Matthews played 166 more 5v5 minutes. But Pasta's Goals/60 on the PP were much higher than Matthews. And since neither of them killed penalties last season, why not mention that Pastas Goals/60 at all strengths are 2.17 versus Matthews 1.92.

And Using Matthews linemates as an excuse is rich. I'd love to see his Quality of competition numbers when compared to Pasta when teams also need to matchup against the Tavares line.
These are all fair points. We're just going to have to wait and see if Pastrnak is still scoring goals at this level when either one of Marchand or Bergeron decline.
 

danpantz

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Mar 31, 2013
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These are all fair points. We're just going to have to wait and see if Pastrnak is still scoring goals at this level when either one of Marchand or Bergeron decline.

Fair enough. The future is very unpredictable, it's impossible to account for things like injuries and teammate decline, or changes in coaches who make bad personnel decisions, It's all projection at this point.
 

Advanced stats

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This season where pasta has 5 goals in 4 games? Okay sure.

Over the last 3 seasons (including this one)
G/gp
Pasta - .65
Matthews - .63

Or would you like to switch to totals?

I didn't include this season because It's a tiny sample size.
You literally said goals per game was faulty.
 
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