Speculation: Matthews/Leafs closing in on new contract

[SprDaVE]

Sure, I'm fine with that, the problem is that we're giving him the same or higher percentage and NOT GETTING THE TERM.

That is a loss in every conceivable manner. If he's taking less term he should get less money, simple as that. We are buying LESS UFA years. You know...the years that count the most because they are the most expensive and potentially problematic.

Crosby, Malkin, Kane and Toews all signed 5 year deals on their 2nd contract for comparable cap percentages (if not more). Want to guess how that worked out for them? Hint: multiple cups. Tavares signed a 6 year deal in his 2nd contract.

The idea to sign a lower term deal is to maximize cap efficiency for those years and then properly evaluate the cap over that term. If you can save about 2-3M on Matthews and Marner because they sign 5-6 year deals instead of 8 year deals, that means we can fit in an extra player or two.

 

[ACC1224]

Aslong as it isn't a 6 year deal. Matthews + Tavares becoming UFA at the same time could turn out quite problematic

Don't see why, seems like perfect timing.
They should try and avoid Marner and Matthews coming up at the same time though.

 

[Romkey]

Having both Leafs #1C ending up as UFA at the same time might not be ideal situation.

You know who else comes off his contract the next year? That fella in Edmonton. Can't remember his name though

 

[Bomber0104]

Aslong as it isn't a 6 year deal. Matthews + Tavares becoming UFA at the same time could turn out quite problematic

We may not want to re-sign Tavares at that time anyway. There's no telling what kind of player he's going to be 6 seasons from now.

We need Auston on a six year deal , 100%

Could be faced with a lockout during these deals so the more term the better.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Anything less than 6 years is an epic failure.

I’d rather 6 years x 12 mil than 5 years x 10/11 mil

 

[zeke]

Anything less than 6 years is an epic failure.

I’d rather 6 years x 12 mil than 5 years x 10/11 mil

but why

 

[Legion34]

I love how mirtle speculates that Matthews was just waiting to sign a fair deal...... but then dubas decided to sign Nylander instead. NONE of this yearstop RFAs signed this summer.

Matthews is coming off a third injury and his worst month as a leaf. Yep nows the time he gets the best deal possible.

He is literally, publically saying that he wants to keep the team together. What that means to him in terms of discount is yet to be seen but come on....... 40 games and another injury just completely changed things?

 

[ACC1224]

You know who else comes off his contract the next year? That fella in Edmonton. Can't remember his name though

Watched him in Montreal on Sunday and he does not look like the same player that I've seen in the past.
Still the same explosiveness but he didn't seem to have the enthusiasm for the game.
That Team looks like it's starting to wear on him.

 

[Mess]

You know who else comes off his contract the next year? That fella in Edmonton. Can't remember his name though

As Leaf fans getting a franchise #1C like Matthews, I'm sure a lot hoped for a 8 year deal for Auston just like Connor.

If Edmonton gets McDavid for 8 years at $12.5 mil but Leafs are getting Matthews for 5-6 years at near $12 mil, then it doesn't seem like a very good deal in contract comparison terms.

Its good news that AM is close to being signed and that is the good to take from this.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Sure, I'm fine with that, the problem is that we're giving him the same or higher percentage and NOT GETTING THE TERM.

That is a loss in every conceivable manner. If he's taking less term he should get less money, simple as that. We are buying LESS UFA years. You know...the years that count the most because they are the most expensive and potentially problematic.

Exactly, people have such a hard time with this concept. If he signs for 8 years, sure give him 15%ish. But if it's only a 5-6 year term and he STILL gets the 15%ish then Dubas dropped the ball big time.

 

[stakesishigh]

Crosby, Malkin, Kane and Toews all signed 5 year deals on their 2nd contract for comparable cap percentages (if not more). Want to guess how that worked out for them? Hint: multiple cups. Tavares signed a 6 year deal in his 2nd contract.

The idea to sign a lower term deal is to maximize cap efficiency for those years and then properly evaluate the cap over that term. If you can save about 2-3M on Matthews and Marner because they sign 5-6 year deals instead of 8 year deals, that means we can fit in an extra player or two.

My problem is much less with the idea of a 5 year deal and more with the NUMBERS on a 5 year deal.

If he's unwilling to sign for 8 years it should cost us considerably less, it shouldn't be the second highest contract in the NHL. We're buying a single year of UFA and still paying just under McDavid? That is ludicrous.

These RFA deals are beyond dumb. I don't understand why the Leafs are getting taken to the cleaners on these. Dubas showed a lot of weakness with Nylander and Leafs players agents have seen it.

 

[SprDaVE]

My problem is much less with the idea of a 5 year deal and more with the NUMBERS on a 5 year deal.

If he's unwilling to sign for 8 years it should cost us considerably less, it shouldn't be the second highest contract in the NHL. We're buying a single year of UFA and still paying just under McDavid? That is ludicrous.

Welcome to paying by cap percentages. That's how it works.

If Matthews signed an 8 year deal, his comparables for cap hit percentages would make him make go to 13M.

 

[TOGuy14]

I could probably live with 11x6 but will be livid if it turns out to be something like 12x5.

If he wants McDavid money he better take McDavid term too.

 

[Aintboutdatlyfe]

Idk why any of yall would even be worried that we wouldn't get him re-signed for his 3rd contract.

7-8 years would be cool but if 5-6 gets him a bit cheaper for us during JT's prime that's a good thing.


There really isn't much of any chance he walks from us in UFA. There's no precedent for players wanting to leave the Leafs unless we want them gone nor is there a precedent for players leaving their team when they're good (Or in general for that matter, JT is literally the one time it happened and it took a perfect storm).

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

AAV matters more than term, because Lou decided to make the cap situation needlessly tight with the Marleau and Zaitsev deals. Once Dubas can navigate through this offseason, it should be mostly smooth sailing though

 

[Aintboutdatlyfe]

My problem is much less with the idea of a 5 year deal and more with the NUMBERS on a 5 year deal.

If he's unwilling to sign for 8 years it should cost us considerably less, it shouldn't be the second highest contract in the NHL. We're buying a single year of UFA and still paying just under McDavid? That is ludicrous.

These RFA deals are beyond dumb. I don't understand why the Leafs are getting taken to the cleaners on these. Dubas showed a lot of weakness with Nylander and Leafs players agents have seen it.

He didn't show any weakness with Nylander what the hell, he did the opposite of show weakness and never caved? Literally waited Nylander out until the last day....

dummy.

 

[Mugzy97]

Why aren't they talking 7 or 8 years?

 

[stakesishigh]

Idk why any of yall would even be worried that we wouldn't get him re-signed for his 3rd contract.

There are other factors that I think are more of a concern.

First of all, it's nice to prolong having to do this again for as long as possible, for the player, the team, and the fans. There's an obvious value in not having this a constant point of discussion in the media.

Secondly, it's about having him locked in to a deal where as the cap goes up, years 5-8 of that contract increase in value. We are giving that up by not getting him signed to term.

The next deal will be entirely UFA years. Can't wait to see how expensive that is.

 

[Walshy7]

Aslong as it isn't a 6 year deal. Matthews + Tavares becoming UFA at the same time could turn out quite problematic

A 5 year deal is way worse. Matthews walks as a UFA and then JT either walks or is too old to be the main man.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

Welcome to paying by cap percentages. That's how it works.

If Matthews signed an 8 year deal, his comparables for cap hit percentages would make him make go to 13M.

That is how it works, I just don't think most people here understand it very well... I'd be perfectly fine with 13m over 8 years, at least the math checks out which the 11m/5-6 years does not.

Stamkos got 11.67% on a 5 year deal which puts Matthews at 9.67M for 5 years.... Not the 11-12M numbers that's being thrown out. Massive overpay.

McDavid got 16.68% on an 8 year deal. 15% seems proper for Matthews and on an 83M cap he should be 12.45M on an 8 year deal. We can bump it to 12.5M-13M x 8 years and the math at least holds up for me.

 

[MattySnipes]

It's been mentioned but we're in a new age in the NHL where young players are realizing they are most effective from the age of ~20 - 25. Thus they are looking to be paid in these years (not including very valuable UFA years). This is my sense of the potential Matthews and Marner deals.

It hurts a bit because we finally have a really good team and it seems our two best players both want north of 10.5 AAV. Based on GPG, ESGPG, SPG stats Matthews is at the top of his comparables, and Marner well...he's not slowing down either. I've always held the belief that if your players perform, especially your young stars -- PAY them!

The media has been pushing a story that the Leafs haven't won a damn thing yet and they're already flirting with 'cap trouble'. They are right in a sense as much as I hate to agree with the media but you also have to look at it from the Leafs' perspective.

As a fan first, I give them credit for always spending to the cap, even when we were rebuilding and always looking to improve the team with smart, talented, and solid hockey pieces.

When you build a team the way the Leafs have done with drafting and developing top 5 talent, and then some big signings/trades (Andersen/Marleau/Tavares/Muzzin) you're heading the right way towards achieving the right type of success. They say development isn't linear but a lot of our young players are improving annually which is more than you can ask for.

I'll leave it to our management team to make it work and fit. As long as I see Matthews and Marner in the Blue and White doing their thing, I'm a happy guy.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I thought that Arizona or Vegas will scoop him up. At least that's what some geniuses like Bobcat and Brunt were telling me.

 

[Cleetus]

Kypreos says they could announce a press conference today or tommorow, and Austons parents are in town....

 

[Walshy7]

Anything less than 6 years is an epic failure.

I’d rather 6 years x 12 mil than 5 years x 10/11 mil

unless his 8 year ask is ridiculous go for the 8. Even at $13M its still reasonable, unless of course he doesn't want 8 and then there is really nothing you can do.

one thing is for sure HF boards is going to cream their pants with the hottakes if Matthews signs anything less than 8 years.

 

[SprDaVE]

That is how it works, I just don't think most people here understand it very well... I'd be perfectly fine with 13m over 8 years, at least the math checks out which the 11m/5-6 years does not.

Stamkos got 11.67% on a 5 year deal which puts Matthews at 9.67M for 5 years.... Not the 11-12M numbers that's being thrown out. Massive overpay.

McDavid got 16.68% on an 8 year deal. 15% seems proper for Matthews and on an 83M cap he should be 12.45M on an 8 year deal. We can bump it to 12.5M-13M x 8 years and the math at least holds up for me.

Oh I agree that on 5 years, it should not be over 10-10.5M. That's why I say 6 years at 11M is very close to being fair and exactly the cap hit that makes sense for the next few years. Same cap hit as Tavares, the cap percentages are right inline with other superstars and nothing outrageous.

It's just slightly over what he should get but well deserved for a Franchise center that's only going to get more dominant.

I don't understand why anyone would be upset with a 6 year deal like that. If it's 12M for a 6 year deal, it's also over what I'd like but hardly a significant overpay.