Speculation: Matthews/Leafs closing in on new contract

[LeafChief]

The other thread hit 1000 posts.

Let's keep this party going.



It's being reported that they are looking at a 5-6 year deal in the neighbourhood of 11 million.





Matthews doesn't sound like someone that's thinking offer sheet (sup, Dreger). Mckenzie seems to think this will be done over the next few days.

Click to read more...

 

[Jozay]

Hopefully 6 years, close to 11 a year.

 

[LeafChief]

Hopefully 6 years, close to 11 a year.

I can live with 6 years at 11.

5 years is not my preference.

 

[SprDaVE]

6 years for 11M would be almost perfect.

 

[ToDavid]

My money is still on 5 years, $9.5-$10 million or 6 years, $10-$10.5 million. Leaning toward the higher ends.

I'm done worrying about all the numbers thrown around in the media. It will be signed soon, the number will be the number, the sky won't fall, life will carry on.

 

[Brown Dog]

I predict 5 years at $11.5 million per.

 

[MyBudJT]

5 years 10 or 6 years 10.75 is my hopes...

 

[JT AM da real deal]

My guess is 6 years at 11M to match end term/money of JT. or maybe a little more because even JT knows Matty is #1 and i think he is cool with that. If it is 5 years i think 10M is more reasonable.

 

[SprDaVE]

Mirtle also reporting the deal is close and also reporting that the numbers being thrown out are not all leaked by the Agent/Matthews side.

Mirtle: Why Auston Matthews is on the verge of signing a...

My understanding is that means something between $10- and $12-million over five or six years.

I’ve seen some interpreting the reports out there as entirely agent-driven, but I don’t think that’s accurate. No one directly involved in negotiations is giving out concrete numbers at this point, but there’s a general sense in the organization that things are headed in this direction.

Part of what is working against the Leafs here is how contracts for high-end young talent are trending. Leon Draisaitl got an eight-year deal for $8.5-million a season, which was 11.3 percent of the cap when it was signed, despite not scoring 30 goals or getting 80 points in a season (while playing a lot with Connor McDavid). Jack Eichel signed for eight years and $10-million, which was 13.3 percent of the cap, after producing just 113 points in the league.

Matthews’ numbers, on his entry-level deal, are far superior to both – especially in the goal-scoring department.

No one is arguing Matthews should be paid exactly like McDavid, Crosby or Malkin, who earned between 15.3 and 17.3 percent on the cap when they signed their second contracts. What you can definitely argue, however, is that he is right in the next tier.

Stamkos feels like a significant comparable. And for comparison purposes, he conveniently signed a five-year deal – albeit way back in 2011. At $7.5-million a season, it was then worth 11.66 percent of the cap, which is the equivalent to roughly $9.7-million in 2019-20 dollars.

So Matthews getting ~11M for 5-6 years is pretty much in line with previous comparables.

 

[Americanadian]

Anything over 11 on a 6 year deal exposes Dubas flaws as a negotiator.

 

[X66]

Before anyone craps on Matthews or Dubas for the high number this is going to be, remember two things...

1) Life without a franchise center is a lot worse than paying one 10+ million.

2) There are teams out there that would pay him 15+ if given the chance.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Before anyone craps on Matthews or Dubas for the high number this is going to be, remember two things...

2) There are teams out there that would pay him 15+ if given the chance.

Given the chance, they would’ve given lots more money to Stamkos/Kucherov too. We need our contracts to remain competitive with teams that give out good contracts, and not just be grateful we have a player that badly-managed teams would pay $15 million for.

 

[SeenSchenn2]

I do see the benefit of a 5-6 year deal, but if the number is $13M for 8 years I'd totally do that. That Marleau contract is really f***ing us.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Very true but when you are dealing with McJesus, MAC, Point and Matty those are gonna be top 4 centres in league for many many years to come. Crosby Malkin Stammer Bergeron maybe 3 years left maybe.

 

[mapleleafs34]

6 year deal is perfect for AM because it expires at the same time as JT's.

This way the leafs can give him a ton of $$$ on his new deal with JT gone.

 

[X66]

Given the chance, they would’ve given lots more money to Stamkos/Kucherov too. We need our contracts to remain competitive with teams that give out good contracts, and not just be grateful we have a player that badly-managed teams would pay $15 million for.

The dynamics are different though.

Tavares making 15.9 this year actually nets less than Stamkos.

 

[Cor]

6 years, 11M and call it a day.

If it's lower, awesome, if it's higher, slight groan but still worth it.


Can't wait for all the tools to act like the world is ending

 

[Mess]

6 year deal is perfect for AM because it expires at the same time as JT's.

This way the leafs can give him a ton of $$$ on his new deal with JT gone.

Having both Leafs #1C ending up as UFA at the same time might not be ideal situation.

 

[stakesishigh]

Everything we're hearing about this contract gives me the distinct impression that Dubas has absolutely bungled another contract so I'm really hoping the media has been overestimating.

It just feels like no other teams are having as much trouble as us getting our stars locked down.

 

[SprDaVE]

Having both Leafs #1C ending up as UFA at the same time might not be ideal situation.

Tavares will probably be at the tail end of his career, which means he'll either re-sign for a lot cheaper or let go when he's 34/35 years old, whereas Matthews will be right in his prime and the cap space open to likely sign his next deal.

I don't understand the problem.

 

[SprDaVE]

Everything we're hearing about this contract gives me the distinct impression that Dubas has absolutely bungled another contract so I'm really hoping the media has been overestimating.

It just feels like no other teams are having as much trouble as us getting our stars locked down.

Why? It's right in the same cap percentages as other young superstars. The cap number is bigger than previous comparables because the cap is higher.

It might be very slightly over what the perfect number should be but it's hardly going to hurt to re-sign your franchise center.

 

[CarterD]

Aslong as it isn't a 6 year deal. Matthews + Tavares becoming UFA at the same time could turn out quite problematic

 

[SprDaVE]

Aslong as it isn't a 6 year deal. Matthews + Tavares becoming UFA at the same time could turn out quite problematic

Why? Are we really worried losing 35 year old Tavares over Matthews?

 

[stakesishigh]

Why? It's right in the same cap percentages as other young superstars. The cap number is bigger than previous comparables because the cap is higher.

Sure, I'm fine with that, the problem is that we're giving him the same or higher percentage and NOT GETTING THE TERM.

That is a loss in every conceivable manner. If he's taking less term he should get less money, simple as that. We are buying LESS UFA years. You know...the years that count the most because they are the most expensive and potentially problematic.

 

[kb]

Tavares will probably be at the tail end of his career, which means he'll either re-sign for a lot cheaper or let go when he's 34/35 years old, whereas Matthews will be right in his prime and the cap space open to likely sign his next deal.

I don't understand the problem.

The sky is always falling with that one.....so keep that in mind.