Player Discussion Matt Dumba

[Minnewildsota]

Iam a Leaf fan I mentioned on the Leafs board that we should trade Brodie for picks and sign Dumba for 4.5 mil and got the haha ..
The said he sucks ?

Nah, he doesn't suck. He wasn't quite worth the salary he was getting (IMHO) but they expected him to continue putting up points. He likely would have if he didn't injure his shoulder. He was never really the same offensively after that. Still a good, not great, player though.

 

[TaLoN]

Iam a Leaf fan I mentioned on the Leafs board that we should trade Brodie for picks and sign Dumba for 4.5 mil and got the haha ..
The said he sucks ?

Dumba absolutely doesn't suck. He just wasn't worth $6m, hell... Spurgeon is even less worth his $7mil yet people around the league love him.
Dumba plays a very good all around game and can even carry a pair defensively when asked to. Always been underrated by fans.

 

[Circulartheory]

Dumba absolutely doesn't suck. He just wasn't worth $6m, hell... Spurgeon is even less worth his $7mil yet people around the league love him.
Dumba plays a very good all around game and can even carry a pair defensively when asked to. Always been underrated by fans.

I love Spurgeon but besides the point Totally agree with Dumba. The disconnect is most definitely the type of player he was drafted to be and shown signs of becoming versus who we had to remake his game.

We keep wanting his huge slapshot. We want his aggressively heavy hitting game.
But he turned it all down and become a fairly reliable all-round defenseman. Not great at anything specific but mobile and ate top minutes on a regular basis without too many gaffs. He is closer to a $3.5mil - 4.5mil AAV type of player.

EDIT: Added a range to the AAV

 

[horner]

Dumba absolutely doesn't suck. He just wasn't worth $6m, hell... Spurgeon is even less worth his $7mil yet people around the league love him.
Dumba plays a very good all around game and can even carry a pair defensively when asked to. Always been underrated by fans.

Thanks

 

[HotDish]

I love Spurgeon but besides the point Totally agree with Dumba. The disconnect is most definitely the type of player he was drafted to be and shown signs of becoming versus who we had to remake his game.

We keep wanting his huge slapshot. We want his aggressively heavy hitting game.
But he turned it all down and become a fairly reliable all-round defenseman. Not great at anything specific but mobile and ate top minutes on a regular basis without too many gaffs. He is closer to a $3.5mil - 4.5mil AAV type of player.

EDIT: Added a range to the AAV

Call me paranoid but I think if Dumba doesn’t
rupture his right pectoralis we have that huge slap shot. While it is a guess to say he could maintain the pace he was on. That season he looked to join the company of Dmen that scored 30 goals in a season.

Dumba’s offense just hasn’t looked the same since that season.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

A torn pec 5 years ago should keep you from having more than 10 assists this year.

He had plenty of shots clocked at 90+ mph this year.

He just simply lost whatever offensive instincts he had. Maybe it was beat out of him by the coaches. Who knows.

 

[TaLoN]

A torn pec 5 years ago should keep you from having more than 10 assists this year.

He had plenty of shots clocked at 90+ mph this year.

He just simply lost whatever offensive instincts he had. Maybe it was beat out of him by the coaches. Who knows.

He was never returned to the PP after he came back, where his offense was pretty great. Never understood why.
Suddenly Spurgeon was stapled into his old spot, Spurgeon has never been a great PP player.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

He was never returned to the PP after he came back, where his offense was pretty great. Never understood why.
Suddenly Spurgeon was stapled into his old spot, Spurgeon has never been a great PP player.

The power play is only part of the equation.

 

[Wabit]

He was never returned to the PP after he came back, where his offense was pretty great. Never understood why.
Suddenly Spurgeon was stapled into his old spot, Spurgeon has never been a great PP player.

Dumba wasn't very good on the PP either, 12ppp (4 times) is his career high.

His post-injury season he had more PP time than per-injury (well 7 mins less than his career high, but he only played 69 games, not 80+).

 

[TaLoN]

12ppp (4 times) is his career high.

One of those times was in only 32 games played. He was clearly breaking out the year he was injured.

 

[AKL]

26 goals and 72 points in the 114 games prior to injury

Works out to about 19 goals and 52 points per 82 games

About a third of that production was on the PP, so take that away and it works out to about 13 goals and 35 points with no PP time


Since coming back he has 23 goals and 86 points in 256 games

Works out to about 7 goals and 28 points per 82 games

3 PP goals and 15 PP assists, without those numbers he's averaging 6 goals and 22 points per 82


If I'm going to speculate here, the injury obviously had something to do with it, at least right away. His first season back again was 2019-20, he was on pace for 7 goals and 29 points in a full season, but it was cut short due to the league cancelling for covid. Obviously a stark decline from the 12 goals and 22 points he put up in 32 games before the injury the year prior.

After that, Evason took over at the end of that 2019-20 season. Dumba was never put back into the spot that Boudreau had him before the injury, but we already saw it wasn't 100% the decline in PP production that caused the overall decline in production, so it's probable that Evason had him focusing more on his defensive game, we know Evason likes to play a stingy game. And it culminated this year in 14 points in 79 games, and we know there was a heavy emphasis on using him defensively, and a heavy emphasis on his defensive errors.

I don't know if he'll ever be a consistent 50-60 point guy again, I wouldn't put money on it, but if we assume the injury isn't still holding him back, I think the only other logical conclusion is that Evason/the system is holding him back. So will we see him get back into the 30-40 range if he goes to a more offensive system/coach? I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Digitalbooya]

A torn pec 5 years ago should keep you from having more than 10 assists this year.

He had plenty of shots clocked at 90+ mph this year.

He just simply lost whatever offensive instincts he had. Maybe it was beat out of him by the coaches. Who knows.

His accuracy went away. I can tell you, as someone who has had a major back surgery, it is really hard to get accuracy back. Some things came back for me. Hockey stick handling, shooting, etc and throwing a football. Other things did not come back. I can’t throw a baseball like I used to. I can throw it with plenty of velocity, but zero accuracy.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

His accuracy went away. I can tell you, as someone who has had a major back surgery, it is really hard to get accuracy back. Some things came back for me. Hockey stick handling, shooting, etc and throwing a football. Other things did not come back. I can’t throw a baseball like I used to. I can throw it with plenty of velocity, but zero accuracy.

I don't exactly hold professional athletes to the same standard as you and I.

 

[TaLoN]

but we already saw it wasn't 100% the decline in PP production that caused the overall decline in production

I don't think anyone was claiming 100%, just that it was also a factor.

 

[AKL]

I don't think anyone was claiming 100%, just that it was also a factor.

I was referring to myself with my math earlier in my post, just walking through the steps

 

[AKL]

His accuracy went away. I can tell you, as someone who has had a major back surgery, it is really hard to get accuracy back. Some things came back for me. Hockey stick handling, shooting, etc and throwing a football. Other things did not come back. I can’t throw a baseball like I used to. I can throw it with plenty of velocity, but zero accuracy.

I don't love this as the only explanation, because looking at his NON-PP assist totals prior to the injury, he was at about 22 per 82, and after the injury he's been at about 15 per 82. If it was just the injury affecting his accuracy, we wouldn't expect a 33% drop. We already took PP out of this equation too so it's not that here either.

I think it's still a healthy combination of
1) injury affected some of his skills long term
2) lack of PP time
3) more defensive focus from system/coach

Two of those can potentially be addressed by going to a new team, so I still think his point totals rebound a little bit, but we'll see what his usage is like wherever he signs

 

[Digitalbooya]

I don't exactly hold professional athletes to the same standard as you and I.

I don't love this as the only explanation, because looking at his NON-PP assist totals prior to the injury, he was at about 22 per 82, and after the injury he's been at about 15 per 82. If it was just the injury affecting his accuracy, we wouldn't expect a 33% drop. We already took PP out of this equation too so it's not that here either.

I think it's still a healthy combination of
1) injury affected some of his skills long term
2) lack of PP time
3) more defensive focus from system/coach

Two of those can potentially be addressed by going to a new team, so I still think his point totals rebound a little bit, but we'll see what his usage is like wherever he signs

I’m just saying it’s one of a few factors I have for why his offense dropped off. Look at shooting percentage. His three worst shooting percentage seasons came in the four seasons after his injury.

I also don’t think having Brodin as his d partner did his offensive numbers any help. Suter and Scandella were at least a threat for offense. Brodin just isn’t.

 

[57special]

Things are noticeable quiet. I had a crazy thought. Might it not be possible that, in the absence of underwhelming offers from other teams, that Matt signs a one year deal for about 2.5M? We could maybe make it work if we traded Addison and Merrill, and had Hunt/Mermis as the 7D.

Matt would be hoping that next year would have more opportunities for him, with the cap going up. If Addison went, he would probably be getting more PP TOI, which would allow him to score more points, and be more attractive as a FA next year.

Spurgeon - Middleton
Dumba/Faber - Brodin
“. - Goligoski

Mermis/Hunt/?

That’s not a bad defense, and the bonus would be that;
- we get assets back for Merrilland Addison( 2nd and 3rd?)
- Faber gets broken in more slowly, lessening the chance he gets overwhelmed, and increasing the chance of a successful transition to the NHL.
- Hunt et al get to see a bit of playing time, rather than being blocked by Goli/Merrill.

 

[Sad People]

Things are noticeable quiet. I had a crazy thought. Might it not be possible that, in the absence of underwhelming offers from other teams, that Matt signs a one year deal for about 2.5M? We could maybe make it work if we traded Addison and Merrill, and had Hunt/Mermis as the 7D.

Matt would be hoping that next year would have more opportunities for him, with the cap going up. If Addison went, he would probably be getting more PP TOI, which would allow him to score more points, and be more attractive as a FA next year.

Spurgeon - Middleton
Dumba/Faber - Brodin
“. - Goligoski

Mermis/Hunt/?

That’s not a bad defense, and the bonus would be that;
- we get assets back for Merrilland Addison( 2nd and 3rd?)
- Faber gets broken in more slowly, lessening the chance he gets overwhelmed, and increasing the chance of a successful transition to the NHL.
- Hunt et al get to see a bit of playing time, rather than being blocked by Goli/Merrill.

This scenario i wouldnt really have a problem with. But im also in the camp of welcoming Dumba back if its for around the amount you posted. Not too sure how other people feel about it though.

 

[AKL]

No need to bring him back for one year. Especially if you have to move other pieces around to make it work. He's not a long term fit/solution, and we're not a team with serious aspirations next season.

 

[Wabit]

Things are noticeable quiet. I had a crazy thought. Might it not be possible that, in the absence of underwhelming offers from other teams, that Matt signs a one year deal for about 2.5M? We could maybe make it work if we traded Addison and Merrill, and had Hunt/Mermis as the 7D.

Matt would be hoping that next year would have more opportunities for him, with the cap going up. If Addison went, he would probably be getting more PP TOI, which would allow him to score more points, and be more attractive as a FA next year.

Spurgeon - Middleton
Dumba/Faber - Brodin
“. - Goligoski

Mermis/Hunt/?

That’s not a bad defense, and the bonus would be that;
- we get assets back for Merrilland Addison( 2nd and 3rd?)
- Faber gets broken in more slowly, lessening the chance he gets overwhelmed, and increasing the chance of a successful transition to the NHL.
- Hunt et al get to see a bit of playing time, rather than being blocked by Goli/Merrill.

If Dumba is looking for a big payday in a year he needs to get away from MN. This is the same coaching staff that gave him 10 mins of PP time in 79 games last year. For comparison Goli had 25 mins in 44 games, Brodin had 30 mins in 60 games, heck Rossi had 24 mins in 19 games.

I'd like to have him back, because I think the d-corps will be much worse without him. I just don't see any upside (besides not moving) for him to stay with the Wild for cheap. He'll be back in trade rumors as soon as the season starts. I don't see the team improving from last season, but more likely to fall off. I don't see him getting more (he already lead the team 5v5 ToI) or better (PP, o-zone starts with the scoring lines) playing time.

 

[north21]

Would love to have him back on a cheap deal. Keeping Dumba and adding Faber makes us better.

 

[Parax]

6.6 million to add Dumba, sign Gus, cover up to 850k in potential performance bonuses, and at a minimum 20 person roster. Cap/roster headaches aside I'd rather give Faber the bigger role since he's part of the long term picture, even if that means they aren't as good next year since it's not like Dumba is what's putting them in contender status.

 

[57special]

Again, if we signed Dumba, we’d move Addison for sure, and maybe Merrill. Having Dumba for this year would give us one more year to develop all the Dmen prospects that we have.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I still think they should move Zuccarello and Merrill

Brodin - Faber
Middleton - Spurgeon
Goligoski - Dumba
Addison