Dreger: Matt Duchene Mega-thread:Habs, NSH, NYI, OTT inquired - Part IV

[Habs 4 Life]

Unless he comes very cheap ( which I doubt ), It's not the type of deals that bergevin makes. I don't see him being traded to the Habs

 

[AvsGuy]

He just admitted he's posting while very high

That's how I read it as well lol.

 

[cgf]

Goin to be insane to see how much worse this gets when Sakic waits until the draft.

*shrug* he got exactly what he wanted for ROR even though ROR was closer to UFA, more difficult to negotiate with, and the inferior player.

I don't want Joe shopping for old guys on day one of the UFA market; or trust him to make the aggressive move needed to turn a good team into a contender; but he nailed the one previous core player trade he's made...even if he failed to pull the trigger on others that could've helped this team. So for now he gets the benefit of the doubt.

If a duchene trade occurs and we don't get the defensive piece we need...or a king's ransom...then we can reassess Sakic's trade skills.

 

[scott99]

Brian Lawton on Duchene



60% chance he gets moved before the deadline, lot of Isles/Avs chatter on Duchene.

But hey let's keep overriding verified NHL insiders with statements like "There's just not a lot from the Islander's roster or prospect list that makes it acceptable from the viewpoint of the Avalanche rebuild".

As long as we say we can do much better, everyone else will have to start giving us better offers. That's the way it works.

60% of the time he gets traded all of the time.

 

[LordNeverLose]

Dead

 

[cgf]

After reading all of this, I'm curious what Avalanche fans would accept as a "realistic fair deal" with the Isles.

I do understand that many would answer "we need nothing from them because they don't have pieces", but imagine – for the sake of discussion – there is a deal. What would you accept?

For example, how would you tweak "Hamonic OR Pulock + Strome OR Nelson + 1st + midround pick" to make it acceptable from the viewpoint of the Avalanche rebuild?

TBH the only really enticing NYI trade is the Hamonic-Barzal-1st overpay; because anything that fails to return a Hanifin / Chabot / Sergachev / McAvoy caliber defensive piece will be disappointing. So settling for a defensive piece that doesn't fit as well + a bluechip forward prospect + a 1st will be a let down that we'd need time to swallow; and we'd probably need to see a Barrie trade not long after...which could change our feelings.

That said, that package is amongst the most appealing packages I can envision that doesn't have the correct defensive piece. As only Murray + PLD + 1st would entice me more; as I'm a huge PLD fan and if Murray stays healthy he would fit our defensive needs better as he could partner EJ or Barrie with Zads on the other pairing and Bigras holding down the third pairing with Mironov / Barberio, and eventually Meloche.

 

[Wintersun]

I don't understand this narrative. Weren't there two rumoured deals with RDs in them already; one being COL talking to Boston regarding Landeskog with Carlo coming back and the other being COL and OTT talking about something around a package that had Ceci in it?

I don't think COL will have any issues with taking a huge package that has a player in a position they don't need. Maybe I am out to lunch, but they seem to be trying to get the BPA type package in order to help rebuild their team through these two (and maybe three if they eventually move Barrie) trades a few years down the line.

COL isn't a team who is one piece away from getting over that hump so I don't think there is urgency for them to get specific positions in return for Duchene. Maybe if someone has a great LD prospect like Sergachev or Chabot on the table that takes priority, but I hardly think they are in a position where they will turn down a high value package that allows them to walk away with more than the started with just because it doesn't get them their coveted LD right away. They can try to get 3-5 really good pieces for Duchene and then use that added value to try and find the other pieces they need as their young guns progress.

Well if that's what Sakic thinks, I don't agree with him. I think our team is one major piece away from becoming decent. A young top LHD.

Having, for exemple Hanifin - Barrie and Zadorov - Johnson as our two pairings would be a very good defense in the near future and we will probably draft one of Patrick, Hischier, Mittlestadt or Vilardi in the draft who will help replace Duchene's spot. There's Jost as well coming in soon, and Greer and Compher in depth roles should be good too. That doesn't make us good now but we'd have most of the building stones we need, plus we'd probably still suck next year and get another top end pick to add to that group.

For exemple :

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen
Jost - 2017 top 5 - 2018 top 5
Greer - Compher - UFA

Hanifin - Barrie
Zadorov - Johnson
Bigras - Meloche/Mironov

Would be a good core going forward to me. I don't think we're as far as some people say. We need to get rid of half the roster that is total dead weight and improve the LD situation. The forward depth should fill itself mostly with the coming drafts. And that's if we don't sign decent to good veterans and depth.

Not saying we'd be contender right there but if you acquire the d you need and then are patient with developping and drafting to fill the hole left by Duchene, the Avs are in good shape.

But that's just me.

For exemple, having say Pulock, Nelson and Dal Colle instead doesn't do much for us. It puts Pulock in a fight for the 3rd RHD spot, we still have only one decent LHD in Zadorov, Nelson is an okay 2nd liner but nothing to build around. And then Dal Colle is a pretty big question mark. How does that help improve the future of the Avs? I don't see it. You're much better off just holding onto your top 6 player and continue drafting and filling the holes if you're not going to fill the damn holes with the trade you make. We're using Duchene to fill holes, not to get rid of him. At least I'd hope. That would be stupid.

 

[LordNeverLose]

TBH the only really enticing NYI trade is the Hamonic-Barzal-1st overpay; because anything that fails to return a Hanifin / Chabot / Sergachev / McAvoy caliber defensive piece will be disappointing. So settling for a defensive piece that doesn't fit as well + a bluechip forward prospect + a 1st will be a let down that we'd need time to swallow; and we'd probably need to see a Barrie trade not long after...which could change our feelings.

That said, that package is amongst the most appealing packages I can envision that doesn't have the correct defensive piece. As only Murray + PLD + 1st would entice me more; as I'm a huge PLD fan and if Murray stays healthy he would fit our defensive needs better as he could partner EJ or Barrie with Zads on the other pairing and Bigras holding down the third pairing with Mironov / Barberio, and eventually Meloche.

I can't imagine for a second that Columbus would offer that

 

[seafoam]

Graziano would not say this unless he meant it in my opinion.

 

[Hunn]

Snow is among those willing to overpay.

I don't see how MD would return more in the offseason than now with the likes of Snow and Bergevin trying to save their jobs. Why do you think Sakic will get more in the offseason?

 

[xECK29x]

Graziano would not say this unless he meant it in my opinion.

Andy is very reliable from our side of things.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Graziano would not say this unless he meant it in my opinion.

This whole Sakic stalling stuff seems like Sakic is afraid to make a move unless it's the worlds most obvious overpay... Which could be good or bad.

I'm hoping the stalling is because he has offers from multiple teams and is deciding which trade is best.

 

[cgf]

I can't imagine for a second that Columbus would offer that

Probably not with the way they are playing this regular season. But if their ridiculous scoring depth dries up and they disappoint this postseason, the pressure could be on to add that dynamic 1C that would help the team take the next step. Especially once Werenski's got a full season under his belt next to a Norris caliber Jones.

 

[Goulet17]

We are only getting one side of things with these reports. If Sakic said I want player X, prospect Y, and draft pick Z, and Snow agreed to that, it would be one thing. But if Snow countered with pieces that in his mind met the Avs' criteria but is not something that Sakic asked for, it is an entirely different situation.

The other part with the leaks (possibly NY Islanders) and public statements (Dorian & Melnyk) is that it gives those organizations cover with their fans, so it is rather self-serving. I am skeptical when we don't have all of the facts and are not privy to specific inside information regarding any negotiations.

 

[Foppberg]

I mean it depends on the two offers. Does it include Barzal ++? Or is it Nelson + MDC +?

 

[Miri]

I mean, you can keep qualifying what you want, a defensive defensman over an offensive one, no not Hamonic he's too old for our rebuild, doesn't mean you'll get it.

I'm reminded of asking Oiler fans about Taylor Hall last year. They insisted:

1. He wouldn't be traded
2. If he was to be traded, it would have to be for a Subban/Doughty/Pietrangelo level player
3. Any offer you made less than that would be dismissed because why on earth would they take what we were offering instead of Subban from Montreal?

I understand that you guys are setting the price high for Duchene, absolutely. But you're also making all these assumptions about other offers that can apparently only be beat on our end by some Barzal+Hamonic/Pulock+1st package.

Yet I don't see much twitter chatter connecting Duchene with any of these other teams, or hearing that Ottawa is willing to give up Chabot or Boston is willing to give up McAvoy to bring Duchene to their teams. As lovely as it is to assume that Sakic is juggling all these high-value returns deciding which one he likes best, it's more realistic that a lot of teams have found Duchene's asking price far too high for their liking, and Snow is one of the only GMs trying to acquire Duchene by the deadline.

You're essentially creating leverage for yourself based on nothing more than messageboard assumptions. The only real leverage you have is "we don't have to trade Duchene if we don't get a return we like", not "we don't have to trade Duchene when there are much better offers from other teams".

Because Chabot, McAvoy, Sergachev etc...simply all these young players Avs are apparently after are totally equal to Subban, Pietrangelo or Doughty and nothing at all like Adam Larsson (based on his reputation while still NJD player)

 

[AvsGuy]

I'll be honest, not sure I'll be happy with any Isles trade involving Matt Duchene. I don't think they have the pieces to compensate the Avs properly.

 

[JoemAvs]

Keep on stalling, Joe!

 

[Pacman33]

This whole Sakic stalling stuff seems like Sakic is afraid to make a move unless it's the worlds most obvious overpay... Which could be good or bad.

I'm hoping the stalling is because he has offers from multiple teams and is deciding which trade is best.

Thats what im hoping. That or he has his eye on a specif player and seeing if another gm gives in before deadline

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

I think itll be Duchene to NYI forsure

 

[The Abusement Park]

Thats what im hoping. That or he has his eye on a specif player and seeing if another gm gives in before deadline

Well I hope he's not entirely scared ****less of trading Duchene cuz it has to happen sometime, I'm not opposed to waiting for the offseason to trade him, but the longer he stalls and waits the more nervous I get.

 

[CodeE]

Because Chabot, McAvoy, Sergachev etc...simply all these young players Avs are apparently after are totally equal to Subban, Pietrangelo or Doughty and nothing at all like Adam Larsson (based on his reputation while still NJD player)

Reread what I said again, you're absolutely misrepresenting my argument.

Oiler fans said absolutely no to [Hamonic] level players for Hall because they were certain they could land a [Subban, Pietrangelo, Doughty] player, so why on earth would they settle for what we were offering? As such, many hockey fans (except Oiler fans) would agree Larsson is closer in value to Hamonic than to Subban/Doughty.

Now Avalanche fans are saying absolutely no to [Hamonic, Pulock, Pelech, DeHaan] for Duchene because they're certain they can land a [Chabot, McAvoy, Hanifin] level player, so why on earth would they settle for what we are offering?

 

[hockeyheadlines]

I think itll be Duchene to NYI forsure

It's certainly looking that way. Haven't heard a peep from our side.

 

[Ahnotamoose]

This whole Sakic stalling stuff seems like Sakic is afraid to make a move unless it's the worlds most obvious overpay... Which could be good or bad.

I'm hoping the stalling is because he has offers from multiple teams and is deciding which trade is best.

Yeah, not really stalling as much as Sakic is being thorough (if the deal does hit his asking price). There are a lot of interested parties, he's going to call them all back and say "I have an offer for top 4D, top prospect, 1st, and minor piece, can you beat it?". If no team beats it, then he'll likely make the deal with the Isles.

 

[DriftEasy]

I'll be honest, not sure I'll be happy with any Isles trade involving Matt Duchene. I don't think they have the pieces to compensate the Avs properly.

That makes two of us. I think the price is astronomically high and I don't think I'd be willing to meet it.