Injury Report: Mathew Dumba - Returns Tonight vs. CHI

[hirawl]

He really needs to pay attention to every single word that comes out of Stevens' mouth. I've yet to see practically any progress in his game in the own zone in two years. Still constantly turning simple plays into something risky and complicated.

He looks to rely solely on his instincts, but his instincts don't seem to cover much more time than half a second ahead. Meaning he just does not read the game very well. Below the red line that is.

Good thing I guess is it also makes him still look very raw and that suggests there's a lot of room for improvement.

I want him to succeed so bad. Since we couldn't flip him for Drouin when that window was open, we need everything to make him the player he could be. It's essential since he's our only real wildcard left.

This is his year. We've got the personnel and the system, the team, everything. All set up and plated up for him to take the next step. I wouldn't mind if he took a giant leap or two.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Dumba played his best game of the year last night. Hopefully he just needed to get the jitters out.

Apparently BB disagreed given it sounds like 3rd will be Reilly-Folin tonight.

 

[keppel146]

Apparently BB disagreed given it sounds like 3rd will be Reilly-Folin tonight.

I'm super surprised. Folin is in much better shape than last year and it looks like he improved his skating, but I'm not sure reilly is better than dumba at this point...

 

[Goose312]

I'm super surprised. Folin is in much better shape than last year and it looks like he improved his skating, but I'm not sure reilly is better than dumba at this point...

Reilly had a very underwhelming camp and first game. Dumba has had some ups and downs but I would agree that Dumba has looked the far better of the two. I'm not sure I get this move.

 

[57special]

Hoping that Reilly avoids a sophomore slump.

Dumba giveth, and Dumba take taketh away. Still like him, still believe in his talent, but don't know that he will ever be a steady Dman. He belongs in the Subban, Burns, Karlsson camp of Dman. Exciting, and able to break a game open offensively, but also able to lose a game for you.

I do like his increased physicality. Not the biggest guy, but he is solid.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Hoping that Reilly avoids a sophomore slump.

Dumba giveth, and Dumba take taketh away. Still like him, still believe in his talent, but don't know that he will ever be a steady Dman. He belongs in the Subban, Burns, Karlsson camp of Dman. Exciting, and able to break a game open offensively, but also able to lose a game for you.

I do like his increased physicality. Not the biggest guy, but he is solid.

Dumba is probably more likely to be Bryan McCabe than those guys.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Anybody else super shocked that a 22 year defenseman isn't an A+ NHL defender?

At Dumba's age, Spurgeon had yet to play an NHL game or had just played a handful and Scandella was a fringe NHL/AHL player with a -22 NHL season on his resume.

 

[P10p]

Anybody else super shocked that a 22 year defenseman isn't an A+ NHL defender?

At Dumba's age, Spurgeon had yet to play an NHL game or had just played a handful and Scandella was a fringe NHL/AHL player with a -22 NHL season on his resume.

Not to take away from the point of your post because while I do agree, Dumba isn't even playing C+ defence at this point.

 

[ClayAikenFan77]

Not to take away from the point of your post because while I do agree, Dumba isn't even playing C+ defence at this point.

I think you're completely over exaggerating his defense struggles. For a team that wants to score more you think we would a top 20 dman for 5-on-5 GF60 to be playing.

 

[P10p]

I think you're completely over exaggerating his defense struggles. For a team that wants to score more you think we would a top 20 dman for 5-on-5 GF60 to be playing.

Pretty obscure stat to base your argument around, especially when you see who else is on that list... Mat Hunwick, David Rundblad, Chris Butler, Kevin Klein, all in the top 10... ?Yeah great point, we should ice...

Hunwick-Dumba
Rundblad-Klein
Butler-Suter

Most goals evar.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think you're completely over exaggerating his defense struggles. For a team that wants to score more you think we would a top 20 dman for 5-on-5 GF60 to be playing.

And to elaborate on the advanced stats, because the GF60 got me curious, over the last 2 seasons (not yet counting this one) here are some general production/possession rankings for defenseman that have played >1,500 5v5 minutes:

Team
GF per 60: 7 out of 161
GA per 60: 80 out of 161
SF per 60: 106 out of 161
SA per 60: 62 out of 161
SF%: 85 out of 161
FF%: 79 out of 161
CF%: 104 out of 161
OZ start %: 3 out of 161
DZ start %: 133 out of 161 (oddly, pretty much the exact same as Spurgeon)

Individual
Points/60: 83 out of 161
Goals/60: 25 out of 161
Shots/60: 40 out of 161

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Pretty obscure stat to base your argument around, especially when you see who else is on that list... Mat Hunwick, David Rundblad, Chris Butler, Kevin Klein, all in the top 10... ?Yeah great point, we should ice...

Hunwick-Dumba
Rundblad-Klein
Butler-Suter

Most goals evar.

What constraints did you use? Because 2 seasons and >1,500 5v5 minutes, the names I see are Hedman, Subban, McDonagh, Klingberg, Barrie, Stralman, Byfuglien and some odd unexpected ones like Klein, Russell and Orpik.

http://http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201416&sit=5v5&pos=defense&minutes=1500&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=F60&sortdir=DESC

And GF per 60 isn't an obscure stat, it's the rate that your team scores goals with you on the ice. Along with GA per 60, some pretty important statistics.

 

[P10p]

What constraints did you use? Because 2 seasons and >1,500 5v5 minutes, the names I see are Hedman, Subban, McDonagh, Klingberg, Barrie, Stralman, Byfuglien and some odd unexpected ones like Klein, Russell and Orpik.

http://http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201416&sit=5v5&pos=defense&minutes=1500&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=F60&sortdir=DESC

And GF per 60 isn't an obscure stat, it's the rate that your team scores goals with you on the ice. Along with GA per 60, some pretty important statistics.

Used just last year, and 500+ minutes played since he wasn't in the 750+ minutes filter.

 

[P10p]

and the stat is obscure without context...

 

[Minnesota]

Settling the argument.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Used just last year, and 500+ minutes played since he wasn't in the 750+ minutes filter.

I think the expanded sample size provides a clearer picture, no?

and the stat is obscure without context...

What is the context then? We score goals at high rate when he's on the ice, and we give them up at an average rate. Maybe he's just been super lucky for 2 years, but the D- defense doesn't hold up much in the underlying statistics.

 

[P10p]

I think the expanded sample size provides a clearer picture, no?



What is the context then? We score goals at high rate when he's on the ice, and we give them up at an average rate. Maybe he's just been super lucky for 2 years, but the D- defense doesn't hold up much in the underlying statistics.

The context is that he is given among the highest o zone starts and lowest d zone starts and yet you still can still see him as a defensive liability.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The context is that he is given among the highest o zone starts and lowest d zone starts and yet you still can still see him as a defensive liability.

You can, but that seems a bit like confirmation bias. The zone start thing is real, but also makes sense given the team situation (his d-zone starts are actually identical to Spurgeon's because Brodin has been given such a heavy burden). But even still, he's not giving up shots or goals at anywhere near an alarming rate for someone his age/experience.

And to be clear, I'm in no way I'm saying he's Suter-lite in the defensive zone, just not the trainwreck that many believe.

 

[AKL]

You can, but that seems a bit like confirmation bias. The zone start thing is real, but also makes sense given the team situation (his d-zone starts are actually identical to Spurgeon's because Brodin has been given such a heavy burden). But even still, he's not giving up shots or goals at anywhere near an alarming rate for someone his age/experience.

And to be clear, I'm in no way I'm saying he's Suter-lite in the defensive zone, just not the trainwreck that many believe.

I'm on board with this.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Anybody else super shocked that a 22 year defenseman isn't an A+ NHL defender?

At Dumba's age, Spurgeon had yet to play an NHL game or had just played a handful and Scandella was a fringe NHL/AHL player with a -22 NHL season on his resume.

This is incorrect.

Dumba is entering his 5th season after his draft and is 22.

At that time, Spurgeon was in his 3rd season for the Wild and already an established top-4 Dman for quite some time.

Scandella was not a fringe NHL/AHL player at that point. The only reason he spent that much time in the AHL that year was because of the Lockout. He was inconsistent for sure and needed stability, but he was playing in the top-4 when he was called up. He also at that point had demonstrated the ability to play a shut-down role when on top of his game, instead of Dumba who has never shown the ability to play average defense at any level.


Edit - I am always saying that Dmen take longer to develop. But a zebra doesn't change his stripes. Blueliners don't suddenly discover how to play defense at 25 due to coach if that never was part of their game to begin with.

 

[P10p]

This is incorrect.

Dumba is entering his 5th season after his draft and is 22.

At that time, Spurgeon was in his 3rd season for the Wild and already an established top-4 Dman for quite some time.

Scandella was not a fringe NHL/AHL player at that point. The only reason he spent that much time in the AHL that year was because of the Lockout. He was inconsistent for sure and needed stability, but he was playing in the top-4 when he was called up. He also at that point had demonstrated the ability to play a shut-down role when on top of his game, instead of Dumba who has never shown the ability to play average defense at any level.


Edit - I am always saying that Dmen take longer to develop. But a zebra doesn't change his stripes. Blueliners don't suddenly discover how to play defense at 25 due to coach if that never was part of their game to begin with.

Don't know why i didn't fact check this but yeah, misinformation being tossed out like fortune cookies

 

[Goose312]

This is incorrect.

Dumba is entering his 5th season after his draft and is 22.

At that time, Spurgeon was in his 3rd season for the Wild and already an established top-4 Dman for quite some time.

Scandella was not a fringe NHL/AHL player at that point. The only reason he spent that much time in the AHL that year was because of the Lockout. He was inconsistent for sure and needed stability, but he was playing in the top-4 when he was called up. He also at that point had demonstrated the ability to play a shut-down role when on top of his game, instead of Dumba who has never shown the ability to play average defense at any level.


Edit - I am always saying that Dmen take longer to develop. But a zebra doesn't change his stripes. Blueliners don't suddenly discover how to play defense at 25 due to coach if that never was part of their game to begin with.

What about at 22? Roughly 4 years before DMen are supposed to begin their prime? He's taken huge stride both of the last 2 seasons, I don't know why it's now so hard to believe that he could continue to progress.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

This is incorrect.

Dumba is entering his 5th season after his draft and is 22.

At that time, Spurgeon was in his 3rd season for the Wild and already an established top-4 Dman for quite some time.

Scandella was not a fringe NHL/AHL player at that point. The only reason he spent that much time in the AHL that year was because of the Lockout. He was inconsistent for sure and needed stability, but he was playing in the top-4 when he was called up. He also at that point had demonstrated the ability to play a shut-down role when on top of his game, instead of Dumba who has never shown the ability to play average defense at any level.

Spurgeon was born in November 1989, which means he turned 22 in November 2011. I did miscalculate by one year, so when Spurgeon turned 22, he had one year of AHL/NHL time (23 and 53 games, respectively) and another handful of NHL games from the 2011-12 season. Far from the player he is today.

Where did Scandella demonstrate his shutdown ability at 22, in his 11 total NHL games that year? Or his combined -31 seasons the years before?

Dumba is playing average defense right now at the NHL level. Average. Not great, not atrocious.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Don't know why i didn't fact check this but yeah, misinformation being tossed out like fortune cookies

He's not correct either. 22 was his 4th post-draft season and 2nd with the Wild (first full season with no AHL time).

 

[Digitalbooya]

Yeah both were incorrect. Spurgeon's 22 year old season was 2011-12. Dumba has yet to play his 22 year old season.