Injury Report: Mathew Dumba - Returns Tonight vs. CHI

[Dr Jan Itor]

I doubt it. Unfortunately what may happen is this season's cap crunch means a cheap-skate bridge deal and the Wild lose him in a couple seasons when he starts to hit his prime.

Even if we had the money, I still think the bridge deal would be the way to go with him. Unless he blows up to the tune of 20ish goals and 50+ points, his 3rd contract will still be at a reasonable level, and ready to kick in when Koivu's $6.75M comes off.

 

[nickschultzfan]

And maybe holding onto players like Dumba, and allowing them to reach their potential, elongates those windows.

Our "window" isn't dependent on how long Parise, Suter and Koivu can hang on, it's dependent on Coyle, Nino, Granlund, Dumba and Brodin taking the necessary steps forward.

I still think that model requires a "core" of elite talent who are always there as other guys cycle in and out. In the modern NHL, it seems like there is two models that win Cups:

1) Reloaders:
Elite superstar core supplemented by (1) drafting and developing and (2) trading/free agents to address immediate needs.
Examples: Hawks (Kane/Toews), Pens (Crosby/Malkin), Kings (Kopitar/Doughty)

2) Peak Window:
Balanced team built on strong centers and bluelines with (1) a core is in its prime and (2) timely injection of youth.
Examples: Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, Carolina

The Wild will never be a Reloader without a full tank. And you could argue that even the "Peak Window" teams had plenty of star power.

 

[57special]

Can't believe some of the negative comments on Dumba. He is still 21 years old. All defensemen need time..he's doing fine and producing points on a team that seemed committed to preventing that from happening. Suter played 63 AHL games the year he turned 20. His 21-year-old season he was playing behind Timonen, Zidlicky, and Hamhuis. He turned out ok??

I think Brodin fitting in so seamlessly in the top 4, and Trouba looking so good in his first year, caused us to raise expectations for Dumba. I think the hardest thing for any Dman to learn coming onto the NHL is how to play defense, especially when they are coming in from Junior, where defensive play is an afterthought.

Dumba has exciting physical tools, and while he's no weakling right now, will be even stronger in a year or two.

What I don't like is having Dumba being penciled into the top 4 until he has proved he can play at least decent defense. That can be the ruin of a young Dman. It took Scandella quite a while, but he has become a very good defender...he was pretty bad for a while in his early 20's.

I don't know if we'll have the luxury of keeping Dumba, but if we keep him and play him with Reilly on the third pairing that could be one of the most dynamic third pairings in the history of the league- Yeo would've jailed them.

 

[57special]

And maybe holding onto players like Dumba, and allowing them to reach their potential, elongates those windows.

Our "window" isn't dependent on how long Parise, Suter and Koivu can hang on, it's dependent on Coyle, Nino, Granlund, Dumba and Brodin taking the necessary steps forward.

Hall and Nurse don't have Suter, Spurgeon, Scandella and Brodin. We have that luxury.

Well said.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

I still think that model requires a "core" of elite talent who are always there as other guys cycle in and out. In the modern NHL, it seems like there is two models that win Cups:

1) Reloaders:
Elite superstar core supplemented by (1) drafting and developing and (2) trading/free agents to address immediate needs.
Examples: Hawks (Kane/Toews), Pens (Crosby/Malkin), Kings (Kopitar/Doughty)

2) Peak Window:
Balanced team built on strong centers and bluelines with (1) a core is in its prime and (2) timely injection of youth.
Examples: Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, Carolina

The Wild will never be a Reloader without a full tank. And you could argue that even the "Peak Window" teams had plenty of star power.

Peak Window Boston had Chara, a goalie out of his mind, two "number one" centers, a HOFer in Recchi, a lottery pick in Seguin, etc.

Peak Window Detroit had arguably the best defenseman in history, two "number one" centers in Datsyuk and Zetterberg, plus guys like Kris Draper down the middle.

Anaheim had two HOF defenseman, HOFer Selanne, then Getzlaf, Andy McDonald (great player before injuries), Pahlsson, Niedermayer down the middle.

Carolina was a strange team, but their strength was definitely having Rod Brind'Amour and Doug Weight and Eric Staal and Matt Cullen down the middle. Andrew Ladd, Ray Whitney, Cory Stillman, Justin Williams, Erik Cole, and Mark Recchi on the wings. The clock struck midnight on the Oilers, but they wouldn't have been competitive that season without Pronger. Their centers were Horcoff, Peca, Stoll, Reasoner.

Wild have a number one guy on D, they have a good goalie. Koivu and Haula are solid 2-3 centers, who could be 3-4 as well. No matter what other teams have done, the Wild's defense is its strength and they should keep building on it, nurturing Brodin and Dumba. If there's no progress next season, you're still not going to do worse than you do this summer in trade. It's more time accrued and it's a safe bet.

Every team out of the playoffs now had problems on D. Guys like Taylor Chorney and Justin Schultz are last resorts. A player like Dumba can develop into a primary option.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Peak Window Boston had Chara, a goalie out of his mind, two "number one" centers, a HOFer in Recchi, a lottery pick in Seguin, etc.

Peak Window Detroit had arguably the best defenseman in history, two "number one" centers in Datsyuk and Zetterberg, plus guys like Kris Draper down the middle.

Anaheim had two HOF defenseman, HOFer Selanne, then Getzlaf, Andy McDonald (great player before injuries), Pahlsson, Niedermayer down the middle.

Carolina was a strange team, but their strength was definitely having Rod Brind'Amour and Doug Weight and Eric Staal and Matt Cullen down the middle. Andrew Ladd, Ray Whitney, Cory Stillman, Justin Williams, Erik Cole, and Mark Recchi on the wings. The clock struck midnight on the Oilers, but they wouldn't have been competitive that season without Pronger. Their centers were Horcoff, Peca, Stoll, Reasoner.

Wild have a number one guy on D, they have a good goalie. Koivu and Haula are solid 2-3 centers, who could be 3-4 as well. No matter what other teams have done, the Wild's defense is its strength and they should keep building on it, nurturing Brodin and Dumba. If there's no progress next season, you're still not going to do worse than you do this summer in trade. It's more time accrued and it's a safe bet.

Every team out of the playoffs now had problems on D. Guys like Taylor Chorney and Justin Schultz are last resorts. A player like Dumba can develop into a primary option.

What's your point? It's sounds like you are saying Wild can't win without elite forwards but then you are saying we can't win without doubling-down on our defense.

 

[Saga of the Elk]

What's your point? It's sounds like you are saying Wild can't win without elite forwards but then you are saying we can't win without doubling-down on our defense.

Can't win without elite players. There is a better chance of Matt Dumba becoming one of those than anyone on the roster. Ergo, trading him is a super high-risk proposition.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I doubt it. Unfortunately what may happen is this season's cap crunch means a cheap-skate bridge deal and the Wild lose him in a couple seasons when he starts to hit his prime.

One of the dumbest things Fletcher has ever done is let Dumba play that 10th game in 2013, only to send him to Portland 3 fracking games later.

Sure would be nice to have Dumba on his ELC for one more year.

 

[keppel146]

One of the dumbest things Fletcher has ever done is let Dumba play that 10th game in 2013, only to send him to Portland 3 fracking games later.

Sure would be nice to have Dumba on his ELC for one more year.

I remember hearing at the time it wasn't the end of the world we burned a year. Does expansion change that?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I remember hearing at the time it wasn't the end of the world we burned a year. Does expansion change that?

I don't think so. This year would've still been his 2nd year which would've made him eligible. Just would've given us probably another $1 to $1.5M to work with, assuming Dumba is going to get ~$2.5M this summer.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Can't win without elite players. There is a better chance of Matt Dumba becoming one of those than anyone on the roster. Ergo, trading him is a super high-risk proposition.

Ok, but then shouldn't be we trading older players for the best young players we can get? Shouldn't we be tanking for top-5 picks?

 

[ThatGuy22]

I remember hearing at the time it wasn't the end of the world we burned a year. Does expansion change that?

Whoever said that was wrong, I was very upset at the time.

 

[Wabit]

Ok, but then shouldn't be we trading older players for the best young players we can get? Shouldn't we be tanking for top-5 picks?

Parise and Suter have 9 years left and the recapture penalty ($6.5M each) means they'll be on the roster. So the tank starts in 6 years?

 

[kingdok]

Outsider's question. What's the expectations with Dumba this year?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Outsider's question. What's the expectations with Dumba this year?

10+ goals
30+ points
Reliable enough defensively to play 16-19 minutes per game

 

[kingdok]

10+ goals
30+ points
Reliable enough defensively to play 16-19 minutes per game

Thanks.

Also, kind of a stupid question because the guy is only 22, but do you think there's still lots of room for improvement offensively?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Thanks.

Also, kind of a stupid question because the guy is only 22, but do you think there's still lots of room for improvement offensively?

Definitely. He won't be a 60+ point guy, but a prime of 15-20 goals and 40+ points wouldn't surprise me, as long as his overall game progresses to where he would be playing enough (20+ minutes) to attain those numbers.

 

[kingdok]

Definitely. He won't be a 60+ point guy, but a prime of 15-20 goals and 40+ points wouldn't surprise me, as long as his overall game progresses to where he would be playing enough (20+ minutes) to attain those numbers.

Thanks.

Last question, is he on your projected list of protection for the expansion draft?

 

[Hall of Faber]

Outsider's question. What's the expectations with Dumba this year?

Imo don't expect him to play 45 games with year (without a major injury). So maybe 15 points.

 

[kingdok]

Imo don't expect him to play 45 games with year (without a major injury). So maybe 15 points.

Really? How come?

 

[Hall of Faber]

Really? How come?

I think Stevens is prefer the bigger slightly more reliable defensively Folin. Looks like even Prosser in getting in over Dumba tomorrow night.

 

[keppel146]

Dumba played his best game of the year last night. Hopefully he just needed to get the jitters out.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Dumba played his best game of the year last night. Hopefully he just needed to get the jitters out.

3 games into the season...

 

[TaLoN]

3 games into the season...

Yeah, just like dufus Greenlay lastnight when commenting about the Haula, Nino Poms line being something Boudreau went to earlier in the season...like dude this is the 3rd game you moron. You can't really get much earlier in the season!

 

[10coach*]

This guy is an absolute stud