Mat Barzal WILL take a huge step back next season

[Strait2thecup]

You left out Rel Corsi. As this takes out the cloudiness of one team being superior to the other team on an entire year's sample. I often read how good Matthews is at ES, then Barzal must be very good then when you look at the underlying numbers. These are the facts according to Corisca hockey

ES REL Corsi

Barzal 6.83
Matthews 0.52
(Barzal with a + 6.31 superior differential)

Even strength production.
Barzal 63 assists. 2nd to arguably only the best center in the game McDavid.
Even strength points 3rd on the list of the NHL Networks top 20 Centers to only McDavid and Mackinnon 1000TOI.

Barzal 27 PPP last year. The PP is a vital component in deciding games. An area Barzal can still improve on.

But he is very balanced in his overall production. Not overly dependent on either ES scoring or PP production for overall effectiveness and he has one of the NHL's best ES REL Corsi's to boot.

Not a huge advanced stats guy but the relative corsi of Barzal seems like it’s wildly impressive.

Doesn’t really seem to fit the narrative that he’ll regress massively bc marner was a higher draft pick though

I point out again.. THE ONLY OPPOSING TEAM FANS COMMENTING IN THIS THREAD ARE LEAF FANS. I really wonder why that is

And then they ask why is Matthews being brought up ? I agree it’s stupid but the thread is a clusterf*** of TML fans who just need Barzal to not be good bc muh leafs are the best. So when you come here to vent about your jealousy of another player, some people will feel the need to just go ahead and start knocking your guy in said thread.

Only difference is nobody made a “Matthews WILL take a huge step back next season” thread

 

[Tage2Tuch]

Remember when people said laine WILL take a step back
And he went on to score 70 points and 8 more goals

It's all stupid to say something will happen in the future when there's multiplw probabilities

Laine has the fortune of playing in the best top six in the league, and playmakers, when you have a deadly shot as he does with all those guys, I’m surprised he doesent us better numbers. 26 assists in 82 games?

 

[TheDoldrums]

ES REL Corsi

Barzal 6.83
Matthews 0.52
(Barzal with a + 6.31 superior differential)

Even strength points 3rd on the list of the NHL Networks top 20 Centers to only McDavid and Mackinnon 1000TOI.

Why would you put a TOI minimum on some stats but not others? Why make a post comparing Barzal and Matthews then exclude Matthews from the stats where he was better? When Barzal has the edge you compare them directly, when Matthews has the edge you just ignore him.

 

[Konk]

Are you suggesting a team WOULD choose Barzal over Matthews?

Barzal makes me think of Samsonov. Flashy offensive player who dances around the perimeter. Fun to watch but at the end of the day the Matthews type is more likely to lead to playoff success.

 

[Peggy]

Laine has the fortune of playing in the best top six in the league, and playmakers, when you have a deadly shot as he does with all those guys, I’m surprised he doesent us better numbers. 26 assists in 82 games?

28 assists in 73 games his first season
Pretty good for a 19 year old
44 goals, 70 points as a 19 year old
That's the beauty of having a talent like Laine. He's still getting better


You can criticise all you want, But Laine did better than his first season
"Laine will regress"

 

[Eric Robson]

I feel like I have started World War Three.
I want to re-speak my mind after almost 2 months of this thread.
Barzal is a wicked talent, and will easily continue to produce the rest of his career.
The Only reason I see him taking a step back is because sophomore seasons tend to not go as well as rookie years and the Islanders just lost JT so all the pressure is on this one kid.
That being said, the kid is fun to watch and will be a force his entire career and shouldn't be underrated at any point. The kid is a fantastic hockey player

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Why would you put a TOI minimum on some stats but not others? Why make a post comparing Barzal and Matthews then exclude Matthews from the stats where he was better? When Barzal has the edge you compare them directly, when Matthews has the edge you just ignore him.

One is A player/player comparison(Barzal/Matthews), the other is a minimum 1000 TOI sample size of the NHL Network's top Centers. Matthews did not make the 1000 TOI sample size. He didn't play enough mins last year in only 62 games. As we saw in the playoffs, 7 more games, 2 pts, numbers can fluctuate with lower numbers. Again, projection does not equal facts.

 

[Eric Robson]

Are you suggesting a team WOULD choose Barzal over Matthews?

Barzal makes me think of Samsonov. Flashy offensive player who dances around the perimeter. Fun to watch but at the end of the day the Matthews type is more likely to lead to playoff success.

Did a Boston fan just complement the leafs? I think hell is freezing over I'd never see the day.
I suppose I need to say something nice back
ummm us leaf fans are incredibly jealous of Charlie Mcavoy

 

[TheDoldrums]

One is A player/player comparison(Barzal/Matthews), the other is a minimum 1000 TOI sample size of the NHL Network's top Centers. Matthews did not make the 1000 TOI sample size. He didn't play enough mins last year in only 62 games. As we saw in the playoffs, 7 more games, 2 pts, numbers can fluctuate lower numbers. Again, projection does not equal facts.

By this logic the Corsi is also a projection. Who knows what Matthews Corsi would be if he played a full season? Yet you have no problem comparing them without qualifications. On the other hand P/60 is only relevant when its over 1000 minutes because Matthews was a little better and we can't have that.

 

[bionic]

Just to get the full facts out there since one particular poster seems to be trying to twist and contort stuff as usual. Everything is from naturalstattrick.com and is data from their actual head-to-head shifts when playing against each other.

Matthews vs Barzal - last year in 20:03 of head-to-head 5v5 TOI

Matthews
CF% - 47%
SCF% - 55%
HDCF% - 60%
GF% - 57%
3 G + 2 A1 = 5pts

Barzal
CF% - 53%
SCF% - 45%
HDCF% - 40%
GF% - 43%
1 G + 1 A1 + 1 A2 = 3pts

Small sample and all but at least its a more complete picture than a couple of video clips and spouting random numbers from one game.

This will ignored by said poster.

 

[TDK67]

Why would you put a TOI minimum on some stats but not others? Why make a post comparing Barzal and Matthews then exclude Matthews from the stats where he was better? When Barzal has the edge you compare them directly, when Matthews has the edge you just ignore him.

Why would a poster known for manipulating data to push an agenda proceed to manipulate data to push an agenda? I cannot believe this crazy turn of events!

 

[The Winter Soldier]

By this logic the Corsi is also a projection. Who knows what Matthews Corsi would be if he played a full season? Yet you have no problem comparing them without qualifications. On the other hand P/60 is only relevant when its over 1000 minutes because Matthews was a little better and we can't have that.

Matthews did not play 82 games, he was 20 games shy. 'What if' is not a good argument when we all saw how 7 games he had 2 measly points affect his P/60 stats. You are making a what if argument which here carries little credibility.

I can also make 'what if 'arguments had Barzal played the same mins as Matthews did last season. He would have 95 pts instead of 85. You do realize Matthews had more mins per game than Barzal did? But this would be an excuse laden what if discussion that you seem to be making here.

 

[bionic]

Laine has the fortune of playing in the best top six in the league, and playmakers, when you have a deadly shot as he does with all those guys, I’m surprised he doesent us better numbers. 26 assists in 82 games?

Agreed. It's almost criminal that Winnipeg finished as low as they did to draft Laine. He has an advantage with the players he gets to play with. There is no way I would trade Barzal, Matthews or Eichel for him.

 

[IPS]

Matthews did not play 82 games, he was 20 games shy. 'What if' is not a good argument when we all saw how 7 games he had 2 measly points affect his P/60 stats. You are making a what if argument which here carries little credibility.

I can also make 'what if 'arguments had Barzal played the same mins as Matthews did last season. He would have 95 pts instead of 85. You do realize Matthews had more mins per game than Barzal did? But this would be an excuse laden what if discussion that you seem to be making here.

Cool you're lying again.

If you're gonna "make him play Matthews minutes," you gotta give him Matthews PP time too, not let him keep his PP time.

If you want to try and demand accountability, maybe make an argument without directly lying.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Cool you're lying again.

If you're gonna "make him play Matthews minutes," you gotta give him Matthews PP time too, not let him keep his PP time.

If you want to try and demand accountability, maybe make an argument without directly lying.

Matthews 18:08
Barzal 17:46

NHL.com - Stats

 

[TDK67]

You left out Rel Corsi. As this takes out the cloudiness of one team being superior to the other team on an entire year's sample. I often read how good Matthews is at ES, then Barzal must be very good then when you look at the underlying numbers. These are the facts according to Corisca hockey

ES REL Corsi

Barzal 6.83
Matthews 0.52
(Barzal with a + 6.31 superior differential)

Even strength production.
Barzal 63 assists. 2nd to arguably only the best center in the game McDavid.
Even strength points 3rd on the list of the NHL Networks top 20 Centers to only McDavid and Mackinnon 1000TOI.

Barzal 27 PPP last year. The PP is a vital component in deciding games. An area Barzal can still improve on.

But he is very balanced in his overall production. Not overly dependent on either ES scoring or PP production for overall effectiveness and he has one of the NHL's best ES REL Corsi's to boot.

The facts are that Matthews handily outplayed Barzal in their head-to-head shifts last year. Your imagination is free to run wild from there.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

28 assists in 73 games his first season
Pretty good for a 19 year old
44 goals, 70 points as a 19 year old
That's the beauty of having a talent like Laine. He's still getting better


You can criticise all you want, But Laine did better than his first season
"Laine will regress"

Why do people always feel it boosts the argument by putting a 1 next to the age Laine is. Sure that’s how old he wAs but by being 9 or so months younger then the other great players who are in there sophomore years, is it that big of a deal? ThAt team can win 6-2 and Laine doesent need to get one point.


We do GET IT.

Laine is young.

He’s also been an adult technically for three years too, so tired of hearing his age. I know it’s not bad too. I never said it was bad. I never even said he was just good. I think he’s great and I think he should be putting up even more numbers wih his talent abd opportunity, don’t you remember his two 7-8 game pointless streaks (or were they goal-less?) either way maybe he does this year.

 

[IPS]

Matthews 18:08
Barzal 17:46

NHL.com - Stats

You're not even half way there.

Barzal PP TOI/G : 3:10

Matthews PP TOI/G : 2:09

So Barzal gets 1 less minute of PP time if you give him Matthews minutes. Factor that in and he does not end up with 95 points. Yeah, have fun with your lying.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

You're half way therre.

Barzal PP TOI/G : 3:10

Matthews PP TOI/G : 2:09

So Barzal gets 1 less minute of PP time if you give him Matthews minutes. Factor that in and he does not end up with 95 points. Yeah, have fun with your lying.

You must have a hard time reading. I mentioned TOI per game. Not PP mins, you did. To try to change the topic. But if you want to add this, fine. I will take actual production over projections and what ifs 7 days a week and twice on sundays over the excuses you present.

 

[bionic]

You're not even half way there.

Barzal PP TOI/G : 3:10

Matthews PP TOI/G : 2:09

So Barzal gets 1 less minute of PP time if you give him Matthews minutes. Factor that in and he does not end up with 95 points. Yeah, have fun with your lying.

Let's also not forget Matthews facing the top shutdown lines and defence pairings for every team they face.

 

[IPS]

You must have a hard time reading. I mentioned TOI per game. Not PP mins, you did. To try to change the topic. But if you want to add this, fine. I will take actual production over projections and what ifs 7 days a week and twice on sundays over the excuses you present.

No you didn't, said the same minutes as Matthews.

I can also make 'what if 'arguments had Barzal played the same mins as Matthews did last season. He would have 95 pts instead of 85. You do realize Matthews had more mins per game than Barzal did? But this would be an excuse laden what if discussion that you seem to be making here.

If he got "the same minutes as Matthews", he would not get 3:10 PP time per game, and he would not pace out to 95 points like you claimed. Stop lying. You can't backtrack on what you already said.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

No you didn't, said the same minutes as Matthews.



If he got "the same minutes as Matthews", he would not get 3:10 PP time per game, and he would not pace out to 95 points like you claimed. Stop lying. You can't backtrack on what you already said.

As I said, not the same mins.

Matthews 18:08
Barzal 17:46

NHL.com - Stats

Why do you not include the entire quotes for posters? Strange for a poster preaching about lying...

I can also make 'what if 'arguments had Barzal played the same mins as Matthews did last season. He would have 95 pts instead of 85. You do realize Matthews had more mins per game than Barzal did? But this would be an excuse laden what if discussion that you seem to be making here.

 

[IPS]

Let's also not forget Matthews facing the top shutdown lines and defence pairings for every team they face.

It's ok he lied about that too.

I believe it was @TDK88 who pointed this out in either this thread or another thread when TWS tried claiming Barzal played harder QoC than Matthews and Tavares.

 

[TDK67]

It's ok he lied about that too.

I believe it was @TDK88 who pointed this out in either this thread or another thread when TWS tried claiming Barzal played harder QoC than Matthews and Tavares.

It was on this page of a poll thread. His post:

"Barzal played less mins per game than Matthews did. And he played against top D units and tougher competition as he was by far the most dangerous ES threat on the Islanders last season."

My response:

"Barzal played against Top D and tougher competition"...than who? Tavares or Matthews? Either would be false. It takes all of 2 mins to look this up and avoid spewing lies.

Matthews
Tavares
Barzal

 

[TheDoldrums]

I can also make 'what if 'arguments had Barzal played the same mins as Matthews did last season. He would have 95 pts instead of 85. You do realize Matthews had more mins per game than Barzal did? But this would be an excuse laden what if discussion that you seem to be making here.

5v5 P/60

Matthews: 2.93
Barzal: 2.89

PP P/60

Matthews: 5.89
Barzal: 5.67

So Matthews scores at a better rate 5v5. He also scores at a better rate on the PP. But somehow if Barzal had Matthews minutes he would have 95 points. That makes no sense whatsoever.