MasterMatt's top 50 NHL affiliated prospects

[Mrb1p]

Yes, it does... The BPA is the combination of the most-NHL ready player who's also poised to make a meaningful impact on his team. That's why "project" players are drafted in later rounds. It's why 1st overall picks typically "make" their teams. They're ready to play, and play at a higher level than their peers (against 18-40 year olds in the best league).

I don't think anyone forgets the "age difference" between Zadina and Kotkaniemi. MTL fans just typically bring it up to make excuses as to why Jesperi is further behind in development. They both played "full seasons" in their draft years. In most opinions, Zadina's was better.

Edit: I (dis)like how you chose your argument carefully. Rather than compare European rookies who scored 40 goals, you chose, "40 goal scorers in their 18-year old season", which is not the same thing. Nice cherry pick attempt, though.

Its not the same thing ? But youre telling me a guy playing his whole draft season as a 17 years old is the same as the one playing his whole season as an 18 years old ?

The level of mental gymnastics you have to do to convince yourself Zadina is on another tier is amazing. Just admit Zadina was in a pool of players after 2 and they were drafted as such. The top 12 was a complete crapshoot, and thats why everybody predicted wrong.

 

[TwoPiece]

Its not the same thing ? But youre telling me a guy playing his whole draft season as a 17 years old is the same as the one playing his whole season as an 18 years old ?

The level of mental gymnastics you have to do to convince yourself Zadina is on another tier is amazing. Just admit Zadina was in a pool of players after 2 and they were drafted as such. The top 12 was a complete crapshoot, and thats why everybody predicted wrong.

So... Ovechkin wasn't the consensus BPA of the 2004 draft because he's 6 months older than the average eligible age..? Holy crap. Talk about mental gymnastics...

 

[Mrb1p]

So... Ovechkin wasn't the consensus BPA of the 2004 draft because he's 6 months older than the average eligible age..? Holy crap. Talk about mental gymnastics...

When did I say that ? Age plays a factor, its just not a defining one, especially for elite players (Like Ovi.).

Kotkaniemi turned 18 in july, Zadina turned 18 in October. Basically, Kotkaniemi will play his 18 year old season this year, Zadina was this year. Obviously, Jesperi is gonna be behind Zadina in his development, he's basically a year behind in age.

Drafting is about projecting the best player for the duration of their careers, not the one who will hit the NHL the quickest. If thats what you mean, Ill agree. Zadina would probably be able to score 20 on his shot alone this year.

 

[TwoPiece]

When did I say that ? Age plays a factor, its just not a defining one, especially for elite players (Like Ovi.).

Kotkaniemi turned 18 in july, Zadina turned 18 in October. Basically, Kotkaniemi will play his 18 year old season this year, Zadina was this year. Obviously, Jesperi is gonna be behind Zadina in his development, he's basically a year behind in age.

Drafting is about projecting the best player for the duration of their careers, not the one who will hit the NHL the quickest. If thats what you mean, Ill agree. Zadina would probably be able to score 20 on his shot alone this year.

The player that positively impacts you the quickest, would likely do so for the longest. That makes them more valuable and "BPA".

You can generally gauge what to expect from Zadina, based on the way he played in North America, in his natural position. Kotkaniemi is more of a question mark, which is why I didn't expect him to go close to that high. He's a good winger in Europe. That's all we really know. In about a year we'll know if he's a good center in Europe, and continue to go from there.

Idk what MTL is or is not considering, but IMO it would be better for them to stick him in the AHL as a center. Develop both his North American game and his value as a center.

 

[JohnLennon]

None of my comments indicate that the QMJHL is a better league than the other 2 by any means. It is, however, a league that's played on North American ice. That's what makes Zadina's accomplishments 'good or great' (as a rookie from Europe).

Kotkaniemi, as a winger in the SM-Liiga, did not accomplish as much (IMO, or however you want to preface the distinctions). There's all of this claim that "he's a center so that makes him more valuable". He didn't play center for a majority of his season, so I don't rank him as one. He could suck as a center, but that's conjecture until he actually laces up as one, consistently.

Age differences of the same draft class don't matter to me. When the NHL/other league's season begins, they will both be eligible to play. Some may believe that "there isn't much separating them", but I completely disagree. I don't think they're that close at this point in time, and as I said, I don't think that'll change.

I see, I misunderstood the point you were originally trying to make regarding the leagues. So you're saying that considering Zadina is a European, his accomplishments in junior hockey are more formidable due to adapting to smaller ice. That's fair. There are many ways of looking at these things though, and one could just as easily argue that Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi playing in men's leagues during their draft years put them at more of an advantage (from a league competitiveness perspective, in other words playing against men).

People aren't praising Kotkaniemi as a center in SM-Liiga's regular season (he played wing as you mentioned) as much as his performance at center in the U18 and U20s (and his excellent playoffs with Assat). He's going to be playing as center for Assat next season, and will continue playing center from now on at all ranks, so labelling him as a center is definitely fair IMO. You saying you don't rank him as one doesn't make sense when considering all that. Natural centers start as wingers in a pro leagues all the time (Tyler Seguin for example).

As for age differences: at the early development stages around the age of 17 and 18, I think that makes a huge difference. 8 months is pretty significant. This is one point I'll definitely disagree with you on 100%, but it is certainly down to a difference of opinions.

We both have biases, you have read a lot about Zadina and like what you've read, same for me with Kotkaniemi. The difference is your claim that Zadina is very far ahead of Kotka and Tkachuk... he was passed over three times in his own draft, including for the very guys you claim he's far better than, so that is a bold claim and one I can't agree with. I'll maintain that the players are closer together than you let on. At this point, clearly it's difference of opinions, but thanks for the friendly debate thus far!

Tkachuk is the oldest out of those 3.

You're right, thank you for mentioning that!

 

[TwoPiece]

I see, I misunderstood the point you were originally trying to make regarding the leagues. So you're saying that considering Zadina is a European, his accomplishments in junior hockey are more formidable due to adapting to smaller ice. That's fair. There are many ways of looking at these things though, and one could just as easily argue that Tkachuk and Kotkaniemi playing in men's leagues during their draft years put them at more of an advantage (from a league competitiveness perspective, in other words playing against men).

People aren't praising Kotkaniemi as a center in SM-Liiga's regular season (he played wing as you mentioned) as much as his performance at center in the U18 and U20s (and his excellent playoffs with Assat). He's going to be playing as center for Assat next season, and will continue playing center from now on at all ranks, so labelling him as a center is definitely fair IMO. You saying you don't rank him as one doesn't make sense when considering all that. Natural centers start as wingers in a pro leagues all the time (Tyler Seguin for example).

As for age differences: at the early development stages around the age of 17 and 18, I think that makes a huge difference. 8 months is pretty significant. This is one point I'll definitely disagree with you on 100%, but it is certainly down to a difference of opinions.

We both have biases, you have read a lot about Zadina and like what you've read, same for me with Kotkaniemi. The difference is your claim that Zadina is very far ahead of Kotka and Tkachuk... he was passed over three times in his own draft, including for the very guys you claim he's far better than, so that is a bold claim and one I can't agree with. I'll maintain that the players are closer together than you let on. At this point, clearly it's difference of opinions, but thanks for the friendly debate thus far!

To be fair, I haven't just read about both players. I "scouted" both players. I didn't rank Kotkaniemi as a center, because he has yet to play the position consistently as I've watched him. If he does in fact play, and remain at, center for the 2018-19 season, then that will affect my 2019 Top Prospects "list".

 

[JohnLennon]

To be fair, I haven't just read about both players. I "scouted" both players. I didn't rank Kotkaniemi as a center, because he has yet to play the position consistently as I've watched him. If he does in fact play, and remain at, center for the 2018-19 season, then that will affect my 2019 Top Prospects "list".

Fair enough man. I believe Assat, the Finnish World Junior team, and Montreal all confirmed Jesperi will be a center going forward, so I'm quite confident that'll be the case. I probably didn't scout Tkachuk, Zadina and Kotkaniemi as much as you did, but I really liked all three of these guys and I'm really looking forward to seeing how their development progresses this season. Take care and all the best!

 

[Mrb1p]

The player that positively impacts you the quickest, would likely do so for the longest. That makes them more valuable and "BPA".

You can generally gauge what to expect from Zadina, based on the way he played in North America, in his natural position. Kotkaniemi is more of a question mark, which is why I didn't expect him to go close to that high. He's a good winger in Europe. That's all we really know. In about a year we'll know if he's a good center in Europe, and continue to go from there.

Idk what MTL is or is not considering, but IMO it would be better for them to stick him in the AHL as a center. Develop both his North American game and his value as a center.

Wouldn't you consider Kotkaniemis international play ? Where he pretty much went toe-to-toe with Hughes and came out on top ? Wouldn't you consider that he was a rookie in his Liiga season ? You do realize its a pro league and they have another agenda than playing a 17 years old as one of their two top 6 C ?

 

[TwoPiece]

Wouldn't you consider Kotkaniemis international play ? Where he pretty much went toe-to-toe with Hughes and came out on top ? Wouldn't you consider that he was a rookie in his Liiga season ? You do realize its a pro league and they have another agenda than playing a 17 years old as one of their two top 6 C ?

It's all been considered.

If Zadina begins the NHL season in Detroit (and stays there) then I certainly consider my choice of having him 10 spots higher than Kotkaniemi a scouting "win" in 2019. Only time will tell exactly how good or great each player will be. Right now, I think that Zadina has much less to prove.

 

[Mrb1p]

It's all been considered.

If Zadina begins the NHL season in Detroit (and stays there) then I certainly consider my choice of having him 10 spots higher than Kotkaniemi a scouting "win" in 2019. Only time will tell exactly how good or great each player will be. Right now, I think that Zadina has much less to prove.

If thats how you scout players, then I understand a lot more. Zadina playing in 2019 or not doesnt prove anything.

 

[TwoPiece]

If thats how you scout players, then I understand a lot more. Zadina playing in 2019 or not doesnt prove anything.

The point of the draft is to acquire players to perform in the NHL... How the hell does that not prove anything? That's one of the most asinine things I've read.

 

[Mrb1p]

The point of the draft is to acquire players to perform in the NHL... How the hell does that not prove anything? That's one of the most asinine things I've read.

Because playing in the NHL faster doesn't mean you "won" anything.

Did Arizona "win" the draft in 2016 ? They selected Chychrun after McAvoy and Jacob played in 2016-2017, McAvoy did not.
Did Philly win the draft when they drafted Konecny after Boeser ? Konecny played one year before him.
Did Buffalo win the draft in 2008 ? Myers won the calder while Karlsson only played 60 games.

Its a ridiculous argument.

 

[TwoPiece]

Because playing in the NHL faster doesn't mean you "won" anything.

Did Arizona "win" the draft in 2016 ? They selected Chychrun after McAvoy and Jacob played in 2016-2017, McAvoy did not.
Did Philly win the draft when they drafted Konecny after Boeser ? Konecny played one year before him.
Did Buffalo win the draft in 2008 ? Myers won the calder while Karlsson only played 60 games.

Its a ridiculous argument.

Well, let's see, if I had Zadina ranked #3, and Kotkaniemi ranked #13, and Zadina makes the NHL as an 18-year old, and Kotkaniemi doesn't... Well, then, I was correct in their rankings relative to each other. That's a win.

It's well-documented that Kotkaniemi is your love child, and although claiming that you had Zadina ranked #5, your constant arguments make it seem like you think he'll be an average NHL player at best (which, even if true, could still exceed Kotkaniemi's impact).

There are no arguments that you can make this summer to convince me that Kotkaniemi @ #3 wasn't a reach. Stop trying. I will be personally re-evaluating myself next summer. Until then, you and your opinions are but words.

 

[Mrb1p]

Well, let's see, if I had Zadina ranked #3, and Kotkaniemi ranked #13, and Zadina makes the NHL as an 18-year old, and Kotkaniemi doesn't... Well, then, I was correct in their rankings relative to each other. That's a win.

It's well-documented that Kotkaniemi is your love child, and although claiming that you had Zadina ranked #5, your constant arguments make it seem like you think he'll be an average NHL player at best (which, even if true, could still exceed Kotkaniemi's impact).

There are no arguments that you can make this summer to convince me that Kotkaniemi @ #3 wasn't a reach. Stop trying. I will be personally re-evaluating myself next summer. Until then, you and your opinions are but words.

You seem to be confusing NHL drafting with NFL drafting. Youre drafting 18 years old or younger... These players don't need ot make an impact next year or in two years, they need to make an impact period. Barza, PLD, Sergachev, Provorov, etc.. All elite players or close to that didnt play in their D+1 season, yet theyre much better than some whove played in it.

 

[TwoPiece]

You seem to be confusing NHL drafting with NFL drafting. Youre drafting 18 years old or younger... These players don't need ot make an impact next year or in two years, they need to make an impact period. Barza, PLD, Sergachev, Provorov, etc.. All elite players or close to that didnt play in their D+1 season, yet theyre much better than some whove played in it.

I'm not those one who's confused and self-contradicting.

 

[ookhaab]

As for Chayka, he seems to be good at drafting as well - excellent picks of Keller, Chychrun, Fischer, Perlini, Dvorak, etc. Him passing on Zadina was the biggest shock of them all, and really got me questioning whether there was a flaw with Zadina, or if these three GMs genuinely all preferred the players they chose over Zadina.

You have to admit it's certainly thought-provoking. The one that is most shocking is certainly Chayka's pick. I mean, all four of the GMs you mentioned are bashed, sure, but if anything, Chayka is bashed the least of all four. So using your bashing excuse doesn't seem to properly apply here in my opinion. Either way, I'm very eager to see how things unfold.

I honestly think it was that Zadina didnt want to go to yotes, and Chayka didnt want to draft a guy who didnt want to be there. Remember Zadina saying "Ottawa and Vancouver will regret not picking me" not even mentioning coyotes

 

[MasterMatt25]

I honestly think it was that Zadina didnt want to go to yotes, and Chayka didnt want to draft a guy who didnt want to be there. Remember Zadina saying "Ottawa and Vancouver will regret not picking me" not even mentioning coyotes

Vancouver picked after Detroit

 

[Whileee]

Not sure how Guhle is ahead of Niku, who just won AHL defenseman of the year as a rookie, and was a very strong performer in the Liiga the previous season.

 

[ookhaab]

Vancouver picked after Detroit

Correct, it was Montreal

 

[KidKaboom]

Zadina played against men in The Czech ligue as a 17yo before playing in The Q. 2pts in 25games

So basically, Kotka at The same age has performed better than Zadina against men... In what i believe to Be a better league!

Maybe The âge factor isnt important for some people, it certainly is for me.

Again, not saying Zadina isnt a good player , just that Kotka and him arent that far apart!

 

[Frk It]

Zadina played against men in The Czech ligue as a 17yo before playing in The Q. 2pts in 25games

So basically, Kotka at The same age has performed better than Zadina against men... In what i believe to Be a better league!

Maybe The âge factor isnt important for some people, it certainly is for me.

Again, not saying Zadina isnt a good player , just that Kotka and him arent that far apart!

He and fellow fist rounder Martin Kaut were only given 7-8 min of ice time a night that year.

 

[Frk It]

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[Frk It]

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[KidKaboom]

He and fellow fist rounder Martin Kaut were only given 7-8 min of ice time a night that year.

Kotkaniemi TOI: 7:54

 

[Frk It]

Kotkaniemi TOI: 7:54

There’s no chance he put up .5 ppg playing 7 min a night.