MasterMatt's top 50 NHL affiliated prospects

[WingsMJN2965]

Don't you think it's a little suspicious that three teams starving for offense passed on the best offensive option left available in the draft?

Bergervin: Regularly bashed by MTL fans, and clearly picked positionally more than BPA.

Dorion: Regularly bashed by OTT fans, probably picked what he thought was BPA. To be fair some had Tkachuk passing Zadina, but most will agree Zadina's ceiling is higher.

Chayka: Not sure if he's regularly bashed by Yotes fans, but then again he hasn't really been around long enough to leave that kind of impression. What is clear is that he leans heavily on advanced stats. Hayton will surely be a poster boy of this method, either in a positive way, or a negative way. Either way, this was a major positional reach.

Now, Holland is also bashed by Detroit fans, but most will agree that since he traded Brendan Smith last year he's been on a roll.

 

[JohnLennon]

Bergervin: Regularly bashed by MTL fans, and clearly picked positionally more than BPA.

Dorion: Regularly bashed by OTT fans, probably picked what he thought was BPA. To be fair some had Tkachuk passing Zadina, but most will agree Zadina's ceiling is higher.

Chayka: Not sure if he's regularly bashed by Yotes fans, but then again he hasn't really been around long enough to leave that kind of impression. What is clear is that he leans heavily on advanced stats. Hayton will surely be a poster boy of this method, either in a positive way, or a negative way. Either way, this was a major positional reach.

Now, Holland is also bashed by Detroit fans, but most will agree that since he traded Brendan Smith last year he's been on a roll.

Well, I think Sens fans bash Melnyk much more than they bash Dorion, to be honest. Dorion isn't really that bad and the Sens historically have very good scouting - so to me, a scouting group passing on Zadina for Tkachuk either meant they loved Tkachuk, or something about Zadina bothered them (or both).

I'm not as critical of Bergevin as most are, but I understand it's hard to praise the guy after a season like this one. I just don't think the team's drafting is their issue - but more their development. But I can see your angle on why they'd take a positional need, though Kotkaniemi (along with Tkachuk) were both ranked around the top 5 on draft day along with Zadina.

As for Chayka, he seems to be good at drafting as well - excellent picks of Keller, Chychrun, Fischer, Perlini, Dvorak, etc. Him passing on Zadina was the biggest shock of them all, and really got me questioning whether there was a flaw with Zadina, or if these three GMs genuinely all preferred the players they chose over Zadina.

You have to admit it's certainly thought-provoking. The one that is most shocking is certainly Chayka's pick. I mean, all four of the GMs you mentioned are bashed, sure, but if anything, Chayka is bashed the least of all four. So using your bashing excuse doesn't seem to properly apply here in my opinion. Either way, I'm very eager to see how things unfold.

 

[Frk It]

Don't you think it's a little suspicious that three teams starving for offense passed on the best offensive option left available in the draft?

Two teams who have been desperate for a #1 center for forever reached on a center... not suspicious at all.

 

[TwoPiece]

I think that, because of the impending doom regarding the departure of their current Captain, Ottawa was looking to draft a potential future leader.

Tkachuk has that leadership personality. Other than physicality, Zadina is better in every way, shape, and form of a hockey player.

Montreal and Arizona obviously also drafted by need rather than BPA.

 

[JohnLennon]

Thanks @Frk It and @TwoPiece, both those reasons are reasonable. Of course you can understand I'm not criticising any picks, I just think it's particularly curious in this case. I'd understand Montreal drafting by need for a center in Kotkaniemi, it makes sense considering he was ranked fairly highly, he's one of the youngest prospects from the draft, and he's an urgent need for the club.

Ottawa picking Tkachuk also wasn't much of a stretch, I agree, considering Tkachuk was in the top 5 in most people's lists (even some with him i the top 3).

But in Arizona's case, well, they already have Stepan, Strome, Galchenyuk, Dvorak as top 9 center depth/prospects, and it's not like Hayton projects to be a 1C as much as maybe Kotka would from the same draft, or even their own Dylan Strome, so picking Hayton over Zadina just seems interesting to me. If you look at their club, center doesn't seem to be a need nearly as much as Montreal.

 

[Mrb1p]

Thanks @Frk It and @TwoPiece, both those reasons are reasonable. Of course you can understand I'm not criticising any picks, I just think it's particularly curious in this case. I'd understand Montreal drafting by need for a center in Kotkaniemi, it makes sense considering he was ranked fairly highly, he's one of the youngest prospects from the draft, and he's an urgent need for the club.

Ottawa picking Tkachuk also wasn't much of a stretch, I agree, considering Tkachuk was in the top 5 in most people's lists (even some with him i the top 3).

But in Arizona's case, well, they already have Stepan, Strome, Galchenyuk, Dvorak as top 9 center depth/prospects, and it's not like Hayton projects to be a 1C as much as maybe Kotka would from the same draft, or even their own Dylan Strome, so picking Hayton over Zadina just seems interesting to me. If you look at their club, center doesn't seem to be a need nearly as much as Montreal.

But Hayton could end up as a 2way 2C. A 50 points C with size and 2way is worth similar to a 30 goal winger.

 

[Mrb1p]

I think that, because of the impending doom regarding the departure of their current Captain, Ottawa was looking to draft a potential future leader.

Tkachuk has that leadership personality. Other than physicality, Zadina is better in every way, shape, and form of a hockey player.

Montreal and Arizona obviously also drafted by need rather than BPA.

What do you mean by BPA?

 

[KidKaboom]

Bergervin: Regularly bashed by MTL fans, and clearly picked positionally more than BPA.

Dorion: Regularly bashed by OTT fans, probably picked what he thought was BPA. To be fair some had Tkachuk passing Zadina, but most will agree Zadina's ceiling is higher.

Chayka: Not sure if he's regularly bashed by Yotes fans, but then again he hasn't really been around long enough to leave that kind of impression. What is clear is that he leans heavily on advanced stats. Hayton will surely be a poster boy of this method, either in a positive way, or a negative way. Either way, this was a major positional reach.

Now, Holland is also bashed by Detroit fans, but most will agree that since he traded Brendan Smith last year he's been on a roll.

Because habs fans bashing the GM really indicates that The teams scouting staff failed ... Yup ...

Most analysts said picks 3 through 10 could Be Inverted and are all in The same talent bracket ... i mean BPA? Please ...

To me this is a P-L Dubois / Pulju type situation ... a professionnal organisation chose what They felt was The better player ... While fans and hfboards posters bashed Clb for passing on what was Believed to Be a better player ... A year later , funny to read all these threads ...

Not saying Zadina isnt gonna light it up but ... Pretending that 3 organisations passing on a player isnt alarming is kinda naïve

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Actually most analysts said that picks 5 or 6 through 12 were all in the same bracket... Zadina and Tkachuk were above the rest for a solid 6 months. Some put Kotkaniemi in the mix within the last month or two.

 

[Mrb1p]

Bergervin: Regularly bashed by MTL fans, and clearly picked positionally more than BPA.

Dorion: Regularly bashed by OTT fans, probably picked what he thought was BPA. To be fair some had Tkachuk passing Zadina, but most will agree Zadina's ceiling is higher.

Chayka: Not sure if he's regularly bashed by Yotes fans, but then again he hasn't really been around long enough to leave that kind of impression. What is clear is that he leans heavily on advanced stats. Hayton will surely be a poster boy of this method, either in a positive way, or a negative way. Either way, this was a major positional reach.

Now, Holland is also bashed by Detroit fans, but most will agree that since he traded Brendan Smith last year he's been on a roll.

Head scouts make the picks.

Timmins is respected by Habs fans

Sens have had great drafting aside from Brown

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Head scouts make the picks.

Timmins is respected by Habs fans

Sens have had great drafting aside from Brown

If I substituted the GM names for, "Front Office" would it make you feel better?

 

[Mrb1p]

If I substituted the GM names for, "Front Office" would it make you feel better?

Not at all. Youre confusing two things that are not necessarily related. Timmins drafting has been really good, development and management of players has been terrible.

 

[Shaman464]

Don't you think it's a little suspicious that three teams starving for offense passed on the best offensive option left available in the draft?

No, two teams were drafting based on need over BPA. It happens at times. You can't win cups with no centers.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Not at all. Youre confusing two things that are not necessarily related. Timmins drafting has been really good, development and management of players has been terrible.

Don't worry, the poll took care of the confusion.

 

[Mrb1p]

Don't worry, the poll took care of the confusion.

Which poll?

 

[JohnLennon]

But Hayton could end up as a 2way 2C. A 50 points C with size and 2way is worth similar to a 30 goal winger.

Very possible, and could be the reason Arizona took him. I see people keep mentioning that Arizona drafted based on "need" to explain them skipping out on Zadina, and I find that very puzzling.

 

[Mrb1p]

Very possible, and could be the reason Arizona took him. I see people keep mentioning that Arizona drafted based on "need" to explain them skipping out on Zadina, and I find that very puzzling.

Tbh I had Hayton really low and think they reached way, way up for him. Boqvist, Hughes or Dobson would've been the pick there.

 

[TwoPiece]

What do you mean by BPA?

BPA = Best Pick/Player Available

 

[Mrb1p]

BPA = Best Pick/Player Available

Broad definition. That is clearly not a fact. Its a misconception on people who read the media too much and put an overemphasis on the WJC.

 

[TwoPiece]

Broad definition. That is clearly not a fact. Its a misconception on people who read the media too much and put an overemphasis on the WJC.

Wrong. The way I see it, Zadina was the BPA @ #3 AINEC. I laughed my ass off when articles claimed, "Svechnikov, Zadina, and Tkachuk are all close". They aren't. Svechnikov > Zadina > Tkachuk. I don't think that's going to change at any point.

Zadina played wing in North America and scored 40 goals as a rookie. Kotkaniemi played wing in Finland... There is no question as to which player is more NHL-ready.

Your hatred for Zadina has already been well-documented. No more is necessary.

 

[JohnLennon]

Wrong. The way I see it, Zadina was the BPA @ #3 AINEC. I laughed my ass off when articles claimed, "Svechnikov, Zadina, and Tkachuk are all close". They aren't. Svechnikov > Zadina > Tkachuk. I don't think that's going to change at any point.

Zadina played wing in North America and scored 40 goals as a rookie. Kotkaniemi played wing in Finland... There is no question as to which player is more NHL-ready.

Your hatred for Zadina has already been well-documented. No more is necessary.

Let's reel this back here. Your opinion on Zadina being much better than Kotka or Tkachuk or anyone else after 1+2 is valid. But, you have to be fair to all situations. Tkachuk played college, Kotkaniemi played Finnish league, Zadina played junior. Of those three leagues, junior is the furthest from the NHL, and the least competitive league. Therefore, I wouldn't use the league's quality to leverage Zadina's value at all. It's what Zadina DID in said league that was impressive, but as a competitive league on its own, Finnish league and arguably college are superior (some might argue junior>college but I disagree).

Also worth noting is that Zadina is the oldest of the 3 (older than Kotkaniemi by 8 months, that's HUGE at this early stage of development). I totally get that you prefer Zadina by a long shot, but let's be fair to Zadina, Kotka and Tkachuk - there wasn't much separating them in at least some NHL scouts' eyes (if not many scouts), which to me says the outlook for each player is not as clear and certain as you claim it is, and their values are much more close than you give credit for.

 

[TwoPiece]

Let's reel this back here. Your opinion on Zadina being much better than Kotka or Tkachuk or anyone else after 1+2 is valid. But, you have to be fair to all situations. Tkachuk played college, Kotkaniemi played Finnish league, Zadina played junior. Of those three leagues, junior is the furthest from the NHL, and the least competitive league. Therefore, I wouldn't use the league's quality to leverage Zadina's value at all. It's what Zadina DID in said league that was impressive, but as a competitive league on its own, Finnish league and arguably college are superior (some might argue junior>college but I disagree).

Also worth noting is that Zadina is the oldest of the 3 (older than Kotkaniemi by 8 months, that's HUGE at this early stage of development). I totally get that you prefer Zadina by a long shot, but let's be fair to Zadina, Kotka and Tkachuk - there wasn't much separating them in at least some NHL scouts' eyes (if not many scouts), which to me says the outlook for each player is not as clear and certain as you claim it is, and their values are much more close than you give credit for.

None of my comments indicate that the QMJHL is a better league than the other 2 by any means. It is, however, a league that's played on North American ice. That's what makes Zadina's accomplishments 'good or great' (as a rookie from Europe).

Kotkaniemi, as a winger in the SM-Liiga, did not accomplish as much (IMO, or however you want to preface the distinctions). There's all of this claim that "he's a center so that makes him more valuable". He didn't play center for a majority of his season, so I don't rank him as one. He could suck as a center, but that's conjecture until he actually laces up as one, consistently.

Age differences of the same draft class don't matter to me. When the NHL/other league's season begins, they will both be eligible to play. Some may believe that "there isn't much separating them", but I completely disagree. I don't think they're that close at this point in time, and as I said, I don't think that'll change.

 

[Frk It]

Also worth noting is that Zadina is the oldest of the 3 (older than Kotkaniemi by 8 months, that's HUGE at this early stage of development). I totally get that you prefer Zadina by a long shot, but let's be fair to Zadina, Kotka and Tkachuk - there wasn't much separating them in at least some NHL scouts' eyes (if not many scouts), which to me says the outlook for each player is not as clear and certain as you claim it is, and their values are much more close than you give credit for.

Tkachuk is the oldest out of those 3.

 

[Mrb1p]

Wrong. The way I see it, Zadina was the BPA @ #3 AINEC. I laughed my ass off when articles claimed, "Svechnikov, Zadina, and Tkachuk are all close". They aren't. Svechnikov > Zadina > Tkachuk. I don't think that's going to change at any point.

Zadina played wing in North America and scored 40 goals as a rookie. Kotkaniemi played wing in Finland... There is no question as to which player is more NHL-ready.

Your hatred for Zadina has already been well-documented. No more is necessary.

NHL readiness has nothing to do with BPA. If thats what you meant, ill 100% agree.

Zadina scored 40 goals in his 18 year old season, something that has been done by about five page worth of people in the Q on elite prospect.

Other notables whove scored 40 at the same age
Timo Meier, Dea, Sprong, Mantha, Roy, Grigorenko, Beauvillier, Duclair(50), Ehlers (50), Brassard(100+ pts), Giroux(100+ pts) Pominville(100+ pts), Drouin (100+ pts), Huberdeau (100+ pts)

People whove had more points than Jesperi in their Liiga u18 season: Barkov, Lekhonen, Laine, Armia and Granlund. Kotkaniemi and Armia were the only rookies.

People often forget that Zadina and Kotkaniemi are almost a year apart.

 

[TwoPiece]

NHL readiness has nothing to do with BPA. If thats what you meant, ill 100% agree.

Zadina scored 40 goals in his 18 year old season, something that has been done by about five page worth of people in the Q on elite prospect.

Other notables whove scored 40 at the same age
Timo Meier, Dea, Sprong, Mantha, Roy, Grigorenko, Beauvillier, Duclair(50), Ehlers (50), Brassard(100+ pts), Giroux(100+ pts) Pominville(100+ pts), Drouin (100+ pts), Huberdeau (100+ pts)

People whove had more points than Jesperi in their Liiga u18 season: Barkov, Lekhonen, Laine, Armia and Granlund. Kotkaniemi and Armia were the only rookies.

People often forget that Zadina and Kotkaniemi are almost a year apart.

Yes, it does... The BPA is the combination of the most-NHL ready player who's also poised to make a meaningful impact on his team. That's why "project" players are drafted in later rounds. It's why 1st overall picks typically "make" their teams. They're ready to play, and play at a higher level than their peers (against 18-40 year olds in the best league).

I don't think anyone forgets the "age difference" between Zadina and Kotkaniemi. MTL fans just typically bring it up to make excuses as to why Jesperi is further behind in development. They both played "full seasons" in their draft years. In most opinions, Zadina's was better.

Edit: I (dis)like how you chose your argument carefully. Rather than compare European rookies who scored 40 goals, you chose, "40 goal scorers in their 18-year old season", which is not the same thing. Nice cherry pick attempt, though.