Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[18leafsfan18]

His point scoring rate didn't move. He was over 90 points for 82 consecutive regular season games as of December.
Nice attempt to distract.

Yeah.

2017-2018 - 22 G 47 A - 69 Points
2018-2019 - 26 G 68 A - 94 Points

Didn't increase ? That makes sense.

 

[ZEBROA]

For 10+ i want to see a 35g and 90+ points minimum from Marner. Among the ten highest scoring players in NHL playing full season. And thats with or without Tavares.

 

[inthe6ix]

For 10+ i want to see a 35g and 90+ points minimum from Marner. Among the ten highest scoring players in NHL playing full season. And thats with or without Tavares.

we need someone to repost that chart of his numbers with and without JT again to cool off the egregious point projections; he'll get his, but JT will help a lot

 

[Notsince67]

Yeah.

2017-2018 - 22 G 47 A - 69 Points
2018-2019 - 26 G 68 A - 94 Points

Didn't increase ? That makes sense.

You didn't address squat. He was around 1.13ppg when he moved to the second line
If you are unaware of normal development curves, go away and study a bit.
If you don't learn anything, please tell me who helped Jagr in year 3?

 

[ZEBROA]

we need someone to repost that chart of his numbers with and without JT again to cool off the egregious point projections; he'll get his, but JT will help a lot

He should be able to get 96p and about 12 more goals this year. Tavares helps a lot, he is great at finding open ice in front of the net. An above average passer harvest a lot there.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You didn't address squat. He was around 1.13ppg when he moved to the second line
If you are unaware of normal development curves, go away and study a bit.
If you don't learn anything, please tell me who helped Jagr in year 3?

View attachment 247365

So with your chart you are proving what ? Are you comparing Marner to Jagr ? Didn't Jagr play with Mario at that point ?

It's pretty simple to see that Tavares helped Marner get more points (The same way Marner helped Tavares get more goals).

Do you think Marner had the same point totals if Tavares wasn't his C ? That seems like a ridiculous take.

 

[inthe6ix]

He should be able to get 96p and about 12 more goals this year. Tavares helps a lot, he is great at finding open ice in front of the net. An above average passer harvest a lot there.

he's not a goal scorer, he's a distributor

although 12 more goals would be nice, i just don't see it happening since he is averse to shooting the puck

more assists? hell yeah but even 9 more goals for 35 this upcoming season is a stretch imo

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You didn't address squat. He was around 1.13ppg when he moved to the second line
If you are unaware of normal development curves, go away and study a bit.
If you don't learn anything, please tell me who helped Jagr in year 3?

View attachment 247365

You... uh... don't think a centre with Tavares's finish (who scored 47 goals)... uh... helped pile on assists for Marner?

I don't even know what to say at this point.

This place has gone completely nuts.

 

[Havoc]

I'm fairly comfortable predicting that Marner will have the highest AAV of all of them, unless his contract is a bridge deal <= 3 years.

Marner is using Matthews his teammate as his comparable, and I highly doubt any of those others are, but rather will fit within their own internal team salary cap structures and depth charts, when their $$ come in. IMO

Toronto just pays more for their players than other organizations. I'm expecting Marner to have a double digit AAV on a term of 6 or more years, which would land him in the top 10 highest.

I'd be tickled pink if Dubas could get Marner on the Drasisaitl deal [$8.5 mil X 8], but the realist in me just doesn't allow me to believe that will be the outcome.

It is true those other RFA's aren't using Matthews as a comparable. They are using Marner though. If Marner is using Matthews then yes, so are they.

Leafs were the first to deal with so many players that performed amazingly during their ELC. Someone posted a tweet about most points during their first 162 (I forget the exact number but I'm sure a lot of you coming out of the GDT for that night remember the post) games and Marner was in the top 10 and the only reason Nylander wasn't was because he came into the lineup during the tank year. If you ignore his short first stint on that crap team he was right up there with Marner using 16 / 17 and 17 / 18. Luckily Nylander didn't have a 90 point season in his third year or we'd have 4 guys making 10+ mil. He had to take 6.9.

What do players on team friendly contracts with the exception of Gaudreau have in common? Their contract became team friendly after the fact. They didn't have the ELC production to get paid like Marner. Schiefele , Pastrnak, Barkov, Mackinnon....all these guys put up Marner / Rantanen / Point numbers after they signed their second contracts. Not during their first.

You reference Draisaitl yet everyone thought he was overpaid when he first signed his contract. The contract is only a steal in hindsight.

You have to go back a decade to a guy like Bergeron to get clean evidence that the Leafs overpay. He took 5 mil for back to back 70 point seasons. Those were different times and different economies. Doesn't apply to the new wave of superstar youth. If a player puts up Bergeron numbers on their ELC today they are easily getting 8 mil minimum.

Now we finally have legit evidence with Rantanen and Point. Result? Same trouble as Dubas and the Leafs.

As far as Matthews goes, his comparables due to his potential and skillset were McDavid and Eichel. People will agree the ranking is 1.) McDavid 2.) Matthews 3.) Eichel. Matthews contract falls in line with his comparables. When another team has a Matthews to sign you will see it's a myth that Leafs overpay their players. Very convenient to claim Matthews is overpaid when we're the only team who owns a Matthews. Common sense says any team would overpay to keep him.

Leafs just signed Kapanen and Johnsson to reasonable contracts. If others don't agree their contracts are reasonable that's okay because what matters is the professionals agree. All these players in the same tier as AJ and Kap have similar cap hits: Compher, Buchnevich, Kerfoot, Vrana, Burakovsky, Dzingel, Ferland etc.

All these signings should be familiar since they occurred recently. I find it hard to believe AJ and Kap aren't making 4 million+ if I am to agree with your post.

 

[ZEBROA]

he's not a goal scorer, he's a distributor

although 12 more goals would be nice, i just don't see it happening since he is averse to shooting the puck

more assists? hell yeah but even 9 more goals for 35 this upcoming season is a stretch imo

I meant 9, got vacaition brain.

 

[Notsince67]

So with your chart you are proving what ? Are you comparing Marner to Jagr ? Didn't Jagr play with Mario at that point ?

It's pretty simple to see that Tavares helped Marner get more points (The same way Marner helped Tavares get more goals).

Do you think Marner had the same point totals if Tavares wasn't his C ? That seems like a ridiculous take.

How predicable. Instead of addressing my point on normal development curves to explain the dumb year 1 to year 3 trend that you used to prove Tavares had a major influence on his point totals, you pretend that I am comparing Marner to Jagr. Are you serious or are you trolling now?
Jagr was one of the best wingers to ever play the game. Are you saying that without Mario he wouldn't have moved from a 69 point season? Was there no expectation of him getting better? Do you believe that players dont get better? from their rookie seasons?

 

[biotk]

You didn't address squat. He was around 1.13ppg when he moved to the second line
If you are unaware of normal development curves, go away and study a bit.
If you don't learn anything, please tell me who helped Jagr in year 3?

View attachment 247365

There was no real who. Jagr's year 3 was helped by the ridiculous increase in scoring that occurred in 1992/93.

His adjusted points per 82 games were:

1991: 52
1992: 70
1993: 78 <-- year 3
1994: 95
1995: 121
1996: 144

Regardless there are few players in the NHL less like Jagr than Marner.

You... uh... don't think a centre with Tavares's finish (who scored 47 goals)... uh... helped pile on assists for Marner?

I don't even know what to say at this point.

This place has gone completely nuts.

Yup. Same people will say that Dubas was stupid for not signing Marner last summer because of his course his point totals were going to go up playing with Tavares, but at the same time they will say that Tavares didn't help Marner. However, it doesn't matter what they think - because Leafs' management understands how much Marner benefitted. ​

 

[Clark4Ever]

Not to diminish Marner's development curve, but to suggest that Tavares wasn't a huge factor in Marner's substantial increase in point production last season is to ignore the obvious.

 

[18leafsfan18]

How predicable. Instead of addressing my point on normal development curves to explain the dumb year 1 to year 3 trend that you used to prove Tavares had a major influence on his point totals, you pretend that I am comparing Marner to Jagr. Are you serious or are you trolling now?
Jagr was one of the best wingers to ever play the game. Are you saying that without Mario he wouldn't have moved from a 69 point season? Was there no expectation of him getting better? Do you believe that players dont get better? from their rookie seasons?

I asked a question because you brought up "evidence" that was completely out of left field with absolutely no explanation.

I never said anything about Jagr, you brought him up. Try to follow your own bizarre trail here.

I would assume that if Jagr did not play with Mario he would not have got that many points in his 3rd year. Jumps like that are pretty rare, which is why you needed to go back to 1993 for some sort of "proof".

 

[Notsince67]

There was no real who. Jagr's year 3 was helped by the ridiculous increase in scoring that occurred in 1992/93.

His adjusted points per 82 games were:

1991: 52
1992: 70
1993: 78 <-- year 3
1994: 95
1995: 121
1996: 144

Regardless there are few players in the NHL less like Jagr than Marner.

Yup. Same people will say that Dubas was stupid for not signing Marner last summer because of his course his point totals were going to go up playing with Tavares, but at the same time they will say that Tavares didn't help Marner. However, it doesn't matter what they think - because Leafs' management understands how much Marner benefitted. ​

Jagr was a phenom. He led the league in points more than once. He was already built like a tank when he was 18 yet he still improved significantly. Much of his improvement was due to his shot training but he also played smarter.

 

[Notsince67]

I asked a question because you brought up "evidence" that was completely out of left field with absolutely no explanation.

I never said anything about Jagr, you brought him up. Try to follow your own bizarre trail here.

I would assume that if Jagr did not play with Mario he would not have got that many points in his 3rd year. Jumps like that are pretty rare, which is why you needed to go back to 1993 for some sort of "proof".

Perhaps you should go back and look at the trail. You have been setting up strawmen arguments beginning with the claim that I said Marner was headed to the hall of fame when I said something quite different. The jist of my original point was to say he was very interesting to look at and was entertaining but he hasn't really achieved superstar status yet though his development is looking scary and you throw out that I am taking things too far. Perhaps you should take a break for awhile and stop messaging me such nonsense. You originally responded to me and in a way that was condescending built on a strawman. Everything you have posted on this is a strawman argument. Stop wasting my time.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I've long maintained that the utterly elite super rich have crazy ways to avoid taxes.

As such, I've long questioned just how significant the "no state tax" advantage really is (especially considering they're taxed on where they actually PLAY their games anyways)

I've always said that I want to hear from a REAL certified tax expert to weigh in.

As far as I know, that's only happened once. This article:For Marner and Leonard, it pays to know a few contract shortcuts

They speak to a "national tax estate planning specialist". He insists that it's flat out "bs" that players in Toronto will end up paying more in taxes.

Personally, I always made sure to not have a strong opinion on the whole tax situation until I could read from REAL tax experts. So far I only have one. I'm going to stand by the tax expert more than random posters on hfboards. If there are other tax experts that weigh in, I'd love to read them.

Assuming you do not use a tax/legal professional specializing in estate and different country taxes then you pay your normal taxes which means you will pay 13% more in provincial taxes in Ontario. There are only a small handful in the GTA who do this work as you need to be both a lawyer and a tax accountant and know where the proper corporations reside (inside working knowledge) and at their $3,00o per hour charge our rate doubt they will be on here. The costs to put these complicated tax loss corporations, deferral companies, series of transactions, estate plans in multiple countries is extremely costly as they are fairly unique to each player given citizenship, country of residence, where games are played and how and where you fly in from to each game. The average ECHL, AHL and NHL player making under a MIL a year can't afford it. It is only the very high end players who even attempt it. And when they do good luck as CRA is all over these plans.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Assuming you do not use a tax/legal professional specializing in estate and different country taxes then you pay your normal taxes which means you will pay 13% more in provincial taxes in Ontario. There are only a small handful in the GTA who do this work as you need to be both a lawyer and a tax accountant and know where the proper corporations reside (inside working knowledge) and at their $3,00o per hour charge our rate doubt they will be on here. The costs to put these complicated tax loss corporations, deferral companies, series of transactions, estate plans in multiple countries is extremely costly as they are fairly unique to each player given citizenship, country of residence, where games are played and how and where you fly in from to each game. The average ECHL, AHL and NHL player making under a MIL a year can't afford it. It is only the very high end players who even attempt it. And when they do good luck as CRA is all over these plans.

The article I linked specifically states that the actual team helps the players set up the rca's. So the players don't have to pay for it.

Remember, using rca's was considered such an outrageous financial advantage that the nba BANNED the use of them outright. That's how big of an advantage an rca is. The nba BANNED the use of them SPECIFICALLY citing that it would be an unfair advantage for Toronto.

Can you imagine this in reverse? Imagine other teams in the nhl (but not Toronto) could use rca's? Imagine we then learned that the nba BANNED rca's because they're such an outrageous advantage? The Dubas defense force would be highlighting this disadvantage every single solitary chance they could.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Perhaps you should go back and look at the trail. You have been setting up strawmen arguments beginning with the claim that I said Marner was headed to the hall of fame when I said something quite different. The jist of my original point was to say he was very interesting to look at and was entertaining but he hasn't really achieved superstar status yet though his development is looking scary and you throw out that I am taking things too far. Perhaps you should take a break for awhile and stop messaging me such nonsense. You originally responded to me and in a way that was condescending built on a strawman. Everything you have posted on this is a strawman argument. Stop wasting my time.

Strawman arguments.

I guess Marner's point totals in the last 2 years were imaginary and quoting your exact post is not representing what you said.

My original post was for you to pump your breaks a bit of a guy that is only 3 years into his career. Get a grip.

Read back and maybe have a sip of beer or something.

 

[biotk]

Jagr was a phenom. He led the league in points more than once. He was already built like a tank when he was 18 yet he still improved significantly. Much of his improvement was due to his shot training but he also played smarter.

I don't think that people who claim that Jagr came into the NHL fully developed physically actually watched him at the time. He gained a ton of strength over his first 5 years in the league. He learned how to use his size better and better. He went from being a finesse player who was easily pushed off the puck and outmuscled, to someone who would just run right through players and use his big ass to keep opponents away from the puck. He started with the skill and added the physical aspect to his game over time - not the other way around. It was because Jagr was huge, but largely physically untapped, that allowed him to improve so much from the time he was 18 until he was 23/24. Exact same thing goes for Mario - big, but weak, when he entered the league. Both Mario and Jagr doubled their adjusted points per 82 between when they were 19 (87 and 70 respectively) and when they were 23 (144 and 174 respectively). Matthews is Mario and Jagr sized. Marner is not and he never can be. It is one of the main reasons why I think Leafs' management was so quick to give Matthews what they gave him and have no intentions of giving Marner that kind of contract.

We will see how things go. But I expect Matthews to be a much more dominant player in 2 years than he is today. I don't think that the same will be said about Marner.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

The article I linked specifically states that the actual team helps the players set up the rca's. So the players don't have to pay for it.

Remember, using rca's was considered such an outrageous financial advantage that the nba BANNED the use of them outright. That's how big of an advantage an rca is. The nba BANNED the use of them SPECIFICALLY citing that it would be an unfair advantage for Toronto.

Can you imagine this in reverse? Imagine other teams in the nhl (but not Toronto) could use rca's? Imagine we then learned that the nba BANNED rca's because they're such an outrageous advantage? The Dubas defense force would be highlighting this disadvantage every single solitary chance they could.

What the article calls RCAs are just deferral corporations. This is the common program which has been around for years. The issue with it is how the deferral corp is setup and/or acquired. What it tries to do is move bonuses into non-retrieval tax deferred entities which are released when player finishes his career by turning income into dividends over a certain number of years when the player has no further hockey income depending on the CRA tax rulings on each transaction. Teams do not do this. Teams, like companies, shy away from giving tax advice to an employee for risk of being sued by the employee if there are mistakes made. And players have to think twice before getting involved in them too because they lose access to those deferred funds.

 

[Notsince67]

I don't think that people who claim that Jagr came into the NHL fully developed physically actually watched him at the time. He gained a ton of strength over his first 5 years in the league. He learned how to use his size better and better. He went from being a finesse player who was easily pushed off the puck and outmuscled, to someone who would just run right through players and use his big ass to keep opponents away from the puck. He started with the skill and added the physical aspect to his game over time - not the other way around. It was because Jagr was huge, but largely physically untapped, that allowed him to improve so much from the time he was 18 until he was 23/24. Exact same thing goes for Mario - big, but weak, when he entered the league. Both Mario and Jagr doubled their adjusted points per 82 between when they were 19 (87 and 70 respectively) and when they were 23 (144 and 174 respectively). Matthews is Mario and Jagr sized. Marner is not and he never can be. It is one of the main reasons why I think Leafs' management was so quick to give Matthews what they gave him and have no intentions of giving Marner that kind of contract.

We will see how things go. But I expect Matthews to be a much more dominant player in 2 years than he is today. I don't think that the same will be said about Marner.

Size is a bit over rated in projecting players. It helps but a lot of projections were made on size alone and they were wrong. Gretzky was 145 lbs soaking wet when he played his first pro game, in a much more physical era. Crosby is a lot smaller than Matthews. Players who aren't big just play a different game.

 

[TheProspector]

This guy wants more than Kucherov, who won Art Ross (vs 11th) and put up 1.56 ppg (vs 1.15) despite playing practically identical icetime.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

What the article calls RCAs are just deferral corporations. This is the common program which has been around for years. The issue with it is how the deferral corp is setup and/or acquired. What it tries to do is move bonuses into non-retrieval tax deferred entities which are released when player finishes his career by turning income into dividends over a certain number of years when the player has no further hockey income depending on the CRA tax rulings on each transaction. Teams do not do this. Teams, like companies, shy away from giving tax advice to an employee for risk of being sued by the employee if there are mistakes made. And players have to think twice before getting involved in them too because they lose access to those deferred funds.

You still pay your taxes but you do so over a long period of time at dividend rate of 29% versus 53% income rate. But this stuff gets extremely complicated.
Also depending on residency. and now with recent changes where our passports are now checked in audit process and days in and out of canada are examined. you better make sure you are residing in states for 6 months and a day if you set up the deferral in Florida.

 

[ACC1224]

This guy wants more than Kucherov, who won Art Ross (vs 11th) and put up 1.56 ppg (vs 1.15) despite playing practically identical icetime.

Curious, how did they compare at the same age?