Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Koolboss]

Still hoping Marner signs an offersheet. I need a break from Leafs

 

[18leafsfan18]

Most Leaf fans know what we have in Marner. IMO Leaf fans have grown tired of the third of three players trying to milk every dime rather than taking a discount for the good of the team, without having won a playoff series to boot. How can we compete with TB when we pay Tavares, Matthews and Marner $33M (roughtly) while TB pays Stamkos, Kutch and Point $27M ???

In this scenario you are paying Marner 10.4 and Point 9. Is that what will happen ? Point has higher value.

Also you are comparing 2 contracts by the Leafs signed this past year to 2 contracts that were signed in 2018 & 2016.

 

[18leafsfan18]

He aint Gretzky but he is a very interesting talent who brings a very unique talent that we have rarely seen. There is no guarantee that he is in the hall of fame quite yet but his style is so interesting, he might even change the way the game is played in time.
His style is so deceptive right now, I shudder to think what happens if he takes more opportunities to score.
He is already almost as entertaining as Datsyuk but he is still young and has time to improve.

He is a great player, but this is a bit too far...

 

[ULF_55]

It's really strange how one moment some say he can go, won't be missed, better off without him, etc and then in the next breath say he's worth 9/10 milliion a year.
Doesn't make sense.

They'd be better with him, but he isn't the franchise.

They signed Tavares last year, and he's probably worth the 11 million, but they wouldn't have folded if he signed elsewhere.

Doesn't make sense that some people think the Leafs would be failures without a single player.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

I'm worried it's going to go that way, but we cant be sure. I think it's at a stalemate and marner's camp wants to see what happens when the pressure ramps up. For all we know, Marner wants to be there for the start of camp.

I'd bet he wants to be there...if I had to guess it's one of those times when Ferris Paul and MArner sat in a room and it went something like this (paraphrased)

Paul:Can you see the disrespect they are showing my son...this can't be allowed to go on

Mitch: Dad it's ok sto-

Ferris: now Mitch listen, you are a top 15 player in the NHL and I think we should really try to maximize this contract, your UFA time isn't going to be hard...you're in demand and extremely talented.

Paul: What can we do to maximize his earnings, they don't talk about him in the captaincy position, they just paid AM exactly what he wanted for only 5 YEARS! imagine the next contract! what if Mitch gets hurt...we need to MAXIMIZE everything!

Mitch: Listen I just want to play for the Leafs, get as much as you can and let's see what term we can figure out

Paul: Mitch shush the adults are talking, so Darren...what can we do

Ferris: well we can run a quiet PR blitz using Darren Dreger to put some pressure on the Leafs to come to our demands

Paul: DO IT! Dreger would be the perfect person to do this.

Ferris: Mitch, don't say a word you have a brand to protect, let us be the bad guys...go to your cottage do whatever you need to do to be ready for next year and DO NOT ANSWER A QUESTION RE:YOUR CONTRACT STALEMATE

*Mitch Marner leaves room*

Ferris: Ok start talking to Dreger, I will talk to Dubas and we will meet up after and figure out how to proceed

Paul: My son (and by extension I) better get rich off this deal Darren or I will personally make sure Mitch looks for a new agent Capische?

Ferris: Yes Paul

*Paul Marner leaves the room*

Ferris: God I hate that guy

lmao I figure something like this went down at some point during the season/off season...good god if im right I should buy a lottery ticket lmao

 

[Notsince67]

He is a great player, but this is a bit too far...

Please elaborate. He is not entertaining? He is not deceptive? Do you think Jon Cooper took it too far when he said that Marner is not only one of the smartest players in the league but might be one of the smartest players ever?
A lot of people look for reasons to tear this guy down without qualitatively observing that he plays the game differently than most people do and have.
I wouldn't back down an inch from claiming he is one of the most entertaining players in the league right now. That doesn't come from an outlier of physical prowess or hugely technical supremacy. It is how he sees the game

 

[inthe6ix]

I'd bet he wants to be there...if I had to guess it's one of those times when Ferris Paul and MArner sat in a room and it went something like this (paraphrased)

Paul:Can you see the disrespect they are showing my son...this can't be allowed to go on

Mitch: Dad it's ok sto-

Ferris: now Mitch listen, you are a top 15 player in the NHL and I think we should really try to maximize this contract, your UFA time isn't going to be hard...you're in demand and extremely talented.

Paul: What can we do to maximize his earnings, they don't talk about him in the captaincy position, they just paid AM exactly what he wanted for only 5 YEARS! imagine the next contract! what if Mitch gets hurt...we need to MAXIMIZE everything!

Mitch: Listen I just want to play for the Leafs, get as much as you can and let's see what term we can figure out

Paul: Mitch shush the adults are talking, so Darren...what can we do

Ferris: well we can run a quiet PR blitz using Darren Dreger to put some pressure on the Leafs to come to our demands

Paul: DO IT! Dreger would be the perfect person to do this.

Ferris: Mitch, don't say a word you have a brand to protect, let us be the bad guys...go to your cottage do whatever you need to do to be ready for next year and DO NOT ANSWER A QUESTION RE:YOUR CONTRACT STALEMATE

*Mitch Marner leaves room*

Ferris: Ok start talking to Dreger, I will talk to Dubas and we will meet up after and figure out how to proceed

Paul: My son (and by extension I) better get rich off this deal Darren or I will personally make sure Mitch looks for a new agent Capische?

Ferris: Yes Paul

*Paul Marner leaves the room*

Ferris: God I hate that guy

lmao I figure something like this went down at some point during the season/off season...good god if im right I should buy a lottery ticket lmao

hah you should be a script writer

maybe offer HBO a season 8 re-write of GoT

 

[Randy Randerson]

Still hoping Marner signs an offersheet. I need a break from Leafs

good call, that would probably get almost no media coverage

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Most Leaf fans know what we have in Marner. IMO Leaf fans have grown tired of the third of three players trying to milk every dime rather than taking a discount for the good of the team, without having won a playoff series to boot. How can we compete with TB when we pay Tavares, Matthews and Marner $33M (roughtly) while TB pays Stamkos, Kutch and Point $27M ???

It really gets embarrassing when you consider total points last year.

Stamkos/Kutch/Point: 127 goals 318 points
Tavares/Matthews/Marner: 110 goals 255 points

So that's spending around 6 million MORE for 17 LESS goals and 63 LESS points.

I don't CARE if the leafs have better (lol) "projections" for goals and points. I don't CARE about debunked theories of lower taxes.

I'm just sick of it. I'm just so god damn sick and tired of these overpayments.

 

[IPS]

He is a great player, but this is a bit too far...

If he really was as good as a couple folks on here are trying to make him out to be, I wouldn't be too up in arms about a potential overpayment.

But he's really not. Patrick Kane is a more-than-generous comparable (I really don't think he's as good) and Marner's demands are way above his when he was coming off hi ELC.

 

[ToneDog]

In this scenario you are paying Marner 10.4 and Point 9. Is that what will happen ? Point has higher value.

Also you are comparing 2 contracts by the Leafs signed this past year to 2 contracts that were signed in 2018 & 2016.

You make valid points. So if we stick to present day, Point is arguably better than Marner yet Marner is asking 1-2M more than what the max Point should get and (guessing) on a shorter term. Point will not get more than Kutcherov (9.5). My point is TB has a tax advantage while we have the disadvantage of having to overpay making it tougher to compete in a salary cap world.

 

[bikemike66]

If Rantanen were to sign for $8.5 mil X 8 do you think Marner would accept that contract?

I personally don't believe it would change anything in regards to Marner even if he went after.

Aho a player statistically similar to Marner got a $8.45 X 5 mil offersheet and Marner camp is rumoured to want +$2 mil more per season on that term.

Toronto market signings seem to be at the end of the rainbow of a 1-way street, where the NHLPA looks to for all its members to set the salary bar's ceiling.

Leafs have 2 of the 3 highest paid centres in the game behind only McDavid and soon Marner will likely be a top 3 paid winger.

I have never understood this. The vast majority of NHLPA members are never going to be getting these types of contracts, but there is a salary cap...so when the rich get richer, the middle class hockey player makes less or disappears completely to replaced by ELCs and cheap contracts.

One would think that the majority of players would be happy to keep their job and hope to get a few million/year for as long as possible. Why would those players want the salary bar to go up to 11, 12, 13 million? and more importantly, why would they fight for it in a CBA?

 

[IPS]

You make valid points. So if we stick to present day, Point is arguably better than Marner yet Marner is asking 1-2M more than what the max Point should get and (guessing) on a shorter term. Point will not get more than Kutcherov (9.5). My point is TB has a tax advantage while we have the disadvantage of having to overpay making it tougher to compete in a salary cap world.

If Marner got Point's PP time he would have out-produced him by a fair margin.

Mind you he's also not a 2-way C. I think Marner's a better offensive player...

 

[JT AM da real deal]

It really gets embarrassing when you consider total points last year.

Stamkos/Kutch/Point: 127 goals 318 points
Tavares/Matthews/Marner: 110 goals 255 points

So that's spending around 6 million MORE for 17 LESS goals and 63 LESS points.

I don't CARE if the leafs have better (lol) "projections" for goals and points. I don't CARE about debunked theories of lower taxes.

I'm just sick of it. I'm just so god damn sick and tired of these overpayments.

No point worrying about it really. The Leafs have soo soo much $$$ it is ridiculous. This is the main problem. Everyone knows it. Tampa is a have not $$$ team. So they use their Florida tax haven (zero Florida state tax paid) advantage compared to 13% top end rate in Ontario. The Leafs use their $$$ advantage due to non-hockey revenue so they use that one. And nothing we can do about Dubie paying a little too much. It is done already kinda like split milk.
If Leafs paid double the current salaries then they would still make a crap load of $$$. It has nothing to do with salaries. What you are really upset about is the CBA and the CAP. None of the core issues have been addressed in the CBA. and if it is opened up again it may be Pandora's box. It is way too complicated and legal in nature only something a lawyer like Gary would have built.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

hah you should be a script writer

maybe offer HBO a season 8 re-write of GoT

HAHA! nothing can save the tire fire that was season 8 of GOT...eerily similar to Paul Marner and Darren Ferris...an absolute tire fire of a negotiation lol

 

[Notsince67]

If he really was as good as a couple folks on here are trying to make him out to be, I wouldn't be too up in arms about a potential overpayment.

But he's really not. Patrick Kane is a more-than-generous comparable (I really don't think he's as good) and Marner's demands are way above his when he was coming off hi ELC.

So put out your projection this coming year. Where does he finish in Goals and points . Where does he rank among the point leaders? Give us your criteria. It's great to say he isn't as good without quantifying what your measurements are. Lets assume healthy.
Here are Patrick Kane's numbers.
He hit RFA in 2010-2011

 

[ToneDog]

If Marner got Point's PP time he would have out-produced him by a fair margin.

Mind you he's also not a 2-way C. I think Marner's a better offensive player...

I'd be willing to bet that Maner >= Point but that does not mean he deserves $1-2M more and possibly on a shorter term deal. This is what frustrates some Leaf fans.

I hated Nylander getting all he got after signing at the zero hour but if the old Willie returns, his contract is going to look like gold compared to AM and MM.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

HAHA! nothing can save the tire fire that was season 8 of GOT...eerily similar to Paul Marner and Darren Ferris...an absolute tire fire of a negotiation lol

Same as Willy's really. Both sides have put lines in the sand. Both players are run by their dads since they were in diapers. Only real issue now is Marner is facing a CAP problem which Leafs have now. So he knows what the maximum he can get from Leafs. and he will likely get it at some point at camp time.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Please elaborate. He is not entertaining? He is not deceptive? Do you think Jon Cooper took it too far when he said that Marner is not only one of the smartest players in the league but might be one of the smartest players ever?
A lot of people look for reasons to tear this guy down without qualitatively observing that he plays the game differently than most people do and have.
I wouldn't back down an inch from claiming he is one of the most entertaining players in the league right now. That doesn't come from an outlier of physical prowess or hugely technical supremacy. It is how he sees the game

"Not in Hall of Fame quite yet"
"May Change the way the game is played"

I'm not diminishing Marner, but come on he isn't McDavid.

 

[IPS]

So put out your projection this coming year. Where does he finish in Goals and points . Where does he rank among the point leaders? Give us your criteria. It's great to say he isn't as good without quantifying what your measurements are. Lets assume healthy.
Here are Patrick Kane's numbers.
He hit RFA in 2010-2011
View attachment 247327

If Marner could get some more PP time - I'd put him in that 5-10 range of league scoring.

It's kind of hard doing a direct comparison with Kane. After Chicago's 1st cup, they assigned Kane the role of driving the 2nd line with very sub-par players for the most part. He wasn't playing with no John Tavares. Many years later when he got a talented guy he could finally click with (Panarin) he lit the league on fire (his 106 point season is one of the best seasons post lockout when adjusted for league scoring).

Whether or not Marner can replicate his 94 point season I'm 50/50 on. I hope he can.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You make valid points. So if we stick to present day, Point is arguably better than Marner yet Marner is asking 1-2M more than what the max Point should get and (guessing) on a shorter term. Point will not get more than Kutcherov (9.5). My point is TB has a tax advantage while we have the disadvantage of having to overpay making it tougher to compete in a salary cap world.

There is definitely some truth in there, but you are looking at the extremes, I'm just trying to dial it down a bit.

 

[Mess]

Most Leaf fans know what we have in Marner. IMO Leaf fans have grown tired of the third of three players trying to milk every dime rather than taking a discount for the good of the team, without having won a playoff series to boot. How can we compete with TB when we pay Tavares, Matthews and Marner $33M (roughtly) while TB pays Stamkos, Kutch and Point $27M ???

This is perhaps likely what will be the outcome once Marner signs based on his asking price.

Highest AAV Forwards.

1). McDavid @ $12.5 mil X 8
2). Panarin @ $11.642 mil X 7
3). Matthews @ $11.634 mil X 5
4) Tavares @ $11.0 mil X 7
5) ~ Marner @ 10.5 mil X 6
6) Kane @ $10.5 mil X 8
6) Toews @ $10.5 mil X 8
8) Kopitar @ $10 mil X 8
8) Eichel @ 10 mil X 8

Based on shortest term & highest AAV our Leafs might have 3 of the top 5 highest AAV forwards in the NHL potentially worst case scenario and 3 in the top 10 best case scenario, if Marner took the Eichel/Kopitar deals on 8 year term.

** With all other teams getting max allowable term to hit those $$$ figures.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No point worrying about it really. The Leafs have soo soo much $$$ it is ridiculous. This is the main problem. Everyone knows it. Tampa is a have not $$$ team. So they use their Florida tax haven (zero Florida state tax paid) advantage compared to 13% top end rate in Ontario. The Leafs use their $$$ advantage due to non-hockey revenue so they use that one. And nothing we can do about Dubie paying a little too much. It is done already kinda like split milk.
If Leafs paid double the current salaries then they would still make a crap load of $$$. It has nothing to do with salaries. What you are really upset about is the CBA and the CAP. None of the core issues have been addressed in the CBA. and if it is opened up again it may be Pandora's box. It is way too complicated and legal in nature only something a lawyer like Gary would have built.

I've long maintained that the utterly elite super rich have crazy ways to avoid taxes.

As such, I've long questioned just how significant the "no state tax" advantage really is (especially considering they're taxed on where they actually PLAY their games anyways)

I've always said that I want to hear from a REAL certified tax expert to weigh in.

As far as I know, that's only happened once. This article:For Marner and Leonard, it pays to know a few contract shortcuts

They speak to a "national tax estate planning specialist". He insists that it's flat out "bs" that players in Toronto will end up paying more in taxes.

Personally, I always made sure to not have a strong opinion on the whole tax situation until I could read from REAL tax experts. So far I only have one. I'm going to stand by the tax expert more than random posters on hfboards. If there are other tax experts that weigh in, I'd love to read them.

 

[BackPassChampions]

Still hoping Marner signs an offersheet. I need a break from Leafs

You need the Leafs to give up arguably their best player to stop bandwagoning? Lol.

Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

 

[Sypher04]

This is perhaps likely what will be the outcome once Marner signs based on his asking price.

Highest AAV Forwards.
1). McDavid @ $12.5 mil X 8
2). Panarin @ $11.642 mil X 7
3). Matthews @ $11.634 mil X 5
4) Tavares @ $11.0 mil X 7
5) ~ Marner @ 10.5 mil X 6
6) Kane @ $10.5 mil X 8
6) Toews @ $10.5 mil X 8
8) Kopitar @ $10 mil X 8
8) Eichel @ 10 mil X 8

Based on shortest term & highest AAV our Leafs might have 3 of the top 5 highest AAV forwards in the NHL potentially worst case scenario and 3 in the top 10 best case scenario.

** With all other teams getting max allowable term to hit those $$$ figures.

Given we don't know the term Marner is going to get it's far too early to call 10M+ the best case scenario for his contract.
That said, regarding your whole point, who honestly cares where they place in the league.
All it comes down to is this: are the players in question worth the contracts they are signed to.

Tavares definitely is.
Matthews assuming health is probably a tad overpaid based on right now, but he's also the kind of player that's worth overpaying a bit if you need to.
And Marner same deal as Matthews minus the health concerns.

This list is more of an indicator of timing and player quality than anything else. There's a reason basically everyone on this list was signed in the last 2 years. This is what happens.
As more guys come up for new deals, more people will get higher dollar amounts.

I will concede I would have liked more term for the money thrown around, but this is the way contracts appear to be heading now and I think that mostly comes down to expectations of significant cap growth in the next 3-5 years.